---
title: "Jiang Xueqin: New World Order - Iran War Ends U.S. Empire transcript"
description: "Source-synced transcript archive for Jiang Xueqin: New World Order - Iran War Ends U.S. Empire."
source_title: "Jiang Xueqin: New World Order - Iran War Ends U.S. Empire"
published_at: "2026-03-09"
source_class: "interview"
public_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/transcript/"
markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/transcript.md"
text_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/transcript.txt"
source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rTlI_Qwd1I"
data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i.json"
---

# Jiang Xueqin: New World Order - Iran War Ends U.S. Empire transcript

- Source: [Jiang Xueqin: New World Order - Iran War Ends U.S. Empire](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rTlI_Qwd1I)
- Published: 2026-03-09, day precision
- Human transcript page: [/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/transcript/)
- Interview page: [/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/)
- Transcript Markdown: [/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/transcript.md)
- Transcript text: [/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i/transcript.txt)
- Interview JSON: [/data/lens/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-6rtli-qwd1i.json)

## Transcript

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Welcome back. We are joined today by Professor Zhang who uses historical patterns and game theory to predict the direction of geopolitics. Professor Zhang is famous for many things, among some predicting the return of Trump and also the war against Iran, now a second war that is. So thank you for coming back on the program. Thanks Glenn. How do you make sense of this war, though, against Iran? I mean, how do you measure how this war is developing in terms of where the successes or failures are?

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Right. So first of all, Trump has failed to articulate a purpose and a strategy for this war. At first, it was about nuclear and uranium enrichment in the Middle East. It was about nuclear and uranium enrichment in the Middle East. It was about nuclear and uranium enrichment in Iran and the fear that Iran would develop a nuclear weapon. In fact, in Trump's State of the Union address, he said that he would never allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. And both chambers of Congress, both the Democrats and Republicans rose to cheer and applaud. It was really the first time that Congress demonstrated any unity during that speech. It was an extremely political speech. But the problem with that is that the Omani foreign minister, a few hours before the Americans and the Israelis struck Tehran, told us that the Iranians had already agreed to zero uranium enrichment, even for civilian purposes. So the idea that Trump needs to prevent a nuclear weapon, that doesn't hold.

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It is a pretext. And they tried different, many different excuses. And then finally, Rubio said this. Rubio basically said, look, we had to attack because Israel was going to attack first. And then the Iranians would retaliate against both the Israelis and us. So to defend ourselves, we had to preempt Israel and attack first. OK, so they're struggling for a narrative. They're struggling to explain to the American people why this is happening. They're also struggling to contain a fallout because after the Americans and Israelis struck Iranians, the Iranians start to bombard US bases in the GCC. And they closed off the Shard of Hormuz. This is doing tremendous damage to the global economy. So oil right now it's approaching $120 a barrel, $110 a barrel. I'm not quite sure. OK, but this is double from a week ago. And remember, that the Strait of Hormuz delivers most of this oil to the Asian economies of Pakistan, India, China, South Korea, and Japan.

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Japan relies on 75 % of its oil from the Strait of Hormuz. So in about seven to eight months, Prime Minister Takeuchi has informed her cabinet that Japan will be out of oil. And Japan is a manufacturing powerhouse. So this war has been a disaster. And even today, Trump has failed to articulate why the Americans are doing this, what the purpose is, and what the off ramp is. And what we're seeing day by day is pretty rapid escalation. In fact, I think the second day or third day into this war, there were rumors of ground troops. Yesterday, there's rumors that the 82nd Airborne Division of the American army was given deployment orders, meaning that it is possible Americans will choose to airdrop these soldiers into the middle of Iran. For what purpose, we don't know. There's talk of the

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Americans seizing Kharag Island, which is the oil depot of Iran, and which accounts for 90 % of Iranian oil exports. There's talk of the Americans funding proxies. There's talk of using tactical and nuclear weapons. There's talk of a national draft to find 500,000 soldiers for a ground invasion of Iran. So this war is completely out of control. And it's completely unclear what the Americans hope to accomplish with this war.

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Yeah, the narrative, I think, was very poorly planned, even worse than the war has been planned, because it began, as you said, with nuclear weapons, then moved over to ballistic missiles. Then, apparently, they want to help protesters, and it was about the oil that they should be taken out of the hands of Iranians. Then Trump mentioned Iran might take over the Middle East, so we had to go in. And as you said, the Israel thing was interesting, because if the argument is that Israel will attack Iran, then Iran will retaliate against Israel, and I guess Israel and the United States, so they had to go in first. And they're essentially admitting that they're fighting Israel's war, but they can't say that, either. So the ability to find a narrative was kind of poor compared to other wars. Others usually have one narrative, all the media, they organize around it, and everyone obediently repeats the same talking points.

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It hasn't been done well. But this is a war of attrition, though, to a large extent. That is both sides seeking, well, not both, there's many, all sides seeking to exhaust each other. But this is in terms of weapons, ammunition, also spilling into energy and water, if you will. Or just general economics. How do you see who would exalts whom first? Right. So I think Iran is trying to fight a war of attrition where it is putting pressure on the global economy, on the GCC nations.

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Because Iran believes that the GCC nations, especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE, can apply pressure on Trump to end this war. It's really important, from a diplomatic point of view where, at that quickly as possible. By closing on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is trying to pressure the Southeast Asian economies of China, Japan, and South Korea to apply pressure on Trump to end this war as soon as possible. So the Iranians are fighting a war of attrition. Unfortunately, the Americans are fighting a war of destruction. So even though they haven't stated the purpose, it is clear from what is happening on the ground that the Americans and Israelis are intent on complete another destruction of the Iranian government's capacity to deliver basic services to its people. What I mean by that is that they actually struck a desalination plant in Iran and, you know, so you're denying fresh water to the civilian population.

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That is a war crime. Then the Americans struck oil facilities in Tehran. These are civilian oil facilities, so -called 되게. that citizens in Tehran can drive their cars. And if you look at footage from Tehran, it is the apocalypse. There's acid rain. The entire sky is black. And these people have to breathe that air. So they will develop cancer. They'll have birth defects. It's almost like chemical warfare. So if you are just saying this is a war of attrition, that makes no sense. A war of attrition means you embargo Iran economically. Why are you targeting civilians? You know, the first of the war, a Tomahawk missile hit a school in southern Iran and killed about 170 schoolgirls. This is an elementary school. 170 schoolgirls were killed in that. And this war, the way it's being constructed, the way it's being fought, seems to me that the Americans are first and foremost, they're not going to give up.

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They're not going to give up. They're not going to focus on the destruction of Iran as opposed to regime change.

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Yeah. Well, I guess that's a good description of that. Iran is fighting a war of attrition, so time won't be on their side while the U.S. is seeking to destroy the country with its 90 million people inside. So this is quite problematic. But the Iranians, of course, it's limited what they can do to the United States. They can, of course, hit their bases. Yeah. But it seems that Iran is obviously prioritizing going after the Gulf states because that's a good way of creating some pain for the U.S.-led alliance. How vulnerable do you see them being here, though?

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Yeah. So the Gulf states are the great vulnerability of the American empire because Israel, it has an eschatology. Unfortunately, religiously, zealots have taken over the state of Israel. So there are a lot of zealots. So there are a lot of zealots. So there are a lot of zealots. So there are a lot of zealots. They're perfectly okay to die for what they believe in. And they can live in bomb shelters for years and years. That's how strong their faith is. And Israel was designed as an extremely resilient, extremely creative society. So Israel will emerge from this war intact and probably even stronger. But the Gulf states are different. The Gulf states are basically mirages. 50 years ago, these were just deserts. 50 years ago, these were just deserts. 50 years ago, these were just deserts. And for, 50 years ago, these were just deserts. And for, most of human history, the Arabian peninsula was not that inhabited because it didn't have access to fresh water.

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It didn't have much agricultural output. And so it could not sustain a large population. And most were desert nomads engaged in trade. But Pax Americana changed all that because Pax Americana could need an oil to fund its empire. And it could offer protection to the Gulf states. So they, they developed really rapidly. So cities where maybe tens of thousands of people before now are in the millions. And one striking example is Dubai. You know, if you go to Dubai, it's just skyscraper after skyscraper. It is a very glitzy city. And it's trying to be the financial capital of the Middle East. And there are thousands of extremely wealthy individuals who've transferred their savings to Dubai because they believe that they're going to be able to live in the Middle East. And they believe that it's safe, it's comfortable, lots of good Michelin restaurants, lots of good five -star hotels, and are not taxed.

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But this image of Dubai as a financial hub is now shattered by this war. And they'll never recover from this. In fact, we're already hearing rumors of millionaires just fleeing with their wealth. Now they're going to Singapore. Now they're going to Southeast Asia. A bigger problem is this. A bigger problem is that because the Strait of Hormuz is closed, their oil economies have collapsed. They can no longer sell their oil, and they shut down their oil production facilities. What people don't recognize is that the Strait of Hormuz takes GCC oil to Asia, but then it brings back food. The GCC imports 80 % to 90 % of its food supply. So Dubai, the rumor is Dubai will run out of food in about a week's time. So the rumor is that Dubai will run out of food in about a week's time. Then there's the issue of fresh water, where the greatest vulnerability is actually desalination plants.

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So the GCC nations, desalination plants provide about 6 % of all their water needs. And so if these desalination plants are destroyed, then they run out of water in one or two weeks. And this means the entire destruction of the GCC. Now, I mean, destroying desalination plants will be the nuclear option, for Iran. And so I don't think they would use it very lightly. But there's really no coming back from what's happening. I mean, for the longest time, the GCC had a reputation for being safe, for being extremely wealthy. And now that mirage, that illusion has been shattered. And once the illusion is shattered, you can't ever resurrect it again.

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No, I very much agree. Well, the Gulf states, not just the Gulf states, are not just dependent on energy, but the finance, the real estate market, which is propped up by all the expats. But what you're also describing, though, is that is this small monarchy is selling the oils in dollar, and the US in return offering protection. This was also the petrodollar system that replaced Bretton Woods once they closed the gold window. So what do you see being the possible consequences of this? Well, I think it's going to be a very, very, very big consequences for the global economy.

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Right. So what Iran wants to do is basically kick the US out of the Middle East for a lot of reasons. And the main advantage is that once the US leaves, Iran will be able to control the sugar humus. Therefore, it will control trade access for the entire world. And so the Gulf states will basically become client states of the Iranians rather than Americans. And that oil money now will be able to finance the rebuilding of Iran. So that's the end goal or the end game for the Iranians. The problem with empire is the hubris. And so another way of saying this is the empire would rather destroy the world than surrender its power. Right. So the idea that the Americans will just leave the Middle East peacefully is this wishful thinking. Everyone's saying that this war can only lead to the defeat of America. Right. So the idea that

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the Americans will just leave the Middle East so America should just admit defeat right now and then go home and let Israel and Iran settle whatever problems that they have. Like the Middle East is not America's problem. But again, the problem is that America is addicted to the petrodollar. Leaving the Middle East would destroy the petrodollar. And if the petrodollar is destroyed, it would collapse the American economy as well. So America has $40 trillion in debt. And this debt is OK. It's aachment. It is a regular debt. It is just as good as 0.9 % for etapic for the American economy. Stand with the pandemic. The mijn, theISHG, theρηHHGb company is, like the American economy is is sustained by a policy scheme. And so the Gulf states, what they do is they sell their oil, get petrodollars, and then they recycle it back into the American economy mainly by investing into IE into data centers, which is now the main engine of growth for the American economy.

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So the Gulf states were to stop investing in America. The AI financial bubble would burst and with it the entire American economy. America would suffer a much greater depression than the 1930s. That's how dire the situation is for America right now.

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But the United States, though, they must have known that this would be a disaster. I mean, many of the top military people in the United States warned in advance that they would have limited weapons. They would have a limited ability to go on for too long, which of course could explain why they're instead going for burning down Iran if time is essentially on Iran's side. But there's been war games in the past where they showed that they couldn't pull this off. I mean, you had God knows how many American presidents who wanted to attack Iran, but they always knew that, yeah, that's not a good idea. So how do you make sense of this? Because that was my one, when they were building up to this war, sending more and more military hardware to the region. My main reason for thinking this might not happen was it would simply be too crazy.

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The likelihood of success, the amount of things that could go wrong. I mean, it just indicated that they can't possibly go down this path. So why did they? They do have informed people in the United States. We know. So how do you make sense of this?

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Right. So - Again, I agree with you in that this war doesn't make any sense. It's not rational. And everyone knows that America was going to lose this war. The problem is that when empires are in decline, this is just the way they behave. And there's just, the historical record, it's pretty overwhelming in that when empires decline, they lash out against the world. They start these stupid wars. They can't possibly win. They overextend themselves. And the collapse is, terrible for the world. And America very much is an empire in decline. Look at things such as the collapse of the family, look at things such as the collapse of the currency, currency debasement in America is just a tremendous problem. The US dollars are no more worth as much as it was like 10 years ago. The political polarization in America. Congress just cannot function properly. The president has so much power nowadays because Congress has

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basically decided to just not do anything to avoid any political responsibility and so it's destroying the checks and balance systems of the u.s constitution um the economic depression in america is great young people feel as though there's absolutely no hope in the world they refuse to have families they're refusing to invest in the future they gamble all the time and so america is really the end of empire at this point and so what they do is they go and start wars in order to distract people's people's attentions in order to prove to the world that they still have it uh you know they're still the bully in a playground and they can still beat up every other kid even though they're old and they're and they're weak and they're handicapped um and so you know you were talking about iran but like look at what was happening before iran right trump um kidnapped the

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president of the united states and he was like look at what happened before iran right of uh venezuela uh which went which went against national law trump uh deployed his navy in the caribbean and started to bomb drug boats uh which is again again against international law um trump was threatened to annex greenland he was threatening to uh invade canada um he was threatening to attack mexico right now he's embarking on cuba and people people people don't even recognize this is happening because there's so much going on in the world but cuba was dependent on venezuela oil that was its energy supply and now that venezuela has fallen to the americans um the americans have embargoed cuba and so now people don't have access to electricity and they're actually people are starving in cuba um so this is an empire in decline it just lashes out against the world it attacks everyone um and iran

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is just the um most current iteration of this anger and this hubris but this hubris made the americans underestimate the capacity of iran they went in thinking that once they decapitate the regime then the government would fall and what they what the americans didn't recognize was the resilience and resolve of the iranian people well about this imperial decline

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it reminds you of something that emmanuel todd the the french scholar uh argued because uh well again he predicted the collapse of the soviet union already in the 70s by looking at this variables but he also predicted the u.s uh empire was heading towards uh well a similar fate already in the in the early 2000s and he described essentially what he did this uh strange he called it micro militarism this uh this brutal use of military force in an effort to show power when it's obviously draining so it it is an interesting development but you mentioned that the americans are losing if it's a given how do you why do you assess this is this the mainly the focus on on the military hardware at their disposal or is it the lack of a clear objective um well i guess

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regime change will be very hard without the ground troops right um so america right now has several disadvantages um the first major disadvantage is a lack of political will and that just means the lack of a strategy the lack of a purpose uh it cannot unify the american people um in order to make the sacrifice necessary to win this war in fact most americans are against this war right before the war started uh 70 70 to 80 percent americans voiced their disapproval of a possible war with iran um usually when a war starts uh people will rally behind the flag but not in this case most americans are still against the war so the first issue is the lack of political will but if you look at the iranians they believe that this is a struggle of of life and death so they set aside the political differences and they've committed to winning this war

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okay so that's the first um factor political will the second factor is this manufacturing capacity so these past um 30 40 years america went from a manufacturing -based economy to a financial -based economy and they export their manufacturing capacity to china now when you fight a war what really matters is your uh capacity to produce ammunition to replenish your um your munitions uh logistics and america doesn't have manufacturing capacity to fight a long war um in fact what's happening already is that america is cannibalizing munitions from other parts of the world so stuff so um they are now transferring uh munitions from south korea over to the middle east which is stupid to do because you've you've basically um opened more flags uh open more vulnerabilities throughout the world uh so manufacturing capacity is a very important factor on the other hand iran uses drones and ballistic missiles and we know that uh iran is

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able to manufacture about 500 drones a day and quite honestly you you only need to like have 10 drones hit their targets in the middle east uh every single day in order for the gcc to cry uncle right so manufacturing capacity is a very important factor as well and um the third um factor is that america is hamstring by a lot of political considerations so because they lack political will they do not want to take too many casualties right so trump has said that six americans have died in this war so far there's absolutely no way this is true um we are we are having hearing rumors that there are a lot of casualties being flown to germany to try to disguise the fact that uh the middle in the middle east uh many americans are are dying uh but this tells us that america has absolutely no appetite uh to sustain any casualties if

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you refuse to have any casualties how are you gonna fight a war right on the other hand the iranians um are very eschatological um they are very religious they are shia muslim and they're not afraid to die um in fact they're not afraid to die they believe it is the highest honor to martyr yourself for the higher good and uh and the clear example of this is the ayatollah kamanai who was killed in the first day of strikes and you know he could have gone to moscow and he could have hit his bunker but instead he chose to go to his office and carry on with his life because he's 86 years old and he does not want to die afraid of americans and so he set the example that is galvanizing the iranian people just look at some social media footage from iran the iranian people are now extremely energetic extremely galvanized and they

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will fight this war to the bitter end

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yeah i was in tehran last year and i was also a bit well that's one thing that really stood out the culture of martyrdom the way they would put the martyrs uh pictures on the walls and at many places it did this is um you know an important variable but beyond the variables if you want to assess how a country would actually fight and the whole idea of you know killing kamini and now everything will fall into place i mean his son has taken over now and it has to point out that the americans killed his father his mother they killed his wife they killed his sister and they killed his son i mean the ideas trump said well we we will pick the next guy and you know he will have to be acceptable to us you know he will have to be acceptable to us he has to be more favorable to america

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and accommodating and more moderate it doesn't make any sense how can you you know burn down the country and again just if you look at the new leader and slaughter his whole family and then assume that they will just fall in line if you look at the culture in iran again the martyrdom culture which is strong you know you can say amongst shiites in general this was always crazy but for somehow the to have been the assumption. But how do you see though the possibility of this war spreading? Because of course they're attacking US bases, which covers a lot of countries. You have US proxies being used, such as Kurds, which could then trigger a civil war in a country of 90 million people. There's now, I mean, the American and British media, especially they're all up in arms that Russia is giving intelligence to Iran to try to make Trump push harder against Russia in Ukraine, even though this is also a dangerous path.

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I'm not sure to what extent China would get involved. I mean, do you see a pathway here from it becoming a proper regional war or a world war?

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How do you see this? Well, first of all, I don't think there's an off ramp for this war. I think it's very hard to deescalate. The idea that the Americans will just give up their petrodollar, and the American base, and just go home is just absurd. That is not how empires behave. Also, Israel, because it wants to achieve the greater Israel project, is heavily invested in creating a regional conflagration to create as much havoc as possible so that they could destroy the region and then be the only one left standing. And so what Israel wants to do is drag everyone into the war, including Turkey, including Saudi Arabia, including the entire Middle East. And so during the first couple of days, there was reporting that an Iranian drone had struck a Saudi Aramco oil facility. And so Aramco closed down all its energy production. But then later reporting came out to reveal that actually the drone came from Lebanon.

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So it didn't come from the East. It came from the West, which meant Israel. Tor Carlson on his TV show, sorry, on his radio show said that he had received information from the Qataris that they had arrested two Mossad agents, and they suspected these Mossad agents of trying to sabotage the Qatar oil facilities in order to create a false flag. So the Israelis are heavily invested in trying to create as much conflict between the GCC and Iran as possible. And now there's talk of Turkey coming in as well. Recently, there was a drone attack from Iran against Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan was very angry about this and even fought the possibility of sending in ground troops against Iran but then it was later discovered that this was probably a false flag of the Israelis so the Israelis are in are heavily interested in spreading this war as far as possible and creating

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as much destruction as possible and they want this war to continue for as long as possible because they have nuclear weapons so Iranians the Iranians are not going to hit them too hard uh the Iranians are going to hit the GCC much harder and so it's just for the Iranian for the Israelis they just have to endure right it's a war of attrition and then once Saudi Arabia is destroyed once the GCC is destroyed then Israel will be the only power left standing okay so that's so that is Israel's intention other nations will eventually have to be drawn in as well so one wild card is Pakistan so um supported Iran but after that a few months after that Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan so if Saudi Arabia is attacked Pakistan must come to its aid and we know that Pakistan has nuclear weapons so it is very likely that at

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some point Saudi Arabia will join this war on behalf of the Americans uh because the animosity between Saudi Arabia in Iran go way back uh Iran is a theocracy Saudi Arabia is a monarchy and they see each other as her as as heretical okay as against uh Islam the Iranians hate Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia is the home of Mecca Medina the two holiest sites in the Islamic world at the same time they host a lot of American soldiers these are infidels in the eyes of Iranians and so the Iranians are very interested in trying to topple the Saudi regime and um they're going to apply uh pressure to cause uprisings throughout the GGC and I believe that at some point the Saudi government will decide to enter this war and if they enter this war then Pakistan is obligated to enter this war as well if the Americans were to launch a ground invasion

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it would make sense to attack from multiple vectors and one vector would be from Pakistan another vector of course would be from Iraq the last vector would be from Azerbaijan they would also try to seize the shirt who moves as soon as possible in order to maintain uh global trade um so that in the short term so in the short term we can expect the entire Middle East being Gulf in this war at some point in the long term eventually the Southeast Asian economies will have to intervene um so South Korea and Japan are extremely Reliant on um oil from the Strait of Hormuz in fact they would basically starve to death if it were not from this oil from the Strait of Hormuz but there's a wild card and that's North Korea so if you're North Korea and you are analyzing the situation you recognize that now is the perfect opportunity to threaten South

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Korea because Americans are distracted in And the South Koreans don't have access to the oil they need to protect themselves against the North Koreans. So just threaten South Korea. And then the Americans are forced to divert their attention back to Southeast Asia. And Japan is forced to come into this conflict as well. And the North Koreans aren't doing this to start a war that we still settle. They're doing this to extort as much as possible from South Korea and Japan. And so I expect that to happen as well. The Western Hemisphere will not be quiet this time, because while this is happening, Trump is still intent on toppling the Cuban government. So it's possible two weeks from now, while this war is still raging, Trump attacks Cuba or Mexico or Colombia. It is complete insanity. But this is again, unfortunately, this is the way an empire behaves. As it declines.

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So yeah, what you're describing is more or less a suicide or death of empire, at least. But after this war is over, of course, there's no going back to the way things were. So how do you see this, the wider change to the Middle East as a region?

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Well, I think the GCC is done for. I don't think it's possible to come back from what's happening. And after this war is done. I think that Israel emerges as a dominant power in the Middle East, it achieves the greater Israel project. And the Iranians will not lose this war. They will maintain their sovereignty. But this war can destroy a lot of their infrastructure, and they'll have to rebuild. Fortunately, they will be able to control the Strait of Hormuz. And so they'll have the financing necessary to rebuild their nation. And I think that after this war, the Iranians will actually come back. come out much stronger than before. They will be, they will control Homs. They will have a more vibrant, coherent national identity, and they will have upgraded a lot of their military capacity. So maybe after this war, they're destroyed, but they'll rebuild and they'll come out much stronger. And this will lead to, in the long term, a regional conflict between Iran and Israel.

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And in eschatology, in Islamic and in Jewish and in Christian eschatology, this conflict between Iran and Israel, and this is a long -term thing, right? But it is often referred to as the War of Gog and Magog, when the entire world attacks Israel, okay? So, but before that happens, Israel will achieve the greater Israel promise. It will create something called Pax Judaica. So imagine that the center of gravity basically transfers from Washington, D.C. to Jerusalem. Why? Because at this point in history, Israel, it controls all global trade. It's already built the Ben -Gurion Canal, which cuts through Gaza and replaces the Suez Canal. It is the technological and financial center of the Middle East because, the GCC has been destroyed. And so, whatever oil money there is, is put, invested into Israel. You know, the Indian Prime Minister Modi visited Netanyahu before the war struck out, before the war began.

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And it was a very pleasant meeting. And the reason why is that, in order to build Pax Judaica, Israel needs to import millions and millions of cheap laborers. And India is the best source of cheap laborers for Israel. So I think that that is what they have in mind. You know, a lot of technological companies in the United States, Google, NVIDIA, Oracle, they will probably move to Jerusalem and help build the technological center of the world, create an AI surveillance state. So these past few decades, they create this surveillance model in Gaza. And then they'll just scale it out to include the entire Middle East. So that's what I see happening. In the short, in the short term, this war will be devastating. In the mid term, Israel will achieve the greater Israel project and create Pax Judaica. In the long term, Israel will face the world in a global conflict.

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But to what extent would Israel be in a position to project this kind of power? Because after this war, there would be a seemingly a very diminished U.S. presence in at least the ability to project power in the Middle East. Turkey is also growing more concerned about Israel. Indeed, the Israelis also have a very tough rhetoric about Turkey and especially Erdogan. And with the war as well, the amount of destruction that will be levied against the Israelis, the economic complications, the demographic problems, as many settlers might be simply leaving. I mean, it's not a big deal. It's a big country. What is this, eight million people now? Seven, eight? How would they be able to, I guess, sustain themselves in this region once all of these things begin to kick in? Also political instability, one could put out to the list, I guess. Yeah.

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So I think, let's talk political instability because Israel is notorious for political divisions, right? It's almost impossible to get people to agree on anything. Israelis argue all the time. But this war is going to have a traumatic, traumatic effect on Israeli society. The democracy is going to have to give way to a theocracy. The religious zealots are going to gain greater control over Israeli society. And what is, whatever is left of an open, cosmopolitan, democratic society will wither away. Basically, Jerusalem will replace Tel Aviv as the heart and center of Israeli society. So that's point one. Point two is that people severely underestimate Israel because it is a small nation in a desert with very few resources. But the real wealth of Israel is the Jewish diaspora spread all around the world. They are extremely well educated. Their technology is really savvy. And they are, they are extremely united. They believe in the Greater Israel Project.

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So it's possible for Israel to draw on basically unlimited financing on the most advanced technology, on, on political support from all over the Jewish diaspora. And I think that once this war is over, Israel will have no peer competitor in the Middle East, meaning that Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia will probably be destroyed and Turkey will, will be severely weakened in the process. I'll be honest with you. I have very little hope for Turkey. It has suffered a great deal under Erdogan. If you go back and look at how Erdogan came to power and how he cemented power, I believe it was in the 20, what year was it? 2018? Cool. And anyway, my point is that Turkey is extremely corrupt. An ossified society that is a paper tiger. And if Turkey were to enter this war, you'd be surprised by how badly it does. So, so Israel, in other words, doesn't have a regional competitor.

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Iran will be a competitor in the future, but that is in the future.

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Yeah. No, I think, yeah, no, the coup attempt in 2016, I think this was very clear. Well, it's not the first time they have this every now and then, that it, the stability, might be quite fragile. But you kind of covered very well the Middle East, how the US is impacted, how this could spread to East Asia. Israel could become a theocracy. Iran, even more confident regional power. How about Europe? Because we, you know, our, the Americans liberated us from the Nord Stream pipeline by blowing it up. European leaders recently congratulated themselves for liberating themselves from, from Russian energy and gas and oil, sorry. And now, of course, we've also been cut off from energy from the Middle East. And all of this was the backdrop of the United States seeking to pivot away from Europe. So how does this debacle in the Middle East with the war in Iran impact the Europeans?

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Well, it's, I mean, like the Europe, Europe is completely hopeless. It's a hopeless situation. You know, for the past 20 years, it's, America has schooled over Europe. So, these wars in the Middle East created millions of refugees who then went to Europe. And I don't know what the Europeans were thinking in allowing these millions of refugees to come into the society when they didn't have the capacity to absorb these millions of refugees. Right? So, Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, famously said, we can do it. No, you can't. And time has shown that these millions of refugees have put a strain on the social cohesion, on the capacity of the state to govern Europe. So, there's tremendous political fissures within Europe at this point. And so, that's why you see the rise of these right -wing parties throughout Europe. But the main problem, as you point out, is the economy. So, Europe suffers from an aging population.

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So, the population itself is not, no longer as dynamic as it used to be. Before, the model, the German model was very good. It was this, you know, buy cheap Russian energy, make really good German cars, subcontract the labor to Poland, and then sell extremely expensive German cars to China. It was a great model for Germany. But then when Trump came into office, the China market, Germany lost access to the China market. And then when you have this war break out, Germany can no longer buy cheap Russian energy. And as you point out, the Europeans then pivoted to the Middle East, primarily Qatar. And now, Qatar has basically shut down all LNG production. And so, Europe is completely screwed in the process. And Macron has talked about sending an aircraft carrier, to the Middle East. What's that going to do? I mean, send an aircraft carrier so that the Iranians can sink it with ballistic missiles?

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I mean, what's the point of that? So, and, and still at this time, the Europeans are still talking about drafting young men to go die in the trenches of Ukraine in, in 2029. So, the Europeans, the European elite have their head in the sand. They have absolutely no idea what's going on. They have absolutely no solution to the, the multiple crises that they face. And the, Europe is a dumpster fire. I hate to say this, but it's a dumpster fire.

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Well, it's hard to disagree with that assessment, but, no, things are going from bad to worse. I think the, the, the reason why Europe went from this immense optimism to now just crash, you know, you can say hubris and all this, which is all correct. I think it was the post -cold world order though. It, it became ideal for the Europeans. That is, the United States were, you know, declared a unipolar moment. The, the, the, the role of the Europeans in this world was, well, let's have a collective hegemony of the political West standing on these two legs of the U S and the EU, hoping that Europe will be an equal partner to the United States. And not only would the political West dominate the world, but it would be a force for good because not only would it prevent great power rivalry, but also by dominating the liberal leadership, liberal democratic West will be able to elevate the role of liberal democratic values, humanitarian ideals.

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So again, it's, um, it's almost like a civilizing mission. The dominance is us and sovereign inequality is a force for good in the world. The world will thank us for dominating. So this is the benign hegemon. It's very appealing if you're a politician and you say we dominate and the world will love us for it. So now that of course this is falling, uh, falling apart, uh, I guess a bit of a mirage like the Gulf states that we're relying on. Uh, it's, uh, there, there's no, no, no clarity. Well, what to do? And there's no political imagination because they outsourced all strategic thinking to the U S for the, for 80 years. And now the U S is essentially pulling out its knives for the Europeans. Uh, they, they've done this, as you said, uh, over the past 20 years, but they did it, did it more covertly.

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Now they were quite open about their contempt for Europe. So no, I think Europe is done, but, well, well, what does this mean for the wider world order? Because this idea of, uh, you know, the international distribution being focused around us, global primacy legitimized, then by liberal democratic values, this world order, the post -cold war or world order of liberal hegemony is gone. Uh, so the use is not dominant anymore and liberal democratic values. I mean, no one really thinks this is what the Western powers are that these are their objectives in foreign policy. It's a thin wheel which has been tossed away. So what is the new world order then, from your perspective? What will follow this?

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Right. So there will be three major trends that follow from this. The first major trend is de -industrialization because you don't have access to cheap energy. So you need to make your economy much more balanced before we have the growth of urban centers, which engage in a knowledge economy, which engage in AI, in EV, in solar panels. But all of that requires access to cheap energy, which is what the Middle East provided. But now that the Middle East is going to be destroyed or be engulfed in war for the next 10, 20 years, you have to de -industrialize. You have to focus more on self -sufficiency. So that's the first trend. De -industrialization. The second major trend is mercantilism. And what I mean by that is that the global order is dead. And so what you need to do is basically focus on local trade or creating your own supply networks, spheres of influence. The

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third major trend, which is the most troubling, is re -militarization because Pax Americana is dead and Pax Judaica is not interested in protecting you from big bad bullies. So it's either you re -arm a certain space. It's possible and defend yourself or you will be eaten alive by a wolf. So I think in East Asia, the first nation to recognize the changing world order, because it has no choice in the matter, is Japan. I think that they brought in Prime Minister Takeuchi because she appealed to the young and she has the charisma to galvanize the young, to make the sacrifices necessary in order to de -industrialize, re -militarize, and create a self -sufficient economy. So I think that Japan will actually suffer in the beginning, but they will actually be in the forefront of global change. And nations that absolutely refuse to make these three necessary changes will be the most likely to suffer. And quite honestly, I have very little hope for my own country, which is China.

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I think that because of these changes, Japan will start to emerge as the local hegemon while China is still stuck to the old global order. But in the short term, what this means is that the United States and China will have a reproached month. So even though this war has started, Trump will still visit Beijing March 31st, at the end of this month, for a three -day state visit. And I think that people will be surprised by how friendly and productive this meeting will be. And in fact, actually this year, this month, there are six months left. And so I think that both nations are working towards a reproach month in order to repair the global order. But there's no saving the global order. It's dying. And so if you omit this reality and commit to revamping society, deindustrialization, remilitarization, and

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moving towards a self -sufficient economy, then you are much more likely to be more likely to weather the storm that is coming.

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You say that China is stuck in the old world order. And one can see why, well, with 40 years of unprecedented prosperity and growth in human history, one can see why one would want to, at all costs, keep this world going, even though it already went away. It's not that unlike the Europeans, though, because the 90s, the rebirth of Europe, thought together with the U.S. was essential. I mean, it was the center of the world. I remember having books at the university which were with the title, Why the 21st Century Belongs to Europe. I mean, this was kind of the mentality. I thought that was also always a bit ridiculous. But anyways, there was reason for optimism, it seemed. So that's why they also cling on to a world order which is dying, which is why they're not able to adjust to the new world. One place, though, where there's a lot of pressure to readjust to the new order is Russia.

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That is, you know, the spokesperson, Peskov, he made a comment now recently saying that we have lost what, well, we have all lost what we call international law. So the system is essentially dying, if not dead. And I think what really shook them was the decapitation strike on Iran, because this is the desperate act of a dying empire. And why wouldn't they do the same towards Russia? Indeed. They've been attacking. They're nuclear. They're a nuclear deterrent, very openly, I would say. I think this is likely that they tried to assassinate Putin at Valdai with this attack, at least, you know, as a theory. And again, why wouldn't they go for a decapitation strike against Russia? This is what many are thinking. Look what they've done to Iran. There's no rules. So why then is Russia doing this slow war of attrition? And also, they did this at the expense of their deterrent.

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That is, they allowed. The Americans and Europeans to openly launch missiles deep into Russia. You can have a German chancellor sitting on stage saying, oh, yes, we imposed untold casualties on the Russians. I mean, there's so much pressure now on the Kremlin to drop this, whatever they've done the past four years. And why not do like the Iranians? Time to bring some pain to the Europeans, because the Europeans for the past four years said, why should the war be limited to Ukraine? Why not also extend it to Russia? Well, why shouldn't they? The Russians bring it to Europe. This is what I see as the direction, which is, well, terrifying, because this is a recipe for a much larger war. I was wondering how do you see this, the Russian component here? Because they're also one of the great powers.

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Right. So look, I personally think that of all the world leaders, Vladimir Putin is the only one with a grand strategy. He's a very capable leader. And he sees the big picture. He plays chess. And so what he's waiting for is a U.S. ground invasion of Iran. That's what he's waiting for. Because once the United States sends in ground troops, then the United States is all in. It can't extricate itself from the situation. At any point, the United States can stop this air campaign and say, you know what? We killed the Atatollah. We destroyed the Iranian nuclear threat. So we're going to go home, guys. Goodbye. Okay. All right. All right. All right. So the United States sends in ground troops, then it's locked in to this Iranian quagmire for five to 10 years. And there's no escaping it. It'll be like another Vietnam, right? This gives Putin and Russia the perfect opportunity to

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move towards Odessa, which is the real goal and the end goal of this war in Ukraine. Because once they have Odessa, then they have basically achieved all their major military objectives. And so what's going to happen is the Europeans will have no choice but to defend Odessa to the last European. And that's where the next major conflict will be, the siege of Odessa. And if the siege of Odessa were to happen, the Europeans would exhaust themselves defending against the Russian attack. The Russians have perfected drone artillery warfare in the trenches of Ukraine. And that's a perfect combination if you are to besiege Odessa. And so the Europeans, they may be. They may be fresh, but they will be inexperienced. And so they will make a lot of mistakes. They will lose a lot of casualties, and this war will eventually become so unpopular back in Europe that the population would revolt against the governments, okay?

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So remember, this is a time of nuclear war, so you can't actually destroy each other's military. But what you can do is put so much stress and pain on the political system that the citizens ultimately rebel and overthrow the political system. And impose a new system that is much more friendly towards Russia. So that, I think, is the grand plan that Putin has. And it's going to work.

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Well, I think it's the Chinese who say we live in interesting times. So thank you very much.

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It's much too interesting.

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Well, thank you for taking the time. And yeah, it's, as you began saying, this war against Iran, it's hard to believe that they went through with this, given all the risks. But this is, I always make the point, this is going to be the greatest catastrophe is this illusion of escalation control, the assumption that they can control all the variables, decide how it ends, who's allowed to participate, how they contribute. I mean, this is really the same as with the Russians in Ukraine, this assumption of escalation control. This is what's going to kill us effectively, though.

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Well, I will say this. I made this prediction two years ago. The United States would invade Iran. I've been saying for two years consistently that this would happen. The moment that it happened, I was shocked and bewildered and I couldn't sleep because I was like, why would they do this? So yeah, I mean, I sympathize with what you're feeling.