---
title: "Professor Jiang Xueqin: The World Is About to Change transcript"
description: "Source-synced transcript archive for Professor Jiang Xueqin: The World Is About to Change."
source_title: "Professor Jiang Xueqin: The World Is About to Change"
published_at: "2025-10-30"
source_class: "interview"
public_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/transcript/"
markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/transcript.md"
text_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/transcript.txt"
source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRk5VSEzJ4Y"
data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y.json"
---

# Professor Jiang Xueqin: The World Is About to Change transcript

- Source: [Professor Jiang Xueqin: The World Is About to Change](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRk5VSEzJ4Y)
- Published: 2025-10-30, day precision
- Human transcript page: [/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/transcript/)
- Interview page: [/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/)
- Transcript Markdown: [/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/transcript.md)
- Transcript text: [/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y/transcript.txt)
- Interview JSON: [/data/lens/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-xrk5vsezj4y.json)

## Transcript

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I see geopolitics as a game among different players. These players have their own strategies, have their own interests, and they're trying to optimize the outcome using their strategies. You know, if you look at Putin and Trump together, it's clear that the two are good friends. You know, this interpersonal relationship between Trump and President Xi is very important. And I think that once the two meet and once the two start, you know, being friends again, then I think we will see a rapprochement. I'm really optimistic about the China -U.S. relationship because I think that Trump and President Xi are great friends and eventually they will come to a resolution that benefits both countries.

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This is Professor Jiang Xueqin, one of the fastest growing geopolitical YouTubers on the platform. Professor Jiang uses game theory to predict the future of world conflicts and gained enormous popularity earlier this year when he correctly predicted the United States would bomb Iran. In today's episode, we discuss whether the United States would bomb Iran or whether the Middle East is the center of global conflict, how using game theory explains exactly why Russia invaded Ukraine, and why using the same game theory logic, we can predict that China will not be invading Taiwan. If you've ever wanted to understand the logic behind great power competition, this episode will open your eyes to why there is so much conflict in the world and how we can prepare for the future. Let's dive in. Well, everyone, I'm very honored to welcome into the studio today Professor Jiang Xueqin from Beijing. Professor Jiang, you have been one of the fastest growing channels on YouTube, an incredible geopolitical insider, obviously a professor there in Beijing.

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Professor, welcome to the show tonight.

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Thanks so much for inviting me, Cyrus.

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Absolutely, absolutely. Well, Professor, you know, I think what a lot of people have really taken notice on your YouTube channel is really started to gain a lot of momentum, you know, right around the time that the United States attacked Iran. And you have some very amazing videos, you know, that you're using game theory to predict, you know, the future of geopolitics. I'd love for you to just explain that to our audience and, you know, a little bit more about your theory and how you're using this to, you know, analyze what's going on, but also to predict the future.

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I see geopolitics as a game among different players. These players have their own strategies, have their own interests, and they're trying to optimize the outcome using their strategies. If you just look at the Middle East, you look at Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, United States, Turkey, these are the major players. And each side is trying to seek leverage over the other side. So by studying each nation's history, their internal politics, and what they believe is the best outcome for them, then you can basically predict their behavior. And that's what I've been doing for the past couple of years. And that's why I was able to predict that the United States would attack Iran.

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That was an amazing time to see that, you know, that the United States would attack Iran. How are you looking right now with the situation in the Middle East, you know, as far as the, this new peace deal, you know, that's going to be between Israel and Hamas. I'd like to get your thoughts on that, because I think this is a much complicated issue. Obviously, Donald Trump saying, look, I've solved another war, eight wars in eight months. I'm the peace president. How are you analyzing that?

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Trump is known for overstatement, right? He said that he's achieved Middle East peace for the first time in 3,000 years or 500 years, depending on, you know, his mood. So quite the accomplishment. The reality is that the Middle East has been at war for thousands of years. And there's some particular reasons why. Okay. The first major reason is that it is the hub of global trade. You get anywhere around the world. You have to go through the Middle East. In ancient times, the Levant was where control access Anatolia to Egypt, to Mesopotamia, the three wealthiest areas in the world at that time. And today it's still true. So you look at the Middle East, it's it controls access to China's Belt and Road initiative, right? So China is very interested in the Middle East. Europe has, something called the European India, Middle East corridor, Russia has something called the North -South corridor. So all the major trade routes run through the Middle East.

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So whoever controls that area is able to control trade and collect taxes and levies. The other issue today, of course, is oil. China, East Asia receives most of its oil from the Middle East. If there was a war to break out in the Middle East, then these Asian economies would suffer a great deal. And the last ingredient, is eschatological religion. Three of the world's major religions, Christianity, Judaism, Islam, all focus in the Middle East. There are many extremist elements within these traditions who believe that the, that World War Three will break out in the Middle East. And this will cause the return of Jesus or the arrival of the Messiah or the creation of a world government, depending on your eschatology. But these religious traditions believe that the Middle East is the heart and center of their religious worldview. And in many ways for them, um, they have a mission to achieve the biblical prophecy.

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So the Middle East is from the center of global conflict for the next 10, 20 years because of these three reasons. One because it's a center of global trade because of oil and because of eschatology.

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So do you think that right now, what do you know, what, how do you predict the future with, I say Israel and Hamas? I mean, do you think that this will be a, you know, as far as right now we're seeing that there is some peace in the region. I mean, you know, I mean the hostages have been returned, you know, there's speculation that there's going to be a new government coming to rule Palestine. I mean, obviously Donald Trump has a very big plan that potentially includes lucrative investments and really changing that entire area. Do you think that that's any possibility for that? Or do you still think there's just going to be a lot more continuous conflict like you just said?

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I think everyone hopes that the peace will be sustained and prolonged because the past students have suffered so much these past couple of years. Um, you've had systematic starvation. I mean, the people have suffered so much, especially the children. So I think everyone is praying for peace. Uh, we're all hoping that this, this deal will be lasting. But look, the reality is for these past two years, there's been, this is a, this is a third ceasefire. Okay. This is a third ceasefire. Uh, Israel has never had any intentions of maintaining peace because their society right now, it's fractured. Uh, remember that before October 7th, Israel was on the break of civil war. Now Yahoo wanted to reform the judiciary. There were these protests involving hundreds of thousands of people calling, calling for his overthrow. Uh, there's talk that if the war is stopped, there's peace now Yahoo will be charged with corruption. He'll go to prison.

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Look, the reality is that Israel cannot afford a peace, uh, especially on Yahoo. Um, and what's even worse is that after each ceasefire, Israel has devastated Gaza to an even more extreme. If you just look, look at the history, just look at game theory. There's very, very little hope that this piece will last much longer. And in fact, quite honestly, uh, the conditions are already set for Israel to resume strikes because one important ingredient of this peace agreement is that Hamas surrendered all its arms. And that's, we never do that. That, that's just, that's just, that was insane. So, so I don't know how much longer this piece will last. I mean, hopefully another few more months. Um, you know, it's very important for these a trucks to get into Gaza and make sure that people are well have, have enough to eat. Um, but the reality is, is that there are many extremist

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elements in the IDF that do not want to see peace and they want to see this war to as well as a conclusion, which is the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.

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Yeah. I think that's, um, an unfortunate reality of the situation. I mean, we've, this has been well documented with Netanyahu. Certainly we're not wanting to prolong that war because he is facing those corruption charges. Even many people speculating that, you know, he knew, uh, that October 7th was going to happen. Uh, obviously Israel has an incredible defense system. So many people are questioning, what could they not have predicted this or seen this attack? How many, many people speculating that, you know, potentially even Netanyahu let it happen because this again, allowed him to continue this war and certainly take away from the distraction of the corruption charges and potential imprisonment for him. So it's a situation we're definitely going to have to keep looking at professor. I want to go to the most important, uh, you know, probably conflict that we've seen, you know, in the recent years, this is of course, Russia, Ukraine, and how this has certainly influenced Europe.

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We've seen the United States obviously has been dragged in. I mean, it has been the number one supporter of NATO. We've seen an interesting dynamic with Trump recently, you know, now saying that Europe you're on your own, you know, you're going to have to continue to fund this war. You know, give me your thoughts on Russia, Ukraine. And I mean, feel free to go back as far as you want, but I'd like to understand a little bit more of this con conflict, you know, through your eyes and through game theory.

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Yeah. So according to game theory, Russia had no choice, but to invade Ukraine, Ukraine in 2022. And the reason why is NATO expansion, right? So NATO was essentially encircling, Russia, Ukraine was a, was a red lap line. And I think that Russia was extremely patient with NATO for many years. But the final step was the 2014 mining coup when the government of Ukraine was overthrown by CIA backed coup. And you have these belligerents in the Donetsk region who are trying to ethnic clans, cleanse Russians from that area. And so Putin has expressed it, very clearly, he went into Ukraine to defend ethnic Russians who were, who were crying for help. And if you look at what's happening in Ukraine, most of the front front line fighters are ethnic Russians who lived in Ukraine, all their lives. And so they're fighting really for the safety and security of their families. So that's something that we have to remember, that Russia was really provoked into this war by NATO.

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We also need to remember that really Russia has been fighting NATO all this time. I mean, I mean, the troops are Ukrainian, but look at this. The financing is NATO. The technology is NATO. Special forces, NATO. Command and control, NATO. Targeting, NATO. When a bridge is blown up in Crimea, that's not Ukrainians. They don't have the technology. They don't have the expertise. It's NATO that's doing this. When the North Stream pipeline was blown up, that was not the Ukrainians. I mean, the Ukrainians got the blame for it, but that was certainly not the Ukrainians. So for the past few years, Russia has been fighting NATO all this time. And if you just look at what's happening in Ukraine, Russia is winning this war. And it's showing that NATO is really a paper tiger. And I think a lot of it is just that Russians are fighting for their civilization.

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Russians are fighting for their homeland, for the motherland. And NATO has become this overreaching bureaucracy. And it's not very popular even in Europe. So what's happening between Trump and NATO? I think it's very simple. I think that the empire is in danger. It's in danger. America has $37 trillion in debt, and it can no longer finance these wars. So it wants NATO to fight these wars on its behalf. Another way of saying this is that what we've seen is that America has quickly devolved these past few years into a mafia state. It's a mafia empire. And the way that mafia works is it extorts its allies. You know, J.D. Vance goes to Europe and he says, hey, guys, you're going to have to start doing real work. You know, we the Americans are sick of, you know, saving your ass all this time. And that's just the attitude of Trump.

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And that's what he's saying. So it's not like this war in Ukraine is going to end. It's just that these European countries are supposed to now foot the bill. They're supposed to pay at least 3 percent of their GDP. They have to buy all these expensive weapons from America. Eventually, they'll have to draft troops and send them off to Ukraine to die. Now, it's really important to remember is that at the end of the day, this war is hopeless and it's pointless. You cannot possibly beat Russia in the battlefield against Ukraine. Ukraine has too many advantages. And ultimately, at the end of the day, Russia has nuclear weapons. So you can't push Russia too far. And it's pointless because Russia has no intention of threatening Europe. Russia just wants to maintain its security. So why are you sending Europeans to die off in Ukraine for no particular purpose? And I think that this is going to cause tremendous political dissent within Europe.

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It's possible that in five years you'll have major civil clashes throughout Europe because NATO is trying to draft soldiers. And the young European man refused to do so.

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Yeah. Oh, I can definitely see the future of that because, ironically, I'm here in the United States and we're actually living very close to a U.S. Army base here. And actually, I've talked to many people in the area. And one thing I always hear is that Ukraine is the actual best case scenario for us because we get to fight Russia and we don't risk any U.S. lives. No troops on the ground. We're the United States. So it's the best case. And I always kind of counter that question. I say, well, what about the Ukrainians? What about these people that are risking their lives and losing their lives and actually getting slaughtered? And young men having to leave at a very young age, I believe it was the United States or maybe another European ally who had actually asked Zelensky to lower the age of the enlisted soldiers, saying, you know, I think you

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need to go from 21 down to 20, you know, to get more soldiers in there to fight this war. So, I mean, it's a very hard thing to, in one sense, to be in the United States and hear, oh, this is a great thing for America because we get to fight Russia, you know, without risking our lives, but then, you know, not really think about the Ukrainian lives and also the Russian lives that are being lost. I mean, I think you really hit the nail on the head there. This is a pointless and useless war.

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Look, look, I mean, like Ukraine has no future. Ukraine is finished as a nation. OK, so let's go over the reasons why. The first is the number of casualties on the Ukrainian side. Like the estimates are between one or two million men. That's the future of Ukraine. Second is that you've got millions of these Ukrainians who have fled the country as refugees. They've sought refuge in Western countries and they're not going back because there's no future for them. Right. And the third thing is that so Ukraine is divided into Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine is historically Russian. Western Ukraine is traditionally Poland. And the reality is that Putin is only interested in Eastern Ukraine because it's definitely Russian, but also because that's where all the resources and agriculture are. You know, if Russia is able to control it and control Donetsk, then the war is over because Western Ukraine is not sustainable. It doesn't have its own agricultural and industrial resources.

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And what will end up happening is that Western Ukraine will become a welfare state for the Europeans. I hate to say this, but the Europeans really sacrificed Ukraine with this war. Ukraine, by by choosing to fight Russia, it's basically doomed itself as a nation.

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I think you're spot on with this analysis. Professor, in regards to what we hear in mainstream media and what we've certainly heard from the U.S. government is, for example, this domino theory very much that actually that Putin has much greater plans, you know, if Ukraine falls, that's the first country, you know, Western Europe is going to fall. And I think this is almost similar to the Vietnam Vietnam War, where the U.S. government had preached, you know, if Vietnam remains communist, you know, one by one, you're going to see communism spread throughout Asia. Of course, we never saw that happen. And that was certainly manufacturing consent for the Americans to go into Vietnam. Do you see this? I mean, analyze these these comments from the U.S. government. Is this is this just them trying to sell this war and manufacture consent to Westerners? Look, look, let's look at the facts.

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OK, sure. First act is that when the Soviet Union fell, when the Berlin Wall fell, the Americans gave the Russians assurances that NATO won't expand, that NATO won't take advantage of the fall of the Soviet Union to expand throughout Europe, America has broken these promises. That's fact number one, fact number two, multiple times. Fact number two is that Putin has made multiple overtures to join NATO. Putin said to multiple American presidents, you know, if NATO is a defensive alliance, if it's an alliance based on peace, then Russia wants to be part of that. And then whatever conflicts that will arise, we'll just settle it within NATO. He was constantly buffed by these U.S. presidents. OK, that's a second fact. The third fact is the relentless expansion of NATO. NATO already has 32 members, even though the Soviet Union had failed a long time ago. NATO already has 32 members. And now with Moldova, they've become the 33rd member.

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OK, so. So these are three facts that we're faced with that throughout these past 20, 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO has been relentlessly expanding towards Russia's sphere of influence. And Russia has been extremely tolerant. You see what's happening in Russia's southern flag, right? Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. It seems as though NATO is intent on encircling Russia. Just to protect its own sovereignty, just to protect its sphere of influence, just to protect its own internal cohesion, then Russia had to act.

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That makes complete sense. How do you see this war between Russia and Ukraine ending? I mean, do you see it ending anytime soon? I think the data, as you've mentioned already and as many military analysts have now seen, is that Russia is winning the battle. I mean, it is a war of attrition right now. And so, again, if you just simply take your emotion away from this and look at the reality, look at numbers. You know, obviously, it's a lot of casualties and a lot of wasted resources. But, you know, Russia does have the upper hand. Do you see this as a conflict that President Trump, you know, is going to try to, I mean, he famously said, by day one, I'm going to be able to end this war. Obviously, that hasn't happened. Do you see this a conclusion within the next six months, year? Is this going to be another forever war? What is your thoughts on that?

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I think you've talked to most military analysts. As you say, the war is lost. Russia has been able to establish battlefield dominance. That's air superiority. Its soldiers are extremely well -disciplined. They have high morale. They're very innovative. If you just go and look at online videos of interviews of these frontline soldiers in Russia. I mean, they are extremely disciplined. They want to see this thing to the finish and they're highly motivated. And it's the complete opposite for the Ukrainians. The decision rate among the Ukrainians, it's very, very high. And so at this point, I think that what's best for Ukraine is to cut your losses. Unfortunately, in geopolitics and especially in game theory, there's something called a sunk cost fallacy, right? So you go to the casino, you know, you win $100,000 and you feel great. At the end of the night, you lose a million dollars. You can't leave now because of sunk cost fallacy.

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You have to get it back. So that's the situation the Europeans are facing. They've stuck in billions of dollars of dollars in Ukraine. Ukraine has promised the Europeans, especially the British, all these rare earth minerals, all this wealth untapped in Ukraine. It would be a complete loss of face if if NATO were to surrender right now. So because of sunk cost fallacy, unfortunately, we can expect that this war will drag on. Now, what's really important to understand is that the Russians, even though they're winning this war, they fight it really slowly because the Russians use trench artillery warfare, so you have to move these artillery pieces into place. But also, you know, what you don't really understand is Russia is trying to minimize both civilian casualties as well as their own troop casualties. They're trying to cause as little damage to the critical civilian infrastructure as much as possible, because at the end

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of the day, they still believe that this is part of the Russian homeland and they want people to move back and rebuild their lives in this area. They have to make this livable. So Russia faces a governance problem after this war ends. And that's why Russia has been extremely strategic, methodical and slow in the process. But unfortunately, this gives time for the Ukrainians and for NATO to regroup. And so what I think is going to happen is that Russia will slowly advance. Putin will constantly call for peace, call for an end to the slaughter. Trump will also call for an end to the slaughter. But because of some cause fallacy, because the Europeans have basically deluded themselves that this war is still winnable, then they will reestablish new front lines. And I think that the final battle will take place in Odessa. I think the fate of Ukraine will be decided in Odessa. Putin and his generals have already stated that Odessa is the end goal.

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Once they have Odessa, they have control of eastern Ukraine. Ukraine becomes landlocked and Russia will be able to control the Black Sea access. So Odessa is the main goal of the Russians. NATO knows this and NATO will basically invest a lot of resources in Odessa. So I predict in a few years time, Odessa will be the final battle. But unfortunately, because Russia uses artillery warfare, because NATO is very stubborn, this thing will last for a long time.

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Yeah, I think so. I think that's definitely, you know, certainly what many analysts are saying. And I think I mean, looking at that, it has now become a war of attrition. I think that is what is going to happen. Interesting thought about Odessa. I can see exactly why Putin would say that and why that would be the end goal. Professor, I want to go now to the most important geopolitical relationship in the world. This is definitely China, the United States. We have seen no shortage of groundbreaking stories this year in 2025. Obviously, you know, we can go back to even a story that I first covered was Deep Seek, you know, back in early 2025. That was really amazing, you know, that you're really showing a lot of Americans, wow, China is, you know, able to invent this incredible technology on par with the United States in many factors, actually better than, you know, an

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open AI on many models. But we're also talking about the trade relationship. Obviously, Donald Trump launching a massive trade war with the entire world, not just China, you know, on this famous Liberation Day back in April. We've seen now this an escalation leading to the rare earth minerals, import controls and export controls, you know, from China, which is obviously the dominant player in rare earth mineral processing. Professor, give us give me your general thoughts on the United States and China relationship. I'd love to hear your theory and how you're looking at this relationship through your eyes.

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Well, I mean, I hate to repeat this, but America is behaving like a mafia state for the past few years. America has been constantly bullying China, imposing all sorts of restrictions on semiconductors, on technology. Um, and so with this rare earth mineral blockade, China has basically signaled the United States that it will no longer put up with this bullying. And that's the only way to deal with police. Right. You have to stand up and punch the guy in the face before he starts to negotiate. So but I think that both sides are committed to peace and prosperity. I think that eventually Trump and presidency will meet. And apparently this was meet at the end of this month in South Korea. I personally think that the two have a great interpersonal relationship. You know, if you look at Putin and Trump together, it's clear that the two are good friends. And if you just look at

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videos of Trump and presidency together in Trump's first term, you know, when when President Xi visited Trump, you know, Trump introduced presidency to his family and his grandchildren are learning Mandarin, they can recite, you know, tongue poetry, you know, and I can't do that. So so so I think that, you know, this interpersonal relationship between Trump and presidency is very important. And I think that once the two meet and once the two start, you know, being friends again, then I think we will see a replacement. I'm really optimistic about the China US relationship because I think that Trump and presidency are great friends and eventually they will come to a resolution that benefits both countries.

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I actually share your very bullish sentiment as well. And it's something that I constantly talk about is in my theory. I believe that, you know, the United States and China, you know, when we look at trade relationship is even so important. I think there's a many aspects that both economies are very dependent on each other. We've also spent 50 years building an incredible relationship with China. And obviously, even from the United States perspective, we've benefited tremendously from recruiting incredible minds and incredible intellects from China to study in our universities, to become naturalized American citizens, to start families, build businesses and very much live that American dream. And obviously, our country in America is built on immigration, which is we've had incredible success stories, you know, coming from China. So I do preach that as well, that I think that there there is, you know, a great potential for these two countries. How do you look at the trade?

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Yeah, so I didn't. OK, but like you know this, right? I understand that the media plays up this China US rivalry. But if you're an American, you will know this, right? If you're just an American in China, Chinese people love Americans. Chinese people are friendly towards Americans. You know, like like. It's it's even today, Chinese have a deep respect for American innovation, for, you know, this American attitude toward towards work, like even today, you've got these millions of Chinese families who want to send their kids to America to experience the American dream, to learn in America. So I saw at the very top you have this very strong relationship between President President Trump and President Xi. But at the very bottom, among the American people, among the Chinese people, there's genuine friendship and respect for each other.

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I couldn't agree with you more. And, you know, it's interesting. I first went to China in 2007. And, you know, often the question, you know, what's it like being an American in China? You know, what was your experiences being there? And I said, you know, in the 18 years that I've been going to China, I have not had a single bad experience and it's very common, you know, being the tall, you know, white foreigner in China to ask, you know, where are you from? You know, you know, and it's any time you respond with, you know, America, make war, you know, it's always like, oh, you know, you know, America is great, but you know, it's it's always, you know, very endearing. So I can 100 percent agree with your statement there. And I think it's something that I want more people to know about as well. And this was also really interesting when the

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TikTok ban, you know, was coming into, you know, you know, existence here in the United States, I think actually for a day, TikTok went black. A lot of Americans were very upset. They went to Xiaohongshu and actually downloaded a real Chinese app. But that was amazing because you actually saw millions of Americans exchanging with millions of Chinese. And I always say I think it's very important for Americans to, you know, to experience China. I mean, if they could. If they could actually go to China and experience it firsthand, it's going to be a very different perspective than anything that they've seen in our media. And then also probably just going to realize how friendly Chinese people are and how welcoming Chinese people are, you know, welcome to China. Thanks for being here. It's great to have you.

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And I predict that that'll be one of the tangible outcomes of this meeting between President Trump and President Xi, where they announced this partnership to bring more Americans over to China and more Chinese over to America, because it's just people to people exchange. That's the basis for any solid geopolitical relationship.

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Yeah, absolutely. People to people is so important. I couldn't agree more. But let's get back to, you know, one of the things that we hear in Western media is certainly China is the biggest threat to American democracy. The Chinese government, you know, they want to infiltrate into America. They want to see they want to become number one in the world. I mean, this is literally the daily message that we hear in the United States. And it's actually what inspired me to make a YouTube channel because I said, look, this is not China's intention. You know, China has one point four billion people. You know, President Xi and the government, they have enough problems. And, you know, it's a big responsibility dealing with that many people. You know, what is what is your thoughts on kind of the rivalry, you know, this rivalry and kind of this interesting relationship between U.S. China?

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Well, look, I had to be cynical. But look, the reality is that you have the one percent in America who is corrupt, who will try to create all these those dialectics in order to protect themselves, right, to distract people. I mean, Americans are suffering under tremendous wealth, wealth inequality. There's tremendous corruption in Washington. The government doesn't really work anymore for the American people. And that's a concern. And that should be the concern of American people. How to make government more responsive. And look, the reality is this. You live in America. America has always been protected by two oceans. It's a fortress. It's a continental fortress. It has all the resources you could possibly need. The American people are extremely hardworking, extremely talented. Extremely motivated. And if you just unleash that entrepreneurial energy of the American people, you remove that bureaucracy. If you remove that inequality, if you remove that corruption, America will be invincible. There's

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no there's no power in the world that can challenge American supremacy.

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That's a well said. I like that a lot. Professor, let's talk a little bit. Probably I think the biggest, you know, potential problem, you know, would probably be the island of Taiwan. You know, and I think that's something that we often hear that, you know, I think the U.S.-China relationship, it obviously centers on Taiwan because this is the first thing that, you know, that I think it was Zhou Enlai, you know, when he when he said to President Nixon, you know, we can talk many different policies, but there's one policy that's most important to us is that you recognize Taiwan as part of China, the one China policy, which has become the cornerstone of the U.S.-China relationship. You know, this is another talking point that we often hear that, you know, China's military is ramping up 2026 is the year 2027 is the year they're going to launch this attack against Taiwan, they're

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going to forcefully take the island, you know, and obviously that would cause, you know, a very big strain in the U.S.-China relationship. But how are you and game theory and how are you looking at the situation of Taiwan and how that influences the U.S.-China relationship?

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OK, just from a game theory perspective, it would be idiotic to go invade Taiwan. OK, so so let's go over the reasons why. The first reason is that in East Asia, China is surrounded by nemesis. OK, so Japan, Russia, India are all geopolitical threats to China in the long term. America, at the end of the day, it's far away in the Pacific. And at the end of the day, from a game theory perspective, you want the United States, if you're China, you want the United States in East Asia in order to balance out the other threats. Because what happens if the United States were to leave? Well, Japan now has to rebuild its military. And historically, Japan has had the most powerful, the most powerful navy in East Asia. And if you unleash Japan, then Japan is able to control all the trade routes, trade routes, especially the Strait of Malacca. And, you know, China is very dependent on trade right now.

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China imports one third of its food from overseas. So if Japan were to rebuild its navy and blockade China, China will be in a lot of trouble. You have India and China competing for control of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, which is a very important source of fresh water. Russia and China share a very long border. There are parts of Siberia and the Siberian Far East, which was historically China. And Russia has shown itself to be very aggressive. So from a game theory perspective, if you're China, if the United States were to leave, then you have to deal with all three threats and your entire the entire East Asian geopolitical landscape would be altered overnight. And so you don't want the United States to leave. You know, you want the United States to stay as a balancing force to to maintain a balancing act. Also, we have to remember North Korea is also a problem because North Korea is revisionist power.

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You know, North Korea has been sending troops to Ukraine to train them up. And North Korea wants to build up its arsenal, wants to build up its military. Why? Because it's poor and it's been blockaded out of the global financial system. So from a game theory perspective, if you're North Korea, you want to be the rogue state, you want to be the bad actor because that's how you you're incentivized to be the bad actor. So let's just assume that North Korea would threaten South Korea and says, listen, if you don't pay us a billion dollars a year, we're going to start shelling Seoul and destroy, you know, like 90 percent of South Korea. Well, then that creates problems for China as well, because China doesn't want that. They want North Korea to be like this rogue actor in Southeast Asia.

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So, you know, the United States and China benefit more from helping each other than they do by competing against each other. OK. So just from a game theory perspective, China's happy with the way things are. China, you know, if the United States were to leave, China would have to be the hegemon. It would have to invest more in its military and more its navy. It would create all these conflicts with its neighbors, which would disrupt its economy, which would lower prosperity for its people. First, the Communist Party, first and foremost, is concerned about maintaining peace and prosperity for its people, and that's its overriding geopolitical goal. It's not interested in hegemony. It's never been interested in hegemony. Second thing is that an invasion of Taiwan would be costly because remember, China's industrial base is based off the coast. So it would take exactly the American Navy, I would say, 24 hours to destroy China's industrial base.

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So why give the Americans a reason to do something like this? Also, the Chinese economy is based on global trade. So China's image overseas is important. So why come across as a belligerent? The Taiwanese don't really see China as a threat. The Taiwanese people themselves don't want to declare independence. The Taiwanese people are very happy with the status quo. Right now, Taiwan benefits a great deal from its trade relationship with China. So look, if you are China and you're concerned about Taiwan's independence, then you have all this economic leverage that you can apply. Why would you use the military, which is risky, which is kind of productive? And which could make you a pariah state? So from a game theory perspective, Chinese policymakers are not even considering the possibility of invading Taiwan.

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Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I think all of those reasons are very similar to the analysis that we've done on our channel as well, and it just doesn't make sense. And I think another important thing for many Westerners might understand is for 1.4 billion Chinese people, they're looking at Taiwanese people as their neighbors, their brothers and sisters. This is in their eyes, it's already united, right? It's already a province and it's already the brothers and sisters. I don't think they're just going to start bombing Taipei and trying to kill people. I mean, that just doesn't make sense for Chinese. And Chinese are very peaceful. I mean, they certainly want peace and prosperity. And I like what you said there, as far as the Chinese government, peace and prosperity for the nation and for the citizens. That is the overwhelming goal, not to be a hegemon, not to be. We want to be number one.

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It's about serving the society and creating a more peaceful and balanced society and hopefully one that continues to improve over time. You know, Professor Zhang, we're coming to the end of our interview here and I've learned so much from you. I absolutely love it. What is the biggest threat that you think, you know, in the future here? You know, for example, we often hear a headline of like, you know, World War Three is starting next or, you know, this is the next thing that's going to do, it's going to happen in the world. In your eyes, what is that conflict? What is that that you're worrying about for the future?

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Well, I think in the short term, the geopolitical conflicts are an issue. I think that both Ukraine and the Middle East will be two flashpoints. I think that Venezuela, it's sort of overstated. I don't think the Americans would actually send ground troops into Venezuela. They would want regime change, but they would use covert shadow mechanisms to to drive regime change. So I think the two major flashpoints of going for the next 10 years will be Ukraine and the Middle East. But beyond that, what worries me is a major geophysical event. I think that humanity has been very lucky for this past 20 years. We've had very good weather. We've been able to avoid major catastrophes. But if you just look at history, if you just look at the history of humanity from a macro perspective, ice ages are a common thing. So I think that we are looking, we're moving towards an ice age. And

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that, I think, should concern people because changes in weather are much more destructive than wars, actually, from a historical perspective. There's talk of a polar magnetic shift. So, you know, like like every, you know, now and then the North and South Pole, they shift their axis so the North goes south and this creates all sorts of anomalies, all sorts of catastrophes, flooding, earthquakes, all that. I would say, like, the biggest concern is how do we get humanity to focus on our common enemies, which is how to make this planet peaceful and prosperous for everyone, because these geophysical events, they are coming. I mean, it's just part of our history. It's just how the planet Earth works. And the only way we can survive it is by working together.

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You know, that's a you know what? I think that's a perfect way to end, because that's something that I often say when I'm talking about U.S. and China, you know, in U.S. and China work together, the whole world wins. And I would extend that, obviously, to every region in the world. Right. We only have one planet. And I love that you brought up these, you know, climate change and the change in the weather and how that could be potentially a catastrophe for the future. Professor Zhang, I want to say thank you so much for being on our show. And I certainly hope to interview you again in the future. I think today's chat was absolutely inspiring.

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Yeah, I mean, I'm a big fan of what you do. I think what you do is so important because you're helping to bridge this relationship between the United States and China. And, you know, as everyone knows, this is the most important relationship as long as, you know, China and the United States is going to work together, then it's possible to resolve a lot of issues. I think, you know, you know, once Trump and President Xi, they rebuild the relationship, it's possible China plays a very important role in maintaining peace in Ukraine. In the Middle East. And so so I think I think it's so important for Americans or Chinese to maintain dialog and especially to meet each other and get to know each other some more.

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Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I couldn't agree more. Well, Professor Zhang, I appreciate your time and thank you so much for spending time with us. I'm going to put a link to your YouTube channel that, again, is growing so fast and also you have an incredible Discord community and a great sub stack as well. So we'll put those links down there so everybody can follow along. And again, thank you so much for your time and our wonderful conversation today. Everyone, I hope you enjoyed today's conversation with Professor Zhang. As we both agreed, the world would be a far better place if major powers like the U.S. and China could find ways to work together. I love the professor's thoughts about President Trump and President Xi and the fact they do have a large mutual respect for one another. I hope the meeting between these two world leaders at the end of this month results in positive changes for the U.S.-China relationship and our entire world.

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But whatever the future holds, make sure to follow our channel to stay updated on the evolving state of these global flashpoints. And if you enjoyed the professor's insights, I've linked his work in the description down below. Thank you all for your incredible support. And we look forward to seeing you all in our next episode soon.