Jiang Xueqin: Chain Reaction Toward World War III Has Begun

Welcome! Today we are joined by Professor Zhang who is very famous for geopolitical forecasts based on game theory and not looking into a crystal ball but you know analyzes the structural forces and the interest of the various actors so making some very specific predictions as well for example the return of Trump, also the US Iran war in the second term of Trump. Anyways thank you so much for coming back on. Thanks Glenn. So I guess one of the darker predictions of yours is that we are now well on our way to World War III. I just wanted to ask why this is? What are you looking at? Is this possible triggers? Do you look at the chain reactions because well as we saw from the previous two world wars one thing tends to lead to another and one gets sucked in and there doesn't seem to be a reverse button at any point. So what

is it that you're assessing?

Okay so my first piece of evidence is the American national security strategy which was just published one or two weeks ago and it's very clear in that America maybe four years ago saw the world as possibly being organized and coordinated by multi -lateral organizations. What's important was for America to be the enforcer or the police officer to ensure that people abide by the rules -based national order and in this document Trump is very clear this order has dissipated it's gone and so now that the only thing that matters is national self -interest. So America needs to protect its own national self -interest not primarily means protecting the western hemisphere but it needs to protect its own national self -interest and that primarily means protecting the western hemisphere. What it calls a mineral doctrine there's something called a Trump corollary to the mineral doctrine which is to say that Trump will want to enforce the mineral doctrine.

So America believes that Russia and China have been encroaching too deeply into South America especially China which has a lot of trade investment agreements with South America to the benefit of the people there. But America has already always believed that South America is American territory and so now it will put a lot of pressure on South America to protect its territory and that's why we are seeing the escalation in Venezuela. We're seeing 10 percent of America's naval assets consolidate in the Caribbean and recently there's been an escalation. American forces have have basically stolen a Venezuela oil tanker and diverted it to Houston, Texas. So America by enforcing the mineral doctrine this means that America will now come into conflict with the entirety of South America. Because when America is now threatening Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, they all see their sovereignty being infringed upon. So that's one piece of evidence. The second piece of evidence is of course what's happening between Russia and Ukraine.

This war between Russia and Ukraine is essentially over. Russia is storming the battlefield. The morale in Ukraine has collapsed. There's about 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers who have deserted. There are millions who have fled abroad. So Ukraine doesn't have the manpower nor the resources nor the willpower to continue this fight. But at the same time, the Europeans insist that the Ukrainians continue to fight. So there's talk among the Europeans of confiscating, stealing those 210 billion Euros that it has from Russia's assets and getting it directly to Ukraine. It's given up this idea because they understand it's suicidal And so now they're about to give Ukraine 100 billion euros in interest -free loans to continue this war. And the reason why is that Europe needs to enter this war at some point. And it's afraid that if there's a peace treaty, then Russia will be able to consolidate its gains and then use Ukrainian resources to challenge European supremacy.

So that's a second major front. Then, of course, what we're seeing in the Middle East is a continuing escalation between Israel and Iran. So there was a peace treaty signed between Israel and different parties, Hamas, Hezbollah. It seems as though Israel has no respect for these treaties. It seems as though that Israel is planning to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon in the next two weeks. The Hamas peace treaty will not hold because Hamas will not... If Israel does not agree to give up all its arms because it does so, then it will be wiped out by these Israeli proxies. So the Middle East will only flare up. There was this shooting in America of this nuclear physicist. And then there was this tragedy on Bonny Beach in Sydney in Australia where 16 people died. And Israel is pinning the blame on Iran with absolutely no evidence.

There are these Mossad officers who've flown to Australia to participate in the invasion. There's this investigation. And we can suspect that they will blame Iran in some way for what has happened. So all around the world, we're seeing the potential for massive flare -ups in 2026.

Well, it seems like one of the major things which are changing, which you suggested as well, is the change of the entire world order, though. But usually a new world order would only consolidate itself after a world war. That is, if you have massive distribution of power. There's often a new world order. There's often little ability of the international system to reform itself. Usually we need a big war, and then a new status quo can be cemented in agreements. But this is such a critical time, it seems, because the whole world order after the Cold War, again, has been based on hegemony, dominance. And now, of course, that distribution of power is gone. It is a multipolar distribution of power. So it's very or near impossible to transition peacefully, though, because the old war, which was based on... I think it was the war of the US primacy, now needs to find a whole new system on a balance of power.

I mean, this changes absolutely everything. The rules of the games change, as you suggested. I mean, why did the USS... Now China and Russia can't be in its backyard, but the US, of course, can still be in the backyard of Russia and China. So there's no acceptable rules. The institutions will change. The security... Well, I mean, should it still be based only on deterrence and dominance? If there's no... Now, many centers of power, it doesn't really make sense how diplomacy is conducted. I just feel like this is a very difficult topic, but no one seemed willing to accept the reality or even discuss it. I mean, here in Europe, the overall sentimental narrative is that all was well and peaceful. Freedom and democracy was just spreading. And then, you know, evil showed up and usually has to be personified by Putin or Xi Jinping. And it has to be confronted, must be destroyed, and then peace somehow can return.

I mean, this is a very childish way of saying that they want hegemony back. And I guess I say childish because there's no strategy in terms of what they want to achieve, how they can achieve it, means that's required. It's just this emotional outburst and slogans about what is unjust. And as our hegemony was so virtuous, everyone was benefiting. But you see, this is a problem that we have. It's the inability of our actual political leaders to address the critical time we're at and why we need to essentially find a new status quo. Or is it the inability to let go of hegemon? Is it just that the rules are changing? I mean, how can we explain this?

Yeah, I completely agree with your assessment. So before this idea of the liberal rules -based natural order. It's basically these Western nations bullying. Exploiting and colonizing the rest of the world. So for 20 years, NATO was expanding into Russian sphere of influence. And for 20 years, Putin has been warning NATO, you have to stop. Otherwise, we have to react. We have to protect our sovereignty. And NATO refused to listen. NATO was extremely arrogant. And that force is put in his hand. Then China, for the longest time, was basically the factory to the world. And China agreed to produce really cheap products to the world, which increased people's standard of living. And that made Western consumers really happy. But then came the 2009 financial crisis. When basically because of circulation, because of stupid policymaking, because of greed, the Western economy collapsed. And so what happened was that the Western central banks demand that China invest in infrastructure.

And so for the next 10 years, China was digging itself into a hole with all this infrastructure spending. And eventually China decided we don't have enough resources to continue all this spending on infrastructure. And now the American economy has collapsed because these American consumers have maxed out their credit cards. The American consumers have been exploited for the past few decades. And they can no longer afford to spend any more money. So now what America demands is that Chinese consumers start spending money. Chinese consumers start maxing out their credit cards. And that China liberalize its financial markets. And China says we will not surrender our sovereignty. And so China has been bullied by America. Under the first Trump administration, they started to levy all these tariffs on China. And it's continued under the Trump administration. And America insisted on all these bullying tactics. For example, denying China access to technology, to markets. A few years ago, the Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, she was arrested transiting in Vancouver.

And she was put under detention for a number of years until she was finally let go. So for the longest time, America and its allies were able to bully the world. And over time, Russia and China have stood up. And Europe and America don't like that. And that's the world we live in today.

Well, I feel like we've watched this movie before to some extent. That is, before World War I, we saw with the rise of Germany that it effectively outgrew the British dominated system. So again, that shift of power. The British hegemony. Japan was declining. Germany as a regional power increased. So in 1871, for example, Britain produced twice as much steel as Germany, which was a good indicator of economic power. And 22 years later, by 1893, the German steel production had already then surpassed the British. And by the time World War I broke out in 1914, German steel production had doubled that of Britain. So that's a very short period of time. For the whole relationship to be put on its head. Now, you know, you can say power shifts up and down. But this is quite critical because the whole European security architecture then was still British dominated. So you have then Germany producing twice as much steel.

Yet all its major waterways that is outside, you know, internally in Germany are patrolled and controlled by the British. It's... It doesn't really make much sense. But it seems, you know, after World War II, we saw the same. The Germans outgrew the regional security architecture. And I was wondering, do you see these historical patterns? Because we have a similar thing now. I mean, the Chinese economy has been the biggest in the world in terms of purchasing power parity since 2014. While in Russia, we had... You know, after the Cold War, we decided let's develop a European security architecture where they wouldn't have a seat at the table. Because we thought they're weak. They're only going to get weaker. We're going to manage their decline. That would be the new Europe. So another Treaty of Versailles, essentially. But now we ended up in a situation where the Russians reversed. And now they have the largest state, the largest economy, territory, population, military.

Yet they're supposed to be the only country in Europe which doesn't have a seat at the table. So all these red flags should... Should be going up. I feel that this system is not going to produce stability but war. But yet again, we can't even discuss this. I mean, if you listen to the European politicians and their stenographers in the media, it's just, well, you know, we have freedom and democracy and Russia want empire. And then this is it. It's just a good old -fashioned good versus evil. I mean, it's quite extraordinary. But do you see a historical continuity on some other levels?

Look, I mean, for the past current years, Britain, Great Britain, has been the chief instigator of wars throughout the world. You know, you go back to World War I, and one of the great injustices of that war was that Germany was forced to accept all guilt for causing a war. When, in fact, you could argue that Britain had more to do with the cause of World War I than Germany did. And the reason why is that Britain subscribes to an idea called the Mackender -Hartland thesis. And the idea is that Britain is a small country with very little manpower, but it controls the seas. So in order to maintain its hegemony, it needs to create as much chaos and conflict within the Eurasian continent as much as possible. Because if a major power were to arise in the Eurasian continent, whether it be France or the Ottoman Empire or Germany or Russia, then it would unite the Eurasian continent by railway.

And it would negate sea trade. And so Britain would collapse economically, militarily. Demographically. And so for the past 200 years, Britain has been storing as much chaos as possible throughout the Eurasian continent. So you go back to the Napoleonic Wars, when Britain's sponsors financed seven major wars against France. Napoleon had basically conquered the continent by the Battle of Auschwitz. Austria and Russia were suddenly defeated. But Britain was still working behind the scenes, financing wars. Because Britain could not afford for France to consolidate Europe and create a continental system. Which is what Napoleon wanted. And then you fast forward to Germany in the same situation. So Britain cannot allow any power to emerge in Eurasia. And today, America subscribes to the same concept. Where, as you say, there's a parallel between what happened before World War I between Britain and Germany and now between China and America. Where China is a manufacturing superpower.

And it needs all these resources from South America. And South America has something called the lithium triangle. Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia. And that's about 50 % of the world's lithium. Which is crucial for EVs, for AI, for the future basically. And so China has been invested heavily in South America. Building roads, building infrastructure. There's this mega port that it's building in Peru to facilitate trade. And South America has been very receptive. And welcoming of Chinese investment. But America cannot allow China to continue to rise. And that's why America is going to use its sea power to disrupt global trade. So we've seen American troops boarding this Venezuelan oil tanker. But there was also this Chinese ship headed to Iran. And it was boarded as well. So this is this blatant piracy. America for the past 50 years says that we will defend global trade. And now America in order to defend its empire.

In order to weaken China and Russia. It's now resorting to global piracy basically.

What is interesting about the end of World War I though. Is every historian or more or less every historian recognizes. That the Treaty of Versailles put in place at the end of the war. Set us on a path to a second world war. Because it didn't create a sustainable place for Germany in the new Europe. However if you would say that Germany was provoked. To start World War II. Then you're a Nazi sympathizer. So it's very strange. You know it's more or less the same thing. But I think it speaks to the IAEA. To the mentality that if you recognize something. You acknowledge it. Then you legitimize it. It just feels like we're a little bit back there at the moment. Because the Russian invasion. It couldn't possibly be more provoked. This was provoked in every way. But and you can easily prove this. But you're not allowed to say it. Because then you're legitimizing the invasion.

And of course you have to be canceled immediately. But I thought the Eurasian heartland comment was interesting though. As you said it derives to some extent from the Napoleonic system. When they wanted to consolidate Europe. Cut off the British as a maritime power. And then that would destroy them. So this kind of made the British convinced. That you just have to keep the European powers divided. Of course 120 years ago. This came into a more cohesive theory. In terms of Mackinder. But in the 19th century. The British were fighting Russia. As a potential hegemon of Eurasia. And in the 20th century. The American security strategies. Also referred to the heartland theory. Because they saw. They also saw them as the maritime power. Versus the Russian land power. But today though. Eurasia is not hegemonic. And while the goal in the past. Was primarily to split the Russians from the Germans. You know always to push them out to Asia.

This is why we did the Crimean war. Against the Russians as well. In the mid 19th century. But now when you push Russia into Asia. It doesn't push it into an economic backwaters. It pushes it straight into. The arms of the most. The largest. Industrial power. And technological power now in the world. Which is China. At least one of the two. So it's. It's a very different setting. So how do you assess this new. New Eurasia. I mean one shouldn't overestimate. The ability of them to harmonize their interests. And work cohesively. But there is a commonality though. The Russians. The Chinese. The Indians. I mean the Iranians. Many of them have competing interests. But none of them wants to be dominated. By maritime power anymore.

Yeah I mean exactly. So you know. The McKender Harvin thesis. Is something that's described to both. By the American empire. As well as the British empire. And so what's happening. Is that because of American aggression. That because this system. This financial system. Where the US dollar. Is the world's reserve currency. Which gives America. Exorbitant privilege. Which is to say. And Iran. Into each other's arms. So the great nightmare. For the Anglo -American empire. Is an alliance between Russia. Iran. And China. And of course India will also. Come into this alliance. Eventually at some point. Because it benefits India. And this creates the Eurasian trade. Continental system. Right. So Russia has something called EMAC. The European India Middle East corridor. Russia has something called the North South corridor. China of course has a Belt and Road initiative. So Iran is the key. And that's why America is intent. On regime change in Iran. America cannot afford.

For this alliance to take shape. To benefit itself. Because then America would lose. Trade access in the Eurasian continent. China, Russia and Iran. Could just trade amongst themselves. And then provide. Energy and food. And manufactured goods. To the Middle East. To Africa. To Europe. And then America is just stuck. With 30 trillion dollars in debt. And the America policy scheme would collapse. So for this. This is a life and death struggle for America. So what it needs to do. Is go into Iran. And make sure this alliance cannot take shape. It doesn't have to win the war. But it needs to create as much chaos as possible. And that's why I think in 2026. We'll see an escalation. In rhetoric and conflict. Between America and Iran. With Israel of course. As the pit dog for the American empire.

It's funny when the complexity. Of this geopolitics. Has to be sold to the public. It's sold in the most absurd way. Such as well. We want to have more women rights. In Iran. Like this is. Apparently what drives. The great power rivalry. But to what extent.

Sorry. No I mean like you look at this Pawnee beach. Tragedy. Where 16 people were killed. And we know that the person who. Committed the crime. Was an Islamic State sympathizer. And already. They're pinning the blame on Iran. Why is Mossad involved. In this significant police investigation. I mean. This is a pretext. To create public anger at Iran.

Yeah. Well. A key problem as well. If you look at all of the previous. Two world wars. If you're going to look towards the. Well hopefully not the third one coming. It's also been the assumption. That the wars could be limited. Again by definition. They had this chain reaction. That you know one thing led to another. I mean. The causality. I would use World War One as an example. This leads to this. You know nobody wanted to go down this path. But much of it seems to be based. On the premise that. They're able to limit the wars. In other words. It's this illusion of escalation control. You know we see some indications of this in Europe today. That is the Europeans say. Oh we can send some troops to Ukraine. The idea is we can just tip the scales a bit. Towards Ukraine's favor. To rebalance it. Towards the front lines. So we can keep the war going.

But. It seems like. The delusion. The fact that they will be able to control this. And somehow that the Russian responses. To Europeans entering the battlefield. And then let's just contain the war. To Ukraine and Russia. You know Europe should not. Be a part of this war. We're just sending troops and weapons. And you know the targeting. But how do you see this. In a historical context. And what we're seeing in the world today though. I know that's a very big question. Look.

It's a common pattern in history. Where all wars started out. As limited wars. Where one party is trying to achieve. Certain strategic objectives. And it always escalates. Into a full scale war. Beyond anyone's control. There's the idea of mission creeps. So think about Vietnam. Where at first. America was just sending in some advisors. Or trainers. Into Vietnam. To bolster the South Vietnamese regime. And eventually. It escalated to the point where. The entire American military was involved. In a full scale war in Vietnam. So I think. One major flash point that we should look at. Is Venezuela. Because Trump is very clear. Trump is saying that I'm not going to declare war. This is just an operation. To destroy drug cartels. Because Maduro. He is a drug kingpin. And we will. We are trying to save. As many American lives as possible. So that's just the rhetoric. For public consumption. We all know that. Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves.

And Trump is trying to. Create. Make Venezuela into an economic vassal. So I think. This war will be. Only to Venezuela. And America. But this war has the potential. To escalate very quickly. Because Cuba and Nicaragua. Would be on the next hit list. After Venezuela. Also if you are Brazil. You would think that. The real target is you. Because what happened was that. Before the trade war between China and America. America was providing China. Soybeans. And China imports a third of its food. And it gets. It used to get most of its soybeans. From American farmers. And because of the trade war. China started to import soybeans from Brazil. And ever since then. The economic relationship. Between Brazil and China. Has only improved dramatically. And so China right now. Is Brazil's biggest trade partner. And this is true for every nation. In South America. So if you are a South American nation.

First of all. You are outraged at the fact that. Trump is trying to. Conduct regime change in Venezuela. You don't like the Yankees. You've had this long history. Where the CIA plots coups in your nation. Killing millions of people. You also want to maintain. Good relations with China. Because China actually puts real. Investment in your country. They build roads. They build good infrastructure. They build livelihood. Of your ordinary citizens. And America wants to take that away. So this war could escalate to a point. Where okay. Maybe American ground troops in Venezuela. But Brazil and other nations. Convertly send troops to reinforce. The Venezuelan regime. Because they know that if Venezuela falls. They all fall together. So it's a lake of gasoline. Right now.

Well yeah. I think obviously. It's time to restore its dominance. In Latin America. It fits within this shift of power. As well because they. If it's a multipolar world. The main priority then should be. That is this rival great powers. You want to control your own backyard. And of course a lot of these countries. Have very bad history with the US. Well dominating them. But so you can see how this could. Spiral out of control. And indeed why. Countries like China Russia. They have a lot of interest. And relationships there. But you see the. Because you mentioned. The possible war now. Against Iran as well. To knock out this central piece. In this new Eurasian constellation. But what is. Did you see this. A similar path there. In terms of the. That war spreading. Getting out of control. Because. When everyone wants to sell these wars. It's always so nice and limited. We just want to get rid of a narco cartel.

Everybody wins. It's a positive sum game. In the Middle East. We just want to deliver some freedoms. And prevent them from getting nuclear weapons. Who would oppose us. By nature if you want to sell a war. It has to be benign. So you don't see. You delude yourself as to some extent. In terms of. Power is being pulled into an Iran war.

Well I mean. The reality is that China gets most of its oil. From the Middle East. So if there's a war. The ship of humus would be closed down. And that would create economic chaos. Throughout the world. Especially Southeast Asia. South Korea, Japan and China. Which depend on most of its oil. From the Middle East. And Ukraine is not that far away. So I mean. It's possible we have. I'm just hypothesizing. I'm just showing you how. All these things are interrelated. So America is bogged down. In Venezuela. And Israel attacks Iran. Iran to defend its interests. Will shut down the ship of humus. And then America will send in ground troops. To reopen the ship of humus. Russia helps Iran. By pushing to Odessa. Which forces the Europeans. To defend Odessa. Basically. The European nations. Have to go full adult. Male conscription. To defend Odessa. They don't have enough manpower. As it is. Maybe Japan and China start.

To exchange heated rhetoric. So the world is interconnected. And it could be a situation. Where one flare up. In one part of the world. Escalates to other parts of the world.

But. In terms of the main two. Economic players though. One often look at. The whole idea of two serious trap. That is to assess. The more likely conflict. Between the US and China. That is I think the pathway. To World War 3. Between NATO and Russia. Is well underway. But given that the main. Shift in international system. Is the US hegemon. Having disappeared. No longer has a. Comfortable seat at the throne anymore. It is not the Russians. They are not that powerful. Indeed as the new security strategy. Suggests the Russians. Shouldn't be considered a threat to the US. The main. I have to use the word threat. But at least challenge to US primacy. Obviously is China. Now this is why also. The new nationalism emerging in the US. Suggests that everything. Was going from strength to strength. Who took it away from us. It was China. This is where the. Ugly nationalism come from.

But how do you see this. Playing out. Because a key concern now in the US. Is that they can't compete anymore. With China economically. They do have the superior army. Or the military. Do you see too many incentives now. To transition. Or escalate from an economic war. To a military conflict. How do you see. The possibility now. Of this being. Well if not a trigger. A big part of. Coming World War 3.

Look the national security strategy. Is very clear about China. The goal. The long term goal. Is to strangle China. Because China depends on. Trade for its resources. Right so the idea of. The Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. Is to cut off China from. To cut China trade off from South America. Right so now. You have all these American warships. Attrolling the South American waters. And so China will not be able to extract. Copper and lithium it needs. For its AI. And EV industries. It will no longer be able to. Import food and oil from South America. So that's part one. But even in Africa. Trump and America will challenge China. And for the past few decades. Investing very heavily in Africa. Building infrastructure. Creating good relations with African nations. China has a solid relationship. With many African nations. But in this national security strategy document. It says very clearly that. America will now. Work with its European.

And Japanese allies. In order to help. Build up Africa. Because Africa is the future. If you look at demographics. It is the fastest growing continent. So. And the national security strategy. Says very clearly that before. America was too focused on ideology. On spreading liberalism and democracy. And now it's purely self interest. Purely economics. So basically doing what China does. But America says that. Well we have better products. And we will use the full resources. Of our allies. So basically to counter China. First of all what America will do. Economically. So cutting off trade. That's number one. Number two is that it's going to see. The resources of its allies. Mainly Japan and South Korea. As their own. It's going to see the wealth of Japan. As something that is a negative tool. For America to use against China. And the third thing that America is going to do. Is promote divide and rule.

Where it may back off militarily. In Southeast Asia. But it's going to encourage Japan. To create greater conflict with China. And we're already seeing that. Where for the past few weeks. China and Japan have had. A bitter exchange of rhetoric. And we can expect. A greater escalation of that. In the next few months.

That's a very unfortunate message. To send to China. That is if China wants to continue. To have trade with the world. Then it better build itself. A very powerful military. To be able to actually defend. The partnerships from the US. So you can well again. This is another comparison. With the first world war and second. That is you have this rising. Industrial powers competing. And then of course unavoidably. Almost military. The military as an instrument. Will join in on the mix. But your point there though. Is interesting. Because if the US just wanted to deter. And have stability. Then its own army would be on the front line. Of course credibility. I mean if you want deterrence. You need to have that clear credibility. Capability and communication. But if you want to go into a hot war. You don't want to be on the front line. You want a proxy. You want to send in the Kurds.

To fight the Iraqis. You want to use the Ukrainians. To weaken the Russians. And I guess you want to throw in the Japanese. To fight the Chinese. But is this what you're seeing? You see this other places as well?

This is what the British did. This is just divide and rule. This is what the empires have been doing. For centuries. So yeah. Japan and South Korea will now be. The cannon fodder. In this great struggle. Between China and America. And we're already seeing that. And unfortunately. Because you have tens of thousands of American troops. In Japan and South Korea. And because the leadership class. The elite have been co -opted. A long long time ago. They're basically all side assets at this point. Then Japan and South Korea. Will just do what they're told. By the Americans.

I wanted to ask you about the. Domestic component as well. In this. As one heads towards World War 3. That is. As we've seen in the past. When a hegemon declines. Or any great power declines. It also manifests itself in domestic problems. That is. It's not just one unified entity of power. It has that domestic component. So once you have the decline. You also see economic inequalities. Shifts in the demographics. Social fragmentation. Political polarization. The legitimacy of the government. Among the public. Which is not performing. And often we see. That war becomes kind of the solution. To hold this construct together. Do you see the same? Or how do you explain. Or do you factor in this dynamic. Into your assessment. What happens with the states themselves. Because if you look at Europe. And the US today. It's not the US and Europe of 20 years ago. The quality of leadership. The way they talk about the world.

The priorities they make. I don't hear any European leaders today. Talk about peace. They don't talk about diplomacy. The need to avoid war. Everything is about. If to prepare to sacrifice. Our sons and daughters. To fight the new. Great Satan. This is our political leadership. This doesn't happen out of nowhere. This seems to be part of the decline. Do you factor this in?

Yeah absolutely. You're absolutely right. Arthur Spengler. He had a checklist for. How do you know a society is in decline. When he means decline. He means deathbed. They're organic. They're organisms. They're born. They mature. They die. When they die. They scatter. What's happening in the west. It's not decline. Maybe a few decades from now. They'll reemerge. No. It's like the deathbed. Let's go over the checklist. Number one is. Over urbanization. Where everyone from the countryside. Flocks to the city. And you have these mega cities. Right now in the western world. That's a problem because. These cities are parasitic. They are places where people engage in luxury. In decadence. In corruption. They actually don't produce anything of value. So that's problem number one. Problem number two is. People refuse to have children. They don't have a future for their children. So they refuse to have children. That's problem number two. So you have demographic collapse. Problem number three of course.

Is massive inequality. Where you have 1%. Even less than 1 % actually. Maybe 0.1%. Who control all the resources. So in America right now. You have maybe a few billionaires. Who are able to buy all the assets. So you look at someone like Larry Ellison. Who's able to buy TikTok. Who's able to control all the media resources. In America. So you have this massive inequality. Number four is that when you fight wars. You get missionaries. Or barbarians to fight them for you. So I'm not sure. When was the last time America fought a war. And it actually used its own troops. Maybe 2003 against Iraq. But you look at Libya and Syria. Who is using these proxies. To fight these wars. And the same thing is happening in Ukraine. Where America is using Ukrainians. To fight these wars. But the Americans themselves. Are actually not that involved. Number five is just general decadence.

Where you know. You have like OnlyFans. Where maybe 10 or 20%. Of young white American women. Are on OnlyFans. And I mean that's a sign of. Civilizational death. If anything right. I mean you have these young girls. Who are trying to sell their bodies. And it's all legal. So there's all these signs. Of just civilization decline. And collapse. Throughout the western world. You also have massive immigration. Because no one wants to work. It's not because you know. I mean like listen. You have this massive immigration. Because Americans are used to cheap labor. And most Americans don't want to be slaves. So they have to bring in these immigrants. And that's causing the collapse of social cohesion. So we hear on and on. About all these ailments. In the western world. And you know wars aren't going to solve it. Because these young people. Are not going to fight a pointless war. Overseas right.

So Germany has announced. That they're considering the conscription. And young people have said. We'd rather be ruled by Putin. If you give a choice. Whether to fight a war. Have Putin be our emperor. We prefer to have Putin as our emperor. We're happy with Putin as our emperor. He's probably better than MERS. So I'm not sure how you can get these young people. To fight this war. And the entire point. Of western civilization now is. That you don't have to work. And you can enjoy a good life. That's the message for the past few decades. You know this toxic. Promotion of individual. Decadence. And. And just glorifying individuality. So I mean. Like the idea that. All these young people. To go die off in Ukraine. Or in Iran or Venezuela. It's kind of silly.

Well it does seem that part of the strength. Of western civilization in the past. Was the youthfulness. The being vibrant and open. Because any civilization can. Make mistakes. But it's this openness. To air out your mistakes. To address them. To fix. To try out new things. And I think. Part of it seems to be exacerbated. By this propaganda. Which intensifies. You can put it into the category. Of a psyop as well. Because if you want to identify a nice psyop. It would be when people begin to fear. What they should say. Not based on what's true or not. But just what you know. You're not allowed to say. People begin to police each other. You have this atmosphere of fear. Because you know. You're not quite sure. What views are acceptable. How you might be punished. If your statements you made in the past. Can be used against you. Social exclusion. Go after reputation. Ridicule.

If the fear for your professional life. Your personal life. This is life in the west now. Whether you discuss immigration. Gender. Foreign policy. You should be very careful. We're liberal democracies. You're allowed to say what you want. But the main strength. That is the renewal. The rebirth. That is to address your mistakes. And recover. I don't really see that anymore. At all. I lived in Europe. Until the end of the 90s. And I left for 20 years. And came back. This place is not recognizable anymore. This is a very different place now. I'm not sure if you see the same. I guess aging. At least the west has exited its youth. It seems.

Well I mean. I was in Canada for two months. This summer. And I was shocked by. How much rapidly. Canada has declined. Over the years. I mean it doesn't seem as though people want to do any work. As you say. They're low energy. They're quitting. The term is quite quitting. On the problem of fear. And intimidation. Listen. America just announced a policy where they're considering. If you want to visit the United States. You have to list five years of your social media. Right. And I mean listen. Everyone knows what this is about. Right. Because everyone knows that. This is directed at people who criticize Israel. Right. So if you have. In the past year or two. You have spoken up. Against genocide in Palestine. Your name. Or your profile. Is now stored on a database. You may not know this. But it certainly is. And if you were to go to America. They will now have your biometric data.

Right. And now they can just cross reference everything together. That's how scary things are. Before you thought you were doing. Anonymously online. But you know. Once you visit America. You give them a social media handle. And they have biometrics. Now they can put a profile on you. And they can track you for the rest of your life. It's that scary today.

Let me just ask a last question. Because I appreciate your warning signs. Of where we are probably heading. I mean I always make the point. In Europe. I think a greater war now. Is more likely than not. But. What is then. How do you identify the core. The source of these problems. Is it arrogance. Hubris. Stupidity. What would be the solution here. If there is a solution to the path. Or a domino effect. We're currently in the middle of.

So I study history. And it's a pretty strong pattern. Where empires rise. Because they're young. They're energetic. They're cohesive. They're open. And then they peak as an empire. And they become arrogant. They become insular. They become close minded. They're defeated by hubris. And then they decline. And then the empire dies. It's a pretty common pattern. We don't have an example. Where an empire declined. But then it reemerged. Some people say that. You know. Rome reemerged as a bison empire. But that's not true. The bison empire and the roman empire. Are two different entities all together. So what's happening in America. What's happening in western world. It's just part of the natural process. Of being human. The problem though of course. Is that an empire refuses. To. To emit its mortality. The empire refuses to die. You've got all these billionaires in America. Who are spending all their money. Trying to live forever. And that's just the hubris of those in power.

And unfortunately. This is what the Greeks taught us. That hubris is the greatest evil in the world. It leads us into insanity. And that's why we're living in the world. That we live in today.

That goes from the poem of Eliot. The hollow man. The way the world ends. Is not with a bang. The best we can hope for then. That it doesn't go out with a bang. That we go out the soviet way. That is just a. Slow. Sad collapse. And hope that something new emerges in its place.

Look I mean. America. Look America in its national security strategy. It is very clear and blatant. That America will defend its empire. To its dying breath. And America is not retreating from the world. It's going to fight everywhere in the world. It's going to use allies as proxies. It's going to. Use its allies. As cannon fodder. Use all the resources of its allies. It's going to divide and rule. So before. America was willing to be hypocritical. It was willing to use this. Rules based on national order. As a facade in which to project power. And now this facade has dissipated. Because people recognize the hypocrisy of the entire system. So America is just like. Okay now we'll just use force. We'll just be pirates. We'll just be the mafia. And so at the same time. The reality is that America. Is the world's greatest empire. We've never had an empire. That's been able to control the entire world.

And have the technological. Economic. Military sophistication that America has. So this death will not be pretty. And you know. If we die of a whimper. That would be a very good death. And I think that. This conflict may rage around the world. For the next 10 -20 years. And this is the reality. That we're heading towards. So the idea of like you know. Maybe Trump and Putin will get together. And sign a peace treaty. And we'll go back to 2020. No that's gone. We're in a brave new world. And we're never going back. This is the undiscovered country. And this is something that we all have to brace for.

I think that's another weakness. The assumption that. We'll go all the way on this one. Try to break the Russians. If for some reason it wouldn't work. We can go back to the way things were. Again this goes into the whole. Escalation control delusion. I don't think these people know. Exactly what they have started. But sadly. I think they will find out. But as always. I hope you're wrong. But I suspect you are very correct. In your assessment. I hope I'm wrong too.

I think. I would love for me. To come back a year from now. And like you know. Putin and Trump have a peace treaty. The world is at peace again. I'm so sorry I was wrong. And I'll never ever appear on the internet again. Because I'd rather spend time with my kids. I would like that. Anyways thanks a lot for your time. Okay thank you.