Aging crisis

Jiang's label for the demographic burden that will eventually pull working-age Chinese into taboo-bound elder care and weaken the labor base.

Japan is predicted to be the nation most likely to solve the generational-transfer problem within five to ten years because its aging problem is most urgent, though Jiang says it may be the only nation able to do so voluntarily.

Japan may be uniquely able to transfer power voluntarily from the elderly to the young because elderly Japanese have a stronger obligation to nation and people.

Jiang predicts massive remilitarization and social restructuring, with the aging crisis becoming a decisive test for Europe and East Asia; he provocatively identifies Japan as a possible first mover toward national euthanasia.

Jiang says Japan's aging crisis means it sees a decisive confrontation with China as a now-or-never five-year problem, because in twenty years it may lack the economy, population, and will to fight.

Jiang argues that Taiwan is existential for Japan because Chinese control would allow Beijing to choke Japanese access to trade and oil, while Japan's aging demography narrows the window in which it can still fight.

Jiang argues that Japan's aging crisis creates a shrinking window in which it could still project military force, making earlier conflict more plausible than later patience.

Jiang predicts Japan will emerge as the top dog in Southeast Asia because Japanese society can sacrifice collectively under crisis, even to the point of elder self-erasure for national survival.

Jiang identifies the demographic and aging crisis as China's biggest concrete vulnerability.