---
title: "Predicting Geopolitics w/ Professor Jiang transcript"
description: "Source-synced transcript archive for Predicting Geopolitics w/ Professor Jiang."
source_title: "Predicting Geopolitics w/ Professor Jiang"
published_at: "2025-11-06"
source_class: "interview"
public_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/transcript/"
markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/transcript.md"
text_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/transcript.txt"
source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JleJlzMum4g"
data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g.json"
---

# Predicting Geopolitics w/ Professor Jiang transcript

- Source: [Predicting Geopolitics w/ Professor Jiang](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JleJlzMum4g)
- Published: 2025-11-06, day precision
- Human transcript page: [/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/transcript/)
- Interview page: [/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/)
- Transcript Markdown: [/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/transcript.md)
- Transcript text: [/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g/transcript.txt)
- Interview JSON: [/data/lens/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-jlejlzmum4g.json)

## Transcript

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yeah we're going live we're going live alexander we are live with alexander marcus in london and it is our honor and our great pleasure to have with us on the duran first time on the duran professor chang of the youtube channel predictive history of which i am a huge fan of a fantastic uh channel on youtube a fantastic professor uh professor chang thank you so much for joining us on uh on the duran and i will have all of uh his channel links in the description box down below thank you for joining us professor thank you fantastic so uh let's get started we have a lot of ground to cover but uh before we get moving let's say a quick hello to everyone that is watching us on odyssey on rockfin on rumble and youtube as well as our locals community theduran.locals.com and a big shout out to our moderators as well thank

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you to our moderators in the chat so alexander professor chang let's uh let's talk about predicting

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geopolitics indeed because we are as everybody obviously must know in a major geopolitical conflict situation at the present time a geopolitical conflict which was not in my opinion designed desired some of the parties to it i don't think china was set set out a few years ago to find itself catapulted into a geopolitical conflict i'm absolutely sure that it didn't the same is true with the russians but they are in a geopolitical conflict and the other major player is the united states and it is the west and of course all sorts of things are taking place around the world in the middle east in ukraine in latin america with all these fleet movements around the venezuela there's all kinds of events taking place in the worlds of economy and science and technology all the time and all of these interconnect with each other in all sorts of ways now on the duran where we what

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we tend to do is we tend to go through all of these topics one by one we we focus on each one and we discuss them alex and myself and sometimes with our guests in detail i think what we're going to do today with professor chiang is something slightly different which is we're going to try and pull these things together perhaps looking mostly but not exclusively at the conflict in europe and the developments that are taking place there in order to try to understand where the final well where these these events are leading to and even they are happening they are taking place again and again and so forth. leading us towards in other words a more predictive a greater sense of where this is taking us and there is no one better to do it with than Professor tiang whose Channel I also I should say am a massive fan of and which I

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absolutely do recommend to everybody to everybody who is viewing us as well so Professor Professor tiang let's let's begin we are now I I think you will I think everybody is in agreement that we are in a global geopolitical conflict there is a view that there are actually two completely different conflicts going on one between Russia and the United States and the West the other specifically between China and the United States but they have to some extent merged we've had had all kinds of interactions between the Americans of the Chinese recently and between the Russians and the Chinese it's not been noticed so much in the West but there are underlying Trends here there are events that are shaping how things are going you could take us a little bit further and discuss should we start with Ukraine and the conflict there the first big war in Europe the first wall involving major clashes of

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armies that has taken place since the end of the Second World War Europe has historically in the West at least been the pivot area it's probably not that to anything like the same degree that it used to be but can us can you perhaps give us a few thoughts about where you think this is going maybe looking at a bit of um predictive history I can put it like this you know looking back at history looking also perhaps at uh um other um scientific tools which I know you're very skilled at using okay so thanks so much for

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having me on the Duran I've been a big fan of your show for like four years now I actually started first watching the Duran when the war broke out in uh on February uh 22nd 2022. and the reason why was all the like mainstream news coverage I was watching was like oh my God Ukraine's gonna March to Moscow and Putin's gonna fall and the Russian Army um is incompetent and I couldn't believe what I was watching because it actually made no sense to me uh I'm not sure if you remember the ghost of Kiev um um where you know this lone fighter jet was flying around Ukraine just shooting on all these um um Russian jets so the news coverage at that time was literally driving me insane it made actually no sense to me it it was it was as though I was living in a I was living in a bizarro world so

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I scoured the internet uh for some actual information and I found you guys and like you literally saved my life because you actually talk sense um and so I've been watching your show ever since so basically all that I know about Ukraine comes from you guys so if my analysis is wrong it's your fault not my fault so let's just um get that out of the way but um look I am actually much more pessimistic about the situation in Ukraine than you are I think the war is lost I think Ukraine has ceased to function as a nation state uh the wartime casualties are estimated between one to two million people I mean and you've got millions of Ukrainians uh who have fled overseas um if there's a peace treaty tomorrow the Donbass would go to Russia and the Donbass is the agricultural and industrial heartland of Ukraine and so Ukraine would cease to be

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would cease to function as a nation state it would become a welfare state a rump state that the Europeans would have to support so I think the war is lost if you just look at the situation on the front lines the morale among Russian soldiers is extremely high they've mastered drone Warfare um to an extent that no other nation can can emulate there's massive distortions among the Ukrainians so the war is lost at the same time if you just look at historical uh patterns or historical analogies what you will understand is it's at this time that NATO will have no choice but to double down NATO is going to have to come into the war why because they cannot accept the fact that they've lost um they can't go to go to the public and say oh you know we spent hundreds of billion dollars in Ukraine we've lost a lot of weaponry um four

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years Putin was was offering peace all this time and we said no and oops we made a mistake sorry they can't do that um because there will be a political Revolution if they did do that Zelensky can't back down now for the same reason that if the Ukrainians ever had a chance to take a full accounting of the devastating losses these past four years uh there would be a violent Revolution in Ukraine so NATO is forced to uh double down um also we have to remember that um NATO is heavily invested in Ukraine I mean like they've they've literally assumed that when the war is over they'll have access to all of Ukraine's rare Earth minerals um and um that's part of their accounting so given what's happened um it's almost like you've walked in Casino and you lost two million dollars and the Casino says to you listen we'll take 80 percent um and

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then you can just go home well and then you're like I can't go home because that reason I have to explain this to my wife I can't explain this to my wife so I'm gonna keep on you know playing gambling even though it might cost me my life so I know it sounds suicidal but um it's a very dire situation for for NATO and for the Europeans and for Ukraine national as a nation state and if this war ever stops then people will come to this recognition so I think that the truth is being hidden from us but um if you just do some macro analysis of the actual situation in Ukraine then um you can only come to the conclusion that the war is lost and the situation is far more dire than we can possibly imagine let's just explore this point

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about NATO doubling down I mean what is that going to mean is is that going to mean NATO going in and fighting the Russians in Ukraine because that would be an extraordinary incredibly dangerous active escalation by the way I agree with you that the war is lost um I'm not sure how long it will take for the full reality of that to hit home but let's let's focus on what NATO is going to do because nature going on in and fighting the Russians um is going to be a dramatic event to put it mildly I mean it will take what is still a contained war and it would make it into an all -out european war it would bring us much closer to the kind of situation we had in europe between 1939 and 45. so is that where this is going um i should say that this morning i was reading in the british

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media that the british military are going to send all their remaining self -propelled howitzers whatever they have left to ukraine to fight there to tell the ukrainians fight there so already we could see that there are going to be you know logistical challenges to doing that but is that where they're heading is that what they're thinking of doing or what they might do because i by the way having had experience of people who um gamble i know exactly the psychology that you describe that um you go on piling in chips if i can i don't gamble myself but you go on doing that because you lose more and more and more and more but you say to themselves if i do it just a little bit further the the the the lock will turn the wheel will turn and i'll get it all

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back so is that what they're going to do um i don't think needle has strategic foresight if they did they would not have gotten themselves in the situation in the first place right um so so we have to remember that and putin has said this uh nato has been fighting russia in ukraine for the past four years anyway because even though it's russia it's ukrainian manpower it is nato weaponry uh nato intelligence nato special forces nato uh command and control um nato targeting um so so you know when these bridges get blown up in crimea it's not ukraine that's doing this it's nato that's doing this right all these deep strikes into russia that's that's nato uh you know ukraine doesn't have the expertise the personnel the weaponry to do this it's all nato so nato has been fighting anyway so what we're seeing right now is a gradual mission creep um and so listen

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the reality is we already have nato mercenaries nato special forces nato officers on the ground in ukraine um it's it's it's a open secret um so you just have mission creep you just have a gradual expansion of this and then what i think will happen is that eventually you get a point where nato decides that the front lines cannot be hold you know provost has fallen ten thousand ukrainians have been encircled the front lines cannot be hold held right now so what you do is you you make odessa your final stand you make odessa the styling grad of this war and that's what i think the final battle will be um the issue for nato right now is you don't have a manpower necessary to make a final stand so eventually they'll be forced to have a draft you know romania has already discussed the possibility of drafting young men this creates a problem for

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nato because their governments are not very popular back in europe um you have massive migration that is weakening the social contract that is weakening social cohesion um it seems as though france and britain are almost on the verge of civil war right now so it's a very delicate situation for nato on one hand they need to draft soldiers for this war in ukraine that they cannot afford to lose on the other hand it's possible these soldiers mutiny at some point whatever chips they grow but i can't say for sure a lot of it is going to be passed the temperament so um i don't think nato knows what it's doing i don't think nato has a strategic plan going forward the same time it's again this mentality where you're just forced to move in more and more chips even though you've you it's impossible to recover your losses right now

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um it's not just a romania that's talking about introducing the draft germany is doing the same right right very well and i know that the mood amongst young germans is very very hostile to that idea and i do think that if there was an attempt to do that and to try and send young men from europe to fight in ukraine i think there would be a very very strong reaction very much in the line with what you have suggested now let's just let's just look through this the the europeans send troops to fight in odessa there is a stalingrad type battle there they're up against a much much more experienced russian army their troops are unwilling there's probably major discontent and disaffection in europe it's not easy to see this battle being won against the russians it seems to me like a recipe for disaster if we ever get there and what does the united

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states do in that situation

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right so um i think nato is doing this because united states is forcing it to to do this i think if we're up to europeans there would be no war uh remember um germany relies on cheap russian gas um this war does not benefit europe in any way in fact you can make the argument that after 2014 the europeans have basically screwed over by the americans right um so um this is something that america is forcing upon nato and quite honestly it doesn't really matter america if nato falls right because it's all the way up in europe and this is why we're seeing such idiotic decision making because for the americans it's like who really cares i mean we we decided to fight russia to last ukrainian now we're going to fight russia to last european is there really a difference from our perspective when you do is bog russia down you know and if

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this war keeps on dragging there's a possibility that the russian economy collapses and in fact americans are absolutely confident that um eventually the russian economy will buckle under american sections even though there's actually no evidence this is the case in fact uh we're seeing um a resurgence in the russian economy um but but that but you know the problem in washington dc is they are so removed from the actual reality and the consequences of this reality that they are making really decisions um i mean like like the idea is that well you know we keep on fighting russian russia and ukraine eventually russia will tie herself out but it's like saying to you okay it's like saying well you know i'm the box someone and this person works out every day but but i won't work out because you know he'll work out every day and he'll just exhaust himself so when the actual fight

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happens and i'll just knock him down because like i'm well rested you know and like he's not okay that's it's it's like like this is american decision making has never ever been strategic has never ever been clairvoyant so i don't see uh america doing much in this in this situation

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isn't this a little bit like what happened at the um at the end of the chinese war the war between the communist party of china the people's liberation army and the guam indang because you had you had the defeat of the guam indang and they went to taiwan and then very shortly after the war and the americans assumed uh that they would be able to go into korea and they got all their allies to fight in korea and they completely discounted the possibility that china might intervene i've read this history i know this history very very well and then of course china does intervene and it comes as a profound and complete shock even at that point they're not able to think strategically or have any capacity to understand that the other side and china at that time did not particularly want by the way to be the other side but it became that that

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the other side would have to react to what it saw as a major strategic and security challenge to itself this inability to think strategically actually has a very very long deep roots in the united states look i mean it's not just not being

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built for power or for Rohingya you know the in the national security system the real world is not exactly going to be able to understand that and be able to address that based on the political political issues it has to be a very broad spectrum of people's vote and you know it's not just about uh the central government or the central government or the central government but it's about a broad spectrum of people's vote in the world so it's not just about uh like well most of the leaders of the entertainment industry are variants of the central government but what about the central government and should they have a little bit of a role in in what they're doing with the muslims you talk to any american historian they'll tell you that the um um chinese army in korea fought with extreme bravery fought with extreme strategy they they outmaneuvered encircled the american forces and

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it was a miracle that the americans were able to retreat in order yeah so so i i don't think it's just like lack of force and it's also deep contempt for other nations as well but

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that's no different with the russians because exactly back to what exactly contempt in that they're incompetent that they're inefficient and all of those things i have a lot of american

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friends and they all tell me you know there's a entrenched russia phobia in washington dc uh there's a deep contempt there's a deep um fear of of russia and it's never gone away uh not not

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even after the the end of the cold war it's still there let's let's just then discuss what happened so the europeans go in the americans push them they tell them to go in it turns into a military debacle because i have to say that seems to me far and away the most likely outcome it also turns into a major political crisis in europe and you talked about the economic instabilities i'd say europe is much more unstable economically at this particular point in time than russia is i know that's a view that many people would challenge but that is my own view let's assume that i am right uh we have a massive crisis in europe that might call into question the entire existence of nato or am i missing something look so the

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closest historical analogy is the peloponnesian war between athens and sparta and if you read flucidities what he tells you is that uh the war was not really between athens and sparta it was really between athens and its allies because athens was exploiting um the resources of its allies sending uh its allies to these pointless wars um and eventually they're going to be stronger from now on which means that athens was in the same post -war years as it was as they sense of security and at that point athens was the most leading frontier and athens is the most powerful and Company of economies that spart boehner and his allies well which switch sides and to buy really expensive american liquefied gas uh it's going to force us into this pointless unwinnable war in ukraine um and uh they are imposing tariffs on us to drain our economy further so who's our enemy right now is

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russia enemy or is america our enemy i think eventually they'll come to conclusion that they're actually better off with russia than they are with america i don't know how long it'll take but i think if the peloponnesian war is a guide then that's the

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uh and end result uh as a greek and an athenian a very old union i can absolutely confirm what you just said in fact um athens came to be called the tyrant city and when it was finally defeated there was calls from athens's former allies that the city would be completely expunged from the earth and it was the spartans who said no they they they actually spoke out against it okay so we have a situation again let's let's explore this we have a situation where the european allies finally rebel not under the present leadership but under alternative leaderships which is far from inconceivable by the way and we have a dramatic change in europe's um attitudes um where does that leave the united states because i'm going to i'm going to suggest something i know a lot of americans um john meersheimer is one um and he's somebody i know i've come to know very

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well he says that you know the united states doesn't need europe europe is uh you know a problematic place i i think that would be true if the united states were to follow a policy of peace and internal construction and development but a united states that continues to be wedded to geopolitical ambitions i mean it will have lost its key allies i mean surely that will

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weaken it not strengthen it so go back to the television of war right remember that athens um was not only fighting enemies overseas sparta and um it's and uh sicily uh syracuse it was also fighting an internal civil war right so there was a coup d 'etat in athens uh by the the elite and then um there was a rebellion by seller so so internal athena policy was just completely bonkers right um you had people like cleon um uh alcibiades uh they were demagogues um and they were causing lots of problems internally so so i think why athens was defeated not was not because it faced a superior athens was defeated not because it faced a superior athens was defeated not because it faced a superior foe in sparta um it it collapsed because of this internal infighting and i think that's what's happening united states right now i mean like you look let's go

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to united states there's the government is shut down i'm not sure people recognize this but the government is shut down it's possible when next um you know month you have tens of millions of americans starving because they don't have access to food stamps and no one seems to care um donald trump doesn't really seem to care and you know there's talk of in civil war in the united states and i think it's very likely the united will enter in a civil war situation in the next two to four years, especially after 2028 elections when whoever wins, the other side just will not accept that person as the president. So I think the United States is gonna go through a very tough period of imperial decline. So I think what's happening in Europe is one theater, but the real theater is within the United States. If civil discontent erupts in the United States, then it will be very, very ugly because Americans are the most heavily armed people in the world.

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Indeed, I mean, actually, you see the point you've made, because again, as somebody who knows the history very well, because it is the history of my city, one of the things you find towards the end of the Peloponnesian War is that even as there is this internal crisis in Athens, Athenian decision -making becomes increasingly irrational. Yes. And loses all contact with reality Yeah. And becomes unbelievably aggressive. I mean, it starts wars in all sorts of places until eventually Athens is basically fighting everybody, the Persians, the Sicilians, the Spartans, its own allies. It's fighting everybody at once. And as you rightly said, there's an internal crisis as well.

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Yeah, so I love talking to you because you know so much about the Peloponnesian War, but yeah, the turning point in the war was actually the invasion of Sicily, right? So before then, it was not really a problem for Athens. It had the most prominent navy in the Mediterranean, but the Sicily expedition was completely pointless. No one knew why they were doing it. And it was very costly, not only that they lost all their soldiers in the expedition, but they'd also brought in Syracuse into the war, and Syracuse had a navy, as far as they did not have a navy. So Syracuse was down in the war, and that's what marked the downfall of, you know, of Athens. So I think in the American situation, I think the downfall will be the irrational invasion of Iran. My, one of the biggest predictions is that eventually America will reach a point where it decides to launch a ground invasion of Iran.

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And I think it'll be exactly the same as what happened to the Athenians in Sicily. They go into Sicily, and they win all these major battles at first, but then they're bogged down, they can't supply their troops, and then their troops are forced to surrender against a superior Syracuse counter offensive. I think, I think we have a very similar scenario in the Middle East.

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What is the risk that nuclear weapons could be used in these kinds of scenarios? Because this is the fundamental difference between our situation today and the situation in the past. I mean, there were no nuclear weapons in the fifth century before Christ. I mean, they didn't exist then. So Athens might be going down, but it didn't have the option of using nuclear weapons. America in theory does. Is that a risk?

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You know, I actually discount the use of nuclear weapons. I don't think nuclear weapons will be ever used. First of all, it's ultimately taboo, right? I mean, whoever uses nuclear weapons will be a prostate for all of eternity, right? And it doesn't matter who it is. If America uses it, then the entire world will turn against America, and America will be held in contempt for all of eternity. So I think that's the first thing. The second thing, is that we have to remember that even at least nation states are at war, they still have a lot of back channels. There's still negotiations going on. So remember, even during the Pleasurian War, Sparta and Athens, their lead were very close. They were intermarried with each other, and, you know, when Athens captured these Spartan hostages, the Athenians did return to hostages after some negotiations. So the war never descended into complete barbarism. I mean, there were

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gruesome engagements, still, but no wars. in place. So even though Russia and the United States still have war with each other, they still have a lot of backdoor channel communications. Remember, what people don't recognize is that Putin and Trump are very good friends. And we know that from the meeting in Alaska in Anchorage. If you just look at their body language, if you just look at their demeanor, their language, they're very close. They sort of have a rapport with each other. So I would discount actually the use of nuclear weapons. I do not think it's a factor in what will happen over the next 10 years.

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Let's just pursue the Peloponnesian war analogy, which is an interesting one for me, because obviously I'm Greek. Is Venezuela like the attack on Melos? Another action that Athens really didn't need to take, but it attacks Melos. Basically, it's starting to sense maybe that it's going down and things are starting to turn against it. But then it goes against Melos. It crushes this island state, which is trying to be preserved neutrality and balance between the superpowers of the time, Sparta and Athens. And in doing so, it shocks the entire ancient world, the ancient Greek world. I mean, it's one of the things that turns attitudes against Athens. And of course, it leads. Thucydides to do this incredibly powerful and extraordinary debate, which people always quote in many, many discussions. I mean, is this what the whole Venezuela thing is? Partly a demonstration again of power, an attempt to assert power and assert power in your own,

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what you claim to be your sphere of influence?

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Yeah. So for me, Melos was a turning point in the war, because that's when Athens shed all pretense of hypocrisy, all pretense of liberalism, virtue, democracy, right? Might is right. That's what the Athenians said to the Melanians. We can do whatever we want because we're stronger than you, and so just shut up and obey us. And the Melanians said, we'd rather die. And the Athenians said, fine, then we'll just kill all of you, okay? So I think if I were to draw a historical parallel to Melos, I think it'd be more like Gaza or Palestine. Because, you know, the Gaza, you know, that's where the entire world has given up hope in the United States. The Americans are clearly collaborators in what's happening in Gaza. And so I think the world is just disgusted with American supremacy, American power. My understanding of Venezuela is different. I actually don't think the United States will launch a ground invasion of Venezuela.

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I don't think they have the appetite for it. I don't think they have the resources, the manpower, the global will to actually launch an invasion of Venezuela. What I think is happening there is actually a bit different. So let me tell you my analysis, and then you can respond. I think that right now there's a hidden war right in geopolitics. And the hidden war is between the nationalists versus the globalists. Another thing is that Trump is taking on the global deep state. You know, the state of London, Wall Street, the deep state. Who he thinks caused him to lose the election in 2020. He still talks about how he was cheated in 2020. And who cheated him? The deep state, okay? So he sees his real enemy as a deep state. Okay, so if we do believe there's a global deep state, and there obviously is, how do they exercise power?

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Well, they exercise power by controlling three ways of generating immense profits, okay? The first is debt, meaning finance and gambling, okay? The second is through slavery, meaning prostitution, human trafficking. The second thing. And the third thing is drugs, okay? So listen, going back to Chinese history, Britain did fight the opium wars in order to enforce drugs onto China. And it was actually a profitable endeavor. And you create the entire global financial system off the opium wars. And so did that system go away? I don't think it went away. I think that it went away. I think that it went away. I think that it went away. I think that it went away. I think that it went away. I think that it went away. I think that it went away. I think It's still a money laundering operation. So if you are Trump, and you really wanted to destroy the global

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deep state, if you really want to destroy the state of London, what you do is you attack what makes money, right? You attack their drug -smoking operations. So when Trump says that we're bombing these drug smugglers, and everyone's like, well, no, no, no, they're fishing vessels. I actually think Trump's telling the truth in this instance. I think they are actually bombing drug smugglers. And so they're trying to destroy the drug -smuggling apparatus of the world. And that's possibly why they're talking about also intervention in Nigeria or wherever, okay? So I think that is actually the grand play here, to weaken the global steep state by destroying their money -making operations. And so I don't think Trump will actually invade Venezuela. I think this is all bluster. And I think that, but you'll see continual actions against drug smugglers around the world. That is what I think is going on.

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That is very interesting. Can I just say, I live in London. I have here, I've lived here since the sixties. The symbols of wealth created from the opium wars are everywhere. Many of the

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financial institutions in London that are so famous to this day, I'm not going to name them, but you might see all the symbols of wealth created from the opium wars. I hope you'll find the symbols in London that are so famous in London. I think you will find the symbol in Berlin, the symbol of wealth created from the opium wars. That might lead to legal issues.

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But if you go back into their prehistory or their early history, you will find that a lot of it does come from that, from what happened, the opium wars and the trade in opium in China, which of course people in China remember extremely well. The British don't remember it, anything like as well just to say. That is interesting. Does that explain however this very very strange story about fentanyl and I I'd like to bring in China now because China is the uh Colossus I I've always myself felt that in the end everything that America does at the moment is ultimately about China I don't know whether you agree with this but that's certainly my own view that um the conflict in in Ukraine in Russia in Iran ultimately if we come to that it's all ultimately about China and about the challenge that Americans perceive as China posing where does this whole fentanyl thing come

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from and because um I I completely discount the idea that China is in fact involved in fentanyl smuggling I think that makes no sense to me at all and I've seen no evidence to support that play and yet it is endlessly repeated and widely believed and Trump himself uh claims it and he's posed tariffs on China in connection with it how does that fit into what you've just been saying yeah so I think that

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the infrastructure financial infrastructure you had for the opium Wars is now is now underpinning all global drug trade including fentanyl so there are definitely Chinese Nationals involved in fentanyl fentanyl trade um the government okay the government would not uh support such an endeavor uh so these are Chinese secret societies Chinese criminal organizations um that are um producing some the precursor chemicals necessary but but it's a global Network and and you're actually right in that uh most of the federal federal uh smuggling is probably done by Deep State actors like the CIA like like I'm just guessing I I don't know okay but but um but the because drugs are profitable you can imagine that multiple uh these state actors are involved and um there's a lot of money money laundering going around I mean it's a very sophisticated system that they have and so whether or not you whether you um smuggle opium whether where

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you smoke whole fentanyl it's the

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same system let's let's talk about China because China is very different from the United States I mean the Americans are very very busy all the time they're very um I mean there's almost feverish activity activity in the Middle East activity in uh Europe as we've just been discussing activity in Latin America in all sorts of places China by contrast remains very very calm and very still is this is this how China plays yeah um there's a friend of mine who is an academic by the way British academic and he reminded me about you know the Chinese idea of was it no action the the Taoist thing that you remain still yeah can you can you can you discuss

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this yeah so um I'm not sure if you had a chance to read Romans of the Three Kingdoms um that is the source of absolutely I have I've got it over there yeah yeah so you know Juga lamb um is considered like the greatest military strategist in Chinese history and he's able to foresee the future the strategies that he develops are just extremely sophisticated um uh extremely extremely intricate um but what he did was he launched a series of invasions against his enemy and all his enemy did was to sit back and let Dugalem overextend and um ultimately retreat okay so that is the defining example of why it's important to let your enemy do all the work okay because your enemy if they do all the work they're going to make all the mistakes and you should just sit back and you win um you just respond slightly to their maneuvers so you know

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Dugalem he had all these strategies he had he amassed all these forces but you know when you actually move against an enemy um you're much more likely to make mistakes than you just sit back and defend so that's the entire Chinese concept of geopolitics

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sit back and win very very very different from the American and and Western one but um let's just turn now to the events that are taking place because we talked about Iran we talked about Russia we talked about the conflicts in these places um is China going to be completely inactive in relation to them let's just assume let's just look forward to an American invasion of Iran and I agree by the way there are pressures for this um we've been talking about this many times I mean an attack I still believe an attack on Iran is going to come at some point maybe not this year as I once thought but sooner or later it is going to come and it's difficult to see um how that is going to play out but if there is an attack on Iran what would China do would it just remain passive or waiting for the Americans to

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burn themselves out or would he take action as he did in Korea

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as it also did of course in Vietnam right so um China right now is heavily reliant on Iran uh right because China imports um all this oil and a third of its food so um if a war breaks out in the Middle East then China is in a very very unstable situation its economy could face collapse so China will need to make preparations and it will need to make conditions plans right now the chinese military is not equipped to fight wars overseas it does not have a blue water navy um it has no experience fighting wars overseas it doesn't have the supply lines logistics networks the command and control centers um to fight a war as far away as iran but i think that the iranians have given assurance to the chinese that iran doesn't really need any help right because let's just let's just imagine what an actual invasion would look like if americans

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were to invade iran america could in the first four weeks occupy a great deal of of iran um america could knock out the um air defenses america could establish forward operating bases very very quickly because the american military is equipped for our uh for shock and awe for you know these blitzkrieg offensive and um there's very little that iran uh could do to stop this sort of offensive once america is embedded in uh iran based on the topography america would have a lot of issues with logistics with resupply um and at this point if iran were to engage in a guerrilla warfare using drones to strike at america american supply lines then the war's over um i mean you've got 100 000 200 000 american military in the air and you're not going to be able to fight a war in iran and you're not going to be able to fight a war in iran

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and you're not going to be able to fight a war in iran and you're American soldiers in iran they can't resupply um it's it's hard to reinforce them and they're all spread out and they have absolutely no sense of strategy they don't know what to do i mean the war is basically over right so at so if this is a situation i think this is the most likely scenario what would china need to do in this sort of situation what would russia need to do um you know and russia is going to overextend uh united states in ukraine anyway right because Because while this war in Iran is happening, the United States is not going to leave Ukraine. It's still going to fight in Ukraine. And it's very likely that the United States is also engaged in a civil war at that point. There's all this domestic turmoil. So I'm not really sure what role China would play when America has chosen this path of self -destruction.

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That's interesting because, again, I know a little bit about Iranian history. And, of course, this is an enormous country. And, again, I think people in the West underestimate the size of Iran and its complexity and the difficulty of its geography. And it's very, very mountainous. It's got great cities, but it's also a place where you could absolutely withdraw into the mountains. I mean, it's Afghanistan multiplied with enormously, a much, much more sophisticated, culture and a culture of resistance, and a culture of resistance as well. Can I ask you about a discussion that our grotesquely, comically incompetent European high representative, Kaya Callas, is supposed to have had with Wang Yi, who is China's foreign minister? It's this is basically derives from a story that appeared in the South China Morning Post. But I'm not sure how reliable it is, but it's been widely circulated and publicized in Europe, which is apparently Kaya Callas is alleged to

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have told Wang Yi in apparently a difficult meeting that went on for hours and in which she lectured him about every conceivable thing and in which even Wang Yi started apparently to become impatient over the course of the meeting. But anyway, she apparently asked him to put. Pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine on basically Western terms. And according to this claim that appears, Wang Yi responded that this is absolutely not what China is going to do because doing that would simply set the scene for the West to come after China once they finished with Russia. Is this true? Or at least maybe because we don't know. I mean, we're not. Neither of us was there at the meeting. But do you feel that this could have been true?

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So Americans are discussing a new military policy cost, strategic sequencing. Right. So, like, you know, let's end the war in Ukraine so we can move against Iran and then China. Right. And then the Russians are like, well, then all that means is that you'll circle back to us eventually. Right. So, like, we're not going to agree to end this war in Ukraine. So, I mean, like, given the landscape, Russia, China and Iran, we're not going to stick together because they know that if one of them falls, everyone else falls. It's all strategic sequencing. It's all saying, like, you know, who they take out first so they can move on to the next target. So it sounds to me like a very plausible conversation. It seems to me the European onward would be arrogant enough, silly enough, and short -sighted enough to make this sort of demand. And the Chinese response is very much in line with diplomatic protocol.

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China is not going to abandon Russia. So that it can be, you know, targeted later on. And right now, Iran, Russia and China recognize that they need to stick together against the American empire or they'll fall one by one.

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The idea of strategic sequencing, which is becoming very widespread, as you rightly say, in American strategic circles, originates with a man called Aaron West Mitchell, who uses history in a very different way from the way that you do, Professor Jiang, and the way I do as well. And I don't think he understands history at all, but he is apparently a very close friend of Elbridge Colby, who is the assistant secretary of war, I presume we must now call him. And he is somebody who is particularly well known as a China hawk and who basically does see things very much about conflict with China, which is something that I think is very, very important. But the idea is you, instead of taking on all your enemies at once, you take them on one by one on the assumption that they will not notice what you're doing and that they won't respond, which is very strange. But

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anyway, bringing us back to this, though, Elbridge Colby, and this is basically my last question, by the way, for today, because we're no doubt going to have many conversations. But Elbridge Colby is now apparently. Talking about hemispheric defense, that the United States is overextended, that the game with China is in some way lost. There's been a new report by the Rand Corporation, which talks about trying to get to some kind of understanding with China and that the United States needs to concentrate instead on defense. Of its own hemisphere, its own sphere of influence, North America and South America. And we've had talk about creating a new fleet, a special fleet with armored warships that are going to defend the hemisphere. Is there any prospect that that is indeed what the United States might do? I mean, it goes against all of the other trends that we are seeing for the United States to involve itself in lots of other places.

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Yeah. So my gut reaction is that they're going to throw a lot of things at the wall and nothing's going to stick because right now the American military bureaucracy is not capable of pivoting, of reprioritizing. They're kind of stuck where they are, which is to fight wars everywhere without any issue to objectives. So it gets involved in these silly wars, can extricate itself, and then it doubles down. And that's been the situation for a long time. And they feel as though they succeeded. Because remember. The American military industrial complex is a very corrupt institution that leeches off the nation state. So Julian Assange said it best. The point is not to have successive wars. The point is to have never -ending wars. So I mean, I don't think people recognize the corruption in the American military complex, right? And again, the problem is America can feel no consequences for these disastrous wars overseas. So what if Europe falls?

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So what if America gets defeated in Iran? Yeah. The Western Hemisphere is completely self -sufficient. Worst case scenario, America just, you know, is itself in the Western Hemisphere and it's not an issue for America. So America continues to make all these silly strategic mistakes and is not capable of long -term strategic planning. And the corruption within the military is endemic. And there's really no way out for them.

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I'm going to finish there. But just to add to that about corruption. Because that is another major story. story in um you can take from history um if we talk about Athens in the 5th century corruption gets completely out of control there and starts to influence decision making and it also happens in Republican Rome and by the way it happens in Britain too right towards the end of the 19th

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so I won't offend you because you're an Athenian but remember once they start being corrupt they

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never stop no no that's it it becomes it becomes it becomes the organizing principle around which all decisions ultimately end up being made that is the reality of corruption which I've seen uh I've seen how it plays out myself so I know all about that Professor Chiang um you have been Marvelous if I may say this has been a wonderful program um I'm going to stop now what we like to do when we have have you know our conversations and the conversation between myself and well yourself in this case what we do is we we allow a few minutes about 15 20 minutes maybe for some of our uh viewers to put comments and Alex I'm gonna if you're right with that yeah thank you thank you thank you I've got

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the questions queued up and on the corruption with with Athens and with Greece yeah it never ends it never ends that's for sure we know we notice it today so uh from uh 100 uh multi -polarity pet can be given a super boost if India and China bury their differences and focus on trade and investment alas respective media for animosity so India and China burying their animosity what

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do you think about that Professor yeah no I I think that it'd be wonderful if India and China were to um come together unfortunately there's a lot of historical animosity between the two and also there are some geopolitical realities that cannot be ignored so for example the type of Tibetan Plateau provides um fresh water to a lot of these Asian countries and so there's always going to be some geopolitical rivalries between India and China in fact India would see China as the immediate geopolitical threat to itself so I I don't think that's something that can be uh papered over

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um from uh Ivan Markov I'm so happy to see Professor Chang on the Duran this is awesome you need to watch his lecture on civilization definitely need to watch that lecture from

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you guys so guys um I did a lecture on homework today okay so I I don't like to prove myself but you two will enjoy Homer like my lecture on Homer yeah I'm sure you're at home but you'll enjoy my

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my take on Homer fantastic lectures by the way on uh on his channel from Sahewa 100 Professor Chang what's the mood like in China do they feel like they want to back de -dollarization support for

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the Global South reprashmon with India yeah so the mood in China it's very complex um and especially after covid because remember after covid the Chinese economy did take a major hit consumer confidence is not that high right now so you know I think Chinese people just want peace in the world um Chinese are very much afraid of what's happening in Ukraine um they're very concerned about what could happen in the Middle East so um Chinese people are just praying for for peace they're praying for people to be more like Chinese people reasonable pragmatic and willing to negotiate

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from Nikos I hope Professor Chang doesn't think Russia is weak because they move slow according to grok Russia is considered a superpower just not as big as

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China I think Russia is the most dominant military in the world right now I don't think China Russia is weak at all so Russia is slow but it's slow because they um specialize in artillery warfare and also Russia wants to minimize um civilian casualties as well as um destruction of critical infrastructure uh electricity grids uh water supplies because the Donbass the Russian Sea Don pass is part of Russia right so Russia wants to govern Donbass after the war so so that's why Russia is being very methodical and slow in the process so so I don't think Russia is weak at all in fact I I would say that given what's happened these past four years Russia has proven itself to be the most dominant military in the world I think that if NATO and the United States were to get together and fight Russia in Ukraine then I would bet Russia

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would win from uh chunky monkey if the AI bubble suddenly bursts and subsequently Trump presides over the economy what is the likely geopolitical impact yeah so that's a big concern right now uh

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where the AI um is clearly a bubble um it's um overextended it doesn't make any money like like people don't recognize that chat GPT um they don't make any money in fact they lose money hand over fist um and so it's very likely the bubble will pop and I also think that it's very likely that the collapse will be engineered create as much social chaos as possible in other words I think that social unrest will be instigated and if because if there's social unrest then um Trump can invoke the insurrection act he can deploy the National Guard everywhere so I think that what's happening United States is a very volatile situation and you would think that given all this chaos in the United States the United States would retrench right would sort of like draw back from its foreign commitments but you know if you study history it's the complete opposite if there's internal chaos

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the Empire lashes out

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out overseas so um we're in for a rough ride hmm from uh fuzzy balls is the United States intentionally bankrupting as many European countries as possible to force them to get

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American loans and buy American bonds so um that's a good question um I don't know if Americans are that clever actually um I I think it's just like Americans are just used to like doing things not they're not that bright okay the people control uh the American foreign policy apparatus they're not that bright

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um I hate to say that from uh Geo Stone how would the world react if Venezuela are able to sink an aircraft carrier with the Russia or Chinese weapon how would the U.S ever recover um I don't think

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Venezuela would ever do that um that that's I mean the United States would respond with nuclear weapons if that would happen because it'd be a tremendous loss of face for the United States um I think that um I think it's very likely that the United States actually launched a ground invasion of uh Venezuela and if there's a ground invasion then Venezuela will choose to fight a guerrilla war as opposed to like a uh you know like a kinetic war head -on because you would get totally destroyed by

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the American military if you would do that from Mark Hewitt people talk about the neocons Rubio Kellogg whispering in his ear but forget the influence of Susie Wiles acting as a gatekeeper for the neocons what do you want absolutely yeah about Susie Wiles the yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah

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absolutely absolutely she um um right now the Trump camp is very much divided right uh between the American firsters and the neocons and uh Susie Wiles um she has um a notorious background um she is very close with the Zionists um she's very close with the military industrial uh complex that Trump's policies are aligned with with with the Zionists yeah no I know I I I think she's very

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good at what she does all right uh two more questions is that all right uh yeah absolutely great two or three more questions from from Jay Basin what does the world look like past the

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special military operation um so again I think that there'll be a showdown uh in Odessa so I think Odessa will be the final battle um after Odessa I see Civil War um political collapse in Europe I see Europe changing sides um after new governments come in uh because they want um this exploitation to to end they want these immigrants to to leave um uh Europe um but you know this timeline drags on right because remember Russia fights a war really slowly and encirclement of Odessa would be a very drawn -out process um so um we we don't know I I it's hard for you to say what happens after um Odessa the big question for me is how long putting can go on for because Putin is really in my mind um a strategic genius he's able to foresee things far ahead he's able to control a major event uh he's a force of stability

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um in the world so um I don't know what would happen if he were to leave the world stage um so so that's my concern actually interesting all right from

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locals our locals uh chat from Jeffrey Brown when Biden lets slip that China isn't going to eat your lunch China is not a hegemonic aspirin power and the former Australian Prime Minister Keating has basically said that China is our future economic partner here in Australia above and beyond the U.S and the EU

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what is our way forward in Australia to go against the narrative um so you know China does not have geopolitical ambitions um you know it it doesn't have the sort of a fashion spirit that um the Westerners have right I mean like Germany um England America these are all very Faustian countries that want to exert itself globally China is very happy being China China doesn't want to extend itself overseas so China wants actually to be friends with everyone it wants to be friends with Russia it wants to be friends with the United States it wants to be friends with Australia so I don't know why Westerners obsessed with this narrative that China is going to take over the world Chinese aren't interested in taking over the world uh Chinese are very interested in trading with everyone um it sees global trade as a source of uh both peace and prosperity so China is very much

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interested in meeting meeting the current global uh order um one based on trade so um so if I'm Australia then I would trade as much as

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possible with um with China and from Elsa callus quoted a Japanese think tank and told that opinion research in China show that the people don't support Russia in the SMO I asked just for fun

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is callus right okay um she's right so so let me explain why the American system is really really clever okay 1980s um China was still close from the world but then you but during this time was really popular at least pirated DVDs showing these American movies and Chinese would buy up these pirated DVDs and play it at home okay and for them for Chinese because this is right after cultural Revolution right these pirate DVDs represent a revelation it was like the Bible to them and it represents them to like the promised land and it sort of brainwashed them into thinking that America really is the promised land and so there's always been this good will among ordinary Chinese towards America I think it's a problematic uh belief I think it's delusional um but America did that does soft power really well okay that's why America is able to give so much crap because um it's

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uh it has Hollywood it has this popular culture that's been able to brainwash a lot of young people around the world and it's been very effective in China someone wants to know Professor

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Chang if you have uh lectures on uh on the Civil War or on the future Civil War I don't know just speaks about the Civil War I guess uh maybe the future Civil War oh right yeah so yeah no I I do

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have a lecture specifically on that so um it's called the second American Civil War and it's on my channel um and it's part of my um geo strategy lectures and I think it's number um 11. it's just on YouTube just write down second American Civil War predictive history and and you will see it all

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right and one one last one from Ronnie and kiddo a common question the second Athenian League partially revived the Dalian League for one last time but not for long ending the wars between

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Athens and its allies once again yeah um I I don't know that much much about the second Athenian League um but I I I do know that you know um during the Peloponnesian War Athens became corrupt and it still had the greatest Navy in the Mediterranean it still had uh leading generals um really um bright individuals but never really recovered the glory that that it had during

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Pericles so um yep all right uh Alexander anything well that's better no I well just just that was a

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fantastic life yeah yeah it's the fourth century it's after the it's after the defeat of Athens it becomes brutal and tyrannical and people they have to come together around Athens so it's part of that history but it didn't last very long and uh um it caused all kinds of megalomania in Athens to come back and led to the disasters of the later fourth century but this is a long historical topic to discuss some other time um I just wanted to say this has been an amazing program and I think we've all enjoyed it hugely and I think we've also learned an awful lot and Professor Chang let's do some more yeah absolutely it's been a lot of fun I

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love talking about the Peloponnesian War so to be able to talk it for for this long I'm very very

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happy that was a fantastic live uh thank you so much for joining us predictive history everybody is the channel it is in the description box down below I will also add it as a pinned comment as well thank you Professor Chang for joining us on the Duran thank you thank you take care all right Alexander let's let's answer whatever remaining questions we have absolutely a lot of a lot of good questions left of course a fantastic live stream absolutely very very interesting um talking about uh very interesting all right Haruko thank you for that membership gifted five Duran memberships I still can't figure out what that what that means gifting memberships but thank you let's see from Nikos Alex doctor's camp of nonsense I see this recently doctor is whining Levon is whining in others um there's another part one second I do agree with your criticisms of President Putin he over invested in Trump

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he's trying to prevent the West from starting World War III and blowing us up I watched Jim Jatris yesterday saying that Russia should strike a British base in Cyprus and at the same breath saying that World War III might happen a couple more parts Alexander I keep saying it the people but no one is listening what do you think is going to happen if Russia responds they want that they want to invade the West is bankrupt they need Russia's resources and if they can't get them they'll rather destroy the world they'll be safe

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in their bunkers well an awful lot to unpack here I mean when I think doc Gilbert doctor has gone wrong is that I think that he imagined that there is a political challenge in Moscow to Vladimir Putin and his position as president of Russia and as leader of the country I didn't see any sign of that whatsoever I have been following uh first Soviet and then Russian politics since the time when I was at University because that was what I started I studied American history and I studied Soviet history and Russian history and I always retained an interest in this and when there is a power struggle in Moscow you can always see the signs I mean that they are very very obvious to outsiders there is nothing like that happening in Moscow now and I think this is where as I said um Gilbert doctor went wrong that doesn't mean that there isn't debate

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and discussion and sometimes quite heated argument and I think there was a lot of arguments um last uh last summer um in ahead of the Alaska Summit meeting between Putin and Trump I think a lot of people in Moscow were saying to Putin this meeting has not been prepared properly we're already making concessions in advance of any commitments from the Americans and we shouldn't be doing that and I think as the weeks and months passed after Alaska those arguments gained Force in Moscow and I think they're now pretty much in the Ascendant so I I think we're past that period actually now just to say this yesterday there was another meeting of the Security Council in Moscow and we've had quite a lot of information about it it was very interesting because all of the big people were there all the heavy hitters apart from Lavrov for some reason I think he's away um but

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anyway all of the heavy hitters were there all of the heavy hitters were there all of the heavy hitters were there all of the heavy hitters were there all of them and they were all talking about that they were all talking about nuclear testing and the point was we don't understand what the Americans are up to we don't understand whether we're supposed to take these comments of Trump seriously or not but the consensus that everybody including Putin came to is that we um we've learned now our lesson that um if the Americans start talking in this belligerent and confrontational way it is likely to lead to something and the Russians took a first major step towards preparing for the possibility of the resumption of nuclear tests so I think this debate has been resolved and it was very interesting to see how Putin handled the entire discussion because he didn't at any point talk about

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um diplomatic Outreach my friend Donald any of that sort of thing there was no hint of it in this discussion yesterday so I think we now have a consensus that has developed in Moscow essentially if you like within the argument the people who won the argument are the hardliners and I think this is now if I can call them hard lines the realists perhaps would all the skeptics maybe might be the best word of all they've won um I think even Putin has come around to this and the Russians have made it absolutely clear after that meeting yesterday that if there is a resumption of nuclear testing by the United States Russia will be there it will resume testing itself and at the end of any possibility of any kind of detente or rapprochement or return to nuclear arms control between the Russian and American superpowers this is a topic which Alex and I are

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definitely going to discuss in more detail in a more dedicated program we touched upon this in in a video last

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week as well Alexander and and how a lot of Trump's moves are are there to to to emulate what Reagan did during the Cold War yes in the belief that this is going to bankrupt Russia another nuclear type of of arms race is going to bankrupt Russia yes exactly yeah exactly which is

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by the way a misunderstanding a misjudgment of what Reagan was actually doing as people who worked with Reagan people like Chas Freeman uh um the ambassador who's the name I've forgotten the one who was in uh Moscow at that time um um and if uh people who actually worked with Reagan are constantly trying to explain and point out that Reagan did not see confrontation with Moscow in the way that people think he did on the country he always wanted to work finally towards peace agreements with the Russians and that the end of the Cold War was successfully negotiated on that basis yeah uh Nico says so either Russia will

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absorb the blows faith in Putin will diminish and he'll be replaced by another guy willing to respond or he responds himself either option leads to nuclear war but go ahead push back on everything I said it's not like we are dealing no no I associate that's they that say this openly I I

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don't think so I think what will happen again I don't think that the demand in Moscow was for them to start taking very aggressive steps on the battlefield you know against the United States you know blowing up carriers and attacking bases in Cyprus and doing those kind of things I think the point that the argument was much more calibrated why are we making concessions about ceasefires in herson region and zaporozhye why are we engaging Trump in these long discussions and negotiations when ultimately they're not going to lead anywhere what we're doing instead is we're putting ourselves in a false position where we're making concessions or appearing to make concessions which will simply lead to further demands let's stick to the policy that is succeeding now which is fighting the war and winning it and that's what we should do um so I I don't think to repeat again this of any attempts in Moscow to

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overthrow Putin I think everybody in Moscow understands that a political crisis at this time in a war acting against a massively popular and widely respected leader inside Russia a leader who also is widely respected around the world who's a friend of C C who's a friend in narendra Modi that this would be a catastrophic mistake and besides all of the people who we're talking about the fedev Shoigu they're all loyal to Putin um there's no sign as I said that there is a crisis of that kind in Moscow but that doesn't mean that they always agree with what he thinks and does they're not yes men that's the difference between the Russian government and some of the governments that we see in other places yeah and

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and Putin can say you know we tried everything with with Trump exactly we exhausted all our options we tried everything and and we still got um sanctions and we still got a return to to demanding a ceasefire exactly exactly so yeah um Bobby Jane welcome to the draft Community SCG Matthew says how can Europe even contemplate a war it has absolutely nothing to fight with and

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the people hate the leaders you know something um in any rational world I would completely agree with you listen to the people who lead Europe today did they strike you as being rationed did they strike you as being connected to reality because they don't come across that way to me once upon a time not very time not very long ago actually i assumed that realism would ultimately prevail in europe and i was completely wrong about it now i look at them i look at kaya carlos i listen to ursula von der leyen my god god help me i listen to emmanuel macron these people have completely lost touch all connection to reality they inhabit their own bubble and they are always working each other up and pushing each other to ever more extreme outcomes um gerhard schroeder the last man who was a proper german chancellor gave um testimony to a investigation that's been carried

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out in by the state of mecklenburg about nordstream pipelines and i haven't watched it but i've managed to get quite a lot of indications about what happened and the sanity and rationality of schroeder as compared with everyone else i think what everyone's showing from what i could tell he didn't give an inch and they all came out sounding and looking hysterical and ridiculous

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sanjeva says two thumbs up for alex and alexander thank you for that jungle gin says is predictive history based on or related in concept to isaac asimov's idea of psycho history from his foundation

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is best place to find out more i suppose so i mean uh um i i think asimov if i have to be frank took it much too far i think that um i think he he probably took the views that you know every you can actually work look at the past and assume that what happened in the past is also going to happen again there's a very very famous novel in english uh english novel which uh the very first line is past is another country people do things differently there and i think that's something one always has to remember we are not fifth century athenians but we can nonetheless learn a lot from what fifth century athenians did uh aquedas 1907 says alex please invite simon

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dixon he has the most insightful and comprehensive view of world geopolitics that i've heard in the last four years eye -opener and the big aha moment okay good yes definitely um thank you for that recommendation uh gonzo 420 welcome to the grand community chunky monkey says is it plausible

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that putin is a billionaire no i can tell you for an absolute fact that he isn't and i can say this conclusively because about a couple of years ago i actually did a massive investigation of my own trying to get to the bottom of how rich a man really is and i came to the conclusion that he's not rich at all

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uh zizi carayani's thank you for that super sticker from matthew will the russians respond to storm shadows outside of ukraine well i don't know possibly but i mean

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uh we'll we'll see what will happen and we will see what the united states actually does i mean he mustn't put any reliance on anything that trump says but for the moment there's a lot of he seems to be veering against missile strikes against Russia I think Putin gave him a very very strong warning about this and for the moment at least he seems to be hitting it

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Mariana thank you for that super sticker uh from gonzo 420 stellar show from uh is it possible that Trump will face criminal charges for the extra judicial killings as it has come to light two people survived the attack how could the U.S attack be anything other than terrorism upside upside world sucks I know a lot of people are talking about this including

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some people in the military um I don't myself believe it's ever going to happen I mean if we're talking about criminal prosecutions of the United States against politicians they are invariably based on um the kind of things that we have seen uh their reflections of political struggles within the United States I think that the political class in the United States will never prosecute one of its own even someone like Trump because of violence committed overseas it's never going to happen Eric hatchet thank you for that super chat

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uh chunky monkey says why does Alex calls olenski olenski because he banned disease that's what I do he banned the Z way back in the beginning of the SMO he banned the letter Z Mark Hewitt says after mamdani's win do you expect an exodus from New York how would that affect the U.S long term

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well who knows um I I am by the way I'm very underwhelmed by mamdani I've listened to him I don't think he's going to matter very much actually I don't think he's going to change very much he's going to make things worse in New York of that I'm confident by the way I don't think he's uh uh somebody who's going to be very interested in doing much that will really improve the situation in New York at all and I don't think he'll be there very long the mistake people will make is if they react to him in such a way that it makes him look like a more important and National figure than he properly or truly is that's my idea about which they already are which they already are I mean they're already making it can't help themselves

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of course the United States is not going to invade Venezuela with 16 000 troops after they gave Russia China and Iran a 30 -day heads up so they could set weapons and defense systems and set up a defense I wouldn't be so sure hmm from um Jim is Poseidon a game changer yes uh it is I I I actually had um

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um an email from somebody who is somebody who has knowledge about these things and this person thinks that Poseidon is an even bigger change a much bigger changer than the buddhabesnik is so um apparently it's untrackable and effectively indestructible and there is no

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there is no obvious counter to it jungle gin says Trump will not be prosecuted for actions as president as the SCOTUS has given blanket indemnity to presidential actions well there you go uh Jamila says the United States is a leader in killing Christians or in killing Christians around the world but now Trump cares about Nigeria please speak about it thank you Alexander and Alex well I think we need to discuss

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the whole situation in Africa altogether but I you're absolutely correct about this I mean the the in in the sense that the United States has this unbelievably selective approach to human rights violations so uh Christian communities across the Middle East as we know have been absolutely annihilated they've been destroyed in Iraq for example the Assyrian church I mean it's been driven out of existence nobody seems to care uh suddenly we discover the plight of Christians in Nigeria we discover persecution

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of Christians when it suits us uh Mr J4616 says this is the equivalent of seeing my favorite cartoon character in another cartoon that I liked as a kid thanks you all thank you uh let's see if we're talking about China today since you're talking about China today they and India are hypocrites they play it tough now while the condemned the smo and stopped buying oil well

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I I don't think they have stopped I mean yeah I I first of all I mean if we're talking about China um the China and Russia just had a major economic Summit of course it's received absolutely no attention I mean you get you get you get anonymous comments appearing in the book about how Chinese refiners are not buying Russian oil and the meeting between the Russian prime minister in Beijing leading a huge economic delegation and the Chinese president Xi xinping that gets no attention at all I mean it's a good example if you like of the extraordinarily distorted news flow that as I said these anonymous things from who knows whom get attention and you know the major economic summit gets none um anyway over the course of this meeting between Xi Jinping and mishustin uh they agreed that they would enhance and accelerate cooperation including specifically in energy so I I don't think China

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is stopping purchases of Russian oil I think on the country it's more likely over time to ramp them up as for India I think they're more vulnerable and I think that they are doing all kinds of maneuvers but the Indian oil Corporation which is a state owned entity has in fact uh bought uh oil from Russia um it's made it's done advanced contracts buying oil from Russia in December which is after the luke oil rosneft sanctions come into play so it looks as if India is going to continue to buy Russian oil also and a whole slew of announcements in Russia and India about new economic and industrial deals between India and Russia and of course Putin is going to India in a few weeks time sir mug's game says

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after seriously pissing off 800 officers Trump wants to launch a military operation I'm sure his plans have been leaked to everyone everywhere I wouldn't be surprised I'm sure you're right actually well Maron says maroni says does Russia have rare Earths yes has it an industry yes it of course in

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the Soviet times it absolutely did it had to um my understanding is that it's been massively run down like much else after the Soviet Union collapsed um they now have a program to revive it

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uh we'll see what comes all right uh fuzzy ball says you don't have to read my last super chat joke let me find that super chat let's see pause one second uh zariel says I disagree Asimov Asimov's node as as well as most historical academics the deal in cycles will attest to it's not predictive or psychological it's just what it is cycles even the Bible quotes nothing new under the Sun oh sure

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enough nothing you under the Sun indeed but as I said um where I think people can sometimes go wrong is if they make it a little bit too much like a sort of statistical science and there I think you you need to be a little careful but that's not what Professor tiang does

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by the way just to make that clear Klaus says uh the Russians fear a false flag where the ukrainians together with NATO are creating a new Chernobyl in zaporozhye what do you think I think

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that's absolutely right but the Russians have been extremely on top of the possibility of false flags beyond the special military operation they warned about them many times Nico says who would have

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thought we'll have a communist mayor in New York but instead of the hammer and sickle he wears the

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pride flag like a true neo -marxist well he can't be he can't be a communist because he also says that he's a Muslim and Islam and communism at least of the Marxist Leninist variety are completely

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incompatible with each other I I simply make this point because I think we should be we should use words like communist uh and indeed Marxist I think we should use them correctly uh he is a socialist

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of an extremely threadbare kind as far as I'm concerned having as I said once been that myself I should know he's a rapper too he's a rapper as well exactly he's clearly a leftist I mean of that there is no no dispute at all but I mean he's the the kind of leftism that he's going to uh um um engage in is going to be absolutely chaotic and it's going to discredit leftism even further in the United States including amongst the people

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of New York just to say Monty 10 54 says yes the American military industrial complex is corrupt but why is that so is it because it's become the American rentier class's main cash cow

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yes I think so I think also there is something else and here I'm to um say something which i suspect some people might disagree with but i think that another reason is that the american military industrial complex was grafted onto an american polity that really wasn't structured for it i mean america was not about a 19th and early 20th century america was not about having really industrial complexes or even large militaries i mean if you go back into the early 19th century they were all about militias in those days so um america has never really had the culture to do big arms production on a continuous basis not just you know for war like the second world war but you know and as an institution of the united states a permanent institution of the united states that was never really what it was shaped for uh pussy balls i think i found the chat that

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you're referring to it's the one with uh dick cheney okay i want i will pass over that chat and it is a there's a good uh good joke uh let's see um john john ski says if taiwan belongs to china then cuba belongs to the us the usa the falklands belong to argentina

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and cyprus belongs to turkey well i i'm not going to get into a discussion of this but why do you say that i mean when has cuba ever been part of the usa i mean when has um um falklands i mean i'm not sure about falklands i'm not going to get into that but cuba has never as far as i know been a part of the usa um until the 1890s taiwan was absolutely part of china and i do think any of that was that's contested actually and the government of taiwan still claims by the way officially that it is the actual government of china just got gonzo 420 thank you for that

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super chat john ski says uh cheney and mccain are embracing in the underworld uh probably iranian kiddo says macedonia garrison was stationed there for a few years and athens permanently lost its navy and had to return samos to the exiled samyans you're completely right

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you have a profound knowledge of ancient history i've said this before uh iranian kiddo i'm very i i am very very impressed as somebody who was brought up in it i am extremely impressed

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nikos says what do you think is the solution do you think with his recent interviews and actions president putin is respected again will this will the dissent continue i think he's always been

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respected um as i said i mean any political system that has the ability to conduct dissent to to have a conversation with itself and even an argument and then come to a consensus and a decision is a healthy system a system where everybody is obliged always to agree with everybody is a system that is certain to decay i i don't think this should be taken as a sign of um crisis it's a sign on the contrary the government in moscow works an awful lot better than government in any western

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country at the present time jungle jin says speaking of africa biafra is re -emerging as a major issue in nigeria i think it's a major issue in nigeria i think it's a major issue in nigeria interesting uh vincent says alexander how would you rate the quality of life in london now i have never been and i'm trying to determine whether it is some sort of dystopian globalist future

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or actually a cool city thanks but i i i have seen some of the reports about london which i think do greatly exaggerate the situation here i mean we are not this is not a dystopian place i mean it is not the hellhole that some people are saying i mean mostly it's a city where most of the population is free and it remains a great city with tremendous things that happen and most parts of it are safe and things of that kind and you know i do want to say that i mean it's still a great city it is got accumulating problems including social problems which are getting worse and worse and which are not being managed properly but it is certainly a place which i i still believe it is worth visiting and seeing and one should come here without fear iranian keto says athens became so powerful as

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a direct result of the persian wars it was in fact during this time in the 5th century bc when a collective greek identity was developed among city -states to counter persia correct entirely true sir mugs game says trump is america's zelensky tv actor elected for peace but winds up extorting friend and foe for money money money two peas in a pod to to uh unfortunately

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unfortunately unfortunately those parallels have some weight behind them that you're making

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chunky monkey says why did ukraine's terrorist attacks stop have they have they stopped i mean

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i'm not aware that they've stopped as far as i'm aware uh they continue just about two weeks ago uh zelensky gave instructions that they should be intensified i mean what what might have changed is that the russians might be more successful in countering them and i have heard reports about this but i don't get the sense that there's been any change in policy or direction on the part of

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ukraine or at least the zelensky government iranian kiddo says taxes collected from city state made athens extremely wealthy parthenon was largely built using funds collected from other greek city -states for mutual defense against persia correct uh nikos says i do research in grok like the multipolar superpowers i found out that greece is the sixth most stressed and depressed nation in 2025. how do we live oh dear um well i i haven't been to greece for

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two years now alex knows it better than me i suppose how do we live it's a good question nikos

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sir muggs game says hey orban hey orban you should have known that the wheels on the bus

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go round and round and round and round well um i i i have to say one of the most um ruthless and cynical things that i've seen over the last couple of weeks is this way which trump has thrown orban under a bus i mean it's it's it's it opposed me actually they'll be meeting in dc and

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trump will flip -flop to a different position and then he'll flip eventually exactly exactly

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but orban must now know that exactly exactly uh ganso 420 says thanks for covering

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the financial side of the wars it's all extremely interesting thank you for that sir mouse game says has anyone seen mandami and jolani in the same room interesting question you know fuzzy ball says lindsey graham is 2025's dick cheney yeah true very true sir sir muggs game says in the finale this says it all iranian kiddo says poseidon the great god mover of the earth and the deep unharvested sea o shaker of the earth timer of the horses savior of the ships the girdler of the earth o blessed one do thou befriend the mariners absolutely one of the most powerful of all

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gods and um well a poseidon earth shaker exactly as you say matthew says god of earthquakes as well by the way a beautiful temple in sunyo as well oh absolutely yes beautiful place to visit uh matthew

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says with this will this all stop short of nuclear war will this happen i think so i i agree with

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that professor chang here i i think that in the end people will draw back governments will draw back and they will avoid doing it um at least the great powers will avoid doing it and i firmly remain of the view that within the militaries including the u.s military uh rational people continue to be in charge of the nuclear weapons i've i mean there's some very unbalanced people within the american military today but the people who are in responsible for nuclear weapons whom i have heard and seen strike me as being extremely clever intelligent wise people jay boston says does zelensky actually know what

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is happening on the battlefield or is he deliberately misleading the west and the people of ukraine his comment about 60 russian soldiers was breathing was breathing for for i

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absolutely it was an extraordinary statement actually you um i i i think there's a bit of both in this i think i think he is obviously misleading everybody i mean there isn't that that is up that is shall we say eighty percent of it but i think twenty percent is is delusion as well i the writing is on the wall but he doesn't want to read it so he closes his eyes and fantasizes as well but eighty percent of it is

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uh deception never forget he's an actor he's an actor and he's uh he's misleading people but he's also starting to believe his his uh his role his uh his uh his own lies that puts it very well yeah julian smith says alexander are you able to clarify why mamdani cannot be both muslim and marxist communist because the two are completely incompatible marxism is a

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materialistic uh um um um um materialistic uh um um materialistic uh um um materialistic uh um um um ideology that denies the existence of the supernatural and ultimately god so how can you be a marxist and a muslim at the same time i know many people try but uh um anybody who has a proper understanding of marxism and by the way i should say i studied marxism and i've had uh many friends uh who've been marxists and i've actually known absolutely real genuine

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communists anyway i can deliver an absolute fact that uh their perspective is a purely and

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completely materialistic one nico says and alex when you are in greece come in haidari sit in polataki so i can come and say hello to you in person we can greet alexander together consider it does says during the mycenaean era poseidon was the most supreme deity in parts of the peloponnese even more important than zeus particularly in thebes pilos and arcadia based on linear

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b tablets found there you are absolutely right again and i should know because again because of my aunt who was minister of culture i got to know an awful lot of the greek archaeologists and

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they i remember them telling me exactly this and iranian kiddo says arcadia and central peloponnese is where god poseidon's cult lived and they believed poseidon was born their cult of the spina was also in arcadia that's been i was the epitaph they used for persephone the daughter of zeus and dimitir nice niece and wife of poseidon absolutely well can i just say arcade you're all

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right about all of that and arcadia is as beautiful the landscape there is as beautiful as people imagine it to be it is really extraordinary it's perhaps the place in greece

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that i find the most lovely fuzzy ball says if one day you hear the europeans praise me know that i have betrayed you samara michelle former president of mozambique wow manti 10 54 says how do you see the europeans reacting to russia reaching odessa will they really get involved militarily themselves will europe really collapse we will see but um if if

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they do decide to intervene it would not surprise me i i think if it was up to the european government to get back to emmanuel mack wrong he would definitely do it uh philip panier thank you for

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that uh super chat elsa says alex you said that stealing russian assets scares investors but isn't freezing the isn't isn't the freezing already a reason not to invest in the eu well yes

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but actually seizing it is a further step beyond that and if if you start doing that if you are actually confiscating outright stealing people's assets then that is a further crossing of an even brighter red line and i think that will shake and alarm people around the world apparently saudi arabia uh is constantly telling the europeans don't even think of doing this thing and it is having an effect apparently i mean it's one of the reasons why france which is many saudi investments has um up to now opposed this thing yeah iranian kiddo says theory

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is that the dorians migrated south to the peloponnese in the late bronze bronze age led to the greek dark age mountainous arcadia held out against the spartans who were of dorian origin they they they preserved their mycenaean culture for longer yes there is there is a lot here i have to

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say there is a lot of argument and uh debate about amongst the um archaeologists about what really did take place and whether there ever was a dorian invasion i'm not going to pretend i know this so i'm going to give a

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pass to this part of your discussion and iranian kiddo says cypriot greek dialect is believed to be closely related to ancient arcadian dialect yes i've heard that too it's a particularly

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ancient dialect uh very ancient indeed and on that note alexander i think we've got

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all the questions answered and that was a great live stream absolutely it was

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well it's a phenomenal live stream and what an erudite one and a different from the ones we do but also very closely related to the kind of discussions we have

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absolutely all right so i have uh professor jang's information in the description box down below i will also add his channel information as a pinned comment i definitely definitely recommend everyone follow uh predictive history which is a fantastic channel thank you to everyone that watched us on uh odyssey on rock finn rumble youtube and a big shout out to our locals community the duran.locals.com you can also find us on substack as well uh alexander is writing articles exclusive to substack and to locals so definitely check uh check out those articles from alexander uh hopefully i can also put together some articles in the future but all the videos also go up on both those uh those communities so uh that that's it we should get back to work alexander and put out some videos huh thank you to our mod thank you to our moderators as well by the way uh thank you

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to uh harry and zariel and peter and uh and reckless abandon as well i think i got to the moderators for today i hope i got all the moderators for today for some reason my chat is not scrolling so i can't see everybody in the moderator list um let's uh let's put up some videos indeed indeed sir one more one more two more two more from sir mug's game to be fair to trump i think he always pulls the rug from under rear admiral lindsey graham thank you for your service senator and irani ankido says coincidentally the first hellenic polytheist temple in 1700 years opened in arcadia just this past march this news truly made me happy oh goodness okay i didn't know i didn't know about this and alexander dirge says time flies yes it does it certainly does and and from iranian kiddo the dorian invasion theory is now dismissed Historians now believe Dorians simply settled there.

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Right, okay. I'm not an expert on this at all. That is too much, too close to archaeology and not close enough to the kind of literary, records -based history with which I'm more familiar. All right.

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Thank you, everybody. Take care. Take care.