--- title: "Geo-Strategy #4: Saudi Arabia's Trump Card Against Iran transcript" description: "Source-synced transcript archive for Geo-Strategy #4: Saudi Arabia's Trump Card Against Iran." source_title: "Geo-Strategy #4: Saudi Arabia's Trump Card Against Iran" published_at: "2024-05-15" source_class: "episode" public_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/" markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript.md" text_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript.txt" source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns" data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns.json" --- # Geo-Strategy #4: Saudi Arabia's Trump Card Against Iran transcript - Source: [Geo-Strategy #4: Saudi Arabia's Trump Card Against Iran](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns) - Published: 2024-05-15, day precision - Human transcript page: [/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/) - Episode page: [/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/) - Transcript Markdown: [/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript.md) - Transcript text: [/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript.txt) - Episode JSON: [/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns.json) ## Transcript ### 0:00 seg-0001 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0001` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0001](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0001) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=0s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=0s) Okay, let's start class. So let's review where we are. We are discussing or exploring why the United States would want to invade Iran. And so far we have two good reasons. The first good reason is called the Israel lobby. There are, in the Israel lobby, millions of Christian Zionists who believe that a conflict in Middle East, especially between Israel and Iran, will bring Jesus back to earth. They want their God, Jesus, to return to earth, and they believe that a war in the Middle East will force him to return. That's the first reason. Second reason. Third reason is the idea of an empire. America is an empire, and as an empire, it has a lot of privileges. For example, it can just print as much money as it wants, US dollars. Right now, America is $34 trillion in debt, and the debt is growing by $20 every two months. America can do this as long as it is an empire. ### 1:21 seg-0002 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0002` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0002](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0002) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=81s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=81s) As long as people fear America. But as we discussed in the last class, with Putin's invasion of Ukraine, people are now starting to rebel against the empire, and therefore America must demonstrate it still is the military hegemon of the world, and therefore it can do this by invading Iran. Today we look at the third and final force driving conflict in Middle East. And it's really the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Most people think that Iran's major enemy in the Middle East is Israel. In fact, Iran's major enemy is Saudi Arabia. These two are bitter rivals. And to understand why, we have to look at their history. So the year is 1979. And there's a story. At the start of 1979, Saudi Arabia and Iran are very good friends. So let's look at a map of the Middle East. Iran is here. It's next to Iraq. Saudi Arabia is down here. ### 2:41 seg-0003 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0003` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0003](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0003) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=161s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=161s) Then this is Egypt. You have Yemen here, Oman. This is the Strait of Hormuz. And this is the Suez Canal. Okay? The Red Sea, basically. And in 1979, Saudi Arabia and Iran were very good friends. They had a lot of similarities. They were both monarchies. They were ruled by a king. They were secular. They relied on American power to defend itself. And they were both oil exporters, both very prosperous oil exporters. But then, in 1979, Iran was in power. And in 1979, a political earthquake radically changed the landscape of the Middle East. In 1979, there was a bottom -up revolution called the Islamic Revolution. Before 1979, there was a general consensus agreement in the Middle East that religion and politics would be separated. But in 1979, the people in Iran... Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. ### 4:29 seg-0004 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0004` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0004](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0004) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=269s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=269s) Iran. a Muslim people, as people who believe in the Islamic religion, the government should be focused on Islamic law, okay? So in a referendum, 98 % of the people of Iran voted to install an Islamic Republic to replace their monarchy and this was completely unexpected and this caused an earthquake throughout the Middle East. In November of 1979, 600 religious extremists tried to besiege Mecca, okay? Mecca is the holiest city in the Islamic religion because it is the birthplace of the prophet Muhammad. 600 extremists tried to take the city over and demand three things, okay? That the Saudi be the policies of the Islamist leaders, that the Saudi Arabian monarchy should abdicate. The United States should remove itself from the eternal affairs of Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia should be governed by Islamic law. Now this revolt was crushed by the military but from that day on Iran and Saudi Arabia became bitter enemies because they were both trying to install their vision of Islam on the Middle East. ### 6:19 seg-0005 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0005` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0005](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0005) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=379s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=379s) So this rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia took three forms. The first form is religious. So even though they're both Muslim countries, Islamic countries, they have different versions of the religion. So even though they're both Muslim countries, Islamic countries, they have different versions of the religion. So Saudi Arabia is Sunni and Iran is Shiite. Now you may ask what the difference between these two different branches of the religion are and the answer is no one actually knows. It's a very complicated issue. The major difference is this. In 610 the Prophet Muhammad in Medina in the city of Medina had a vision to found a new religion called Islam. Okay? And he spread this religion throughout the Middle East, throughout the Arab world, forever transforming the Middle East. When he died there's a problem of succession. Who would succeed the Prophet as the leader of the religion? ### 7:41 seg-0006 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0006` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0006](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0006) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=461s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=461s) The Shia people believe that only people who are the leaders of the religion will succeed. Only the person who can become the leader, of Muhammad's bloodline, can be the leaders of the religion. The Sunni disagreed and said that anyone who proved himself competent and faithful to religion could be the leader. And so for hundreds of years these two groups, the Sunni and the Shia, fought a war over the succession and this led to a bitter rivalry that's lasted to this day okay. Now Now, the majority of people in the world, about 8 % are Sunni, okay? The majority of Muslims in the world are Sunni. 10 % are Shia, okay? So, why this is important is that Saudi Arabia is a Sunni country. And Iran is a Shia country. And at the time of the revolution, Iran dedicated itself, committed itself to spreading the Shia revolution throughout the world, okay? Now, ### 8:55 seg-0007 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0007` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0007](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0007) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=535s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=535s) Saudi Arabia considers itself the leader of the Islamic world, because it is home to both Mecca and Medina, which are the two holiest cities in the entire Islamic religion. As you may know, there's a requirement that, as a, a Muslim, you must take a Hajj, a pilgrimage, to Mecca and Medina once in your lifetime. Okay? And, and because Saudi Arabia controls Mecca and Medina, that's really the source of Saudi Arabia's authority over the Islamic world. Iran says, Iran argued that because Saudi Arabia is ruled by a king, that's anti -Muslim. And because United States is defended by a Muslim, by the U.S. military that's also anti -Muslim. Saudi Arabia is a heresy, okay? So Iran is dedicated itself to subverting Saudi Arabia's authority, okay? So this is all makes sense so far, okay? Now, Saudi Arabia is Sunni, and it practices the most extreme form of Sunni religion called Wahhabism, okay? Wahhabism. In 1744, ### 10:24 seg-0008 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0008` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0008](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0008) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=624s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=624s) the Wahhabis, okay, which again are the most extreme Islamic group, made an alliance with the Al -Assad family of Saudi Arabia. And the agreement was this, that the Wahhabis could, the Wahhabism would become the national religion of Saudi Arabia, and the Wahhabis would swear allegiance to the Al -Assad family, okay? Okay. But in the 1930s, oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia. In fact, Saudi Arabia proved to have the most valuable oil resources in all the world, okay? And at that time, as the world was modernizing, oil was becoming more and more important. And so that made Saudi Arabia extremely wealthy. And as it became more and more wealthy, it tried to become more Western, more secular. More progressive, more modern, which brought it into conflict with the Wahhabis, okay? Now, Wahhabism accounts for 20 to 40 % of all the people in Saudi Arabia. So it is a very significant group. More important, Wahhabi people tend to be extremely fanatical. ### 11:50 seg-0009 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0009` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0009](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0009) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=710s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=710s) So for example, in 1979, the people who laid siege to Saudi Arabia, they were the people who were the most important. The people who laid siege to Mecca were Wahhabis. And Wahhabis were also responsible for terrorist attacks against tourists, against foreigners in Saudi Arabia, okay? So Saudi Arabia has always had this problem with the Wahhabis. And the way that Saudi Arabia has tried to resolve the conflict is to export the religion of Wahhabism throughout the world. And the way that Saudi Arabia has achieved that is by the expansion of the Islamic State. So for example, Osama bin Laden was a Saudi citizen responsible for spreading Wahhabism in Afghanistan. And that's what started Al -Qaeda, okay? So Saudi Arabia was trying to export Wahhabism, Iran is trying to export the Shi 'ite religion, and so they come to the conflict with each other, okay? So the first source of tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia is over religion. ### 12:56 seg-0010 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0010` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0010](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0010) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=776s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=776s) And that's Second is economical, and what that means is that both countries are oil exporters. In fact, Saudi Arabia is completely reliant on oil for its economy. 40 % of Saudi Arabia's economy GDP is based on oil exports. Saudi Arabia is number one oil exporter in the world. 75 % of government revenues comes from its oil exports. In other words, Saudi Arabia does not actually collect taxes from its citizens. It just sells oil. Iran also sells oil. It's the number four oil exporter in the world, but it's less reliant on oil because it has a diversified economy, meaning that it has very strong human capital. It has a very rich economy. It has a well -educated population that does all sorts of different activities. Science, art, education. Saudi Arabia, for the longest time, has been trying to control the price of oil in order to maximize profits. For ### 14:11 seg-0011 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0011` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0011](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0011) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=851s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=851s) example, it wants to cut back production in order to increase the price of oil, which will increase profits. But Iran often doesn't cooperate because Iran is trying to sell as much oil as possible in order to boycott oil. Iran is trying to buy oil in order to boost its economy. So there's economic conflict between these two countries. And the third and final conflict is geopolitical. And geopolitical means that both countries are trying to exert as much influence as possible over the Middle East. Now, Iran is trying to exert influence over the Middle East, because after the revolution in 1979, many countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States, encouraged Iraq to invade Iran. And this invasion, called the Iraq -Iran War, lasted eight years, and it cost the lives of millions of Iranians. And from then on, Iran has adopted a policy of aggressive intervention in the Middle East, in order to distract the United States and Israel. ### 15:31 seg-0012 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0012` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0012](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0012) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=931s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=931s) So for example, in Israel, there are two groups opposing Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah. And they're both financed and supported politically by Iran. And the point of doing this is to distract Israel. Now, Saudi Arabia is trying to exert influence over the Middle East, because as the number one oil exporter, it needs to control shipping lanes. It needs to control this area and this area, the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. And 40 % of all the world's oil passes through these two straits, and they go mainly to East Asia. China, South Korea, and Japan, mainly. So, because of these geopolitical tensions, Iran and Saudi Arabia, have fought three proxy wars, okay? They fought three shadow wars. The first is in Iraq. And now in Iraq, as you know, in 2003, America invaded Iraq and destroyed the country. And after they destroyed the country, there's a power vacuum. And so, basically, Iran came in and tried to take over the country. ### 16:54 seg-0013 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0013` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0013](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0013) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1014s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1014s) And it could do so because two -thirds of the population were Shias. And therefore, they had affinity with Iran. And a third were Sunnis. So, what happened was that to counter the Iranian influence in Iraq, Saudi Arabia started to finance the one -third of the Sunnis against the Shias. So, there was a very violent civil war fought in Iraq after the invasion, okay? Many people also believe that Saudi Arabia is responsible for the financing of the Islamic State, okay? Or ISIS. Because ISIS really hates the Shia religion, okay? But over time, because Iran has been so much more effective in projecting its power than Saudi Arabia, basically, Iran now controls much of Iraq, okay? So, in this first war, Iran defeated Saudi Arabia. Then they fought another war in Syria. Syria's leader, Assad, faced a rebellion. And Saudi Arabia, America, Israel support the rebels against Assad. ### 18:15 seg-0014 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0014` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0014](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0014) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1095s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1095s) And Iran came in to support Assad as well as Russia. And over time, Assad was able to crush the rebellion, okay? So, in the second proxy war, Iran won as well. Now, there's another proxy war in Yemen, okay? And it started in 2016. So, the wars in Iraq and Syria, they were important to Saudi Arabia, but they didn't really threaten Saudi Arabia. But this war in Yemen did threaten Saudi Arabia, okay? So, for the longest time, Saudi Arabia supported the Yemen political leadership. And then there was a rebellion by the Houthis, okay? The Houthis. And the Houthis were Shia villagers who lived in the mountains. And they were trying to overthrow the government. And Saudi Arabia was afraid that the Houthis would become friends with Iran. So, Saudi Arabia launched a massive invasion of Yemen. It was 150,000 Saudi Arabian troops. They had warplanes. They were backed by the most advanced American weapons and technology, okay? ### 19:43 seg-0015 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0015` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0015](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0015) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1183s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1183s) They also had a coalition of about 30 nations, including Egypt and the UAE. Saudi Arabia named this operation Decisive Storm, right? Which sounds like desert storm. And the strategy they used is what we call shock and awe. And shock and awe is basically, we have so many bombs. We have so many airplanes. We have so many soldiers that we can, in about a week's time, destroy you, okay? So, go in. Go fast. Be decisive. Destroy your enemy. Unfortunately, this, for Saudi Arabia, this did not work. And the reason why is, first of all, the Houthis were in the mountains. And so, your bombs didn't really... stop them. In fact, all your bombs did was make them really angry. Because with your bombs, you were killing civilians, okay? So, you're basically uniting the entire population against you. That's the first problem. Second problem is that the Houthis are in the mountains. But Saudi Arabia has oil fields. ### 21:03 seg-0016 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0016` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0016](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0016) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1263s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1263s) And guess what, guys? It's really, really easy to blow up oil fields. Okay? So, that's what the Houthis were doing. They were sending, like, these cheap drones. They might cost $1,000, $10,000. And they would blow up oil fields and ports. Okay? Saudi Arabia has another problem, okay? Saudi Arabia has no fresh water. It's in the desert. It is a desert. No water, guys. No rivers. So, it relies entirely on desalination plants. Okay? And this is extremely impressive technology, right? It takes salt water, seawater, and turns it into fresh water. It's very impressive. But it's on the coast. And guess what, guys? The coast. So, Iran can blow up these plants. And the Houthis can blow up these plants as well. Okay? So, Saudi Arabia basically lost this war. Because the Houthis could inflict massive economic damage on Saudi Arabia. So, from this war, Saudi Arabia learned three things, okay? ### 22:17 seg-0017 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0017` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0017](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0017) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1337s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1337s) The first thing it learned is that if it wants to defeat their enemies, the Houthis, the Syrians, and the Iraqis, they also need to be able to defeat Iran. Okay? That's the first thing they learned. The second thing they learned is that their economy is extremely vulnerable to attack. At any point, Iran, with its missiles and drones, could destroy the entire Saudi Arabian economy. Okay? It can easily blow up all the oil fields and the desalination plants. So, the third thing that Saudi Arabia learned from all this is we really need America to fight Iran for us. In the long term, that's the only way we're going to survive as a nation. Okay? We need to defeat Iran. And we can't do it by ourselves. We need America to do it for us. Okay? Unfortunately for Saudi Arabia, in 2001, 9 -11 happened, right? 15 of the 19 hijackers were citizens of Saudi Arabia. Which meant that America was very unhappy with Saudi Arabia. ### 23:43 seg-0018 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0018` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0018](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0018) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1423s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1423s) Okay? Americans didn't like Saudi Arabia. Americans also knew that there were a lot of human rights abuses in Saudi Arabia. The other thing that happened is in 2003, America invaded Iraq. Saudi Arabia tried to exert as much influence as possible in Washington, D.C. to stop the war. Because they knew that if America invaded Iraq, it would make Iran more powerful. Now, as you know, Saudi Arabia could not stop the war. Okay? In 2008, Barack Obama came into office. And Barack Obama's understanding of the world was that, okay, the Middle East is a complete mess. And it's hopeless. I don't really want to deal with the Middle East. Plus, China is rising. The main threat to our economy, to American power in the future, will be East Asia. So he proposed something called the Asia Pivot, which is to transfer American military resources from the Middle East to East Asia to counter the threat of China. ### 25:02 seg-0019 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0019` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0019](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0019) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1502s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1502s) But to do that, you needed to reduce tensions in the Middle East. And so in 2015, he made a deal with Iran called the Iran Nuclear Deal. And the deal was basically, Obama said to Iran, listen, I know you're trying to develop nuclear weapons. Okay? So what we're going to do is, if you promise to not develop nuclear weapons, we will lift economic sanctions on you so that you can prosper. And Iran said, yes. Okay? And this really scared Saudi Arabia. Because if America leaves the Middle East and brokers a peace with Iran, then Saudi Arabia would be extremely vulnerable. Okay? So Saudi Arabia became very, very desperate. Its very existence was threatened. Also, the economic outlook for Saudi Arabia was not that great. Remember, the entire economy depended on oil. But guess what, guys? Oil is a finite resource. Eventually, you're going to run out of oil. ### 26:20 seg-0020 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0020` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0020](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0020) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1580s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1580s) Okay? Now, if you're optimistic, you'll be like, well, Saudi Arabia would run out of oil in about 70 years' time or 80 years' time. Okay? But there are also some people who believe that Saudi Arabia will run out of oil in about 10 years' time. And if Saudi Arabia has no oil, then its entire economy collapses. Okay? Then you also have a problem with global warming, right? Climate change. You also have a problem with the entire economy because the entire global economy is slowing down. Therefore, the demand for oil is decreasing. So, the economic outlook for Saudi Arabia, it's extremely grim. Okay? And that's why, in 2017, Saudi Arabia appointed a new leader called Mohammed bin Salman. Okay? The crown prince. Whoever calls MBS. And MBS promised to be a new leader for Saudi Arabia. He was young. He was progressive. He wanted women to drive. He wanted young people to go to the movie theater. ### 27:36 seg-0021 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0021` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0021](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0021) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1656s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1656s) Okay? And he proposed a new vision for Saudi Arabia called Vision 2030. Okay? But MBS' most important achievement is that he became friends with the new president, Donald Trump. Okay? So, in 2016, Donald Trump became president of the United States. And MBS decided that this is an opportunity for Saudi Arabia to reset relations, to reset relations with America. Okay? So, Trump, his first trip outside the United States was to Saudi Arabia. That was the first achievement. Second achievement is that Saudi, is that MBS became best friends with Trump's son -in -law, Jared Kushner. Okay? And Jared Kushner was Trump's Middle East advisor. And his job was to bring peace to the Middle East. Mainly, mainly between Israel and the Arab countries. And to that extent, Kushner did a great job because MBS helped him. Okay? So, his major achievement is something called the Abraham Accords. The Abraham Accords is just to establish peace between Israel and the Arab countries so that they can unite against Iran together. ### 29:17 seg-0022 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0022` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0022](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0022) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1757s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1757s) So, MBS was looking very good. But then, in 2018, he did something that scared the world. Okay? MBS had, was a visionary. He had a plan for where to take Saudi Arabia. He wanted to modernize Saudi Arabia. But he was also young. He was a tyrant. He did not like to people who, he did not like people who criticized him. Okay? So, there's a journalist named Jamal Khashoggi who worked for the Washington Post and who was a permanent resident of the United States. He was a Saudi national. And, MBS had him killed. And this caused an international uproar. Okay? The CIA, the US government, conducted an investigation and they determined it was MBS who ordered the assassination. Trump protected MBS. Okay? And then, the most important thing that Trump did was in January 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of a ### 30:30 seg-0023 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0023` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0023](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0023) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1830s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1830s) man named Qassam Soleimani who is considered to be the second most powerful man in Iran after the assassination of Ayatollah, the supreme religious leader of the country. It is Qassam Soleimani who was responsible for Iran's policies in the Iraq war, the Syria war, and in the Yemen war. So, from the perspective of Saudi Arabia, Qassam Soleimani is public enemy number one. He is the greatest threat to Saudi Arabia. Now, before, okay, America had many opportunities to assassinate Qassam Soleimani. George W. Bush had the opportunity, Barack Obama had the opportunity, and both, both believe that doing so would cause basically World War III, okay? Because if you kill the number two leader of Iran, Iran would have no choice but to go to war with you. And that's why they both decided killing Qassam Soleimani. In fact, when Trump made the decision to assassinate Soleimani, the entire military was stunned, okay? They couldn't believe this was happening. ### 31:59 seg-0024 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0024` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0024](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0024) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1919s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1919s) So, how does this happen? Okay, so, for some time, there was some conflict between U.S. soldiers and Shia militiamen in Iraq. And the Pentagon thought it had to act, okay? So, in these situations, they had to go to the President and present options to the President of how best to respond. And usually, the Pentagon will design the choices so that the President does what the Pentagon thinks is best, okay? So, an example is that if I'm in the military and I go to Trump, I give you three choices, okay? The first choice is A, one, let's do nothing. Okay? Two is, what you should do. And three is, let's blow up the world. Okay? So, when I present these three options to you, you, as a President, being wise and strategic, will obviously always pick option two, right? What you should do, what the military suggests you should do, okay? ### 33:14 seg-0025 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0025` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0025](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0025) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1994s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=1994s) Unfortunately, in this instance, Trump chose option three. Let's blow up the world, guys. And so, they assassinated Qasem Soleimani, okay? So, in other words, it is very likely that if Trump stayed a second term, the United States would have gone to war with Iran given how things were progressing, okay? MBS was so happy about all this that he once bragged privately to a friend that, oh, Jared Kushner, Trump's son -in -law, the man responsible for all Middle East policies, well, he's in my pocket, meaning I own him, okay? And the evidence that suggests this is that after Trump left office, after Jared Kushner left office, Jared Kushner set up a private equity fund. And MBS and the Saudi government invested $2 billion into the fund, okay? Does that make sense? So, um, we don't know how, we don't know this for sure, but it seems like Trump is doing exactly what the Saudis want, which is to inflame tensions with Iran, okay? ### 34:54 seg-0026 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-lctucvqhhns@transcript:v1#seg-0026` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0026](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-lctucvqhhns/transcript/#seg-0026) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=2094s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LctUcVqhhns&t=2094s) And, um, this suggests that if in November Trump wins a second term, it is very possible that Trump will declare war on Iran. Or, at the very least, continue to escalate tensions with Iran, okay? Which will very likely lead to World War III. So, in that respect, the election in November, whether or not Trump comes back into office, um, is one of the most consequential elections, okay? Does that make sense, guys? Okay, any questions? Anything you want me to clarify before we end class? Okay. So, what we will do next class is figure out if Trump will win And I will make the argument to you that it is almost very certain, very likely, that he will win in November, okay? So, we will examine why next class.