---
title: "China will replace US dominance through win-win not warmongering. With Professor Jiang Xuejin transcript"
description: "Source-synced transcript archive for China will replace US dominance through win-win not warmongering. With Professor Jiang Xuejin."
source_title: "China will replace US dominance through win-win not warmongering. With Professor Jiang Xuejin"
published_at: "2026-01-25"
source_class: "interview"
public_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/transcript/"
markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/transcript.md"
text_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/transcript.txt"
source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYdY86KpFns"
data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns.json"
---

# China will replace US dominance through win-win not warmongering. With Professor Jiang Xuejin transcript

- Source: [China will replace US dominance through win-win not warmongering. With Professor Jiang Xuejin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYdY86KpFns)
- Published: 2026-01-25, day precision
- Human transcript page: [/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/transcript/)
- Interview page: [/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/)
- Transcript Markdown: [/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/transcript.md)
- Transcript text: [/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns/transcript.txt)
- Interview JSON: [/data/lens/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-uydy86kpfns.json)

## Transcript

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Good morning, everybody. My name is Ian Proud. I am the Peacemonger, and I'm absolutely delighted this morning to welcome on the show Professor Jiang Xueqin, who is incredibly well known for his massively popular Predictive History podcast, where he takes lessons from the past, from my history, and applies them forward to the future to make really kind of viral projections, which, you know, often prove to be to be correct. So I want to kind of stay on that theme for the purpose of today's discussion and first kick off. Thank you, Professor Jiang, for joining us today. Thanks again for inviting me. So it seems clear to me, particularly now under the Trump administration, that the US is racing towards the end of its global hegemonic status, if you like, both in political terms, but also in economic terms. And at some point over the next one or two decades, China will surpass the US as the leading global economic power.

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It has the rate of economic growth. It has the size of population. Asia, you know, the 21st century is Asia's century. How do you see that the next kind of decade or so playing out in terms of, that quite historic and seismic transition to China as the leading global power?

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Yeah. So the issue is that when empires decline and die, they do not so peacefully. And so what we're seeing right now, as you say, is a decline of the American empire. But when an empire declines, it engages in certain counterproductive activities. So, for example, it engages in too many overseas military commitments. So what we're seeing, of course, it was the Venezuela kidnapping of Maduro. Now we're seeing that a huge armada has assembled around Iran. It is possible that the Americans will strike Iran at any time, possibly today, tomorrow. But very quickly, Trump has talked about annexing Greenland and Canada. He's talked about, you know, blockading Cuba. He's talked about regime change in Colombia, in Mexico. So this is what an empire decline looks like. It's very, very traumatic for the world and for America itself. On the domestic front, you see ruptures everywhere. So you've been finding the news about Minnesota. There's almost like a civil war going on where you have a heavy militarized opposition going on.

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You have the Minnesota local police who are being harassed. They're being harassed by ICE agents. These off -duty police officers who are of color, Latino or Black, they're being stopped by ICE agents. And they ask for the papers. And I think this is all very deliberate. It's to provoke them. Tim Walz, who is the governor of Minnesota, has deployed the National Guard to guard certain buildings. So you have three possible forces, the local police, the National Guard, and the ICE. And border control all in Minneapolis right now. And as you know, just yesterday, an American citizen who is 37 years old named Alex Pretty, he is an ICU nurse. He was executed in cold blood. We can only call it an execution based on the video evidence so far. I understand that the Truman administration said that the ICE agents were acting in self -defense.

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If you just look at the videos, if you just look at eyewitness testimonies, he was a man who was disarmed and then he was shot in the back. And then the ICE agents start to run up eyewitnesses and confiscate their mobile phones. So it seems as though these ICE agents are, for whatever reason, they're trying to incite a civil war. And there's fear that it's possible that one ICE agent might be shot by a sniper at some point, which would allow Trump to declare the Insurrection Act. There's also possibility of a shutdown in Washington, D.C., where the government no longer functions. There's all this talk about the Epstein files and how the entire billionaire class in America is implicated in these Epstein files. So right now in America, it's really a powder keg. And this powder keg can go off at any moment. And there's talk of ICE being deployed to other cities as well throughout the nation.

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Again, Trump is just looking for any pretext right now to declare the Insurrection Act, which would allow him to delay the midterm elections. And it's a very, very dire situation for both Americans and for any citizen of the world right now.

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Yeah, I completely agree. And I watched that horrific video. I agree with you that it was an execution or certainly a murder. There's a case to make that it was a murder. But they fired nine shots at a man armed only with a camera who's being held on the ground by several burly men with bulletproof vests on and sidearms. It is totally unacceptable. And of course, the kind of sense I have is that these images, I mean, obviously, they'll have impacts for U.S. domestic politics, of course. But they'll be shocking to the wider world in terms of the U.S., as you say, playing this more muscular role, wanting to take over Greenland, threatening and kidnapping Majuro, Armada, Iran. I mean, how is this playing in China, do you think? What are the reactions to these quite bizarre and shocking and sad events?

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Well, right now, the entire world is just shocked by American hypocrisy. So recall that at the New Year's, there was these protests in Iran. And Trump made a tweet, says that we will protect these protesters. These protesters have a right to protest freely. And we, the Americans, we protect ourselves on democracy, on our freedom, our liberty. And we will protect these protesters. And then just recently, in a massive troll, Ayeleto Khamenei on his social media account said that these protesters in Minnesota deserve the right to protest and we will protect their right to protest. So what's happening is that the hypocrisy of American empire has been exposed. Everyone understands that the American empire only believes in might is right. In fact, Mark Carney has said this as well at the World Economic Forum. And a speech that received a standing ovation from the audience. So across the world, there is dismay, there's disgust at the brutality, at the mafia tactics of the American empire.

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And the fact that the Americans can just violate a nation's sovereignty and kidnap their president. And then not only that, but to hold him before, like he was put in a van. And he was paraded on the streets of New York. And now he's being tried, even though according to national law, as the president of Venezuela, he does have immunity. And he's being charged with domestic American laws. So for example, gun possession, which is just ridiculous. So this entire thing is a farce. And now, you know, Trump is talking about annexing Greenland. I know that at the World Economic Forum, that he sort of compromised with the Europeans. But I guarantee you in a week or two, in a month or two, he's going to go back to threatening to annex Greenland. And it's possible he sends in some troops to annex Greenland. So just the

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peer mafia tactics of the American empire, I think, has disgusted the entire world, including in China.

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Yeah, I completely agree. Particularly on the parading of Majuro through New York. I saw those scenes and I was shocked. It looked like something you might see in some 1917 film. These African, like Somalia, for example, after they captured the US troops after the kind of Black Hawk down incident. It was quite bizarre to see that in the 21st century, in the country that professes to be the world's kind of leading advocate of democracy and so on. I mean, the sense I have, not only in the US, but also in the UK itself, actually, is that as we decline, in power, and of course, the UK's decline in power has been more rapid, of course, than what's happening in the US, domestic politics becomes even more tumultuous. Like when Trump was elected for the second time, the MAGA movement seemed to be truly ascendant and unbeatable, you know, domestically. And the same could be true

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of the Labour government, you know, in the United Kingdom, although they follow the Conservative government that also had what was seemingly unassailable, you know, lead. Do you think, you know, all these kind of shocking events, global events are actually making domestic politics more turbulent and that the MAGA movement may actually be a boom and bust phenomena quite quickly?

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So I study history and I look at historical patterns. And I think that if you examine what's happening in the United States right now, it's clearly a civil war. It's being fought between the Democrats and the Republicans. I think behind these two parties lies a different investment industry. So one of the Republicans are mainly the financial global elite as represented by Wall Street. And that's the old power. And they came into power through Clinton and Obama. Then sitting with Trump is the new money, the Silicon Valley elite as exemplified by Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, JD Betts. And, you know, they want to create an AI surveillance state. So these are the two major factions fighting out in America right now. And these citizens, unfortunately, unfortunately are just pawns in a larger game. And that's why my great fear is that what's happening in Minnesota will escalate, will spread across the country and engulf the nation, especially if Trump decides to take a third term, which I suspect he will.

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The great danger right now is that Trump is creating loyal bases among the military. So I think that Peter Heksep and his reforms in the Pentagon, it's really to weed out people who are not loyal to Trump and create an army that is more loyal to Trump so that when he does take a third term, essentially when he launches a coup d 'etat against the Constitution, he will have the muscle in order to enforce this. ICE is turning out to be his secret police, the Gestapo. And they're being very loyal. I mean, the fact that they shot an armed woman really good. And then now they've shot another armed woman. You know, innocent American citizen means that they are increasingly violent and therefore more and more beholden to Trump, who is their warlord. So that's a great danger right now in

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America, where Trump could be the Julius Caesar of our age, which is what also Spengler predicted in his works. And I think that the trends are clear. I think that we're moving towards that direction. And I have to say this. But given historical trends, it seems as though Trump will succeed. It seems that he will get his third term. And it seems that the military will be more and more loyal to him, especially as he seeks more and more victories overseas.

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Yeah. I mean, this all sits in stark contrast to the Black Lives Matter movement back in 2020. I think it was 2020, wasn't it? Just before COVID started. And I think the difference was that actually, the white -spread protests that took place were allowed to take place. And I've had many criticisms of the Democrat Party, particularly in terms of their foreign policy, which I think was truly dreadful as it relates to Europe. But at least in that context, people were allowed to express their anger about that murder of George Floyd. And of course, that anger spread across the world. I mean, that sits in massively stark contrast to, to me, where any outpouring of grief and emotion is violently suppressed. And if that happened in Iran, as you say, you know, the Americans are caught out. As you say, it's quite a remarkable double standard. But in terms of, you know, that wider kind of

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global response to this, I mean, so far, I have to say it's been relatively muted, unlike in 2020. But I do think it is going to make more countries, including actually, you know, in the West, gravitate towards finding some more reliable political partner. We've already seen that through BRICS, you know, of course, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, you know, what's happening through the Belt and Road Initiative. I mean, I foresee that that process of countries gravitating towards, towards China is only going to accelerate. I mean, how do you view it?

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Absolutely. And I think that Mark Carney, you know, his speech marked a turning point in this. So recall his speech. He said that, listen, before we had this rules -based international order, it was really a myth because most of the time, the strong just did what they want. Meaning the American empire just broke all these international norms. Like for example, 2003 invasion of Iraq, which broke international law. But the Western nations went, went along with it because they weren't hurt by it. But in the age of Donald Trump, clearly the American empire has devolved into a mafia state. And if the world is to thrive, if the middle powers like the UK can, if they are to successfully, if they are to be successful in this new age, then the nations, these nations need to work together to build a real, real rules -based international order. And there's exactly one nation in the world that's strong and that has been strongly advocating for multilateralism for international cooperation, and that's China, right?

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So China has been vigorously trying to promote international trade that benefits everyone, especially developing countries like in Africa and in South America. And that's why they're so popular. When the United States goes to Africa and South America, it's usually to launch a coup d 'etat or to lecture on human rights or to money launder. But when China goes in, it's to build roads, it's to build infrastructure, it's to build ports. And China has been promoting, as you know, the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Gold Corridor. And the idea is the US dollar is America's exorbitant privilege and they've abused it. The Americans are now $39 trillion in debt. People have lost count. And they constantly print money to fund these silly wars overseas, to fund, to fund corruption in America. And the world is financing all this. And so

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what China is saying is like, let's put a new order based on gold because that's a way to restrain financial corruption. And this gold won't be controlled by China. You will have your own, you'll be able to control your own gold in your own vaults. But it'll be like the blockchain. I mean, it'll be an open ledger. And so everyone can see how much gold is in the system. And we'll use this system in order to finance projects that the world needs, like more infrastructure building, that will lead to productive trade. And that's the Chinese vision. And that's a vision that I think everyone can buy into. And, you know, Mark Carney says, you know, like, you know, look, the old, the old order, it's dead. Look at the way Trump has behaved. And look, listen, if we don't change now, he's gonna come after us individually sooner or later. Okay.

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So when I was talking about, when I was talking about the Greenland, then it's been Canada, then it's going to be Europe, eventually we're all running in a menu, right? He used the word menu sooner or later. And that's why it's important to be proactive and establishing new rules based in actual order where everyone benefits. And, and BRICS seems to be right now, the, to provide the best framework for this new rules based in actual order.

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Yeah, that's quite right. And if you look at, for example, russia's international reserves um you know since the war started uh they've massively increased the over 735 billion uh us dollars in value now of course 300 billion of that is was frozen after the war started but all all of the additional reserves they've they've accumulated have been i think over 97 of the new reserve they they've accumulated have been in gold uh not in foreign currencies uh which is fascinating because obviously that you know the west can't the west can't steal their gold uh unlike their unlike their foreign currency reserves and i guess for china i mean that they don't want the exorbitant privilege right because it would it would weaken their status as a as a global exporting and investing power i should imagine look the exorbitant

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privilege has really hurt america right so think think what the original privilege has really hurt america right so think think what the original privilege has really hurt which means it means lack of discipline lack of discipline means it leads to corruption it means it leads to an oligarchy so right now washington dc is no longer accountable to the people it's just accountable to a few dozen oligarchs who control all the wealth in in the world so i'm sure during the new year's um there's this um island called st bart's and like you know a few dozen billionaires converge on st bart's with their mega yachts um to celebrate the new year's jeff bezos jeff bezos and apparently they were like 80 of the world's wealth that's just absolutely ridiculous that you know a few dozen people can control 80 of the world's global wealth and this can only lead to the decay the corruption and

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ultimately the demise of your society so um exorbitant privilege has led to corruption it's led to inequality uh it's led to complacency um this has not been good for for america yeah it certainly isn't and uh you know

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as 80 of the world's wealthiest uh uh hang out in some barts i mean i i sort of make a comparison with nato uh you know which you know for money to to weapons uh you know which before before the war in ukraine started you know accounted for 53 of global defense spending and what trump wants to do now would effectively push that up to almost 65 percent of global defense spending you know if this five percent uh Target uh you know is achieved I mean that that appears very clearly a sort of uh even though it's being couched in terms of your defending itself from Russia which actually has absolutely no intention of invading you know no evidence for that I mean it just feels like a backdoor attempt to cling to Global Domination through military means I mean how

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do you see it see it um I I see it differently I think the Americans are extremely corrupt um and so you know Trump just recently announced that he's going to increase the Pentagon budget for from a trillion dollars to 1.5 trillion dollars you know America already outspends uh everyone else in the world in military spending I know there's no military in the world that can actually challenge the American military so so why is he spending this much money well the answer is kickbacks to the military industrial complex okay so this money does not mean uh troops will be paid better in fact troops are many American troops are actually on footsteps it's just ridiculous it does um it means more corruption it means more weapon systems that have no relevance in Modern Warfare it means the Golden Dome right um and you know there's five percent no spending it's really uh the vassalization

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of Europe where you know now these European states to please Trump they have to like pay off these American military contractors like Raytheon and Boeing you know that's the entire point of all this it's not to you know start more wars it's not to make NATO much more efficient against uh Russia it's just it's just so that Trump's friends can continue to steal some more from the people you know I'm sorry no no need to apologize I don't disagree I've said for a long

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time that actually the only benefit of uh increased NATO defense spending in Europe is to fill the pockets of uh military industrial companies in the US but also to certainly send in in Europe as well

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you know of course go ahead sorry sorry sorry I have to interrupt but like and the war in Ukraine will not end it's a huge money laundering operation a million Ukrainians have died already um Putin has offered peace countless times this war is over but unfortunately this is not about winning the war it's not about defending Europe it's not about countering Putin aggression it's all about Monday laundering that's all it is yeah yeah well certainly in

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Ukraine uh you know given the revelations about corruption in the circle around Zelensky himself golden toilets uh and all the rest of it and and the complete unwillingness of European leaders to criticize that has been actually quite remarkable and also the complete unwillingness of European leaders to criticize young men being beaten up and dragged off the streets and put into mini buses and sent to the the front line against their will hopefully not criticized by any Western politician at all which has been quite shameless so yeah I'm afraid I'm inclined to agree with you that there is just a big uh money laundering operation you know unfortunately the the ordinary working people for people in particular because it's a you know if you're poor you're likely to be the one who's beaten up and bundled into the minibus I mean these are the people that suffer most and these are the people that the leaders

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in Europe and in Washington don't care frankly a jot about you know from my from my perspective um but in terms of the Europeans kind of clinging on to to Empire I mean I think uh you know in the UK in terms of how we pivot increasingly towards much better relations you know with China one of the big breaks on that is the massive Sinophobia you know in the United Kingdom I mean there's been a significant small but significant Chinese expat community in the UK for decades you know uh quite frankly but they're almost near Colonial Sinophobia still exists and a good example of that is the the painful resistance to to letting the Chinese government build and invest millions and millions uh in this swanky new Embassy uh site near near the city of London I mean that the mainstream media politicians saying well this is going to be a sight sign spying by

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the way every single MC in the world of every country spies I mean that's that's what they do uh amongst other things you know has been has been ridiculous um and you know Keir Starmer is going to to Beijing I think uh you know next month I genuinely think that he even though he doesn't want to admit it publicly recognizes that we need uh to develop a closer bond you know with China but but he's operating within a British blob trying to navigate trying to navigate that I mean this must be quite perplexing for for people in in Beijing getting mixing signals out of London now how do you see

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it look look look um in your diplomat so you know very well okay so there are exactly two nations in the world that have been aggressively spying on the Europeans they are first and foremost America you know Americans love to bug Angela Merkel's phone uh you know the uh Edwin stolen leaks revealed that NSA was spying on Angela Merkel and you can imagine every other European leader okay and the other the other power of course is the are the Israelis the most hot okay so these are the two nations that have the best record of spying on on the Europeans okay and it's really well documented and you have very little evidence of Chinese so so as you say it's really perplexing for the Chinese how okay um we have all these like you know reports and documents that the Israelis that Yahoo is tried to uh you know bug Boris Johnson you know he

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went into into the uh uh restroom and he tried to like install bugs in in in in the restroom and what was he reprimanded what was he reprimanded was there a public spat what was did this cause a different like upward no nothing I mean like no one mentioned it okay so so so it's really perplexing why what this happens why okay like there's so much evidence that this really is the Americans are compromising the national interests of the British and the Europeans there's very little evidence of Chinese are doing so the Chinese are always in the spotlight that you know the Chinese are the greatest threat even though there's really no proven evidence that the Chinese are actually threatening the British political system in any way

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like say I mean I've been working in the UK system I know how much we spy and I think to greater or less extent I think every everybody does it but you're right I mean people pick out China but also of course Russia you know whenever they throw these without looking in the mirror you know about what we do and I think about the very famous defection Soviet Union defection by the Soviets as as being about to defect basically because a Soviet agent in the CIA you know snitched on him because the Americans were so jealous that the UK was getting really good Soviet intelligence that they started spying on us to find out who it was and when they found out who it was as a KGB agent inside of the CIA then told then told the Soviet Union and this guy was lying anyway that's uh that's a slight that's a slight aside

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but I mean it makes absolute sense you know uh for the UK to kind of move more closely to China I think I I generally think he's a pretty poor Prime Minister but I think it in this respect you know Keir Starmer is trying to do the right thing whether he succeeds is another matter you know the UK has a big trade debt we import a lot of stuff you know uh from China but but we hardly get any investment basically because you know we block it all the time if it's a nuclear power plant if it's if it's telephone networks if it's anything like this you know there'll be someone who says well we can't do that because the Chinese will be spying on us it's quite it's quite bizarre so I actually sort of you know welcome you know what he's trying to you know what he's trying to do there but let's

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see if he if he bears fruit when he's in uh you know when he's in Beijing I mean the other Empire is is the EU itself and uh you know if if that can if that can continue I mean I think it's headed for a catastrophe you know quite frankly because it's become so centralized and it's taking power away from individual kind of nation states that they're starting to rebel and that direction of travel at the moment only seems to be going one way and that's towards the exit door I mean what's your kind of sense yeah no I can really agree um

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he argues that multi -lateralism is dead it's a lie and multi -lateralism is a pretext for the Europeans the British to free ride on American military power on American free American generosity basically so he says in the future America America is going to put self -interest first and uh like above everything else okay and so America says this and I think everyone should be doing this right China should be doing this the UK should be in this Europe should be in this okay into this empire and now it's it's devolved in this Mafia Empire where Mike makes right and so every nation um needs to act in its own best interest and right now as you say that the EU it's a huge bureaucracy that's not capable of being innovative that is not capable of being strategic so it just continues to you know that's that's what I'm asking and I think there's a lot

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of be what it is and it's leading to disaster um right now what the eu should be doing is trying to negotiate as quickly as possible and end to this war in ukraine because it is not helping anyone that this war continues and the longer that this war continues uh the more people will suffer but instead the eu is continuing this war in ukraine because honestly these are bureaucrats and they do not know what else to do they don't want to lose space they don't admit they're wrong and they don't want some of the consequences for their mistakes and so the eu right now has become its work it's its worst enemy uh this bureaucracy is blinding um these these nations from making strategic long -term um um interests yeah uh i agree and uh i mean i i've said it also that

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uh that it's a fear of losing face um that is holding europe back because it certainly isn't money because you know we're you know are the economies of europe uh uh you know going into decline de -industrialization is happening debt levels are growing taxes are rising and all all those things so unlike the us you know we're not profiting i mean some companies are obviously uh profiting from the war in ukraine but europe itself ordinary working citizens of europe are not profiting from the war in ukraine so so i think it's that kind of self you know personal self interest and ambition of politicians who don't want to uh step up and tell the voters that actually sorry we lied to you we said that we could beat russia but actually we couldn't be russia and we've got to stop and you know it's that you know losing face you know is for me one

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of the biggest things you know frankly holding uh you know holding it all uh holding it all back and uh quite frankly but i mean i think in any case i mean that that that that emotional kind of uh you know restriction that the european leaders themselves as you say uh making them unable to kind of make genuinely strategic choices in the national interest of the european member states and the obvious uh strategic choice would be to buy cheap russian energy i mean you know that that is the the simplest that would open all sorts of doors in terms of normalizing relations with russia instead of buying three times the germans

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the germans have committed economic suicide right they no longer buy cheap uh russian energy and now they're forced to buy russia american lng at a 50 markup that's just economic suicide um it's it's it's not in their best interest to to to play along with americans

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yeah no i totally agree it is absolutely economic uh uh you know suicide and at standing back you know and effectively being complicit in the silence when terrorist attacks happen on against pipelines you know uh to germany was you quite a shocking development but also i mean they've shot themselves in the foot in other ways with their with their kind of green energy policies as well you know quite frankly um i mean china is obviously the world leader in sort of renewable technologies uh but you know the german economy hasn't even put the basic kind of pinnings you know in place first before shutting off their nuclear power stations and actually initially reverting to coal i mean that they the germans used to be the cleverest people in europe but uh now they're the cleverest people in europe but now it would be hard to say that that was true uh you know uh quite

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frankly um so i mean increasingly mccon is now is and actually even just certainly extent uh talking about you know as kia starmer is he's not talking about hello hello hello so a slight technical uh glitch there yeah i was saying i mean even some of the european leaders are talking about the need to kind of copy engage you know with china um but i think that that sign of phobia will still act as a drag on them being able to do so and and the choking bureaucracy of brussels will will continue to act as a choke and then being able to do so if some time to come you know uh i say i mean that's just how politics in the west seems to work you know what do you think well i mean there's some phobia and there's also

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russia phobia and and these two things are what drives a lot of policy in the eu and so the reality is that trump is not giving is not leaving the europeans much for choice right i mean he's continued to be aggressive uh with greenland he's continued to he's going to continue to insult the europeans he's gonna he's continuing he's gonna continue to side with putin on many issues so i mean either european is smart enough right now and make this pivot or trump's gonna force him make the pivot in a year or two it's their choice in the matter

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Look, Professor Yang, we get a lot of misinformation, disinformation in the UK and in other European countries, frankly, about the South China Sea. What is China's likely posture and approach on that over the next 20, 30 years, do you think, in terms of the troubled Taiwan issue?

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So I think that China is very conservative with foreign policy. And so what's happening in the South China Sea, there is a lot of conflict, but it's caused by the fact that China is blockaded by the first island chain. And if America were ever to choose to embargo China with the first island chain, then China will lose access to overseas markets, which is the lifeblood of the Chinese economy. So China imports a third of its food from overseas. China imports three quarters of its oil from overseas and all that passes through the Strait of Malacca. So it's very easy for America. To blockade China. So just for its long term strategic best interest, China needs some military presence in the South China Sea. OK, that's number one. Number two is that there will be a time when America has to retreat from Southeast Asia because it's a civil war or because it's bankrupt or for whatever reason.

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OK, which which means that Japan will most likely retreat from the Strait of Malacca. Japan will most likely become the dominant naval power in Southeast Asia, and China needs to prepare for the day when it has to confront Japan militarily in the South China Sea. Look, if you just look at the history between these two countries, there's a lot of conflict. OK, so I think that the Chinese are probably happy with America being the dominant hegemon in the South China Sea because Americans believe in global trade. But the Japanese, I mean, it's a resource poor island. And so it needs to build. And so it needs to build. It's a resource colonies throughout Southeast Asia. It has this history of doing so. So Japan will be militarily aggressive. And so China needs to preempt this strategically. So I think these are two factors driving a lot of China's stuff, trying to see policy.

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And I think I think it's very, very conservative. I think it makes sense.

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Yeah, I mean, looking forward, given the history of Japan, China conflict and on the basis that, you know, the U.S. is going to weaken itself through its own actions over over the coming over the coming decades, do you think stripped of that U.S. umbrella that, you know, the Japanese state would ever actually be in a position really to pose a credible challenge to China?

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So Prime Minister Takeuchi, like a month ago, said that Taiwan was a vital strategic interest for Japan. And this was very provocative. This was very controversial because for the longest time it was basically like, let's pretend that Taiwan is both independent and a part of China. If you don't say anything, we won't say anything. OK, so that was just a status quo for the longest time among the major powers in Southeast Asia and for Takeuchi to say that we will defend Taiwan if it were to be attacked. And that is a direct provocation towards China. And this relationship between Japan and China. China right now is extremely, extremely strained and we can see we can expect an escalation over the next few months. Now, if you just look at this from a game theory perspective, the issue with Japan right now is its aging crisis. And in 20 years time, it's not going to have the economy, the population and the will to fight a war with China.

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And in 20 years time, it's possible that China is so strong that it's able to. Identify with Taiwan economically, in which case China is not in a position to blockade Japan, in which case Japan starves. So Japan's not thinking like, OK, well, can we fight? Can we take on China militarily? It's more like the clock is running out on us and we need to act now. OK, the Americans are about to leave Southeast Asia. China is on the rise. We need to seek decisive confrontation now or never. It has to be a five year time frame. These in 20 years time will be too old to fight a war. So so I just say this, but that is a strategic calculation for the Japanese right now.

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Yeah, that's actually incredibly insightful, given the population cliff edge that Japan is facing. Well, on the flip side, I think China is kind of pivoting more towards kind of family natalist type of policy increasingly. Is that is that correct to my understanding of that?

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I'm sorry. Could you repeat that?

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So so so China appears to be. Pifting more towards a more kind of family focused populations of stabilization kind of policy, which which Japan isn't. Is that is my understanding of that correct?

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So the reality is that if you look at all the countries in the world, OK, except for Israel, there is a steep population decline. The fertility rate has gone way down. The Southeast Asian economies, China, Japan, South Korea are among the lowest. In the world. And there are distinct cultural factors at play. All these are extremely patriarchal societies in which women do not feel that they have much agency. These are extremely competitive societies where it is extremely expensive to educate your child. And this is and these are extremely unequal societies in which women are takes all. And these are structural factors that is inherent in East Asian culture. And unless you change this. This culture, you're not going to increase the fertility rate. And so long term, these nations will face massive population declines. China has a huge population anyway, so it's less so as more breathing room. But South Korea could be extinct in 50 years time.

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It is that serious.

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You extinct by when?

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So 50 years time.

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Wow. That's that's quite incredible. So in this massive reset, which seems to be going on. Right now, which I think is going to play over the next 20 or 30 years. I mean, do you I mean, I think the America I was talking to work power about this the other days. The Americans can view this transition in very Anglo -Saxon terms. You know, they see it as a transition from from one power to another power. But do you think the Chinese conception is different that it won't be as binary as that, that they will be economically? Yeah. It's going to be the biggest kind of global power within the next 20 years, but given their focus on multilateralism, they'll be more of a kind of convener on the world stage rather than a power that's trying to dominate. I think that the difference is Asian and Anglo -Saxon kind of thinking on talking about this transition is quite sort of interesting.

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What do you think?

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So you know, China, the Mandarin is Zhongguo, which means Middle Kingdom. And the idea is that China is a center of the universe. And therefore, China's not that interested in the periphery. If you look at Chinese history, China has not been aggressive when it is aggressive. It's because it's trying to secure its northern frontier against, you know, the steps people that continues to invade China. But for most of its history, China has stayed within its own borders. And China is first and foremost interested in trading with the rest of the world. You know, that's why it's interested in breaks. That's why it's interested in multilateralism. If there is a new world order, then China believes that it has to be based on multilateralism. It has to be based on global trade. It has to be based on what they say as win -win cooperation. And that is the Chinese ethos. But you're right in that

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Westerners can't really understand this because Westerners have this Faustian mindset where, you know, they believe that it is romantic to struggle and to achieve and to dominate. But the Chinese mindset is not very much. It's not at all like that. Yeah. The Chinese very much believe in reciprocity. Reciprocity, in fact, is the inherent value of Confucianism. It is the underlying value of Confucianism. Reciprocity, you know, the golden rule, basically.

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Yeah. And it's something I talk about in the context of Russia, you know, a country I know well having served there, that reciprocity is absolutely hardwired into kind of Russian statecraft, essentially because, I mean, Russia is a fascinating melting pot of Asian and Western cultural influences, I think, which most people in Europe simply don't understand, quite frankly. But the reciprocity thing is absolutely central to that. If you hit Russia, they'll hit you back harder. If you hug Russia, they'll hug you closer. It's just such a simple, simple concept that most people over here, I'm sad to say, cannot see. And I sense the same actually, you know, with China. I mean, I've only been fortunate enough to visit the wands, but I absolutely loved it, loved it, loved the people and hope to visit again. But for now, Professor Xiang, thank you so much for taking the time to talk to us today.

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I really appreciate it. You got such smart and strategic, actually, insights, which are rooted in your historical studies, which I think makes you stand apart from most other people on the block. So thank you. Thank you so very much. And thank the viewers for watching today. And if you enjoyed this, please do continue to like and subscribe in the cause of peace. Wishing you all very much peace wherever you are in the world. And once again, Professor Xiang, thank you so much for joining us today.

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Thank you.