--- title: "Civilization #6: Elite Overproduction and the Bronze Age Collapse transcript" description: "Source-synced transcript archive for Civilization #6: Elite Overproduction and the Bronze Age Collapse." source_title: "Civilization #6: Elite Overproduction and the Bronze Age Collapse" published_at: "2024-10-08" source_class: "episode" public_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/" markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript.md" text_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript.txt" source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU" data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu.json" --- # Civilization #6: Elite Overproduction and the Bronze Age Collapse transcript - Source: [Civilization #6: Elite Overproduction and the Bronze Age Collapse](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU) - Published: 2024-10-08, day precision - Human transcript page: [/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/) - Episode page: [/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/) - Transcript Markdown: [/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript.md) - Transcript text: [/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript.txt) - Episode JSON: [/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu.json) ## Transcript ### 0:00 seg-0001 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0001` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0001](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0001) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=0s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=0s) Okay, so today we will discuss the Bronze Age collapse. I want to paint you a picture of the world in about 1200 BCE. So, in this world, the center of this world is what we call Mycenaean Greece. Across from the Mycenaean Greece, across the Aegean Sea, this is the Aegean, is what we call Anatolia. Today we refer to Anatolia as Turkey. And in Anatolia, the Hittite Empire rules Anatolia. Further south is a place called Canaan. Canaan is important. When we talk about Anatolia, we do the Bible because that is the birthplace of the Israelites. So, Canaan today is what we refer to as Lebanon, Syria, and Israel today. Canaan is a province of the Egyptian Empire. So, this is Egypt. Over here is a place called Mesopotamia. And we today call Mesopotamia Iraq. Over here is today what we call Iran. Back then it was basically Persia. Over here is Afghanistan. And then next to Afghanistan is India. ### 1:44 seg-0002 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0002` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0002](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0002) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=104s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=104s) And of course, remember, these are the steppes. So, for Mycenaean Greece, you also had the Mediterranean. And over here are the islands of Cyprus and Crete. And then over here is the Mediterranean. And over here is a place called Iberia. And over here is Britain. So, this is a map of the world in 1200 BC. And what's really important for you to recognize about this world is it's interconnected. Meaning that they are trading and communicating with each other. This is what we call the Bronze Age. And why is it called the Bronze Age? Because they're trading basically bronze during this period. Back then, bronze is like oil today. It is the basis for the economy. The very structure of their economy. Bronze is an alloy made of copper and tin. Copper and tin you have to mine. And only a few places will have these resources. So, tin is found in Britain, in Iberia, in Anatolia, in Afghanistan. ### 3:18 seg-0003 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0003` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0003](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0003) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=198s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=198s) Copper is mainly found in Cyprus, and Crete, and also in Anatolia. Now, meaning, and what this means is, in order to make bronze, you basically have to trade with the entire world. So, India, this world, the trading would go as far as from India to Britain. Even China over here was part of this world, but not to the degree as these other places. In this world, there are different ways that you can profit or make money. The first way is mining. So, basically extracting resources, tin and copper, in order to make bronze. The second way is industry manufacturing. So, making bronze from tin and copper, and then turning bronze into weapons, into pottery, to be sold elsewhere. The third way you can make money is by what? Trading, right? So, in this world, if you look at this map, basically profit the most from trading. If you look at this map, who would make the most money from trading? ### 4:55 seg-0004 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0004` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0004](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0004) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=295s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=295s) This area, right? Does that make sense? Because it is the center of the world, you have to pass through this world in order to access everywhere else. Okay? And this place over here, if you look at the map, it becomes the center of the world. Because this place becomes the logistics hub of the world, right? To get to anywhere, you have to pass through this place. And so, this place can basically collect tolls, right? This place is called what? Do you guys know? You mean? Yeah, it's the toll gate of the world, right? You have to pass through this place in order to access other places. Therefore, this place is very wealthy. This place, can you guess what this place is called? You guys, can you guys guess? Troy. Have you guys heard of the Trojan War? Okay, we will do the Iliad next semester. ### 5:58 seg-0005 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0005` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0005](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0005) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=358s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=358s) We will discuss the Iliad next class. But I want you to understand this place is called Troy. And because this place is so important, for centuries, they've been fighting wars over this place. Because it's really the center of the universe, right? If you can control this place, you become very wealthy because everyone has to pass through you. You can collect tolls. You can trade, okay? Does that make sense? And the last way you can make money off this world is what? What's the last way in which you can make a lot of money in this world? You can do it through mining, industry, trading. What else can you do to make money? Piracy, right? Does that make sense? Steel, right? Piracy, right? So when we read the Iliad, what you will discover is the Greeks who attacked Troy, they were basically pirates. Troy made a lot of money off trading and pirates went to steal a lot of their resources and wealth. ### 7:08 seg-0006 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0006` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0006](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0006) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=428s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=428s) Okay? Does that make sense? So the main point is that this world was interconnected. It was a globalized world. We call this globalization. But at the same time, it was very chaotic. It was very dynamic, okay? They traded with each other, but they also fought wars against each other. Does that make sense? And these places in the center of the universe, Mycenaean Greece, okay? Became very wealthy because they traded and they engaged in piracy. The Hittites became very wealthy. Egypt became very wealthy, okay? Because they were the center of the universe. But a couple of decades later, this entire world collapsed. This world disappeared. Meaning that Mycenaean Greece, was destroyed. It was completely burned down. And they lost about a quarter of their population. Okay? The Hittite Empire? Destroyed. And even though Canaan disappeared, and even though Egypt was not destroyed, it ceased to be a hegemon. It ceased to be a global power. ### 8:24 seg-0007 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0007` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0007](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0007) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=504s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=504s) And a few decades later, they were conquered by outside powers. Okay? After 1200 BCE, Egypt ceased to be a hegemon. A power. So, this is what we call the Bronze Age Collapse. And for the decades, scholars have been trying to figure out what happened. Why is it that in 1200 BCE, this world was wealthy, it was interconnected, and then a few decades later, it all disappeared. It collapsed. And that's a great mystery that no one has been able to solve. Okay? So, let me tell you what we know. We know that what caused this collapse are what we call the Sea Peoples. Sea Peoples. And we know because Egypt has written records of battling the Sea Peoples. So basically, over the course of a few decades, people were coming in from the west and attacking Egypt. Okay? This was not one people. This was a series of different people attacking Egypt from the sea. ### 9:39 seg-0008 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0008` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0008](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0008) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=579s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=579s) And Egypt had to spend decades in order to repulse the Sea Peoples. What we know is the Sea Peoples, whoever they were, they did destroy Egypt, but they did destroy the Hittites, and they did destroy the Mycenaean Greeks. Okay? So, and what we know is the Sea Peoples, they were basically a combination of pirates and also refugees. These people attacked Egypt because Egypt was the breadbasket of the world. That's where all the food was. So they were attacking Egypt for the food. Okay? These are people who are hungry. They joined with pirates at ships, and they were trying to take over Egypt together. They destroyed Mycenaean Greeks, they destroyed the Hittites, and they failed to destroy Greece. They were stopped in Egypt. So another question then is, what's driving this population movement from west to east? Okay? That's a great mystery. And over the past few decades, different solutions, different ideas have been proposed. ### 10:50 seg-0009 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0009` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0009](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0009) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=650s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=650s) Okay? Before, we thought that it must have been an invasion. So the idea is that what's happening is, you had people from the north of Europe invade Mycenaean Greece, which drove them westward. Okay? That's the first idea that we had. But we have not found any evidence to this, we have not found any evidence this is the case. Okay? So even though this was one of the first theories, there's actually no evidence to support this. Second theory that we had is basically, a natural disaster. So the idea is, maybe there was a volcanic explosion somewhere. Okay? And this caused the weather to change. And now farmers could no longer feed themselves, so then they started to move westwards and attack Egypt. Okay? That's the second theory. And there's more evidence for this, but the theory that we have today is a perfect storm. Okay? Or a systems collapse. And the idea ### 12:03 seg-0010 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0010` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0010](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0010) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=723s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=723s) here is that, it was not one thing in one year that caused this system to collapse, it was a series of events over decades. Okay? And these three major events are, natural disasters, or so basically earthquakes. So we have archaeological evidence, that there was a series of earthquakes in this region at this time, which destabilized the region. Okay? So earthquakes happened. We have, we also have evidence of climate change. Okay? So the weather became cooler over the course of this period, which meant that it was harder to grow crops. Okay? And we also have evidence of eternal revolt. Okay? Meaning that people rebelled against the elite, overthrew kings, and there was a lot of war and violence. Okay? So the theory that we have today is, what caused the Bronze Age collapse, was a perfect storm, basically a multiple factor, which led to systems collapse. Okay? Does that make sense guys? Any questions so far? ### 13:21 seg-0011 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0011` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0011](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0011) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=801s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=801s) Any questions so far? Are we clear? Alright. So, one thing that you have made, that you have made notice in this class is that, I have a very different understanding of history, than other people. Okay? So I happen to disagree, with, this theory of the perfect storm, even though it is the scholarly consensus. Alright? So I want to explain to you today, my theory of what happened. Alright. So the first thing you need to understand is, this system collapse, even though it was traumatic for Europe, it is not unique in human history. This sort of stuff has happened before. Okay? So if we go over here, to North America, to the Mayas, okay? So the Maya, the Maya civilization, existed in Central America. Okay? Guatemala basically. And so, we find similar pattern, where, in about 200 AD, okay? In the year 200, their civilization started to, explode. Okay? It started to increase. It reached its peak, in about 900 AD. ### 14:30 seg-0012 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0012` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0012](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0012) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=870s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=870s) Okay? In the year 900, its civilization was over the place, in Central America. But then, after the Mayas, after 900, it went all the way down. Okay? So, about 30 years time, by 1200, they're basically, their entire civilization, almost collapsed. So it's a very similar pattern, to what's happening, in the Bronze Age. So, the question then is, why does this happen? Alright? And so, to understand this, I am going to present you, with a new theory, that we will use a lot, in this class. So, I want you to understand, this theory. Okay? But it comes from, a historian, by the name of, Peter Turchin. Peter Turchin. Who's a historian. He's American, but he, came over from Russia. He's basically, Russian American. And, he has a theory called, Elite Overproduction. And, Elite Overproduction, the theory, is very interesting, because, it's, it's, arguing against, the way we traditionally understand, why societies collapse. ### 15:52 seg-0013 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0013` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0013](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0013) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=952s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=952s) Okay? So, the way we, we usually understand, why societies collapse, is, we get it from Karl Marx. And, basically, what Karl Marx says is, eventually your society, collapses because, the people revolt. Okay? So, basically, people rebellion. So, in other words, Karl Marx believes, that society collapses, because it is a, bottom up process. Okay? If you treat workers badly, they will stop working. If you force them to work, they will go on strike. If you force them to work again, they will fight against you. They will rebel. A worker revolution. Okay? That's what Karl Marx, argues. And, Peter Turchin says, okay, that's a really interesting theory, but if you look at the historical data, if you look at the evidence, the problem, is in the bottom. Okay? If you look at, why societies collapse, it's not because of, the people rebelling, it's because, there's, infighting, among the elite. Okay? So, there's civil war, among the elite. ### 17:11 seg-0014 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0014` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0014](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0014) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1031s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1031s) Does that make sense? That's his theory. If the problem with society, isn't that you, there's too many poor people, the problem, the problem is, there are too many, rich people. That's the real problem. And, that's why, societies collapse. All right? So, let me explain to you this theory slowly. Okay? All right. Elite overproduction. All right. All right. Okay. That's fine. All right. So, in this world, about 1200 BCE, we have something called a, permanent, hereditary, elite. Okay? Permanent, hereditary, elite. Permanent just means, they're always there. Okay? Hereditary means, they pass on their status, and their privilege, to the children. And, this is new, in human history. Because, before, there was an elite, but they were, not permanent. Meaning, they could be changed, over time. And, they didn't pass their privileges, on to their children. Everyone had to earn, their privilege, and power. Okay? So, the elite, was constantly shifting, in society. But now, in about the year, 1200 BCE, you had a, permanent, hereditary, elite. ### 18:41 seg-0015 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0015` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0015](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0015) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1121s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1121s) When you have that, you have three advantages. Okay? What the elite gives society, are three major advantages. The first major advantage, is the idea of, organization. Right? Basically, think of the elite, as your brain. As society's brain. They can help, ornate resources. Okay? That's good, for, war. If you're fighting an enemy, you need an elite, to lead you, into battle. Okay? It's also good for, public works. Okay? So, think of the pyramids, in Egypt, in the Great War of China. Right? You need an elite, to, organize, your resources, in order to create, public works, that benefit all society. So, the main, the main thing here, would be, irrigation. Right? Yes? So, you need an elite, in order to have irrigation. So, that's the first, major benefit, of having, a, permanent, territory, elite. Second major advantage, is, because you have better organization, you have more wealth. ### 19:54 seg-0016 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0016` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0016](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0016) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1194s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1194s) Okay? So, it becomes wealthier, if you have a, permanent, elite. People work harder. Okay? And, even though there's more inequality, inequality also forces people, to work harder. Does that make sense? Okay? And, because you have these two things, organization, and wealth, you also have, scale. And, what scale basically means, is, your population, now, can move up. Before, in the, egalitarian society, when you didn't have, a permanent elite, at most, society could reach, about 10,000 people. But now, when you have a, permanent, elite, you can reach, about a million people. Okay? So, now you can scale up. So, these are three, major, advantages, to, having, an elite. Okay? But there's a problem, with having an elite. And the, the problem is, they engage in something called, rent, seeking, behavior. All right? I want you guys, to remember this term, rent, seeking, behavior, which is very important, for our class. So, what does this mean? ### 21:10 seg-0017 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0017` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0017](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0017) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1270s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1270s) It means, basically, to think of a landlord, right? A landlord, doesn't really care, to do anything, but a landlord, has land, that it can rent, to you, the farmer, in exchange, you give me, a share, of your crops. Right? So, I don't do anything, but because I have land, I can rent it out, to you. Right? It turns out, the elite, mainly, make their money, through, rent, seeking, behavior. So, let me give you, another example, of rent seeking behavior. All of you, want to go to university. What's your purpose? What's your purpose, in going to university? Be honest. It's to get the degree, right? Okay? The degree. Okay? And the degree, is your ticket, to success in society. Okay? You believe that, you go to university, you are, getting a ticket, the degree, in order to access, social mobility. Okay? To access, wealth in society. In other words, the universities, are trying, to charge you, rent. ### 22:28 seg-0018 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0018` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0018](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0018) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1348s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1348s) Okay? So, the degree is basically, rent. Does that make sense? Okay? Now, some of you may say, wait, that's wrong, because, I'm going to university, to learn. Right? It's about learning. Well, guess what? When you actually, go to university, you're going to discover, they don't actually, teach you that much. Okay? They don't have to teach you, that much. And the reason why is, you're stuck paying, the rent. You need the degree, right? So, you don't have to actually, teach anything. You have to come to class, anyway. Does that make sense? The same thing, for the school, where, in order to get to, university, you have to go for this, high school. So, you're here, paying tuition, and you're paying rent. Does that make sense? You're not here, in the school, to learn. You're here, in school, to get the degree, so you can access, university, and get that degree. Okay? ### 23:26 seg-0019 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0019` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0019](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0019) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1406s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1406s) And all this process, is paying rent. Right? So, if you are, if you have, a school, you can charge for rent. Just as, if you're a landlord, you can charge for rent, for renting your, room, or real estate property. Okay? Does that make sense? This is what we call, rent seeking, behavior. Now, you're like, okay, well, this kind of sucks. Okay? And it does suck. But what keeps, the system together, is the idea, of a social contract. Okay? Basically, the idea of a social contract, is, yes, we the elite, we know, we are charging you rent, and we know, this sucks for you, the people, but we have a contract. So, as the elite, I'm obligated, to, help society. Okay? So, the way to help society, is, by, giving back to society. Okay? So, what the elite do, throughout society, in the past, is, they organize, public feasts. Okay? And also, public, temples. So, in today's society, you know, like the parks, the schools, they're built, by the government. ### 24:51 seg-0020 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0020` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0020](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0020) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1491s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1491s) Right? But back then, they didn't have a government, they had the elites, who were responsible, for building temples, for building, for, for holding public feasts. Okay? So this, this idea of a, social contract. Okay? And the reason why, you need a social contract, is, because if you don't have a social contract, and you just charge rent, people will leave. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So in this world, it's very chaotic, but there are different, places, there are different social organizations, you, you can go to. So if you are in, Egypt, and you don't really like Egypt, guess what? You can go to Mesopotamia. Okay? So these cities, were in competition, with each other, for people. Because people provided, labor and resources. Okay? Does that make sense? Alright? So, this is how it usually works. But over time, this system will break down. Okay? ### 25:52 seg-0021 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0021` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0021](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0021) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1552s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1552s) This system will break down. And it's, and it's because of, rent -seeking behavior. Okay? So the first issue, is this. With rent -seeking behavior, you create something called debt. Okay? So, I'm a landlord, and you're, you are, paying me rent, in order to use my land. Right? And that, land, and that rent, is usually, a portion of your crops. Okay? So you, does that make sense? Maybe 10 % of your crops. But let's just say, for example, it's a bad year. It doesn't rain. Okay? And you don't have any crops, to pay me rent. So what do you do? You're supposed to pay me a rent, but you don't have the money, so what do you do? No, that comes later. What do you do first? Hmm? Exactly. Thank you. Yes. Okay. So the first thing that happens is, boring. Okay? You basically go into debt. Okay? So you promise, to pay me double, in the next year. ### 27:05 seg-0022 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0022` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0022](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0022) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1625s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1625s) And I'm like, okay, fine. Right? But, you get unlucky, and the next year, it's also a bad year. And so for five years in a row, you, are in debt. The problem with debt is this. Something called, compound interest. Okay? Meaning like, over time, the debt becomes so large, there's no way you can pay it off. If you can't pay it off, what happens, what happens now? Okay. Good. Yeah. So the idea is debt slavery. Okay? So if you can't pay me back, you become, you become my slave. Okay? You promise me that your children will work for, work for me for free. Okay? And so, debt slavery, becomes the natural product, of rent seeking behavior. Does that make sense? Over time, you're always going to have, a percentage of your population, who go into debt slavery. And this creates a lot of, instability in society. Because obviously, they either want to run away, or they, they want to rebel. ### 28:21 seg-0023 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0023` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0023](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0023) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1701s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1701s) Okay? Does it make sense? The other problem, is, elite overproduction. And the idea here, is, everyone wants to be, the renter. Right? Everyone wants to be the landlord. Right? But there's only so much land. So now, people are competing, for, the power, to charge rent. Does that make sense? Okay? So, over time, in any society, as the population increases, the number of people, who go into debt slavery, increase. And therefore, people at the bottom, are very angry. But at the same time, the elite, the number go up, but there's only, a set number, set amount of land. And therefore, they have to fight over, the land. Okay? Does it make sense? And, so eventually, what happens, is, the society, goes, into, war. Okay? As the elite, fight each, over, as elite fight each other, for the right to charge rent. Okay? Does it make sense? And so, the ### 29:47 seg-0024 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0024` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0024](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0024) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1787s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1787s) main message, of elite overproduction, is, unless, you can control, the amount, the number, of the elite, in your society, your society, must, collapse. Does it make sense? It must collapse. Because you have, too many people, fighting for, too little power. It must collapse. So, historically, what are ways, you, what are things, you can do, to control the elite? What are things, you can do, to control, the number, of the elite? Excuse me? Kill the elite? Okay. Okay. So, so, but then, where does the property go? Okay. So, okay. So, one possible thing, you can do, is the idea of, land redistribution. Okay? So, historically, this is, one mechanism, you can use, to control, the growth, of the elite. And this is, how kings, came into power. Okay? So, most societies, have an elite, and then, one person, from the elite, said, listen, this society is not working, let me, redistribute the land, and cancel debt, in order for our society, to keep on going. ### 31:22 seg-0025 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0025` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0025](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0025) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1882s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1882s) Okay? And this person, became the king. So, that's one, possible, solution. Okay? What's another possible solution? Okay. So, you can also have a civil war. Okay? Civil war. Okay? The elite can fight, amongst themselves, and whoever wins, gets everything. Okay? So, it's a second possible solution. What's another possible solution? What's another possible solution? Okay. Empire building. Right? Does it make sense? Empire building. In other words, let's not fight, amongst ourselves, let's go and conquer, new territory. It doesn't make sense. So, because you have, you have a, permanent, territory elite. Okay? Over time, they're going to reach, a mass. Too many people. We have too many elites, you have to resolve this issue, through three ways. Okay? The first thing you can do is, kill the elite, and redistribute the land. That's what a king does. Second thing you can do, is have a civil war. Okay? ### 32:50 seg-0026 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0026` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0026](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0026) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1970s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=1970s) The third thing you can do, is, create an empire. Okay? But, these three solutions, by themselves, are, also, unstable. Okay? Because land redistribution, is basically a revolution. Right? Civil war, is war. Empire building, is also war. Does it make sense? So, no matter how you do these things, you're always going to create instability. And, eventually, your empire, your society, will collapse. Does it make sense? Alright? So, let me give you another example, of how this works. To clarify for you. Okay? So, there's a book called, Capital, in the 21st Century, by Thomas Pickens. Thomas Piketty. Thomas Piketty, is a French economist. And, this is a very famous book, that's been, that's been, recently published. And, in the book, he looked at, the past 100 years, of economic growth. And, what he discovered, over time, is, the, financial economy, grows faster, than the real economy. Capital, grows faster, than manufacturing. Okay? So, if you look at, capital, grows at, 5%. ### 34:26 seg-0027 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0027` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0027](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0027) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2066s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2066s) Real economy, grows at, 2%. Alright? If things stay stable, over time, this will happen, to all societies. Capital, will grow faster, than the real economy. What this means, is, let's just say, you have a million dollars. Okay? I have a million dollars. I have different options, to invest my money. I can start a, factory, or I can start, or I can put all my money, into, real estate, or the stock market. Where should I put my money? I can, I can open a factory, right? Or I can, put it in a stock market. Where should I, where should I put my money? Yes. And why? Exactly. Do you understand? If you have money, today, you do not put your money, into the factories. You do not open a new business. You, put it in the stock market. Because, you make more money that way. What's the problem with that? It's, yeah, exactly. ### 35:40 seg-0028 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0028` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0028](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0028) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2140s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2140s) It's just a bubble, guys. Okay? Why is it a bubble? Because, capital isn't real. It's a fiction. You understand? So, in other words, you, you don't work anymore. You understand? You're just renting now. Okay? You, you're engaging in the, rent -seeking behavior. We have too many people, doing that. You have a society, where, nobody works. Doesn't make sense. Nobody, does, any work. Because, all the, wealth, is being put, into, rent -seeking, behavior. It's being put, into, speculation. So, no one's doing, any more work. No one's creating, any more wealth. And this eventually, leads to, social collapse, at some point. Okay? Does that make sense? All right? So, Peter Turchin's theory, of elite overproduction is, because, the number of rich people, can only go up, over time, your society, must collapse, at some point. Unless, you choose, to have a revolution, or, you have a civil war, or, you go, invade other countries. Okay? ### 36:57 seg-0029 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0029` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0029](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0029) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2217s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2217s) Those are your three options. But, if you did that, that creates, more instability. So, over time, no matter how, you structure your society, it will collapse. Does that make sense? Okay? So, that's what happened, during the Bronze Age collapse, where the societies, much in Greece, high tides, Egypt, Canaan, they were, fundamentally, unstable, because, of, red seeking behavior. Okay? Same thing with the Mayans, where, okay, they were growing very fast, but eventually they collapsed. All societies, will do this, at some point. No society, is stable. Okay? And the reason why is, you have, an elite in charge, who, help society grow, but over time, they will just engage, in red seeking behavior, which will eventually lead, to collapse of society. Does that make sense? Right? And this is a pattern, that we'll see, over and over again, in human history. And we'll discuss this idea, throughout this semester. All right? Does that make sense? Any questions? All right. ### 38:15 seg-0030 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0030` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0030](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0030) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2295s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2295s) So, let's look at a very specific example, of red seeking behavior. My city in Greece. All right? My city in Greece. So, my city in Greece, and you may remember this, from last class, it was a long time ago, but last class, we talked about, the Yemnaya, right? The Yemnaya. The Yemnaya. Right? They conquered Europe. So, the Mycenaean Greeks, and the Hittites, are direct descendants, of the Yemnaya. And as you remember, this is a warrior culture. Okay? So, these societies, are warrior societies. Meaning, like, the warriors, are in charge. And, they have a system, called a palace economy. Right? A palace economy. A palace economy, is basically, the palace, is at the center, of society. Okay? And, everyone, brings their wealth, to the palace, to be redistributed, to everyone else. Okay? So, the idea here is, we're all farmers, right? And, maybe you have, 100 bushels of wheat, maybe 20 bushels of corn. Okay? ### 39:30 seg-0031 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0031` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0031](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0031) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2370s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2370s) Everyone, brings everything, to the palace. And then, the king, redistributes, everything, to you. Okay? But also, obviously, he takes a cut. Understand? So, this is called, renting behavior. Where, I'm, where, you're basically, paying taxes. Okay? Does it make sense? Okay? Now, this is fine, when, things are good. Okay? But, if there's, if the weather becomes bad, this system starts to, collapse. Why? If the weather is bad, things, start to, uh, become chaotic. Why? Okay, the reason why is, the elite, still want their cut. You understand? It's not like, oh, this year, the weather's bad, so let's just, suffer together. Okay? Let's make sacrifices together. No, it's like, no, we don't care if the weather is bad, you still have to pay our, pay our cut. Okay? You still have to pay your taxes. Right? And that creates strain, on the people. And the people get very angry. Okay? So, that during the Bronze Age, there was a, internal revolt, in, Mycenaean Greece. ### 40:58 seg-0032 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0032` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0032](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0032) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2458s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2458s) And the reason why is, we can dig up, Mycenaean Greece, okay? The palace, and we, and what we see is, the palace is burned down. But, the surrounding houses, are fine. Okay? Does that make sense? We also have written records, uh, from Mycenaean Greece, that show, how the palace economy worked. Okay? We can also dig up, the history, the graves, of the kings, and show that over time, they became wealthier, and wealthier. Because, um, when they were buried, the things they were buried with, were became, were, were very expensive. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? Um, so that's Mycenaean Greece. Any questions so far? Okay, it's clear, clear about this idea. Okay? So, so what, a lot, of scholars believe, is that, this is, the Bronze Age Collapse, was a unique event, in European history. And what I'm trying to show you is, it was not a unique event, it was not a revolution, it's just part, of the natural cycle of history. ### 42:16 seg-0033 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0033` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0033](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0033) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2536s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2536s) Because when you have the elite, who engage in rhetoric and behavior, eventually, this society will collapse. Because you have too many elite, who want their cut. Okay? And, when we look at, other, societies, you would, you would discover this, this pattern, repeated over time. It repeats itself. All right? So, this is, this is Peter Turchin, his theory of elite, over, production. Are we clear? Yes? Okay. All right. So, okay, let me clarify, about my city in Greece. Okay? All right. The problem is, that you have too many, rich people, who want to charge rent. Right? And that creates pressure, on society. And this instability, means that your society, is no longer, sustainable. You're resilient. Resilient. And the idea, idea of resilience, is, that it survives, disasters. Right? So, think of a tower, that's about to collapse. Okay? ### 43:36 seg-0034 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0034` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0034](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0034) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2616s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2616s) It will not collapse, on its own. Something must hit it, for it, for it to collapse. But this one thing, could be anything. Okay? It could be, the people get angry, and they riot. It could be, the weather turns bad. Okay? It could be, there's an earthquake. It could be, there's a fire. My city in Greece, high tides, the Canaanites, they collapsed, for different reasons. But, the fundamental reason is, because their societies, were unstable. The reason why, they were unstable is, you had too many, elite people, trying to charge rent, on everyone else. Does that make sense? Okay. Any, any more questions? That, that's a good question. Thank you. Excuse me? Oh, can you avoid this cycle, in today's society? Okay. That's a good question. And the answer is no. Okay? It is impossible, to build a society, that, that is stable, over, a long period of time. In fact, you can make the argument, that it is good, for societies, to rise and fall. ### 44:49 seg-0035 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0035` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0035](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0035) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2689s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2689s) Okay? It's the same thing as, it's really the same question as, is it possible, for us to live forever? Is it possible for us to live forever? And then the question then is, why would we want to live forever? You understand? Innovation happens, when we die. Okay? So, what's amazing about, about the Bronze Age collapse, is, because the Bronze Age collapsed, Mycenaean Greece, changed, into a new society, that gave us, Greek civilization, which then gave us, Western civilization. Okay? So in other words, if Mycenaean Greece did not collapse, we would not have, today. Also, because Canaan collapsed, a new society, came into being, called the Israelites. Okay? Israel. And Israel gave us what? You guys know? The Bible. Right? And guess what, guys? The Greeks, and the Bible, are the two foundations, of Western civilization. So we would not, have Western civilization, if, these, societies did not collapse, and new societies could come, into being. ### 46:09 seg-0036 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0036` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0036](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0036) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2769s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2769s) Alright? So you can make the argument, that, innovation, progress, is driven by, death and collapse. Alright? Do you understand? And if we, if, if we did not die, if we, if we did not, if we did not die, if we did not collapse, there'd be no progress. Okay? Does that make sense? But that's a good question. Okay? But, but, and people will have been, debating this question, for a long time. But I think the answer is, that, it is impossible, to build a society, that lives forever. Even though people have tried. And also, we shouldn't even try. Okay? Because, collapse is good. Also think of a, forest fire. Have you, have you guys studied forest fires, in school? In science class? Forest fires. Forest fires guys. Each time there's a forest fire, okay, the forest burns down, that's good. Because, it allows, the forest to, regenerate, and become stronger. ### 47:22 seg-0037 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0037` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0037](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0037) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2842s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2842s) Right? What happens if you don't have a forest fire? Do, do you guys know? Okay. The resilience goes down. Okay? And also, the ecosystem, is less, vibrant. There are less, there are less animals, the trees are less strong. Okay? Do you understand? So that's why, it's important to burn down the forest, now and then. Because you don't burn down the forest, and there's, then, it's less resilient. So there's a, big forest fire, it will just spread, and destroy the entire forest. Okay? Does that make sense? So it's good for societies, to constantly, change, over time. Any more questions? Okay. That's a great question. Okay? All right. So, before we talk about, egalitarian societies, right? How they were at most, 10,000 people. And they did have an elite. Okay? They had an elite. They had people in charge, but this elite, didn't own the property. There was no property. There was no private property. ### 48:44 seg-0038 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0038` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0038](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0038) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2924s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2924s) Okay? So it's egalitarian. And, so, these societies, were, pretty stable. Okay? And the reason why is, usually, it was, the woman in charge, and the woman, could, were good at controlling, population. Okay? Because as a woman, you have control over your body. So you could choose, not to have children, or have less children. And, it was very peaceful. Right? People didn't really fight. There was nothing to fight over. Everything was owned by everyone else. Okay? The problem, with, egalitarian societies, are these three things. Okay? They're less organized. Meaning, like, they are less willing, or less able, to create public projects. Okay? They have less wealth, and therefore, they have less scale. Okay? You can have, at most, 10,000 people. Which means what? Which means, like, eventually, they'll be conquered. Okay? Does that make sense? Because, if you are, one of these societies, okay? It does constantly expand, in order to, please the elite, basically. ### 49:52 seg-0039 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0039` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0039](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0039) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2992s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=2992s) Okay? Either you expand, or you fight a civil war. And so, you take over egalitarian societies, and you make them into, your society. Okay? Do you understand? So, for most of the human history, we're egalitarian. But that's because, we didn't have that many people. Right? But, over time, as population increases, then, you are less egalitarian. You become more unequal. You stay egalitarian, you will eventually be conquered by, a, not an egalitarian society. Does that make sense? All right? All right. But that's a great question. You're exactly right. Okay? For most of the human history, we're egalitarian. But, once we start to develop, elite societies, okay? Kingdoms, then it could easily conquer, egalitarian societies. Any more questions? But, but that's, that's a fantastic question. Okay? Any more questions? And when we do, so, we are skipping ahead, but when we do Samaria, Samaria, which is basically, many different city -states, in Iraq, Mesopotamia, what we, what we will discover, is that, there are different social structures. ### 51:18 seg-0040 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0040` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0040](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0040) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=3078s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=3078s) Okay? There are different social structures, including societies that were egalitarian. But, when you're in competition with each other, societies that are, you know, more organized, more wealthy, now bigger populations, will always win out, over, other societies. Okay? You have these three things, you need a, permanent, territory, elite. Because then they are more, incentivized, in order, to, work harder. Okay? Does that make sense? And then the question then is, okay, why is that true? And it's true, because, for societies, that are, become wealthier, you don't need everyone, to work hard. You just need a, certain number of people, to work hard. You just need a small group of people, to work hard. Okay? Does that make sense? So think of, like, China, right? How China became wealthier, these past, 30, 40 years. And the reason why is, you had a small number of entrepreneurs, who worked, really, really hard. ### 52:21 seg-0041 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0041` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0041](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0041) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=3141s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=3141s) Okay? Not everyone worked hard. Okay? But, because you had these people, who did work really hard, does that make sense? Okay? Any more questions? Okay. So, great. Okay? So, again, what makes this class different, from other classes is, we are looking at the entire scope, of human history. All right? And so, it's very important for you to, not understand, not remember the facts. Okay? I don't need you to remember the facts. Okay? I don't need you to remember, Mycenaean Greece, or, the Sea Peoples. But I do need you to remember, the concepts, and the ideas. Okay? How, the world, history, is constantly in competition, with each other. And, why is it that some ideas, win out, over other ideas? Okay? So, I'm not saying, this is the best idea. Okay? I'm not saying, a permanent, territory elite, is a really good idea. I don't think it's a good idea. Okay? ### 53:22 seg-0042 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu@transcript:v1#seg-0042` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0042](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-qwfb-vxxkwu/transcript/#seg-0042) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=3202s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwfB-vXXKWU&t=3202s) But I'm showing you, why it wins out. And, how it impacts human history, and the development of civilization. Does that make sense? Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Okay. Well, that's it.