---
title: "Geo-Strategy #1:  Iran's Strategy Matrix transcript"
description: "Source-synced transcript archive for Geo-Strategy #1: Iran's Strategy Matrix."
source_title: "Geo-Strategy #1:  Iran's Strategy Matrix"
published_at: "2024-04-24"
source_class: "episode"
public_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript/"
markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript.md"
text_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript.txt"
source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E"
data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e.json"
---

# Geo-Strategy #1:  Iran's Strategy Matrix transcript

- Source: [Geo-Strategy #1:  Iran's Strategy Matrix](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E)
- Published: 2024-04-24, day precision
- Human transcript page: [/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript/)
- Episode page: [/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/)
- Transcript Markdown: [/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript.md)
- Transcript text: [/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript.txt)
- Episode JSON: [/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e.json)

## Transcript

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Okay, so as you know from your research, on April 1st, the Israelis struck the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing seven people, including two commanders. This is an act of war, because the embassy is considered Iranian territory, and never before has this been done intentionally, okay? And this follows the killing, the assassination of their general, Qasem Soleimani, in 2020, right? This is when the Americans launched a drone strike against him in Baghdad, and he was really the top, one of the top Iranian generals. And what both of these incidents show us is that the Americans and the Israelis have dominance over Iran. Okay? So, military dominance. So, the first thing is they have technology, right? So, technologically, America and Israel are so much superior to Iran, so that there's a jet that went from Israel and went to Damascus to carry out the strike. Now, if you did the research, you would know that the Canadian embassy is right next to the Iranian embassy.

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And the strike... The strike was so precise that it only hit the Iranian embassy, and didn't touch anything else, okay? That's a precision strike. That's how powerful the technology that the Americans and the Israelis have, okay? But the other thing that's important is the idea of intelligence. So, how did the Israelis know that these commanders would be there at that time, right? That's intelligence. And intelligence comes in two forms, right? There's the idea of human. And then signals. Signals is basically, I can listen in on your cell phone. I can track where you go. I know where your car is, right? That's signals. Electronic intelligence. The other is human. So, there are spies in the embassy who tell the Israelis that this meeting will happen. Okay? So, this is clearly military dominance that Israel and the Americans possess over Iran. And when this strike happened... As you know, the Iranians had to respond, and this was called Operation True Promise.

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And the idea of True Promise was that there's a strike package, okay, consisting of 300 drones and missiles that hit Israel. Now, what the Israelis say is that 99 % of these drones and missiles were intercepted. They caused no damage. And the Israelis says, this shows that our Iron Dome system is amazing. We're amazing. Iran cannot touch us. What the Iranians said is that, no, we designed the attack to be harmless. We intentionally designed the attack so that it would not cause that much damage. Okay? So, who's right? The Israelis or the Iranians? I want to make an argument to you today that the Iranians are more believable, more credible. Okay? And the reason why is that the Iranians have to be very strategic in their response to the Americans and the Israelis. And the reason why is the Americans and the Israelis have military dominance over Iran.

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But just because you have military dominance, it does not mean you'll win the war, okay? So, what I believe is that Iran and Israel are committed to a war. And it's possible that in two years' time, there will be a ground invasion of Iran, okay? But it's going to take time to build up to the ground invasion. But just because the Americans and the Israelis attack Iran does not mean they will win, okay? And the reason why is that, as you know from your research, in 2002, the Americans actually tried to invade Iran, okay? They ran a simulation called the 2002 Millennium Challenge. And the idea is, let's pretend that we will invade Iran and let's see what happens. So, they divide the military into two teams, right? Team USA and Team Iran. Now, if you know anything about the American military, you will know that it is the most dominant, powerful military ever to exist in the world.

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In human history, okay? It is crazy powerful. If the entire world were to get together and say, let's go fight the United States, the world would lose. The United States has the most powerful military in the entire world, okay? And Iran, it's a very poor country. So, the United States invaded Iran and they wanted to see what would happen. And it turned out that, who won? Iran won, okay? And the reason why Iran won is the idea of asymmetrical warfare, all right? And this is a very important idea that you must know if you are to understand this conflict. So, what is asymmetrical warfare? All right, let's pretend that Jack and I are enemies. We hate each other and want to kill each other, okay? Jack has armor and he has a machine gun. I have nothing, okay? So, in most battles, Jack's going to kill me.

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me right but let's pretend that i live in a dark forest and it's really hard to see in this dark forest but i've been living there for decades okay so i know it's dark forest very very well so if jack attacks me in this dark forest then it's possible for me to win because i can set traps right i can play tricks on jack and that's the idea of asymmetrical warfare okay even though jack is superior because i'm inferior i'm forced to be much more strategic in how i fight against jack okay and so asymmetrical warfare means that as long as you can define the terms of engagement as long as you can control how the war is fought you will win okay so let's look let's look at what this means for you, the United States has these aircraft carriers and they cost like a billion dollars okay they're very

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expensive but they're very powerful now in a semi symmetrical warfare what happened is iran sends its entire navy against this one aircraft carrier of the united states and then what happens the united states blows up the entire iranian navy okay that's what would happen so you don't do that okay you do not send your navy against an american aircraft carrier what you do instead is you send drones okay or drone swarms so what they did in the millennium challenge was they had these suicide boats right charging these aircraft carriers and guess what guys if there's a lot of them like a thousand of them you can't stop all of them and if one hits then your boat sinks okay does that make sense okay this is what we call asymmetrical warfare now what we're going to do is we're going to go ahead and we're going to what's important to understand is that in могли

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I'mщat an asymmetrical warfare here people n't Jo and you have to control how much resources you use okay so for example this aircraft cure cost $1 billion that's wrong 2 forms Of a drone maybe a thousand dollars for a real one okay but then you have fake ones that cost $100 a thousand dollars are these drones I blow up right hundred dollars are chosen to blow up right you have a thousand of these and then you that's like $10 million and then you have 10,000 of these, and that's another $10 million, okay? So it'll cost you maybe $20 million to blow up a $1 billion aircraft carrier. Does that make sense? And this is why Iran would win a war, because Iran would employ, it's a medical warfare, drone swarms against American aircraft carriers, okay? And the true promise actually showed us that the Iranians would probably use this strategy. And the reason why

### 9:37 seg-0009

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is that the total package, the strike package, that the Iranians used cost about $10 to $30 million. But how much money did the Israelis spend to bring down these drones? Did you guys know? How much did it cost? How much did it cost the Israelis to defend themselves against this attack, okay? It was one, at least $1 billion, okay, do you understand, all right? So this shows us that in a war, Iran would use asymmetrical warfare. And even though Israel and the United States have military dominance, they may not be able to win this war, okay? Okay, so does this make sense so far, any questions about this? Okay, that's a really good question, okay? And the question really is, okay, listen, the Iranians will use this asymmetrical warfare strategy against the Americans. And so shouldn't the Americans respond with more strategic thinking? And that's a great question. And the answer is the Americans would not do that, why not?

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Why is it? Why is it? Why is it asymmetrical warfare is so effective against empires and dominant military powers? What's the problem of empires usually? What is the biggest problem? What is the fatal flaw? Okay, they have too much bureaucracy, but Iran also has bureaucracy. But the empires have a much bigger problem, okay? Now let's go back to the millennium challenge. Now in the first test, in the first battle, Iran won against the United States, right? So what did the United States do? And do what? They did it again. They did another second, they did a second simulation. And the second simulation, what did they do? Exactly, okay? What the Americans said is, nope, this is cheating, guys. Did you understand? Asymmetrical warfare is cheating. You cannot cheat. And then the Americans won. Does that make sense? Okay? So remember, in the first instance, where you are allowed to use asymmetrical warfare, the Iranians won.

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Now, the Americans won. In the second instance, the Americans said, no, asymmetrical warfare is cheating. So you're not allowed to use asymmetrical warfare. You must fight us directly. And the Americans won. What does this tell us about the American military? Exactly. Thank you, okay? They are inflexible. Empires are inflexible. And the reason why is the idea of hubris, right? If you're an empire, you refuse. You refuse to admit your failings and faults. You become very stubborn, okay? So it's back to the example of Jack has his machine gun, his armor, right? He comes into this dark forest thinking, like, I'm invincible, right? And everyone's like, Jack, don't go into that dark forest. It's stupid. But Jack's like, no, I have a machine gun. I don't care, all right? So that's the situation. That's why asymmetrical warfare is so effective. Because it allows you flexibility and creativity. And the empire, the dominant power, refuses to be flexible and creative.

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Okay? Does that make sense? All right? And so the classic example of this is Vietnam. Where the Viennese were clearly dominated by the Americans. But the Viennese were using extremely creative and flexible tactics against Americans. Whereas the Americans insisted on their power. Their main military doctrine. Okay? Does that make sense? All right? Great. Okay. Any more questions? That was a great question. Thank you. Any more questions before we move on? Okay. So now I want to talk about, okay. If the Iranians are going to use asymmetrical warfare, what would it look like? And the answer is this. When Americans invade, okay, the war started. Before the invasion, the Iranians must do four things. If it is to prevail in the war. Okay? And this is what we call the Iran strategy matrix. Okay? The Iran strategy matrix means that from now on, everything they do must fit into the strategy matrix.

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Okay? It must accomplish the objectives of the strategy matrix. So the first thing it must do is unite the population. Okay? The second thing it must do is build alliances. And the third thing is win global opinion. And the fourth is weaken the enemy. Okay? So, in other words, everything that Iran is going to do from now until the actual invasion will be to accomplish all four goals at once. And it must, if it is to survive a war. Okay? It must be a full -scale American invasion. Okay? Does it make sense? All right. So, unite the population. What does this mean? Okay? It means that you win the war depending on how much your population is willing to resist the invasion. And it turns out that even though the Iranians right now are divided, okay, there's a lot of opposition towards the current government in Iran.

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As some of you know, there have been some protests over the past few years, women protesting for more rights in Iran. Okay? So, there's a lot of division in that country. But I think that most Iranians would resist an invasion. And the reason why is that the Iranians have a very bad history with Westerners. Okay? So, the example is the 1953 coup d 'etat. Okay? So, what happened is that in 1909, the British discovered oil. In Iran. It was called Persia back then. So, they created a company called the Anglo -Iranian Petroleum Company, which we now know as British Petroleum. Okay? BP. And the idea is that this company would be responsible for extracting and selling all the oil. But, unfortunately, the deal was that Iran, Persia, would only get 16 % of the oil. Of profits. Okay? They only got 16 % of profits. So, the Iranians are very upset about this. It's their oil. It's their resource.

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But they're not getting that much money out of it. Okay? It's basically stealing. So, for decades, the Iranians have been trying to renegotiate the deal. In 1953, the democratically elected government of Iran said to the British, listen, let's do 50 -50. Okay? That's fair. 50 -50. 50 % for us. 50 % for you. Right? That's a fair deal. And the British, instead of saying yes, went to the Americans. And the British and the Americans together launched a coup d 'etat against the democratically elected government of Iran and installed a police state called the Shah. Okay? The Shah. Which is like the monarchy. Okay? And the Shah, the king of Iran, was so brutal that he created a police state. In 1979, the Iranian people overthrew the Shah. Okay? And so, the Iranian people do not like the idea of foreign invaders coming in and controlling the resources. Okay? Does that make sense? So, over time,

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as Israel and as America continues to be aggressive towards Iran, the population will start to coalesce. And fight against the Americans. Okay? So, let's unite the population. Second is build alliances. Now, Iran has two layers of alliance. The first layer is called the axis of resistance. Right? Which I asked you to research. And the axis of resistance includes the Shia militias in Iraq. Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas, and the Houthis in Yemen. Now, what's important to understand is that this is not an alliance. Sorry. What's important to understand is that this is an alliance. Okay? They agreed to fight together because they have common interests. Which is to remain independent of American influence. Okay? But that does not mean that Hamas is a terrorist. Hezbollah and Hufis take orders from Iran. They're not controlled by Iran. Iran supports them militarily and financially, but Iran cannot completely control their behavior. So the example is, on October 7, Hamas launched an attack against Israel, which resulted in this war.

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And Iran says, we were not involved. And Israel says, that can't be true because you control Hamas. So that's the first layer of alliance. But what Iran needs to do, if it is to win the war, is also bring in Russia and China. Russia wants the United States to fight Iran. Why? Yeah, but true, to distract and weaken the United States and also to move the attention away from Ukraine, right? Does that make sense? True, because Russia is about to win the war in Ukraine. And if there's a war in Iran, then the United States will be forced to divert resources from Ukraine into Iran, okay? What would Russia bring to the table? Russia will probably not deploy soldiers. But what Russia would do is say to the United States, when you invade Iran, you are not allowed to use tactical nuclear weapons, okay?

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Understand? Russia, Russia would say that, hey, United States, if you use weapons, nuclear weapons against Iran, we will use nuclear weapons against you, okay? So basically, Russia would limit the military options of America in a war, which would be of tremendous benefit and advantage to Iran, does that make sense? China needs to help Iran, why? What does Iran have that China really needs? What does Iran have that China really, really needs? It really needs this. The Chinese economy needs what? Oil, right? So basically, China can afford for the United States to take over both Iraq and Iran, because then it can control the energy supply to China, okay, does that make sense? So China would involve itself over time in order to make sure that it's able to obtain oil from Iran. From the Middle East. China right now is getting most of its oil from the Middle East, okay? But it will take time for Russia and China to get themselves involved.

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For Russia and China to get themselves involved in this conflict, Iran must prove two things. What are these two things? What must Iran show to China and Russia in order to get China and Russia involved in this conflict? If you're China and Russia, you're an investor, right? You're an investor, right? Why will I invest in you, Iran? Why? Exactly, okay? So the first thing is, we will fight. Second thing is, we will win, okay? So this will take time for Iran to prove this to Russia and China. And the more that Iran can show it can win, the more that China and Russia will invest in Iran, both financially and militarily and politically, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, so this will take time. Okay. And the third thing is win global opinion. So how will Iran win global opinion? What's happening right now that's helping Iran win global opinion, basically?

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What's happening in the world right now that is helping Iran win global opinion? Or why is the world becoming more supportive of Iran? What thing is happening right now that is outraging or angering the world? What's happening right now? What's Israel doing right now that is outraging the world? Yeah, Gaza, okay? So this is really important for Iran. It must maintain the world spotlight on Gaza, okay? Because what's happening in Gaza, it's basically genocide, right? Where the Israelis are committed to solving the Palestinian problem once and for all. That basically means removing the Palestinians from Gaza. They can go to Egypt. They can go to Jordan. It doesn't matter, okay? But the Israelis want them out of Gaza, okay? And so this will go on for many, many years. And as long as the attention is on Gaza, then people will become much more sympathetic towards Iran over time, okay?

### 25:23 seg-0021

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1523s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1523s)

If you've been following the news about America, there have been major protests at Yale and at Columbia and other universities about what's happening in Gaza. And the last is weaken the enemy, okay? So what does this mean? It means that when the United States invades Iran two years from now, six years from now, who knows? But when it does so, it wants to build a large coalition of forces, okay? Because then it gives itself legitimacy, right? So this coalition will consist of NATO, Middle East countries. And Israel, Saudi Arabia, many, many countries. And what Iran needs to do is create conflict and dissent in this coalition, okay? And the way it does that is by building up internal dissent, okay? Does that make sense? There are many people, most people in America do not support a war against Iran. Okay? And so Iran needs to encourage this internal dissent, okay? It can also create conflict between NATO and the United States, okay?

### 26:53 seg-0022

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1613s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1613s)

Because obviously, America will want NATO involved in its invasion of Iran, but why would France and Germany want to involve itself, right? Okay? Does that make sense? So these are the four major goals of Iran. And it must accomplish all four goals if it is to survive an invasion, okay? So from now on, everything that Iran does will be to accomplish all four goals, okay? And this is part of asymmetrical warfare. Does that make sense? All right. Now let's look at a concrete example. The concrete example is Operation True Promise. Why did Iran design Operation True Promise? Operation True Promise, the way it did. And the answer is to accomplish all four goals, right? The first is unite the population. The idea here is Iran needed to show its population that Iran can strike back against Israel, okay? So that's the first thing. Build alliances. Striking Israel is showing its allies and to China and Russia that Iran is willing to fight, okay?

### 28:13 seg-0023

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1693s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1693s)

Win global opinion. Now, what Iran said is we designed the strike to not cause damage in Israel. And the reason why is it wants to win global opinion, right? If it throws all these missiles and rockets at Israel and it kills a lot of people, then there'll be a lot of people sympathetic towards Israel. So the attack was designed not to cause any casualties. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. And if you are an observer, you think that what Iran did was right because it's a sense of fairness and justice, right? What Israel did was wrong. It attacked an embassy of Iran in Damascus. That's against international law. And Iran, to save face, to pursue justice, threw some rockets at Israel, okay? So most people think that Iran's response was... Showed restraint and it was a measured response. Okay?

### 29:19 seg-0024

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- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript/#seg-0024](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript/#seg-0024)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1759s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1759s)

Does that make sense? All right. And the last thing is weaken the enemy. Why would this weaken the enemy? Well, because after Iran attacked Israel, Israel wanted to show a strong response. Okay? The reason why is that Israel has a policy of disproportionality. So Israel is committed to disproportionality. So what does that mean? It means that if you kill one Israeli, they'll come and kill about a hundred of you, a thousand of you, okay? If you throw one rocket at them, they'll throw a thousand rockets at you. And the idea here is deterrence, right? To make you afraid of Israel so you would not dare to think to attack Israel, okay? So when Iran attacked Israel, for the first time, by the way, this is the first time that Iran has attacked Israel. When Israel was committed to a disproportionate response, who stopped Israel from a disproportionate response? Who? Yes. Why? Why would the United States say, Israel, do not strike back disproportionately?

### 30:41 seg-0025

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1841s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1841s)

Why would the United States do that? Yeah. Okay? So the United States cannot afford right now to fight another war. And also, if the United States were to fight a war, it would have to do something. It would have to do so by itself, okay? NATO would not involve itself. The Middle Eastern countries, like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, would not involve themselves either, okay? So the United States had to restrain Israel. And so this is creating conflict between Israel and the United States, okay? So that's why... So in other words, from a military dominance perspective, Operation True Promise accomplished nothing, okay? Because you blew nothing up. But from an asymmetrical warfare perspective, you accomplish all your four major goals. And that's why the Iranians claim success. And you can make the argument that from a strategy perspective, it was a very successful operation. Okay?

### 31:47 seg-0026

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1907s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1907s)

Does that make sense? All right. Any questions about this? Anything you want to clarify or you don't really understand? Okay. Does this make sense to you? Okay. So Peter asked a great question, like, hmm, this war, how will it affect us? We're going to the United States for college. We're Chinese students. Okay. And the answer is this, okay? The answer is, in a war, there's something called rules of engagement. And so before they have a war, all the major parties agree on what the rules are, okay? So for example, you look at the war in Ukraine. Now. The United States and NATO are opening up. Okay? They're openly supplying weapons and financing and intelligence to Ukraine. But from the Russian perspective, we allow that. Okay? We will not allow NATO to send troops to fight with the Ukrainians, but we will allow NATO and the United States to provide weapons and financing. Okay? Does that make sense? This is what we call the rules of engagement, the rules of war.

### 33:18 seg-0027

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1998s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=1998s)

Okay? So the same thing would happen if the United States were to invade Iran. Before the actual invasion, there would be an agreement among all major parties, which would include Iran, United States, Russia, China, Israel, about the rules of war. And so one important rule of war is you're not allowed to use tactical nuclear weapons. Okay? Iran, you may have nuclear weapons. You're not allowed to use them. United States, you have nuclear weapons. Israel, you have nuclear weapons. But you are not allowed to use them in this war. Okay? That would be the first agreement. Second agreement is that Russia and China are allowed to provide assistance in a very limited basis. Okay? So China would probably provide weapons and material. But this will not impact the relationship between China and the United States. Okay? And during this war, China will maintain a position of what we call strategic ambiguity.

### 34:30 seg-0028

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- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript/#seg-0028](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript/#seg-0028)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2070s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2070s)

And all this is saying is that China is not going to say that we support Iran. Okay? Russia will not come out and say we support Iran. Never before this war happens, Russia and China could, if they choose, sign a treaty with Iran saying that if anyone attacks you, we'll come to your aid. Right? They will not sign this treaty because they need to maintain strategic ambiguity. Okay? China and Russia do not want to be dragged into this war. Does that make sense? Okay? So my guess is that China will provide assistance to Iran, but on a very limited basis and on a basis that the United States can accept. Okay? That's the first thing. Second thing is, listen, I'm just making a prediction that this war will happen. I don't know if it's going to happen. Okay? You understand? I'm just your high school teacher. I'm not making the decisions.

### 35:32 seg-0029

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2132s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2132s)

Okay? I'm just teaching you how to think about geopolitics. And third of all, when you're actually in the United States, you'll find that there's so much anger at Israel that no one really cares about Chinese students. Do you understand? I mean, like, at that point, most Americans would... It would be like the Vietnam War, where you have this massive protest and civil unrest because there were a lot of Americans who were against the war. And quite honestly, it was a pointless war. America accomplished nothing by fighting the war. So great question, Peter. Does that make sense to you? Okay. Any more questions? Okay. Great question. Okay. So we talked about the idea of hubris, right? Emperors have hubris. And so Israel is a small nation, about eight, nine million people, right? It's not the American empire. The problem is this. The problem is that if you look at the Middle East, the strongest military power in the Middle East is Israel by far.

### 36:55 seg-0030

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2215s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2215s)

Okay? Israel does not actually need American protection. If the entire Middle East got together... If the entire Middle East got together and attacked Israel, Israel would win because this happened twice before, right? In the Yom Kippur War and the Six -Day War. So militarily speaking, Israel is powerful. And quite honestly, if the United States were to retreat from the Middle East, Israel would dominate. Okay? So even though it does not look like an empire, it's basically an empire. You understand? So therefore, it suffers from hubris. Okay? It's not going to be strategic and flexible and creative. It doesn't have to be because it has military dominance over everyone. But that's a very good question. Okay? Just because Israel is small does not mean it is weak. It's very, very powerful. Okay? Any more questions? Okay. The question is very interesting. So is America constraining Israel?

### 38:08 seg-0031

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- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript/#seg-0031](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-xeepoxqdu5e/transcript/#seg-0031)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2288s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2288s)

And you can make the argument both ways. Okay? You can make the argument that American presence in Israel is preventing Israel from starting a regional war. Okay? But you can also make the argument that Israel right now is using America to pursue a lot of its geopolitical interests. Okay? So it's a very complicated question. Okay? But I think that... I personally think that America is right now constraining Israel. Okay? Because Israel needs American support. And that constrains the actions of Israel. But if America were not around, then it's possible that Israel unleashes the full might of its military. And its military is very, very powerful. Okay? All right? But... But if America were to lead the region, then I think Israel would become the dominant power in the region. But I think the same is true for throughout the world. If America left Europe, who would become the dominant power? Germany. Right? And if America left East Asia, who would become the dominant power?

### 39:44 seg-0032

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2384s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2384s)

Japan. Okay? Okay? Does that make sense? So I would say that... The regional powers right now are Germany, Israel, and Japan. And it's an American empire that's constraining all three right now. And if America were just to go back home and isolate itself, then these three nations would rise to the top. Any more questions? That's a great question. Okay? So first of all, listen, this is all theory and conjecture, right? America has not expressed any intent of invading Iran. And if America does invade Iran, then chances are it will win the war. Okay? But an invasion of Iran, if it loses the war, it would basically mean the end of the American empire. Okay? And the reason why is, if you look at why empires collapse, it's because of three reasons. Okay? The first is the idea of extension. Okay? Over extension. It's doing too many things at once.

### 40:57 seg-0033

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2457s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2457s)

Okay? It's fighting this war in Ukraine, it's fighting this war in Iran, it's fighting this war everywhere basically. Okay? The idea of overextension. That's the first reason. Second is the idea of debt. It basically just runs out of money. Right? Because it's overextended. And this leads to the idea of civil unrest.

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2480s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2480s)

Okay?

### 41:23 seg-0035

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2483s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2483s)

So the American empire is heading into a lot of trouble over the next 10 years because all three things are happening at once. Right? Over extension, debt, and civil unrest. At the same time, the American empire is extremely wealthy and extremely powerful. So, even though America loses the war, there's still no peer competitor to the United States. But all that means is that the world will divide into different regional blocks. Okay? Where maybe Germany controls Europe. Japan controls East Asia. Israel controls the Middle East. Okay? So, more of a parallel world. Okay? A multipolar world as opposed to a unipolar world where one nation controls everything. The decline of the American empire is going to take decades, possibly centuries. Okay? But we'll talk about this in a future class. Okay? What will happen to America if it loses the war? Okay? Any more questions? Yeah? Okay. So, that's a good question. Okay. Like, okay. The ground invasion.

### 42:48 seg-0036

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2568s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2568s)

What will provoke it? Okay? And that's something that I want to spend a future class on. Okay? But, listen. We've done a lot of wars. Okay? And we know that America doesn't really need a reason to fight a war. Do you understand? It can just make up a reason. It doesn't care. So, basically, the argument is this. The argument that I want to make is that if Trump wins the presidency, then it is most likely that he will start a war against Iran. Okay? That's what I think. I think it will be Trump who initiates the war. And I think that it will happen maybe two years from now. So, this is a very complicated question. Okay? Like, what's the relationship between Israel and America? And the reason why it's complicated is that... There's something called the Israel lobby. And again, we need to spend an entire class on the idea of the Israel lobby because it makes no sense.

### 44:01 seg-0037

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2641s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2641s)

Okay? It's really hard to understand by itself. So I'll spend an entire class on the Israel lobby. And then you'll understand why there's an alliance between Israel and America. Okay? All right. But thank you. Okay? Any more questions? So just to summarize, we will do a class on Jack's question. What will the war look like and what will it mean for America if it loses the war? We'll also do a class on David's question, which is, what's the relationship between Israel and America? Okay? Any more questions? We will. Yes. We'll also be talking about the rise of Japan and Germany. Okay? All right. Any more questions? Okay. Great. I'll see you next week. Okay?

### 44:48 seg-0038

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- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2688s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEEpOxqdU5E&t=2688s)

Bye.