prediction
He rejects near-term nuclear-use fears because, in his escalation model, secret and biochemical weapons have not appeared, so nuclear weapons are still several steps away.
Topic brief
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Biochemical Weapons
He rejects near-term nuclear-use fears because, in his escalation model, secret and biochemical weapons have not appeared, so nuclear weapons are still several steps away.
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Key Notes
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"...what you do next is use biological and chemical weapons. Okay? Biochemical weapons. Doesn't work either? Then, guys, nuclear weapons. All right? So what's..."
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Transcript
"Okay? Unless I see biochemical weapons being used, I refuse to believe that nuclear weapons is on the table. Okay? All right? So I..."
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"...escalation ladder. Because it doesn't have nuclear weapons. It doesn't have biochemical weapons. Okay? It doesn't have intercontinental missiles that it can target the..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A source-grounded reading of Jiang’s law of escalation: the actor with the biggest weapon can still lose if the weaker actor has calibration, legitimacy, options, and a way to make the bully destroy himself.
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