---
title: "“It's An Act Of WAR!” Professor Jiang vs Gordon Chang On China, Iran & Trump | Plus Robert Pape transcript"
description: "Source-synced transcript archive for “It's An Act Of WAR!” Professor Jiang vs Gordon Chang On China, Iran & Trump | Plus Robert Pape."
source_title: "“It's An Act Of WAR!” Professor Jiang vs Gordon Chang On China, Iran & Trump | Plus Robert Pape"
published_at: "2026-04-16"
source_class: "interview"
public_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/"
markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript.md"
text_url: "https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript.txt"
source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8"
data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8.json"
---

# “It's An Act Of WAR!” Professor Jiang vs Gordon Chang On China, Iran & Trump | Plus Robert Pape transcript

- Source: [“It's An Act Of WAR!” Professor Jiang vs Gordon Chang On China, Iran & Trump | Plus Robert Pape](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8)
- Published: 2026-04-16, day precision
- Human transcript page: [/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/)
- Interview page: [/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/)
- Transcript Markdown: [/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript.md)
- Transcript text: [/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript.txt)
- Interview JSON: [/data/lens/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8.json)

## Transcript

### 0:00 seg-0001

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0001`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0001](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0001)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=0s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=0s)

China's very happy that I'm permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. When you threaten a ship that's flagged by China, this is effectively an act of war on China. China's got 600 nuclear weapons here. Is there a concern that President Xi starts looking like the real adult in the room? I can see a situation in which the Europeans see China as a diplomatic savior. The question is, how long can President Trump keep this up? What is this? Pope Leo has a plus 34 popularity rating in the United States. Trump has a negative 12. It's weird to take a fight like that. We sent them a lot of guns. We sent them through the Kurds, and the president says he thinks the Kurds kept them. Did you steal them? A lot of people were stolen. Can't speak for the other side. Keep on protesting, the U.S. president told the Iranian people in January. Help is on its way.

### 0:57 seg-0002

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0002`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0002](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0002)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=57s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=57s)

Well, many Iranians in the diaspora held pictures and banners of Trump as they protested. In London, Washington, D.C., and even L.A., others appeared frequently in the media, including on the show, to make the case for war. The people in Iran are suffering, they said. The time to act is now. After more than six weeks of war, and with the president scrambling for an escape route, it's fair to ask whether acting now helped the Iranian people at all. The faces and some of the names have changed, but the regime has not. A lot of its military power has been destroyed, but none of the power it used to beat down its own people. It's safe to assume that many of the Iranians who chant him for Reza Pahlavi, are now dead, either at the hands of security services or the bombing campaign. Netanyahu and the Israelis sold Trump on a revolution, even as many of us kept asking how that was even possible without armed resistance.

### 1:44 seg-0003

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0003`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0003](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0003)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=104s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=104s)

Last week, Trump told Fox News that the U.S. did try to arm protesters by sending weapons via the Kurds, who, according to the president, stole them. And they will respond to that claim later on this show. We'll begin with a simple question. Who exactly has been helped by this war? Joining me now is Robert Pape, international affairs scholar, and author of Escalation Trap on Substate. Welcome back to Uncensored, Robert. Last time you were on, I asked you who was winning this war. You said the U.S. could be facing strategic defeat because of the new significance of the Strait of Hormuz. What is your view as you sit here today? It's gotten worse. So what you are seeing, and thank you, by the way, for bringing me back, what you are seeing is we are not on a path of peace.

### 2:32 seg-0004

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0004`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0004](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0004)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=152s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=152s)

We're also not on a path of victory. We are on a path of escalation. And what you are going to see unfold now, not likely over just the next few days, but now probably over the coming weeks and months, is a much longer war. So remember, this started, it was supposed to be just a few -day air campaign, backup air plan for if it had to go longer, four weeks. Well, we're way blown past four weeks. And what are we doing? We're escalating. We're actually moving. More forces into the region this morning. And Iran is now counter -threatening just this morning. So what you are seeing with this blockade is an escalation path. And it is now crossing three thresholds. Number one, it's widening the war within the region. So, of course, it's targeting Iran. But Iran is saying, if this goes forward, we're going to knock out or try to knock out the Red Sea choke point.

### 3:32 seg-0005

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0005`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0005](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0005)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=212s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=212s)

Well, they've got the Red Sea choke point. So they've got some credibility there with the Houthis. Number two, the blockade, the U.S. blockade, is now going to be crossing thresholds with China. And we need to understand that when you threaten a ship that's flagged by China or going to China, this is effectively an act of war on China. China's got 600 nuclear weapons here. So this is not a small thing that is occurring here. And then number three, as I was indicating before, this is now moving to a much longer war scenario than is even currently being discussed. And what that means is lock -in of those economic effects of the blockade of the 20 % oil, 30 % fertilizer, et cetera, et cetera, possibly now the Red Sea, for the world economy. So you're locking in that not just for a day, but for probably weeks and months for sure.

### 4:30 seg-0006

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0006`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0006](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0006)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=270s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=270s)

I don't know why. The markets don't want to price this in. But, you know, markets have been wrong before. But this is what's actually the reality of what's occurring. And how significant is the fact that it appears that Lebanon was initially supposed to have been included in the ceasefire agreement, but then Israel said absolutely not, and has carried on bombarding Lebanon as they go after Hezbollah? How significant has that been as part of all this? Yeah, so what Israel has done, in my view, has played the role of, you know, spoiler all the way through. So every time you see this going back to last May, for example, before we bombed for Fordow, before the 12 -day war, every time we get close to something that looks like a workable negotiation, I mean, not even like a deal, but just workable, you see Israel acting in ways that are militarily a spoiler, threatening the deal in May.

### 5:29 seg-0007

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0007`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0007](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0007)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=329s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=329s)

Israel started the 12 -day war by literally, literally bombing to death the negotiators we were supposed to meet with, and they knew the time and place of where they would be because of the negotiation. So we gave them essentially the targeting information. And now that's just one of many instances that have happened since. So Israel is clearly spoiling the negotiation track, and it's now becoming even, I think, beyond Israel's spoiling them. And if you're in Iran's shoes, the idea you're really going to rely on the negotiation track, this is just, I think, we're long past that moment. And in relation to China, they declared on Monday that the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz was dangerous and irresponsible. Trump has posted on Truth Social, China is very happy that I'm permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I'm doing it for them also and the world. This situation will never happen again.

### 6:28 seg-0008

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0008`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0008](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0008)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=388s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=388s)

They've agreed not to send weapons to Iran. President Xi will, give me a big fat hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly and very well. Doesn't that beat fighting? But remember, we are very good at fighting if we have to. Far better than everybody else, President Trump. He's due to go and see President Xi. That's been delayed, obviously, by this war. There are people out there that think that this is a much bigger picture play by Trump and the Americans, which is not about their own oil, because obviously America is pretty well self -sufficient. When it comes to energy. But about controlling the global supply, because obviously China relies so much on oil from places like Iran, that actually that's always been the big picture here, as we saw with Venezuela, as why Trump wants Greenland, why he wants to have some control of

### 7:22 seg-0009

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0009`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0009](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0009)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=442s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=442s)

the Strait of Hormuz, whatever it may be, that there's a bigger thing going on here, which is about the control of global energy. Do you buy into that? Well, I don't. Last June, when we were bombing Fordow, I was spending two weeks in China visiting its advanced industries, the Xiaomi, that's electric vehicle, BYD, Alibaba, and having dinners with all of these executives and also some of the power players here in China. And what they were quite clear was they may lose a few percentage points of GDP if the United States gets sucked into a quagmire in the Middle East, but they gain enormous power here, relative to the United States. So they were absolutely not wanting to get in their arrivals way of sticking their nose into this deeper and deeper. And the idea that we've got this leverage over them, well, 80 % of their energy needs don't come from oil at all.

### 8:20 seg-0010

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0010`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0010](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0010)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=500s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=500s)

And in fact, they're moving even more aggressively into solar power, not because they're liberals, but because this is their growth plan for the future. So I saw all that. I saw that up close and personal for two solid weeks, 18 hours a day at the shop floor, all the plans. And so this is just not real. I mean, we're strengthening, we're hastening the day when China will flip and become number one. We're not reducing that. We're not making that slower, Piers. What's happening is all of these so -called talking points here, for example, you say, well, President Trump just posted, she will be thrilled with this. Fine. Then all the White House has to do, is get that post endorsed by the Chinese foreign ministry today. You don't need to wait weeks and weeks for a meeting. All we know that this is an inner, I'm in Chicago, you're in London. We can do this in the next 30 minutes at the longest.

### 9:17 seg-0011

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0011`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0011](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0011)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=557s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=557s)

That's all that would take there. Otherwise, this is just more hot breath coming out of President Trump. And he's had a lot of that that just simply doesn't matter. Robert Pape, great to have you back. Thank you very much. Thank you. So the big question is, is China the real and potentially the only big winner? Joining me to debate this is Zhang Xiequan, a game theorist, better known as Professor Zhang, and Gordon Chang, author of Plan Red, China's project to destroy America. Well, welcome to both of you. Well, welcome back to Uncensored, Zhang Xiequan. What is your view? I mean, there is a view that's mounting that China, by not being directly involved, has been the biggest beneficiary. Do you share that? I actually don't share that view, Piers. I think that China could suffer many consequences if this war continues for too long. So China has already invested $200 billion into the Middle East.

### 10:19 seg-0012

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0012`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0012](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0012)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=619s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=619s)

All this infrastructure investment could be destroyed. So Iran is a very important part of China's Belt and Road Initiative. And the Israelis and Americans are targeting railways built by, built with Chinese financing. China receives 50 to 60 % of its energy needs from the Middle East for the Strait of Hormuz. And so right now, China is using its strategic reserves to fuel its economy. But if this war continues for too long, then the Chinese economy may suffer. So that's very interesting because, you know, I've been reading a lot of reports increasingly saying, no, no, China, they're going to benefit. And yet you come back all the time, in my head anyway, to the fact that China is pretty reliant on the Strait of Hormuz in particular being open. It's the biggest beneficiary of that Strait being open. And so even though some of their oil has been getting through, it's not been all of it, has it?

### 11:19 seg-0013

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0013`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0013](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0013)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=679s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=679s)

Right. So remember that this weekend there were the peace talks in Islamabad. And these peace talks would not have happened without China pressuring the Iranians to seek a ceasefire as soon as possible. Iranians are not interested. They're not interested in a ceasefire because they see themselves as winning this war. And they believe the Americans don't have any credibility. They've had peace talks before and it's gone nowhere. In fact, the Israelis and Americans have used the pretext of peace talks to attack the Iranians. So I think without Chinese diplomatic efforts, these peace talks would not have occurred in Islamabad. And then you have to ask yourself, why are the Chinese so invested in peace in the Middle East? And the reason why is they have too much invested in energy from the Middle East. Okay. Gordon Chang, you know, I have been really struggling, I'll be honest with you.

### 12:11 seg-0014

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0014`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0014](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0014)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=731s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=731s)

I've known Donald Trump 20 years. The reasons for this war seem to have changed on an hourly basis for the last six weeks. He seems to be deliberately antagonizing everyone he can think of. I mean, today he's been antagonizing every Christian. He's been antagonizing obviously everyone in NATO, everyone in Europe. He doesn't seem to care. And yet, most of the concerns from the people that he's going after are shared by all of them, which is this war was ill -conceived, has been poorly executed, has no apparent end game, and is being driven predominantly by the interests of Benjamin Netanyahu and his Israeli government. What is your view? I think that the war certainly was necessary. And I don't, I agree with you. I don't think President Trump has made the case. So for instance, when he talked to the American people about 10 days ago, he only used conclusory statements, and I don't think that they were that convincing.

### 13:10 seg-0015

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0015`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0015](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0015)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=790s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=790s)

So for instance, he said, well, you know, the Iranians will soon have a missile that will hit the United States. Well, they very well could have that missile right now, Piers, because we know that since 2016, the U.S. Treasury has been sanctioning North Korea and Iran because North Korea has transferred all the components for a Hwasong -15. A Hwasong -15 has a range of 8,000. A Hwasong -15 has a range of 8,100 miles, and if fired from Iranian territory, can hit any part of the United States. We know that Iran has all the pieces. The only thing we don't know is whether Iran has been able to put those pieces together. And President Trump did not make the case on Iran's possession of highly enriched uranium, which he could have done. He just said, well, they have, they want a nuclear weapon. But it was a much more convincing case he could have made.

### 14:01 seg-0016

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0016`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0016](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0016)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=841s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=841s)

And I think that eventually he will make that. I think eventually, the American people will understand that, and I think that they will support the war. But of course, the question is, as you point out, whether Trump will make that case to publics, the American and the world. Well, I don't see how he can successfully sell us the premise that this was always about preventing them building a nuclear weapon when the enriched uranium, which is quite a long way advanced on that path, remains massively underground, heavily protected, and the Americans and Israelis, the Israelis haven't got a single tiny dot of it. So as long as it remains there, and obviously getting it out of the ground would be incredibly hazardous, particularly if they deploy ground troops. I don't know how you can say that you've destroyed their chances of making a nuclear weapon. He said all that after the 12 day war last summer.

### 14:53 seg-0017

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0017`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0017](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0017)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=893s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=893s)

And then within nine months, we were back again on the same pretext. None of this makes sense to me. Well, if you're talking about President Trump's statements, I certainly agree with you. But there's certain things that we need to point out. And one of them is that we don't know where that 460 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium is. Right. And if it's not buried underground and if the Iranians have access to it, then, you know, they could very well turn that into, you know, 90 percent enriched uranium. And by the way, we know that it's 60 percent only because they told us. So it could very well be 90 percent. So, yes, there is a... I mean, I don't know if it's a very imminent threat or a near imminent threat. And I think President Trump did not make that case. But if you look at

### 15:39 seg-0018

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0018`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0018](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0018)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=939s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=939s)

the facts, I do believe that they bear out the clear and present danger assessment that the American government has in fact made. And in terms of China itself, you got into a little bit of a spat with Donald Trump on air, actually, at Fox the other day. Let's take a look. I have a very good relationship with President Xi of China. And we work together very well. They're paying us. We've got substantial money, as you know. We've never got money before. You know, I listen to this Gordon Chang. He has no idea what he's talking about. We have been very tough on China. Tough but fair. And, you know, it's an amazing place. But I have a very good relationship with China. And they've been doing my thing. You know, I put tremendous tariffs. I put 100 percent tariff on all Chinese cars coming in. And that's destroying Europe. So, Gordon, you have no idea what you're talking about.

### 16:34 seg-0019

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0019`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0019](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0019)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=994s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=994s)

I think we can answer that. I mean, we've had you to the list of 1,000 people he has trashed in the last six weeks, so don't take it personally. But in relation to that, you know, earlier we just heard Professor Chang saying that China has not benefited from this war. Do you agree with that? And do you think that Trump has been too soft on China? Yeah, first of all, I don't think this war is in China's interest. And I agree with Professor Chang for a lot of reasons. You know, we've seen the spike in oil, but more important, the spike in diesel prices in China. Now, the National Development and Reform Commission has been trying to moderate those. Yes, China does have the world's largest strategic petroleum reserve, but at most it's 140, 150 days of import cover. The real problem for China, though, is that China is now extraordinarily trade -dependent.

### 17:23 seg-0020

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0020`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0020](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0020)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1043s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1043s)

And that's because Xi Jinping has turned his back on consumption as the basis of the Chinese economy, which means that China's only hope for growth is trade, exports, but in a de -globalizing world. And it's de -globalizing. because of conflict around the world, some of which China is responsible for, by the way, we're seeing countries pull back, and that's not good for a trade -dependent country. So in a de -globalising world, China could very well be the biggest victim of trends. Professor Zhang, Donald Trump's deadline for imposing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is sort of upon us. No -one's quite sure how he's going to implement this. What do you think about this idea of a kind of revenge blockade driven by the United States? Right, so there's a lot of concern that a naval blockade is not feasible, because if you try to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, then you're within range of Iranian drones as well as ballistic missiles.

### 18:25 seg-0021

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0021`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0021](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0021)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1105s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1105s)

But if you step back and you think about the larger strategy at work here, I think that Gordon is right in that China is going to be the first country It's very much an export -dependent economy, and it's very reliant on free access to maritime choke points, such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca. So if Iran can impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, there's actually no reason why the American military cannot impose tariffs and tolls on the Strait of Malacca. And so that would raise tremendous costs for China. And so maybe the overall strategy is not really directed at Iran, but really at strangling the Chinese economy. And you can do that by actually restraining China's access in certain key maritime choke points. But, you know, China could, of course, as it did in the tariff war, it could hit back very strongly if it chose to.

### 19:20 seg-0022

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0022`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0022](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0022)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1160s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1160s)

I mean, I've been I've stood in Shanghai Port, which I think is the biggest port in the world, and watched everything going out of there to the West predominantly. If China was to flex its muscles in restricting access of its goods to the world, it might suffer, of course, itself short term economic harm, but it would cause a lot of damage to the global economy elsewhere. So it's not like they're powerless, right? Well, as Gordon pointed out, China is an export dependent economy. So China benefits more from trading with the world and the world benefits from trading with China. So it makes no sense for China to impose an embargo on the world, and it can't really do that. The major question is, to have a blue water navy to challenge uh american hegemony over the seas and the answer is it doesn't and the problem is

### 20:14 seg-0023

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0023`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0023](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0023)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1214s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1214s)

that if china were to start challenging uh america in the seas especially um the city of malacca then that would activate the japanese military and japan has actually the um best blue water navy in east asia okay gordon chang you know roughly 90 of iran's crude oil exports go to china um that oil revenue supplies around a quarter of iran's budget a huge portion of which is then spent on its military without china the regime wouldn't be able to pay its security forces couldn't subsidize basic goods and would soon face internal collapse that is the theory that is i think guiding some of uh president trump's uh decision making over a potential blockade and so on because iran has become in itself utterly dependent on china do you understand the rationale for the blockade based on that yes and by the way on saturday two arleigh burke's american destroyers transited the state of hormuz twice

### 21:17 seg-0024

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0024`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0024](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0024)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1277s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1277s)

and they did so without arrangement with iran so i think that if you parked a couple arleigh burke's in just outside the strait um you could close it and that's what president trump has talked about he said that look we're going to seize any ship that has paid iran's this cuts off all of its oil revenue so really what we have is an a strategy to starve the regime whether it will bring down the regime i don't know this regime is extremely resilient but after a while when you have no money at all coming in then really you don't have a war effort on the part of the iranians so i think that eventually this will work and the question is how long can president trump keep this up i think that he can keep it up a lot longer than most people believe so there is the makings of a strategy and i think

### 22:09 seg-0025

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0025`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0025](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0025)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1329s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1329s)

that it probably will work professor zhang i mean there's a lot of chatter about what china's view of all this has been and you've articulated it very well i think why they it's actually more of a concern than a benefit um it's obviously the war has exposed the fragility of the global economy when it comes to who controls the Strait of Hormuz. That is obvious, and Iran now knows that. And, of course, other actors around the world now know that if you control a waterway through which a lot of the world's goods or energy flow, then you can cause paralysis around the world. So that won't have gone unnoticed, I'm sure, to people like Vladimir Putin. But you have also, conversely, had a revelation here that you can paralyze to a degree China in terms of its energy flow coming out of places like Iran. And that may be what Donald Trump has belatedly picked up on.

### 23:11 seg-0026

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0026`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0026](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0026)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1391s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1391s)

Some people think that this was always his intention. I don't think it was. But I think he's now realized, actually, this kind of use of the waterways as an economic battering ram could work both ways, hence the blockade. Yeah. Yeah. You're absolutely right. Donald Trump is first and foremost concerned with using American military power to benefit America first. And right now, America has about $39 trillion in debt. And we've seen these past few years that many nations in Europe and East Asia are shifting away from U.S. treasuries and purchasing more gold. If the trend continues, then America could face a sovereign debt crisis. And so the way to elevate this crisis is by, by forcing Europe and East Asia to depend more on North American resources, right? So LNG from America. And you can do that by sabotaging the economies of the GCC, by imposing a naval blockade in the Middle East.

### 24:13 seg-0027

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0027`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0027](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0027)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1453s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1453s)

And so maybe there's a grand plan here. Gordon Chang, what does this all mean for Taiwan? You know, America gets bogged down in Iran. Its military credibility is damaged. Has the, has the decision to do this given China, if he wishes, a green light to go and take Taiwan? In other words, has it removed the West's high moral ground and ability to complain if they now go and do the same thing to Taiwan, which Trump has done in Iran? Or it's obviously not exactly the same thing, but in terms of attacking. It's very different because Iran was clearly violating their obligations under the Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty. They attacked Israel savagely on October 7th. Iran's president in December said that there was a state of war between the United States and Iran. So, you know, it's very different. The thing about Taiwan, and yes, the U.S. has drawn down its stocks, has used them in Iran, and this does create a vulnerability.

### 25:20 seg-0028

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0028`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0028](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0028)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1520s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1520s)

But Xi Jinping has decimated the top of the Chinese military with his continual purges. And from what we can tell, there have been people who have been Xi Jinping's loyalists who have been purged by Xi Jinping's adversaries. So there is turmoil at the top of the Chinese military. Now, to invade Taiwan, or at least the main island of Taiwan, you have to have a combined air -land -sea operation, which means you need coordination at the top of the Chinese military. And just one detail, the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, which controls the military, normally had seven members on it a couple months ago. Now it has. Only two, Xi Jinping and a political commissar. There are no operational officers left on the Central Military Commission, which means an invasion of Taiwan, at least for this moment, is off the table. Do you agree with that, Professor Zhang?

### 26:13 seg-0029

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0029`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0029](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0029)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1573s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1573s)

I think another consideration are the Japanese. The Japanese prime minister has stated that Taiwan is part of Japan's national strategic interest. And if China were to take over Taiwan, then China can impose... There's a naval blockade on Japan. It could basically shut off Malacca to Japanese trade. And so this would present an existential crisis to Japan. So if there's any intention on the part of China to take over Taiwan, then Japanese would intervene. So I do not believe that in the next five to ten years there's any consideration of an invasion of Taiwan. But it's interesting the way you described what China could potentially do. Because, of course, if you're China and you're looking at what's happened with the Strait of Hormuz, that idea that you just proposed, as possibly in their thinking, becomes a lot more effective, right? I mean, if they wanted to cause real economic damage to Japan and others, they could just do a similar thing over there.

### 27:22 seg-0030

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0030`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0030](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0030)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1642s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1642s)

But China is an export -dependent economy. So if global trade stops, then it hurts itself more than other people. Simple as that. Simple as that. And the other thing, Piers, is that, yes, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan get an enormous percentage, you know, 90 % of their energy through the Strait of Hormuz. Right now, we have these very large crude carriers in the Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of America because they're picking up American energy from Texas and Louisiana. So that energy trade will redirect. Of course, it will cause severe disruptions in East Asia for a little while. But America has the energy to sell. Professor Zhang, is there a concern, do you think, I don't know who the concern would predominantly be with, but Donald Trump has been behaving very erratically on the global stage and been deliberately attacking a lot of his allies, from the UK to France to Spain to Germany and others, NATO.

### 28:25 seg-0031

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0031`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0031](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0031)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1705s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1705s)

Is there a concern that President Xi starts looking like the real adult in the room? And that the United States loses that role in perception globally? The Chinese are first and foremost, pragmatic, and the Chinese believe in mutual trade. And so I can see a situation in which the Europeans, the Russians, the Iranians, see China as possibly a diplomatic savior in the situation. Certainly, the Chinese were instrumental in organizing these weekend talks, and it's not my bad. So these talks were not effective and there were no results. But we're going to assume that these talks will become a regular thing, even as this war progresses. Gordon Chang, what do you think? I mean, you know, President Xi's been pretty quiet, not saying too much, letting this all play out. Donald Trump's been the complete opposite, rampaging around, looking increasingly like someone who's not quite sure how to get out of this mess.

### 29:30 seg-0032

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0032`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0032](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0032)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1770s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1770s)

But if he blames enough people, eventually somebody might, again, accept the blame. You know, is President Xi winning the kind of diplomatic war here, if nothing else? I think he's certainly winning the propaganda war because he does look stable. There's no question about that. And that's backed up by all sorts of anecdotal evidence and surveys. But, Piers, something had to be done about NATO. And, you know, as Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, said, Trump has been great for NATO because he's gotten countries, except for Canada, to agree to that 5%. GDP spending limit or floor. So really, these are things that had to be done. Now, yes, you're right. Trump should not have threatened war against Denmark over Greenland, shouldn't have been making those threats against Canada. And those are not helpful. But a lot of what Trump has been saying and doing was really important because previous presidents and previous American presidents have just kicked the can down the road and let NATO erode.

### 30:33 seg-0033

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0033`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0033](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0033)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1833s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1833s)

They let Iran develop. They let China develop nuclear weapons. They let this and they let that. But Trump, I think, gets credit for doing things which are politically unpopular, but I believe are necessary for the national security of the United States, but also for the safety and security of the international system as a whole. It's not just America first. This is America actually guaranteeing or creating the conditions for enduring peace in the coming decades. I mean, that's assuming any of this works. You know, I would say the problem, the problem with that argument, Sure. is I can see why this is all in Netanyahu and Israel's interests, because they just want to do as much damage in Iran as they can possibly do. And they found a president that will help them do it and smash it all up.

### 31:15 seg-0034

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0034`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0034](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0034)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1875s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1875s)

But in terms of the American national interest here, if ultimately this gets resolved with Iran retaining its enriched uranium, with the regime still in place, albeit with different members of it at the top, with the people not rising up in the way that the Israelis had assured the Americans would happen if you decapitated the Ayatollah and the leadership. You know, of all these things, if that's how this plays out, and the Iranians have learned that they can strangle the global economy at any moment through the Strait of Hormuz if they want to, how is that not a terrible, terrible outcome for the United States? That's a possible outcome, but it's not the only outcome. And we've got to remember that the war effort is supported not only by Israel, which is a combatant, but also by the United States. But it was also supported by Saudi Arabia and many of the Gulf Cooperation Council states.

### 32:09 seg-0035

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0035`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0035](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0035)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1929s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1929s)

So they do not want Iran to prevail. And they've been helping the United States and they've been backing us. So it's not just Israel. It's, I think, the region, which has come to the conclusion that Iran is a danger that can no longer be sloughed off into the future. So, yeah, you have a scenario which is perfectly possible, but there are many other ones as well, which are bright. much brighter yeah i mean professor chang there's no doubt that what the iranians have done by attacking its neighboring gulf states has massively antagonized the uae saudi arabia qatar and others they've gone after them in their most vulnerable areas really which are hitting the oil refineries and hitting tourist areas there's been a 10 reduction in uh people uh defecting not affecting but leaving uh some of these gulf states because they fear it's not safe anymore if that was to to continue that trend or

### 33:09 seg-0036

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0036`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0036](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0036)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1989s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=1989s)

they stayed away uh irrevocably you can see the whole business model of moving from reliance on oil which is running out to an economy through the gulf states based on tourism sport uh entertainment and so on it becomes very difficult to sustain that if you don't have the people so the stakes are pretty high here aren't they it's is possible that gcc does not survive this war um as you point out the gcc is heavily dependent on expatriates uh on international financing um and on global trade and this war has shown that the gcc is really a mirage um created uh under the illusion that they will be protected by the american empire in fact we have the petrodollar system because the gcc had an agreement uh with america where the gcc would sell its oil in u.s dollars and recycle back into the u.s economy in exchange for american military military protection

### 34:05 seg-0037

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0037`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0037](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0037)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2045s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2045s)

so not only did america not start this war about without their consent but when this war started uh the americans abandoned their military bases and start shelter in hotels and that's why they were targeted by iranian uh drones so this was a very bad deal for the gcc and um i think it's very hard that for them to survive this war and that's why i think there's so much anxiety and pressure to launch a nation against iran when we spoke uh the last time you appeared on uncensored you were predicting that america would have to commit ground troops let's take a look iran is putting a lot of pressure on the gcc and i think at the end of the day um the united states will be compelled to send ground forces once the united states sends in ground forces there's no turning back it's all in um the sunk cost fallacy uh kicks in

### 35:00 seg-0038

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0038`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0038](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0038)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2100s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2100s)

it'll be another vietnam for the united states because iran is a mountain fortress and the united states right now doesn't have the manpower the manufacturer capacity and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in iran now you previously predicted correctly that trump would win the election you predicted the war with iran you also said that the united states would lose that war ultimate and that remains to be seen um but on that specific prediction about eventually having to commit troops. Was that predicated on having to get the enriched uranium or in trying to affect a regime change? Yeah, I mean, I think it's a ladder where it is impossible to affect regime change from the air. And it's not sustainable in the long term. We're already seeing American F -15s, F -35s being downed by the Iranians because, first of all, it's hard to maintain these expensive $100 million planes in a long war.

### 36:05 seg-0039

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0039`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0039](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0039)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2165s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2165s)

And second of all, the Iranians are developing creative air defense strategies against the Americans. So eventually, if you want to continue this war, you're going to have to send in ground troops because it's too expensive to maintain an air war. But the cost on human life from a ground invasion could be catastrophic, not just for the people who get killed, but also for the people who get killed. So I think it's a very, very important thing. I think it's a very, very important thing. I think it's a very, very important thing. a massive political fallout that would head Donald Trump's way. And of course, he has got the backdrop of the United States midterm elections in November. If you go into the attitude that one American soldier is worth more than $100 million F -15 or F -35, you're going to lose this war. Right. So what should the attitude be?

### 36:54 seg-0040

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0040`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0040](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0040)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2214s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2214s)

Well, first of all, America should not be in this war. America should have negotiated a peace treaty with Iran. America should have lifted all trade sanctions against Iran and allowed for civilian Iranian enrichment. And this would have brought global prosperity to the world. The Iranians were probably happy to abide by a nuclear treaty that they signed under Obama. And that treaty was going very, very well. So first of all, this war should not have started. Now that this war has started, I think it's imperative that the Americans recognize that this war is lost. It cannot be win and refused to commit. So I think it's imperative that the Americans recognize that this war is lost. Because once it commits ground troops, then this war becomes a St. Carlos policy mission creep, like a Vietnam. So right now it's a turning point. I implore the Americans, do not send in ground troops. Once you send in ground troops, you're stuck there for 10 years.

### 37:49 seg-0041

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0041`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0041](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0041)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2269s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2269s)

Yeah, I think that's almost certainly true. I mean, Gordon Chang, you know, that paints a pretty rosy picture of the Iranian regime, you know, towing the line on the global stage. They've shown very little evidence they would do that. And in fact, they've shown very little evidence they would do that. And in fact, of course, the whole point of the war from the Israeli point of view is that they've been the octopus providing the tentacles of terrorism to the Houthis, to Hezbollah, to Hamas, to terrorize Israel for several decades now. And that is why Israel wanted to neutralize that threat. And that is why Netanyahu worked so hard to persuade Donald Trump to bring America into it. I mean, do you think that the picture there that Professor Zhang, I mean, do you think that the picture there that Professor Zhang, paints of Iran being a reliable actor, perhaps if we'd done things differently?

### 38:42 seg-0042

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0042`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0042](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0042)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2322s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2322s)

Is that is that a likely scenario? Yeah, I don't share it. So for instance, with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the JCPOA that President Obama negotiated, we know that the Iranians violated it. And President Trump, when he pulled out, said he couldn't certify a compliance. And we know that he said that the Iranians were part of the plan, and that was a direct contravention of its obligations. So no, I don't think Iran can be trusted. I'd like to think that they could. But at least on that one, and with that's the most direct precedent that we have, we have seen that they violated it. And by the way, they have 60 % enriched uranium, which they admitted to. And so that's clearly a violation as well. You just go through the list of this, Piers, and I just don't think that Iran could be trusted. It's unfortunate, but that's the nature of the regime.

### 39:40 seg-0043

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0043`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0043](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0043)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2380s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2380s)

It wanted a nuclear weapon, absolutely determined to get it, and it would lie and cheat and steal, which it did. What is your prediction, Gordon Chang, for how this plays out? Well, how it plays out is determined by one individual, President Trump. And I don't know, you know, you're absolutely right when you say he's unpredictable. Now, we know what he says, I think that he is as good as his word on these issues for various reasons. He's been consistent about Iran not getting a nuclear weapon. He started this war, which he knew was going to be unpopular. So he's obviously determined to see it through. But you know, as I said, it's up to one individual, and we're just going to have to see. As I said, I think he's going to be as good as his word. Finally, Professor Zhang, I couldn't let you go without,

### 40:36 seg-0044

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0044`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0044](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0044)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2436s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2436s)

mentioning an encounter you had with Mehdi Hassan, who's a regular on Uncensored, in which he said you're misleading people because you're not actually a professor. And secondly, he called you China's useful idiot. Here is your chance to respond to these two charges. What would you like to say? First of all, he's absolutely right. I am not a professor. I am not a credential professor. I'm a high school teacher with a pretty popular YouTube following. And it's the internet that has called me professor. In China, it's a sign of respect to call someone a professor, regardless of his credentials. So it's entirely up to you whether or not to call me a professor. And the second point that I'm a useful idiot. Look, it is entirely possible that an algorithm is popping me up because I'm saying certain things that align with the interests of certain nation states. And I don't dispute that. My rise in the internet has been meteoric.

### 41:34 seg-0045

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0045`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0045](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0045)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2494s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2494s)

It's surprised me. But I'm committed to education. I'm committed to free debate. I'm committed to free discussion. I am probably happy to engage with people on both the left and the right. And I think the path forward is open and free debate. Yeah, I completely agree. Gordon Chang, what is your view of Professor Chang? Are you happy to call him a professor? And do you think he's China's useful idiot? Yeah. You know, everything that Professor Zhang just said, I can certainly agree with him. So, I understand that that title is something that people have given him. And that's fine with me. You know, he has views. Some of them align with what the Communist Party of China believes. Some of them do not, as we just heard. So, he has his views. And I wouldn't characterize him with that useless idiot term. I think he just has views that both do align and don't align with the powers in China.

### 42:33 seg-0046

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0046`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0046](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0046)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2553s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2553s)

Yeah, which, from where I sit, is actually a pretty good place. be i have the same about my own uh country and my own government i agree with them about some things i disagree with them about others uh that last time i checked is actually a pretty good place for most people to find themselves uh but anyway i'm quite happy to call you professor professor zhang i think you're you are an internet sensation it's great having you on uncensored regularly now and please come back soon thank you both very much thank you thanks guys well joining me now are two members of the iranian diaspora with very different views about the war and what happens next sam agar azgari he's the iranian american actor and sarah amari he's the iranian american journalist and u.s editor of unheard welcome to both of you um you

### 43:20 seg-0047

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0047`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0047](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0047)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2600s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2600s)

know both iranians both have uh very strong views about this and i'm very aware having spoken to a lot of iranians myself in the last six weeks that opinions they've evolved they've fluctuated people have changed their minds completely as it's gone on because obviously those who wanted regime change have seen the supreme leader taken down and many of his top people taken down but the regime itself still appears to be intact so has there been regime change many think that hasn't happened you know has there been a popular uprising by the people not so far have the iranian iranian regime have they found a way to strangle the global economy through the stratiform movement in a way that may have even surprised them yes so there are lots of complexities to this and i wouldn't pretend otherwise but sam let me start with you welcome back to uncensored what was your view at the start

### 44:16 seg-0048

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0048`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0048](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0048)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2656s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2656s)

of the war on day one and what is your view now my view from the start of the war till now it's the same i mean nobody wants war nobody wants innocent people dying nobody wants the american uh soldiers being sent overboard uh you know that that caused any sort of casualty to the innocent people between these two governments and that's that's been the same i mean we never want war to start but we figured that this is going to be the only way that this regime is going to get weakened and it has already become weakened and it it sort of looks like there's a lot of chaos that's happening within the leaders that are left so my views are are standing the same but again uh we haven't really seen anything coming out ofreal Iran because the internet shut down and the total blackout that they had. So it's very hard to see what's really happening within the people inside of Iran.

### 45:16 seg-0049

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0049`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0049](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0049)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2716s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2716s)

But nobody wants really to be bombed and nobody wants to be under that much pressure, especially when they were already under economic pressure to begin with. And so we just figure to wait and see what really happens within the next few weeks in Iran to really figure out what's what's going to be the future. OK, Sara, welcome to Uncensored. What was your view on day one and what is your view now? My view on day one was driven mainly by my status as an American, not someone who happens to be born in Iran, which is this was a war that the president more or less explicitly said he wouldn't do during his campaign, that it was unpopular and that it would not serve U.S. national security interests. And my view today remains the same. It's surveying the field. It's completely unclear whether this war has achieved anything.

### 46:15 seg-0050

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0050`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0050](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0050)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2775s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2775s)

The regime has hardened. There is lots of signs of the rally around the flag, which I and many others like me predicted. Ideologically, a lot of the people who would have made a deal potentially with the West are dead, as the president himself said early on at some point in an interview in the war, the people who are left are younger Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps members who are more radical and who are in a way chafing under the restraint imposed on them by the previous supreme leader. And now they feel unrestrained. It's come down to whether or not the Strait of Hormuz stays open or closed. In other words, it's come down to restoring a status quo ante that wouldn't have been disrupted but for the war. And I'll say this. Look, the reason I'm speaking to you from New York rather than Tehran is because the U.S. has not been able to do that.

### 47:04 seg-0051

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0051`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0051](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0051)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2824s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2824s)

My family and I are no fans of the Iranian regime. There's no question about that. It's a theocracy. It's been repressive. However, you have to think about whether or not the experiences of the post -911 years when the U.S. tried these kinds of wars in the Middle East have served the U.S. well, and they didn't. They created vast swaths of stateless and chaotic territory in places like Libya that's still feeding migrants into Europe. Syria went through a brutal civil war and then ended up under the leadership of essentially an al -Qaeda warlord. Afghanistan, after 20 years of blood and treasure expended, is back in the hands of the Taliban. And Iraq is this mess that's kind of an Iranian satrapy. So with all that in mind, you have to wonder what's going to be achieved. Now, there is a way to do regime change in Iran, but it's not this kind of warfare.

### 47:58 seg-0052

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0052`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0052](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0052)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2878s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2878s)

You'd have to deploy estimates range from half a million to a million troops. And no one in the United States has an appetite for that. So, you know, I think if I'm in the Iranian leadership, I'm actually feeling pretty good right now, having revealed my ability to squeeze the global economy. And essentially, I now realize as an Iranian leader, if I'm sitting in Tehran, I have a nuclear weapon called the Strait of Hormuz. It's been an interesting experience. It's been an enormous waste and potentially a costly strategic blow to the United States. And that pains me as an American. Yeah, this is how I feel about it. You know, Sam, bringing you back in here, one of my big problems with President Trump in all this is the constant mixed messaging and changing of messaging. You know, at the launch of what he called Epic Fury on February 28th, an address to

### 48:48 seg-0053

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0053`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0053](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0053)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2928s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2928s)

the world, he said, finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight, the hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take it. Take over your government. It will be yours to take. And we know from the New York Times reporting several days ago that Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House Situation Room, in the buildup to this war, one of his persuasive arguments to Trump was that if you decapitate the leadership, then there will be an uprising. And he even went further, Netanyahu, and said that there'll be no attention paid to the Strait of Hormuz because all the attention will be on the IRGC. He said that there will be no attention paid to the IRGC dismantling and the people taking over and so on. Well, none of the rest of that has happened. We've seen the Ayatollah taken out, but replaced by his son. We don't know the condition of the son, but he's apparently still alive and is the new supreme leader.

### 49:39 seg-0054

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0054`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0054](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0054)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2979s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=2979s)

There are 250,000 members of the IRGC. Many of them are still there. Underneath them is nearly half a million paramilitaries, heavily armed, loyal to the regime. And below that, there's the standing army of nearly a million people. So there's an enormous armed force there. As Saurabh said, if you're actually going to try and get rid of the regime, you've got to have enough troops on the ground to take on a force like that. And there's no appetite whatsoever for anyone to do that. So that isn't going to happen. So my problem has been that, after Trump posted that, he then posted only last week, a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will, which is the most explicit sort of espousing of particular interests. I mean, I'm not saying that we're going to get rid of the regime.

### 50:27 seg-0055

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0055`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0055](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0055)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3027s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3027s)

I'm not saying that we're going to get rid of the regime. I'm not saying that we're going to kill every Iranian. How that sits with, this is your hour of freedom at hand to the Iranian people, is completely baffling to me. So as an Iranian, are you not finding that as problematic as everybody else? I mean, do you not think that that's an extraordinary double messaging coming out of the White House? As an American, I feel that that's not very presidential. So to speak, when it comes to tweeting or whatever social media that you use, especially if this war or this operation ever started because of humanity. Remember, the whole point was that Iranian people were in need of help, and that was the whole campaign behind it. So it's something that absolutely, as an American, I don't agree with. As a person, I don't agree with.

### 51:22 seg-0056

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0056`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0056](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0056)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3082s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3082s)

And as an Iranian born, I don't agree with. But I think what the president... What the president was trying to do here is negotiate with the Iranians the way that they speak. He was speaking their language, and he sort of was doing that so. But that's something that you don't usually do when it comes to political aspect for the other people to see. I mean, I see private messages between them and the president of the United States. That's one thing. But putting it out on the social media and to sort of play that role, it doesn't really play. It doesn't really play for American people, for the Iranian people. So it's absolutely not the way to speak. But again, he has been really trying to talk to these lunatics like a lunatic. Yeah, but you see, I just don't think that is the correct way to do it. You know, it's like, yeah, you can behave exactly like your enemy.

### 52:17 seg-0057

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0057`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0057](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0057)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3137s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3137s)

But if your argument is that this enemy is a bunch of appalling, genocidal lunatics, you should rise above them. You should maintain a... Yeah, in public, at least, a high moral ground, I think. And I think, you know, the problem with saying a whole civilization will die tonight is that when they don't, you become the boy that cried wolf, you become the emperor with no clothes. Your whole standing of issuing the sort of apocalyptic threats and then not carrying anything out is if you're the Iranian regime, you're like, well, he blinked. You know, however Trump tries to spin it, he blinked. And once you blink and you're you know i think as sarab said then you're inviting the regime to feel that well we have an existential threat to our existence and it's not happened so in effect we have won it's just a question of the

### 53:10 seg-0058

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0058`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0058](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0058)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3190s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3190s)

terms now yeah i mean i i think the i would harp on the actually the strategic mistake set aside the moral dimension which of course horrified lots of people not least the holy father pope uh pope leo i happen to be a catholic uh yeah me too but but setting setting that aside it it just you know you remember those hours he said i will essentially i will rain fire upon you and destroy your civilization especially talk of civilization is so sensitive for iranians because they justly take pride in a in a very old civilization yeah 2 500 years old and then you know in a matter of hours to say yes i've i've accepted the iranian framework uh for as a 10 -point uh sort of opening for negotiations which included iranians charging a toll uh for passage through the strait of hormuz i mean that that looks that looks ridiculous and again american

### 54:08 seg-0059

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0059`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0059](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0059)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3248s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3248s)

prestige is some of it rests on this possibility that the united states is this power that has several thousand strategic weapons and could end truly end the nation if it wanted to but it's not you know the it was never said explicitly and to have said it explicitly and then to go back to a position of well maybe the iranian 10 -point plan is a good basis for negotiations is farcical that's bad for american power and again that's what pains me more so even maybe than the moral dimensions of the bluster yeah i mean sam none of the 10 -point 15 -point plans none of them actually articulate regime change as something to be negotiated even so it seems like that's not even on the table at the moment um but again i come back to the the goal posts have changed so often here if i was iranian especially if i was living in

### 55:00 seg-0060

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0060`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0060](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0060)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3300s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3300s)

iran i'd be like i just don't understand what's what is happening here are we going to get to a situation where because of the strait of hormuz being closed in the way that it's been so effectively by the regime because of the way they've tactically attacked their gulf state neighbors in a very damaging way to the business model going forward for all of those gulf states and i've been to them a lot in the last couple of years and if you're in saudi arabia or qatar or uae you know your business model you're selling to the world that's been very successful to date has been come here it's safe it's sunny it's going to be entertainment great for tourism great for sport and so on and that right now that's all on hold which is devastating to them um so there's been a double -pronged economic war being waged by the regime whilst the americans

### 55:48 seg-0061

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0061`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0061](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0061)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3348s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3348s)

and the israelis have been waging a predominantly war saying we've got overwhelming power we're going to destroy you but you know this asymmetric double war i don't think has worked for america in particular i don't think the israelis care but i think trump does and he's seeing the political damage now in the polling uh this was already a war most americans didn't approve of and that has increased that disapproval so i just my gut feeling is donald trump got into this because he believed that when netanyahu said all happened he believed him and the reality is most of it hasn't happened so in that eventuality how long do you want to see i'm sorry i don't mean to call you an iranian i accept your how would you categorize yourself an iranian american is that how do you want to be called are you talking to me yeah yeah born in iran made in america

### 56:46 seg-0062

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0062`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0062](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0062)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3406s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3406s)

so how do you what do you prefer what do you prefer to be an iranian american or i don't want to put words in your mouth i mean i mean sure you know america gave me everything so that would consider myself american iranian got it but that's you know iran is something that iran here's a problem with with iran we cannot sit here and blame anybody else besides the government of iran those are the main that's that is the main devil in the middle east i mean take a look at the middle east like you said every single country that's out in the middle east even turkey that's being ran by a dictator is also you know weighing the but but also the entire world and we're sort of missing that so it's sort of hard to sit here and explain you know try to blame the united states no no i don't just to

### 58:00 seg-0063

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0063`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0063](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0063)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3480s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3480s)

be clear i don't i don't i agree with you look i've got absolutely no truck for the iranian regime whatsoever and i shed no tears when the ayatollah was killed you know this just be clear they've waged a campaign of terrorism against their own people in iran and they've been the octopus with the tentacles of terrorism throughout the middle east and predominantly aimed at israel obviously through the houthis hezbollah and hamas and so on so you know just i think we're all agreed on that the question becomes what do you do about it and i'm just sitting here looking at this war six weeks in and thinking well the enriched uranium remains buried away they've no idea where it is uh the regime in the negotiation to 21 hours they had the other day made it clear they were not going to surrender it and nor were they going to agree to any extended um

### 58:47 seg-0064

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0064`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0064](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0064)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3527s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3527s)

ban on them developing a nuclear weapon um you know their argument being well israel's got a load of them why shouldn't we have one uh i'd imagine which is actually not a bad argument um the israelis never like to even admit if they have a nuclear weapon which i find baffling that the world just accepts that um but but putting that to one side i just see a situation here where this either drags on interminably as we saw with iraq and all the problems that came out of that or trump just has to cut and run at some stage and i guess if if the second thing happens how would you feel about that when it comes to you know the whole the whole brains and the whole mentality behind this a whole thing ever started was was humanity for me and for the iranian people and uh you know this situation the iranian people

### 59:38 seg-0065

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0065`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0065](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0065)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3578s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3578s)

are sort of in between two blades of a scissor their own government and you know being bombed by another country that's supposedly be being uh able to free them as as far as other countries are concerned and to keep this another agenda in mind so either or you know my mentality behind this is a loser and the iranian people are gonna lose at the very extreme but it's gotten so bad that anything the whole mentality was anything but this anything but our government and then we rather get bombed that that mentality is still there you just don't see it because of the blackout but uh there are times where people did ask for something but they don't realize it takes you know this regime change usually takes a lot longer than you know 40 days of war i mean even average war is what three years or so so we are not taking into consideration

### 1:00:31 seg-0066

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0066`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0066](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0066)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3631s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3631s)

the timing that it takes you know if well here's the problem the amount of years that it takes yeah but but sam here's the problem with that i think the the reason is that the americans and probably israelis massively underestimated the ability of the regime in iran to strangle australia for moose in the way they have and i think that that has proved to be devastating even in a short 40 -day period it's already been the biggest seismic shock to the global energy market ever in recorded history so i think that has been the thing that was in my view grotesquely underestimated and inexplicably underestimated because it's it's not difficult to predict they could do that um but i think the fact the regime now knows it has that power that gives them as as sarah was saying it they don't really need a nuclear weapon if they can just shut down that straight when

### 1:01:26 seg-0067

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0067`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0067](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0067)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3686s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3686s)

they see fit and cause economic mayhem and for trump in particular it causes enormous political damage in the run -up to midterm elections well look i mean i i i think here is the the real miscalculator one source of the miscalculation and i've been saying this uh for for years you know i started out as a i started out the wall street journal editorial page you know the comment pages of the journal which are famously very hawkish and so not maybe a decade ago i was still where basically sam is right i was like well we you know we use american power to to liberalize the world and so on but then i had to look at the outcome of those wars as i said and and think that you know for the most part this kind of moralistic foreign policy doesn't really work um but it was fed in the iran case by essentially

### 1:02:21 seg-0068

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0068`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0068](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0068)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3741s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3741s)

too many in washington and probably in jerusalem listening to only like people like sam and me and not realizing and i started warning about this that look yes 10 20 of the population urban educated is 100 opposed to the regime and probably did welcome the the bombing campaign early on although i as it wore on you started to see you know the women who didn't wear the hijab and the state tv would put them on tv deliberately women without hijab with like manicured french manicured nails being like we're standing with our supreme leader um some of that is propagandistic but some of it is real sentiment but beyond that 10 20 there is like a core of the of the iranian people who support the regime it's uncomfortable for us to acknowledge but they have bled for the revolution they gave thousands of tens of hundreds of thousands of lives in the iran iraq war

### 1:03:15 seg-0069

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0069`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0069](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0069)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3795s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3795s)

they get both material benefits and sort of spiritual and ideological sustenance from the regime and they're true believers and they're the sector of society that has a kind of incumbency they're the ones who are armed and then there is the poor middle the mushy middle the 40 50 that can go now this way or not that way now after all these years after all these events i i would bet that that mushy middle has actually been dragged to the pole and i want to say that mushy middle was no longer part of the mushy middle but it was a part of the example the mushy middle was the one that was pro -regime that was supportive of the regime because no one likes to be bombed no one likes to see like the attacks like the uh like the one on the minop school in minab that killed 100 some school girls so you know

### 1:03:56 seg-0070

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0070`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0070](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0070)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3836s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3836s)

i think listening too much to this sector of of the diaspora which has a kind of rosy picture many of them like myself that's why i try to be modest about my foreign policy predictions i haven't been to iran in 25 26 And I feel sort of bad for the followers of Reza Pahlavi. I think, you know, monarchy is an ancient tradition in Iran at 2,500 years. And there was a way, I think, that he could have won something like his crown, and that was to say something like this. I deplore what's happening to my people. Even if some of it is the fault of the Iranian regime or much of it, I still will do all that's in my power to stop the West from inflicting further pain on Iran, standing up to, you know, these kind of anti -civilizational rhetoric. And then he would have become a kind of nationalist figure. But

### 1:04:47 seg-0071

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0071`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0071](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0071)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3887s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3887s)

to have said, basically, kind of become an apologist for the operation and barely raise the peep, if any, when the kind of horrors of the war unfolded, I think he's now attained a status not unlike that of the Mujahideen -e -Khal, the MEK, which was the opposition group which sided with Saddam Hussein, you know, the Iranians think you're with an enemy against the homeland. You are ostracized. So now you have this enormous group of people in the diaspora who's going to be disillusioned. Their Shah is never going to go back. They're never going to have a Pahlavi restoration. You know, you're going to have an IRGC -istan, a militarized North Korea -style regime, which is wounded in some ways, but all the more vicious for that. Yeah, I mean, let's bring Sam back in. I mean, follow me. Following the ceasefire, Reza Pahlavi addressed supporters who were disheartened by the pause in U.S. Israeli strikes, urging them to see the truth as proof of regime weakness rather than defeat.

### 1:05:49 seg-0072

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0072`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0072](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0072)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3949s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=3949s)

And he directly appealed to the Iranian armed forces to fulfill their patriotic oath by abandoning the regime and protecting the people from foreign mercenaries like Hezbollah and the PMF. But obviously there's not much sign of any of that happening. And at the same time, we have a former U.K. House of Commons speaker, John Bercow, addressing an international conference. In Paris, yesterday, where he said this. Mr. Pahlavi cannot be accused of too much arduous work over the decades. He was born into enormous wealth and privilege. He scuttled off to the United States four and a half decades ago. I'm not aware of anything useful he's done since. But apparently, he goes to bed at night. My source tells me. Eagerly entertaining the hope that the moment is nigh. The prince over the water who will come to the rescue and achieve a position of leadership.

### 1:06:58 seg-0073

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0073`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0073](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0073)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4018s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4018s)

Well, I stopped believing in fairy tales before I became a teenager. This guy's now in his mid -60s. I have to say to him, just as our little secret between Mr. and Mrs. Pahlavi, and me, mate, you are deluded. Sam, what do you make of that? You know, taking a look at a video of somebody else speaking on behalf of a lot of the Iranian people before this war started, now there may be a couple of percentage of people sort of getting away from regime change and Pahlavi dynasty going back and sort of siding with the regime. But I think, it's sort of listening to that is ridiculous. I did like his tie. I enjoyed his passion. But I think sort of speaking on behalf of other people, you know, it sort of gets ridiculous at times. And sometimes we forget that the whole reason why the diaspora of the

### 1:08:08 seg-0074

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0074`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0074](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0074)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4088s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4088s)

Iranian people that rose up and spoke on everything that was happening in Iran before this war, and even now, was to be the voice, the voice of the people of Iran and the misinformation and sort of saying what you wanted was sort of not very helpful. And it was just to echo the voices of Iran. And he was the main opposition. And he was being called out by not only the people inside of Iran before this blackout, but also the diaspora as well. And it's hard to say that if you take a look back at history and let's say, you know, you can say, you can example countries like North Korea. But what about South Korea? What about Germany? What about, you know, Hungary? What about some of the Scandinavian countries? And what about the countries that when it came to America helping out and America getting into war again, wars never resolves anything. But in history, it has freed countries and it has made countries great.

### 1:09:11 seg-0075

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0075`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0075](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0075)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4151s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4151s)

And, you know, if you take a look at the Iranian regime, the regime is, is stacked with layers on the way this regime was designed. That's the main issue, not the opposition group, not the countries. You know, if you if you take a look at Israel, sure, Israel has done some, you know, their own stuff in Palestine and in Iran. But the Iran, the people of Iran are the ones that are being shut down and shut out by the Internet. So we are that's that is the main issue. The biggest issue is we are not really understanding, the percentage of people. I don't think it's 20 to 30 % of the people. I think it's a lot more than that. And it's not that we are getting bombed. This whole thing started of how weird it was as an Iranian to say, I'm

### 1:10:00 seg-0076

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0076`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0076](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0076)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4200s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4200s)

glad another country is coming in because how badly their own government was handling and managing the government. This wasn't about, you know, wearing your hijab or covering. This was about just economic management. I mean, you got to, you got a country that's supposed to be one of the wealthiest, these countries in the world and they don't have Internet. They don't. Is it better, though? Is it better, though, San on that point? Is it better to have an organic overthrowing of a leader, as we saw in Syria recently with Assad, for example, where it's driven by people from within Syria? Is that the the best way to affect regime change? In other words, you know, it was interesting what what Sarah said earlier, because I think it was Sarah, where, you touched on the fact that some people in Iran may well have rallied behind the regime against the bombing, not because they like the regime, but because they hate the bombing more.

### 1:10:59 seg-0077

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0077`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0077](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0077)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4259s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4259s)

And I talked last week on the show about a Kosovan who runs a cafe near me who said it reminded him he had had some Iranian customers come in who said they had done that exact thing. You know, they were very anti the regime, but they were more pro their country. Then they were the country being bombed by outside forces. And he said it reminded him of what happened in Kosovo when NATO attacked Milosevic is that quite a few Kosovans did in in the end put their country ahead of their hatred of Milosevic. And you know that could explain why you're not seeing any uprisings at the moment, along with the obvious issue of this bombing everywhere and so on, and the memory of what happened in January. But what do you think to that argument? I think the Iranian people don't have, like I said, they're they're

### 1:11:49 seg-0078

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0078`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0078](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0078)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4309s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4309s)

cut in between two blades on the sharp end of of the sword and and they're sort of they don't have anything but to sit and back and take the damage that's happening. And the problem with the Iranian government is they've they've used that tactics for years. I mean, they've used propaganda that was their most dangerous weapon that they used, but their second was brainwashing. And now that's gotten to an end. I mean, it's been 50 years of that. People have social media, people have Internet, people see how even Saudi Arabia and Dubai has become such successful countries and they use and they're being managed by by people that are using their brain. So I think they've sort of have lost that trust within their own government for years, but they've been abandoned. I mean, these people are extremely feel bad for us. For every single person that's inside of Iran because they don't have their own government.

### 1:12:50 seg-0079

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0079`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0079](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0079)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4370s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4370s)

They're totally on their own. They don't have anything. They don't have bank systems right now working. They don't know what the future is. They don't have basic Internet, but it's the mentality of their own government. They rather their own government being bombed. But yes, be careful what you wish for. I mean, you never if you never, you know, been bombed before, never seen that. Of course, you're going to be frightened. You know, of course it's going to be a moment where you're going to realize this is so bad we're getting hit by every single angle of life. Yeah. Um, so I bring you back in because on this issue of propaganda that there's a meme that we have here of what they're talking about, which is the way the Iranian regime is kind of using digital propaganda to get to people in the West in particular. Let's take a look. Yeah, keep that same energy.

### 1:13:48 seg-0080

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0080`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0080](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0080)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4428s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4428s)

You ain't nothing but a fraud. You're calling what he is. Hey loser, come closer. Billionaire. Your whole empire. A liar takes the crown. Clown. You drop in your tower. Morally bankrupt. You know, what's interesting about that to me, I think, Sarab, is it's well made. It's very slick. It was commissioned by the Iranian regime and not all the memes coming out of Iran are using humor. This one was posted a few days ago by the Iran embassy in Tajikistan, mocking President Trump. As Jesus, after Trump obviously reposted that meme. Let's take a look at this. Your reckoning has come. What is this? So, you know, it's sort of effective use of modern social media tools to get their point over. And I think it's undeniably been quite effective. What do you think, Sarab? Yeah, look, I mean, notice how much more nimble they are in terms of their messaging. What they're trying to

### 1:15:11 seg-0081

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0081`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0081](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0081)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4511s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4511s)

do is, is drive a wedge between, Western, especially American, uh, domestic audiences that didn't vote for this war. A lot of the people who rallied to Trump in 2024, young men, about a fifth of African American men, a half of Hispanic men, they thought they were getting, uh, the peace ticket as the RNC called itself. And it was one of the most appealing things about President Trump beginning in 2016, is he ran as, uh, a critic of the neoconservative hawkish establishment in both parties that had launched a bunch of point, what he called disastrous wars in that famous, uh, February, 2016 debate with Senator, uh, with Jeb Bush, Senator Cruz, and the others. You know, at the time it was, I was on the right and still some ways of, of the right, but it was so taboo to point out that Iraq had been a disaster and Trump just came out and said it.

### 1:16:12 seg-0082

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0082`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0082](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0082)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4572s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4572s)

And he flipped the script. Totally on all of this stuff. And that's what made him attractive. And so then for him to launch wars gives the Iranians an opportunity in their propaganda to separate his supporters from the, from the administration. And again, it's nimble in the sense that the target is Trump or what the Iranians call the so -called Epstein class and things like that. They don't, they don't attack a whole American civilization. By contrast, you have, you know, figures like secretary of war, Pete Hexeth, and, and, uh, president Trump using this very crude rhetoric, targeting a whole civilization or talking about driving Iran back to the stone age, having, as you pointed out, peers launched the war on the promise of help is on the way. And how did you feel Sarah about the, the attack on the Pope, Pope Leo, the first American Pope, obviously, which came in the same sort of 48 hour cycle as Trump reposting a meme of himself as Jesus.

### 1:17:12 seg-0083

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0083`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0083](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0083)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4632s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4632s)

Even though he now, uh, ridiculously pretends he thought he was a doctor, but this sort of double pronged attack, both on sort of mocking Christianity in a way that offended, even his most committed MAGA supporters. Many of whom of course are very committed to, uh, to Christianity, probably more intently than they are to Trump himself. So completely crazy thing to do. I thought politically, nevermind anything else, but the attack in particular on the Pope, who his only argument has been that he just wants the war. War to stop. He thinks war is bad because it kills a lot of people. What did you feel about that as a Catholic? Well, look, I was, I was, I was offended, you know, as, as Catholics, we, we look to the Pope as, as a, as a spiritual father. He's, he's the vicar of Christ. He's the successor of St.

### 1:18:01 seg-0084

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0084`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0084](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0084)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4681s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4681s)

Peter. In the book of Acts, there's a, there's a verse that says that when Peter came around, uh, the, the people would bring their, the, the, the ill and disabled and his, they would lay their disabled and sick people in, in the path of Peter so that his shadow might fall on them and heal them. So that's the kind of level of authority you're talking about. And, you know, there was something bizarre about that message of saying Pope Leo is weak on crime, as though he's talking about like a local mayor. Um, and it suggests, it really did go into dementia territory because I think Trump has like a grab bag of insults in his head. It's like, Barack, Hussein Obama, we can't crime Leo, we can't man, you know, so, and look, the fact is that Pope Leo is also not only speaking from this deep tradition of, of the just war theory that the Catholic church has developed, where war is seen as an evil.

### 1:18:55 seg-0085

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0085`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0085](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0085)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4735s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4735s)

And it doesn't say that you can never wage war, but it has to be under very strict conditions. And he's not only speaking from within that tradition, but he's also just addressing where popular sentiment is in the United States. Pope Leo has a plus 34 popularity rating in the United States. Trump has a negative 12, depending on which poll you look, some are much worse, has a negative 12 spread, like a popularity or favorability spread. So it's bizarre to take, even politically speaking, again, set aside the morality of it, it's weird to pick a fight like that with the Pope and to pick a fight and treat him like any other politician rather than a global spiritual leader. Yeah, I agree. I agree. Just finally, Sam, I was struck by the fact the new Iranian president, Massoud Pazikian, backed the

### 1:19:45 seg-0086

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0086`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0086](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0086)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4785s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4785s)

Pope, posting his holiness, Pope Leo, I condemn the insult to your excellency on behalf of the great nation of Iran and declare the desecration of Jesus, the prophet of peace and brotherhood, is not acceptable to any free person. I wish you glory by Allah. A pretty extraordinary thing to see coming out of the mouth of the president of Iran. Were you surprised to see that? And what do you make of this whole, this whole row that Trump's having with the Pope? Absolutely not. I'm not surprised for the Iranian government to use any opportunity that they have to target and to try to be the good guys here. I mean, that's what they've done the best. That's what they've done to get power and that's what they continue doing. And the only people that are seeing through the lies are the people of Iran that are asking for some sort of a change, for a better future.

### 1:20:32 seg-0087

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0087`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0087](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0087)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4832s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4832s)

So, you know, watching, growing up in a country like that and being brainwashed and sort of being, you know, told something that's not and sort of having the whole politician, very, very bad politician that the Iranians are, sort of give me the understanding that politics was no longer the interest to me. And, you know, when I look at these things online, I figure sometimes when things are being said, they could be the most anti -American thing, even though you are trying to be very American. So that's where my issues with politics come in and, you know, just being an Iranian born and seeing what that country turned into and the management part of it made me just hate politics and then fall in love with humanity and really try to pick up from the person and not just what they're saying. So, you know, I cannot get good energy and good vibes if we want to put it into simple terms from the people, from the government of Iran.

### 1:21:35 seg-0088

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0088`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0088](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0088)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4895s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4895s)

Absolutely not. So I don't care. I don't care. What they do, even if they tweet my picture and say we love Sam, I don't care. I don't want to hear from them whatsoever. Very quickly, Sam, because we run out of time, but let's go forward six months. Putting aside what you hope would happen, based on where we are today, what do you think will happen? Eventually, within the six months range, I think it's a short amount of time to really determine what's going to happen. But for the people of Iran, what I'm hearing from the inside, is that this is only going to get better. And I hope this war stops and I hope there is a deal into a new future for the people of Iran, new management. And I think it's more realistic to look down three to five years to see real change coming from that government.

### 1:22:28 seg-0089

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0089`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0089](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0089)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4948s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=4948s)

And I think that that regime is going to get weakened and they are not going to be as iron fist when it comes to their ideology as the previous leaders were. And I think, you know, within the years, they're only going to be weakened and we're going to have an opportunity to create a leader for that country by the people, from the people. Okay, Saurabh, quickly, what do you think? Look, I think that there's going to be a non -agreement agreement where President Trump walks away and various countries strike bilateral deals to give some sort of toll to the Iranians, which will count as their reparation, as their consolation prize for this. There's going to be kind of uneasiness and uneasy relationship with Israel ongoing, you know. So Iran will almost certainly run to China and Russia and try to beef up its defenses for the next round.

### 1:23:25 seg-0090

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0090`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0090](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0090)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5005s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5005s)

But I don't see, you know, regime change of any kind. I think that this crew will continue to be in charge. You can kill this guy, but there's layers and layers behind each one leader. What you will see though, I think Sam's right in one sense, which is they're going to lay down a lot of money, but they're not going to let up on some of the sort of morality policing. Honestly, the hijab thing had already, the hijab rule had already been severely weakened. It's still on the books, but they weren't really enforcing it after the 2022 uprising. So you see right now, I mean, I watch state TV daily just to get a sense of what they're up to. And you see women without hijab on state TV, like they show them protesting on the streets. So, you know, some new be 'at, we call it, some new sort of pledge

### 1:24:10 seg-0091

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0091`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0091](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0091)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5050s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5050s)

of allegiance will form between the regime and the society, which will take into account these changes that have taken place. But in terms of Iran's strategic presence in the region and as a regime, I think it's, again, I maintain, it's only been strengthened by this war. And that's why I, you know, wish the president had listened to people like Pope Leo, who would invade against this kind of willy -nilly war making. Fascinating conversation. Thank you both very much. As I said at the top of the show, the president last week addressed the criticism that Iranian protest has never had a chance without weapons. Well, speaking to Trey Yinkster, Fox News, he said the US did try to arm the Iranians by sending weapons to the Kurds who stole them. Well, joining me to respond to that is Bafal Talabani. He's the president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Welcome back to Uncensored. Thank you, Mr.

### 1:25:06 seg-0092

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0092`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0092](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0092)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5106s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5106s)

Morgan. Did you steal them? No, I didn't actually. But, you know, Kurdistan is a tale of two cities. We're kind of a country, but not a country. We have a government that's not really a government. I can guarantee you on the Suleymaniyah side, not a peep was stolen. And I think you have enough friends in the administration to confirm that. I can't speak for the other side. So what was your view of what President Trump said? I mean, if that's the case, and I'm sure that those words didn't come out of nowhere, I think it's absolutely shameful. I mean, if it's one thing, to think that that tactic of using the Kurds as the bulwark of the assaults was a bad idea, but it's a completely other thing to steal from your allies. Would there be any repercussions? I wouldn't want to steal from Mr. Trump, would you? Not particularly. No, I presume there will be.

### 1:26:04 seg-0093

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0093`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0093](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0093)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5164s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5164s)

In terms of the wider war, what is your perspective on where we've reached here six weeks on? Looking at it a bit differently, Mr. Morgan, I think that patience is required, is the number one thing. But I think that instead of a small win, there could be the opportunity for a larger win if the Americans are thinking that way. And Mr. Trump's book indicates some of that. I think that if they concentrated on perhaps not just this immediate conflict, but all the things in the Middle East that contribute to this conflict and exasperate this conflict, perhaps there's an opportunity for a greater understanding, a bigger deal, a deal regarding the Palestinians, a deal regarding what's happening now in Lebanon, for example. I think if the American administration went for a bigger deal, absolutely it would take more time, but the victory would be colossal and it would be a change in the Middle East.

### 1:27:04 seg-0094

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0094`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0094](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0094)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5224s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5224s)

It would be a real win. And I think the numbers in the upcoming elections in the United States would be very favorable to the Republicans. It would take... If they have the... It would take a lot of patience for that. Sorry. Sorry, sir, please. Well, no, I'll tell you, I think it would take a lot of patience. I'm not entirely sure that Donald Trump has a lot of that generally. And it would take a lot of commitment and money and so on. In terms of this idea of regime change, there was a big piece in the New York Times a few days ago suggesting that Benjamin Netanyahu painted a picture to Trump, which Trump clearly bought into, that if you decapitated the leadership of Iran and killed the Ayatollah, that it would lead to regime change. That the IRGC would basically fragment and then collapse and the people would rise up and you would have a change of regime.

### 1:27:52 seg-0095

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0095`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0095](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0095)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5272s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5272s)

Was that ever likely? And is that even possible, do you think? Honestly, Mr. Morgan, I don't believe so. I think that the bombing campaigns have had the adverse effect. You can speak to Iranians, we do. Thousands of Kurds contact us. They can even tell who's bombing from the targets, Mr. Morgan. This may be something you haven't heard before. Every time a school is destroyed, every time a university is destroyed, every time a hospital is destroyed, they know it's not the Americans. I can't see how that's helpful. And you can't bomb people into loving you. I just don't believe it. And I think the tactic is wrong. And it's having the adverse effect. We've seen people demonstrating who have been interviewed. Madam, you were here six months ago demonstrating against the regime. And they say we're not demonstrating for the regime now. We're demonstrating for our country, for our land, for our soil.

### 1:28:45 seg-0096

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0096`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0096](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0096)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5325s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5325s)

And that's understandable. I think your Kosovo example was extremely astute. Yeah, it was passed to me by Kosovo. And that's why I thought it had great credibility. And I was trying to think about what happened with the UK, for example, right? Exactly. If we were bombed here, however unpopular the government at the time, I think you would see people rally behind the country. I think it's an instinctive human reaction. It's exactly that. It's a human reaction. I think one of the dangers is, listening to the diaspora and to refugee communities. When we were in the UK, we were so against Saddam, we would have said anything. And I think that maybe the Iranians in America are wonderful, educated people. They may not be the right people to listen to. I think that the United States has great intelligence. They have very good friends that are very close to them. And I think that that's who they should be listening to.

### 1:29:42 seg-0097

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0097`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0097](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0097)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5382s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5382s)

You know, I'm optimistic now that the Pakistanis are sending a team to Tehran very soon to continue the negotiations. And I think one day where everything didn't go well shouldn't be the end of it. There was progress made, Mr. Morgan, on many of the smaller issues. I think a lot of progress was made. I've heard this from both sides. So I think given the opportunity for things to continue and this ceasefire deadline isn't written in stone, it's very easy to extend things. And my hope is that people will see sense and realize that this is one of those conflicts that violence will not resolve. Baffle Talbani, thank you very much indeed. You're always welcome on Uncensored, not least because I think you're the only guest who regularly calls me Mr. Morgan, which I greatly appreciate. So, Mr. Talbani, thank you. Thank you very much, Mr. Morgan.

### 1:30:32 seg-0098

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:interview-0ehvw2fo5-8@transcript:v1#seg-0098`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0098](https://jianglens.com/interviews/interview-0ehvw2fo5-8/transcript/#seg-0098)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5432s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ehvW2FO5-8&t=5432s)

Piers Morgan Uncensored is proudly independent. The only boss around here is me. If you enjoy our show, we ask for only one simple thing. Hit subscribe on YouTube and follow Piers Morgan Uncensored on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. And in return, we will continue our mission to inform, irritate and entertain. And we'll do it all for free. Independent uncensored media has never been more critical and we couldn't do it without you.