--- title: "Secret History #2: How Societies Collapse transcript" description: "Source-synced transcript archive for Secret History #2: How Societies Collapse." source_title: "Secret History #2: How Societies Collapse" published_at: "2025-08-22" source_class: "episode" public_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/" markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript.md" text_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript.txt" source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74" data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74.json" --- # Secret History #2: How Societies Collapse transcript - Source: [Secret History #2: How Societies Collapse](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74) - Published: 2025-08-22, day precision - Human transcript page: [/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/) - Episode page: [/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/) - Transcript Markdown: [/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript.md) - Transcript text: [/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript.txt) - Episode JSON: [/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74.json) ## Transcript ### 0:01 seg-0001 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0001` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0001](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0001) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1s) Okay, so let's start class. I'm going to review very quickly what we did last class. So last class, we learned about monotheism, which is the idea of one true God. And as I said last class, this marked an intellectual revolution in human history. And for monotheism, we developed three new ideas, which are money, individual, and the nation state. It's important to note that these ideas have always existed in human history, but with monotheism, these ideas became the dominant paradigms. And together, they will give us modernity and create the world that we live in. Okay, so that's what we discussed last class. And remember, last class, we also discussed that this created a lot of problems for us. There are a lot of benefits, but there are also a lot of consequences. Okay, so we're going to continue the story of humanity today. And today, I want to focus on a very specific question. Why do societies rise, and why do they fall? ### 1:35 seg-0002 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0002` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0002](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0002) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=95s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=95s) Okay? And I know that these first few classes may seem abstract and theoretical, but that's because we're developing the ethical models in order to better understand our world. So as we move on, we'll start looking at very concrete examples. But for the first few classes, please be patient. We are going to develop a theory to understand the world. All right? So let's discuss... So let's discuss societies, why they rise, and why they decline. Now, unfortunately, we live in a world in decline. So there are lots of signs that the world is in decline. What are these signs? Shout out some signs. Yeah, very good. Okay? So you have conflict and wars. You look... Look at the situation in Ukraine, look at the situation in the Middle East, but also, you may have seen the news, and you have seen conflicts arising in Southeast Asia, Thailand, Myanmar. Also, Trump is about to send U.S. ### 2:57 seg-0003 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0003` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0003](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0003) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=177s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=177s) troops to Mexico and Venezuela, okay? So we live in a world of conflict, and that tells us that the world is in decline. What are some other signs? Good. Yes. So you have climate change, okay? We are putting too much pressure on the environment, so the air, the water, the land is becoming much more toxic. Okay? Good. What else? Good. Yes. Unemployment is going up. Well, not only that, but people's attitude towards work is declining. We live in an age when people don't take work that seriously. Okay? People are not as enthusiastic, they're not as motivated to work hard as before. We call this, in China, the Bailan age, right? The age of Bailan, meaning let it rot. Like who cares? Don't take things too seriously. In America, the term is called quite quitting, okay? You pretend to work, but you're not really working. What are some other signs? ### 4:16 seg-0004 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0004` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0004](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0004) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=256s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=256s) So also, you have lower birth rate. Okay? And this is a very important sign, right? Because if you think about it, if young people refuse to get married and have babies, eventually the world is going to die off, right? So this is actually a very important sign that the world is in decline. And we're seeing this happen throughout the entire world in all societies. The only exception is Israel and Georgia. But these are very small realities. Bare cases. For most societies, there's rapid decline in birth rate. What are some other signs? You see a lower standard of living. And all this means is that inflation, right? So people make less money, and they can afford less. Prices go up, but people's wages go down. So that's another sign of decline. Okay? What are some other signs? Okay. You also see higher stress, right? Higher stress. People feel more anxious. People feel more depressed. People feel more stressed. ### 5:45 seg-0005 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0005` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0005](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0005) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=345s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=345s) Emotionally, they feel drained. Okay? What else? Okay. People are less optimistic, right? Okay. Greater pessimism. ### 6:04 seg-0006 - Speaker: UNKNOWN - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0006` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0006](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0006) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=364s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=364s) Okay? ### 6:04 seg-0007 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0007` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0007](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0007) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=364s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=364s) Also, and this is really important, is the idea of debt. Right? Both public and private. There are lots of governments around the world that are facing a fiscal crisis. A fiscal crisis just means that they spend more than they take in in tax revenue. There are many families in China, in the United States, throughout the world that are heavily in debt. Okay? So debt is a huge issue for the world today. Okay? So lower cohesion and trust. And what this means is that people no longer trust each other as they did before. Society is less cohesive. If you see, if you walk on the street and you see a man on the street bleeding or hurt, you're less likely to help him. And this is very true not only in China. But also elsewhere as well. So lower trust issues. What are some other signs? Okay. Greater disease. Yeah. Okay. Increase in disease. People are less healthy than before. ### 7:32 seg-0008 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0008` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0008](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0008) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=452s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=452s) People are more stressed than before. People are less optimistic. So we can go on and on and on because the signs of rapid social decline are too many. Now. This is a. These are signs of decline. Well, if we look at rise, then obviously it's the opposite, right? People are much more willing to trust each other rather than going to debt. People will save money. People are healthier. People are much more optimistic. People people are having lots and lots of babies, right? People are employed. Okay. So. These are all signs. These are signs that society is in decline. The rise. It's the opposite. Also. Another sign of decline that's very important that doesn't really happen in China. What happens in the Western world is immigration. Okay. Immigration. Immigration is a huge issue in the Western world. And we will discuss immigration in future classes. But immigration is a sign of decline. ### 8:55 seg-0009 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0009` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0009](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0009) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=535s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=535s) Because it reduces. Okay. Cohesion. Okay. And it also reduces the standard of living. Okay. Another sign of decline is also housing prices go up. So people can no longer afford to buy a house. This is true in China. Young people can no longer afford to buy a house. But it's also true throughout the world. Okay. It's really hard for young people. To. To. Get. By. Okay. All right. Um. Also fiscal crisis. Right. We talked about this. But the idea of fiscal crisis is the government cannot afford a lot of public expenditures. In the future, maybe five, ten years from now, pension will be a huge problem for governments. Okay. So these are all signs of rapid decline. All right. Now having done this. What I'm going to do now is go over some theories as to why this is happening. Why is the world in decline? Okay. And there are lots and lots of theories. ### 10:13 seg-0010 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0010` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0010](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0010) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=613s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=613s) But I will present three theories to you that I think are interesting. Okay. The first is the idea of financialization. And this theory. Um. Is proposed by an economist. A French economist named Thomas Piketty. Piketty. Okay. And he wrote a book called Capital in the 21st Century. It is a fantastic book. You don't have to read the book. But if you have a chance, you should definitely pick it up. Because it is a very easy but very illuminating read. And what he argues is that. What happens in society is that capitalism transitions from face to face to face. In the beginning, you have consumer capitalism. Meaning that what the society is trying to do is create goods that consumers want to buy. This is an era of rapid wealth generation. Then you move into financial capitalism. Which is a period of investment. Rather than build factories. You put the money into the stock market. Okay. ### 11:48 seg-0011 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0011` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0011](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0011) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=708s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=708s) So you're trying to generate as much money as possible. But what we discussed last class that's very important is. Wealth and money are not the same thing. So in the first phase, consumer capitalism. You focus on the generation of wealth. In financial capitalism. You focus on the generation of money. And then you move on to monopoly capitalism. Which is where just a few companies control everything. And we live in an era of monopoly capitalism. And this happens because it is much more profitable for companies to be monopolies. Than to be in competition with each other. Financial capitalism is looking to create as much money as possible. Not as much wealth. And so a few companies come to dominate. Become monopolies. And that's the age we live in today. Okay. Now why is this important? It's important because when we make this transition. People are no longer focused on working hard. They're only focused on speculating. ### 13:05 seg-0012 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0012` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0012](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0012) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=785s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=785s) All right. So let me give you an example. Let's just say I'm an entrepreneur. And I want to make as much money as possible. Well, what I do is I build a factory. When I build a factory, I'm creating real wealth. Because a factory requires you to hire workers. It requires you to build technology. It requires you to build goods that people want to buy. But after I build a factory and I make a lot of money. I want to take this money and let it grow as fast as possible. So I put it in a stock market. Okay. And that's just how people behave. The problem is that if too many people do that. Then no one's really working. No one's creating real wealth in the economy. The other problem is that because of the way capitalism is set up. If everyone's putting the money in a stock market. The stock market grows too fast. ### 14:09 seg-0013 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0013` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0013](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0013) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=849s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=849s) And the real economy does not grow that fast. Okay. And the difference is stark. Thomas Piketty spent a lot of time going over income tax. Just looking at how much tax people paid. He did a lot of statistical analysis. And what he discovered is the real economy in late -stage capitalism will grow about 2%. The financial economy will grow at 5%. Okay. And this is really key. What this is telling us is that if you have a million dollars. You could choose to go and open a restaurant. Or you could choose to invest in the stock market. If you open a restaurant. You will make at most $20,000 a year. But if you were to put it in the stock market. You would make $50,000 a year. So everyone's going to put all the money in the stock market. Which allows for the stock market to increase. But the real economy is not improving. ### 15:13 seg-0014 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0014` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0014](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0014) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=913s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=913s) And therefore you have all these issues arise. Greater unemployment. Greater debt. No one's really working. Okay. So that's the idea of financialization. And what Piketty argues is that this is just a natural cycle. This is just a natural byproduct of capitalism. We live in a state. We live in an age of capitalism. Late stage capitalism. Is this clear to you guys? Any questions before I move on to the second theory? Let's move on to the second theory called elite overproduction. And this was proposed by a historian named Peter Turchin. And Peter Turchin spent decades looking at why societies rise and fall. He looked at the Roman Empire. He looked at the French Revolution. He looked at many different examples. And what he believed is societies fall, decline, collapse because of the idea of elite overproduction. Meaning you have too many powerful people competing for limited positions of power. Alright. So to understand this, I'm going to talk about another experiment called rat utopia. ### 16:48 seg-0015 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0015` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0015](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0015) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1008s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1008s) And rat utopia was a series of experiments conducted by an American scientist named James B. Calhoun. And what James Calhoun was trying to do in this experiment was trying to figure out what living in a world of abundance and wealth and security meant. After World War II, the world was divided between the United States and the Soviet Union. It was the Cold War. But it was also a time of increasing abundance due to technology and peace. And the population was increasing. So James Calhoun conducted these experiments to figure out what this meant for the world. So what he did was this. He had a room, okay, that was sealed off from the world. And in the room, he put in food and water and housing. For a colony of rats. Maybe like 10 rats at first. But they quickly became 400, 500 rats. And at first, the rats were really happy. ### 18:04 seg-0016 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0016` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0016](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0016) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1084s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1084s) But no matter how Calhoun configured the experiment, ultimately, the rats always ended up killing each other. Okay. So what he discovered is. If you live in a world of abundance and security, the end result is the rats always kill each other. And he kept on doing this for 20 years. And he could never, ever create a situation in which the rats lived peacefully. And he could never figure out why this was the case. And even today, there's a huge debate as to why this is the case. But he had a theory, okay. And the theory is this. The rats were not competing for food. They were really competing for status. All right. So let's think about this, okay. In a state of nature, in the real world, rats compete each other for mating rights, right? So you see a beautiful rat and you fight over her, right? ### 19:22 seg-0017 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0017` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0017](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0017) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1162s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1162s) The rat who wins out is now the alpha male. And the alpha male can have as many female companions as he wants, okay. And what do the other rats do? In nature, what will the other rats do? Well, the other rats will probably run away, go somewhere else, and find other female companions, right? Because everyone's trying to be the alpha male. But what's the problem with James Calhoun's experiment? Why do they fight each other? There's no place for them to go. They're stuck where they are. You understand? So status is what we call a zero -sum game. I win, you lose, okay? There can only be one winner. But in nature, if I win, then the other rats run away and try to figure out, try to build their own colony. But in James Calhoun's experiment, there's no place for them to go. And so all that happens is they keep on fighting each other until they die. ### 20:41 seg-0018 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0018` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0018](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0018) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1241s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1241s) Okay? And that's the idea of elite overproduction. And that's what Peter Turchin says. The elite, the children of the elite, are always fighting for positions of power. Not normal people, it's the children of the elite. But eventually, they have too many children, and there are not enough positions of power, okay? Another way of saying this is that in China today, there are too many graduates of Peking University, Beida, and Tsinghua University. Tsinghua, right? They want to be the big boss. They want to have the power. But there's too many of them. Okay? And there's no place for them to go. And that leads to conflict in society. And ultimately, what Peter Turchin has discovered is, if that's the case, then elite overproduction will ultimately lead to either war or revolution. It will lead to the collapse of society. And there's no way around this. Okay? That's Peter Turchin. Now, I want to go to the third theory. ### 21:54 seg-0019 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0019` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0019](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0019) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1314s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1314s) And the third theory is the idea of a civilizational life cycle. And this is proposed by a German philosopher, scholar, named Oswald Spangler. And what he argues is that society, culture, civilization, is no different from a person. As a person, as a human being, we go through a life cycle. We are born, we grow up, we mature, then we die. Right? And there's no way around this. We all have limited life cycles. You can live to 100, you can live to 150, but eventually you'll die. And what Oswald Spangler says is, that happens in society as well. And there's nothing anyone can do about this. So let's go over the life cycle first. For civilization, okay? In the beginning, you are in the village. Then you move to the town. Then you move to the city. Then you develop the megacity. Okay? Not all civilizations will go through the cycle. But the successful ones will go through the cycle. ### 23:22 seg-0020 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0020` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0020](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0020) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1402s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1402s) Okay? You start off, so the Romans, right? The Qing Dynasty. You start off in a village. Then, if you're successful in the village, you build a town. Then, when you're in a town, and you're successful, you defeat other towns and you build a city, and you become a megacity. Okay? And what Oswald Spangler says is, at the height of the civilization, the civilization must now die. Okay? So, let's go over the theory. Well, in the village, life is pretty simple. People work hard. Okay? They are united. They have a collective mentality. Everyone's helping each other. And also, what's really important is lots of babies. Right? It's very common for mothers to give birth to 10, 11 kids in a village. Right? And the reason why is kids are free labor. So, you're incentivized to have as many children as possible. Okay. So, this is the framework of a village. ### 24:38 seg-0021 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0021` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0021](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0021) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1478s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1478s) But as you go up the civilization ladder, as you mature as a civilization, what happens is you have increased abstraction. Abstraction is just a fancy word for you're removed from reality. Okay? So, when you're in a village, you understand everything, right? You understand, oh, the food that I eat comes from the seeds I implant. Right? But when you're in a city, guess what? Those drinks you're drinking, you have no idea where it comes from. Right? The food you're eating, you have no idea where it comes from. It's all abstract to you. It's all removed from reality. Okay? So, in the village, people are engaged in working hard and in helping each other. But as you move up, people become much more individualistic. Right? You're concerned about your own personal pleasure. You're concerned about how do I derive benefit from this. Okay? So, another way of saying this is in a village, what keeps people together are emotions and tradition and relationships. ### 25:58 seg-0022 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0022` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0022](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0022) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1558s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1558s) But when you move to a megacity, what is it that holds people together? It's money. Right? Money is the greatest abstraction. The problem with money is that, it means we don't have to ever trust each other. In a village, if you get sick, everyone comes and helps you. Right? But in the city, if you get sick, you go to the hospital and pay the doctor. Your neighbors don't have to care. Your family doesn't have to help you. Okay? So, you become individualized. You become atomized. Okay? And in the megacity, what happens is, because you are concerned only about your own individual pleasure, you don't work hard anymore. In fact, what you want to do is, you want immigrants to work for you. Right? You no longer care about other people. All you care about is yourself. And guess what, guys? You don't want to have any children. Okay? ### 27:10 seg-0023 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0023` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0023](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0023) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1630s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1630s) And that's why the megacity represents the death of civilization. And what is Beijing? What is Shanghai? What is Washington D.C.? What is New York? What is Paris? What is London? They're all megacities. Okay? And that's why we have these trends. And what Oswald Spengler says is, there's nothing anyone can do about this. It is a natural life cycle. All right? So, these are the three major theories I want you guys to remember. Okay? Okay? Sorry. Can you give the microphone? Yeah. Can you just speak to the microphone? ### 27:52 seg-0024 - Speaker: SPEAKER_02 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0024` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0024](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0024) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1672s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1672s) But what if there is a universal target that force everyone needs to work together? You know, will that work out to, like, everyone just put down all of these problems and, you know, figure out the... ### 28:16 seg-0025 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0025` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0025](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0025) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1696s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1696s) Yeah. Okay. I understand. That is a great question. Okay? So, the question, to rephrase it, okay, is, yeah, but what if there's an external threat? Okay? An external threat. If there's an external threat, then surely this system, this life cycle can be extended. Right? And external threats are examples of, hey, let's say there's an alien invasion. Let's just say China's being attacked by the United States. Right? And, unfortunately, the answer is it does not matter because once you've reached the point of a megacity, first of all, you're so selfish, you're self -absorbed, you are not aware of external threats. The other issue is you're no longer capable of working together because you don't trust each other. Okay? So, the external threats factor doesn't really matter. But that's a great question. Thank you for asking. Okay? Yes. In theory, oh my God, if aliens come, then humans would unite. No, that's not what would happen. Okay? ### 29:35 seg-0026 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0026` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0026](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0026) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1775s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1775s) What would happen is certain factions of humans would try to align the aliens to conquer everyone else. All right? All right. So, having gone through these three theories, what I'm going to do is combine them together to create a comprehensive, holistic, broad theory of why society is wrong. Okay? All right. And the problem with theories is they are simplistic and inaccurate and imprecise. So, I warn you that this theory has limitations. But for our purposes, what we want to do is have a working framework. And then when we apply this framework to concrete examples, we can better refine this framework. Okay? All right? So, I warn you that this framework, there are a lot of problems with it. But it is a useful tool for us to analyze society in the past. Okay? All right. So, I'm going to make generalizations about how society is structured. So, at the core of society, the very powerful people, these are certain families. ### 30:53 seg-0027 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0027` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0027](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0027) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1853s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1853s) Okay? These are the founding families of this nation. And there's not that many of them. Maybe 10. Maybe 100. Okay? But at most, 100. So, if you go back to the Roman Empire, and the Roman Empire controlled most of Europe, as well as Anatolia, Egypt. It was a huge area. But really, there were only about 200 families that controlled the Roman Empire. Okay? All right. So, how these families express power, how they control power in society is through three mechanisms. Okay? Three pillars of power. And these three pillars are finance. Okay? Finance, we talked about last class. It's just central banking. All right? Second pillar is religion. Religion is just what people believe, how to control what people believe. Now, the religion of today is science and technology. And the third pillar is intelligence or spies. All right? Now, for the purpose to save time, I'm not going to go too deeply into intelligence and religion. ### 32:16 seg-0028 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0028` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0028](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0028) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1936s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=1936s) But I will in future classes. Okay? I just need you to remember that there are three pillars of power at the core of society. Finance, intelligence, and religion. And it's their nexus, their combination that allows the elite to control everyone else. Okay? So, from this nexus. Okay? They will control all aspects of society, including schools, including the military, including government, including the media, including culture, including crime, the mafia. Okay? Every aspect of society that you can imagine is being controlled in some respect by this nexus of power. Okay? Also, you have like corporations. Right? And then at the outer edge are the people. Okay? The people, because they're so massive, the massive people, they're the ones who generate wealth for society. So, this system is designed to create as much energy as possible for the people. Okay? Energy. Energy. Energy. Because the harder the people work, the more wealth is generated in society. ### 33:46 seg-0029 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0029` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0029](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0029) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2026s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2026s) All right? So, a metaphor that we use is this. Think of society as a corporation. The people are the workers. Right? They're the ones who do the real work. The elite, these families, are the owners. And these people in between, the middle class, are the managers. Okay? So, again, this is a very simple metaphor, and it's not accurate, but it's useful for analysis. Okay? So, the families are the owners of the corporation. The people are the workers. The people in between, the managers are the managers. And we call these people the middle class. There have been other names for it in China before in history. We call them the scholar officials. Right? Another name for them is something called the professional manager. Professional managerial class, PMC. Also, another name for them is the petty bourgeoisie. Okay? Again, you don't need to know these names. For the purpose of simplicity, we will just call them the middle class. ### 35:00 seg-0030 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0030` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0030](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0030) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2100s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2100s) All right. Does that make sense? Okay. So, having gone through the structure of society, let's talk about what happens when society rises and falls. Okay? When it rises, the dynamic of these three groups, it's very interesting. When it rises, the families who own the nation are happy to let the managers control society. And this is what we call democracy. Right? And the managers are always providing feedback to the families and saying, we should treat workers better. If we treat workers better, then they will work harder. Okay? And at this point, things are great. The people feel that they're good. That they have a voice in the system. They're making good money. Everyone's really happy. But what happens because of elite overproduction is these families produce too many children who want pictures of power. Basically, they want to spend money from the corporation. And now the corporation is in trouble. ### 36:11 seg-0031 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0031` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0031](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0031) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2171s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2171s) It's in debt. Okay? So, at this point, what happens is this. You would think the managers would save the families. Listen, guys. We need to be more fair to the people. But what really happens in reality is the managers exploit the people. Okay? The managers will now deceive. They will lie to the people. They will commit fraud. They will exploit the people. Why? The reason why is this. What the managers really do is something called rent seeking business. Rent seeking behavior. Okay? Rent seeking behavior just means they have a certain power that they want to exploit in order to extract wealth from other people. So, for example, the more classic example is you own an apartment in Beijing, right? So, you rent it out to someone who needs to live in Beijing. You collect rent. Well, this is true for a lot of people. So, if you are a lawyer, you collect rent because only you can pay rent. ### 37:25 seg-0032 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0032` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0032](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0032) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2245s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2245s) You can work in the court system. So, if you want to sue someone or if you have a contract dispute, you have to go to a lawyer. Okay? The lawyer is collecting rent. And that's what the middle class, the professional managerial class do. They are rent seekers. Okay? Another way of saying this is, guys, if you go to a company, you know what the workers do, right? Do you know what the managers do? They really don't do that much. Okay? And this is true for the middle class. Like, the managers, the middle class, live very nice lives. And so, when the company is in trouble, the managers are like, well, I have a very nice life. I have a very nice job. But I really don't do anything. So, I'll probably be the first to get fired. So, they have to show their worth. They have to prove their worth. And therefore, they exploit the workers. ### 38:19 seg-0033 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0033` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0033](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0033) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2299s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2299s) Okay? Do you understand? They push the workers harder to generate more wealth. All right? So, in the decline phase, this is not really a problem. But what happens over time is the conflict within the elite gets worse and worse. Elite overproduction. And what will eventually happen is they will form into factions that compete against each other for power. Okay? And when that happens, then society becomes aligned into factions. The factions will bring in certain elements of the middle class, which will then bring in certain elements of the people. And now, what happens is civil war or revolution. And this marks the collapse of society. What's really important for us to remember is this is a natural cycle. And no amount of external threat will change that dynamic. Why? Because it's very common for these factions to align with mercenaries. Okay? So, there's foreign invasions, not because some guy overseas is like, oh, this society is unstable. ### 39:41 seg-0034 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0034` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0034](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0034) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2381s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2381s) I'll come and invade. What happens often is a certain faction invites mercenaries into the nation as part of the power struggle. And then the mercenaries realize, you know what? We can stick this for ourselves. All right? So, when you reach the collapse phase, the society is much too insular, much too wracked with infighting to care about external threats. And that's why if there's an alien invasion, it really wouldn't change anything. Okay? All right? Is this clear to you guys? Yes. So, again, this is the model we're working with to explain the rise and fall of societies. At first, in this system, the elite families are willing to let the middle class incentivize and motivate the workers to do their best. And you do that through democracy, through openness, through meritocracy. Through innovation. But over time, as these elite families have more and more children, and these children are engaged in rent -seeking behavior, they basically want to steal profits from the corporation. ### 40:52 seg-0035 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0035` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0035](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0035) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2452s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2452s) The corporation runs into trouble, and the managers are forced to coerce the people, which leads to greater conflict. And eventually, over time, the collapse happens when society breaks up into different factions, which leads to civil war or revolution or war. So, that's the model we're working with. All right. Any questions? Are you guys clear about this? ### 41:17 seg-0036 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0036` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0036](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0036) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2477s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2477s) Yeah? What if they just don't have that much children? ### 41:26 seg-0037 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0037` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0037](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0037) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2486s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2486s) Excuse me? What was the question? ### 41:29 seg-0038 - Speaker: SPEAKER_00 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0038` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0038](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0038) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2489s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2489s) What if the elite families don't have that much children? Will this model still work? ### 41:36 seg-0039 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0039` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0039](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0039) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2496s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2496s) Oh, that's a great question. Okay. So, what if families don't have that many children? Okay. That's a really interesting question. And the answer is these families, first and foremost, want to have as many children as possible, right? Because how do you pass on your power? So, maybe the middle class don't want to have that many children, but the elite will have a lot of children, because they need to be able to pass on their power and privilege to their children. In fact, the elite is first and foremost concerned with passing on their privilege to the next generation. Okay? And that's why these families expand so fast. And also, who wants to marry into elite families? Who wants to marry into them? Everyone. All right? And they have to marry into other families in order to maintain their power. Okay? So, having children in a marriage is a way for the elite to maintain their power. ### 42:45 seg-0040 - Speaker: UNKNOWN - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0040` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0040](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0040) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2565s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2565s) Okay? ### 42:45 seg-0041 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0041` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0041](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0041) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2565s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2565s) But that's a good question. Any more questions before I continue? Okay. So, let us summarize what we've learned so far. And discuss what is it that allows societies to rise and fall. So, we'll look at three phases. The rise, the decline, and the collapse. Okay? So, when I mean decline, I don't mean like things are getting worse. I mean things aren't improving. Okay? So, rise is when things get better. Decline is when things are stagnant or getting slightly worse. Collapse is when the society is about to fall apart. Okay? So, if you look at these three particular phases of society, there are different characteristics. When society rises, it is first and foremost open. Open just means that you have opportunities for social mobility in the society. If you're a poor person, you can make money. You can become wealthy. Your talent is appreciated. It's a meritocracy. It's innovative. If you criticize society, people are like, thank you for criticizing us. ### 44:01 seg-0042 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0042` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0042](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0042) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2641s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2641s) That's because criticism makes us better people. Okay? There's open debate. Now, what's really interesting is most young societies are open societies. Okay? So, for example, in 1950s, America was a democracy, right? China was communist. But, this is really interesting, in 1950s, they were both open societies. You could criticize leaders. In fact, you were encouraged to criticize leaders. China was as democratic back then as the United States. Okay? So, it's not about political systems. It's just about what state you are in social development. So, if you're young, you're going to be open. You're going to be democratic. You're going to be meritocratic. You want to learn, so you will listen to criticism. Okay? That's the first great characteristic of a society on the rise. It's openness. But, when you reach a decline phase. Guess what? Society becomes bureaucratic. ### 45:08 seg-0043 - Speaker: UNKNOWN - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0043` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0043](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0043) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2708s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2708s) Okay? ### 45:09 seg-0044 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0044` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0044](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0044) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2709s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2709s) Bureaucratic. Why? Because, if we go back to this model, as the company loses more and more money, the managerial class is concerned with maintaining their jobs. So, they become bureaucrats. Okay? They have to prove their worth. So, they create a lot of paperwork. They make everyone follow the rules. Society becomes more and more bureaucratic. Then, in the collapse phase, society becomes authoritarian. Okay? Before, decline is all following the rules. Now, it's just rule by force. But, there's another way of saying this. In the rise phase, what matters is the consent. Okay? So, these three groups. The elite, the middle class, and the people, they're all working together to improve society. There's consent. But, when you hit the decline phase. Now, it's their deception. And then, when you hit the collapse phase, it's coercion. So, let me give you an example. Let's just say we are in the rise phase. Right? Well, we want to go to lunch. ### 46:30 seg-0045 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0045` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0045](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0045) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2790s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2790s) So, we discuss where we go to lunch. I want to go to McDonald's. But, you guys want to go to Pizza Hut or KFC. We have a debate. And then, eventually, we vote. And whoever wants to go, the majority wins. Okay? That's the consent phase. When we hit the decline phase, the consent phase. When we hit the deception, I'm the teacher. So, I say to you, hey guys, let's go to McDonald's because Wong Fei will be there. Or Jack Ma will be there. Or it's free hamburgers today. Okay? I'm lying to you to get what I want. And then, in the collapse phase is, I say to you, I'm the teacher and I will beat you up if you don't listen to me. ### 47:10 seg-0046 - Speaker: UNKNOWN - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0046` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0046](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0046) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2830s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2830s) Okay? ### 47:15 seg-0047 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0047` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0047](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0047) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2835s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2835s) So, in the rise phase, what matters first and foremost is unity of the people. We're all working together. There's empathy. There's concern for other people. I want to be your friend. We need to work together to make society better. Okay? But, in the decline phase, it's really about stability. It's about making sure that society maintains a status quo. Okay? When we reach the collapse phase, it is survival. Screw you. I want to live. And if I have to kill you, I'll kill you. All right? So, this is a map that shows us. This is what happens when society rises, declines, and collapses. Now, what's really interesting about this is the timing. Okay? So, if you actually look at society's timeline, it goes like this. Okay? There's a steep rise. The decline is slow. And the collapse is sudden. So, people think, oh, decline, you know, things get worse, worse. But, you know, we follow this trend. ### 48:34 seg-0048 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0048` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0048](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0048) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2914s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2914s) We'll still be here. But, actually, the collapse happens really fast. Why? The reason why is this system cannot survive external shocks. So, external shocks is a perfect storm of crises. So, another way of saying this is maybe society prepares for, okay, if there's a plague, we'll do this. If there's a climate crisis, we'll do this. If there's a drought, we'll do this. If there's a war, we'll do this. Okay? What society is not prepared for is these things happening all at once. The plague, the drought, war, the revolution, they all happen at once. It's a perfect storm. And that's what leads to the collapse because society is not prepared for this. Okay? And why is society not prepared for this? Because when you hit the authoritarian phase, you're not allowed to criticize the system anymore. The problem are those who speak out. The problem is those who speak out. Those who point out the problems of society. ### 49:45 seg-0049 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0049` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0049](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0049) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2985s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=2985s) In the rise phase, those who criticize society are the heroes. They are appreciated. They are rewarded. In the collapse phase, those who speak out are the enemies of society. And therefore, society cannot be prepared for any external threats, which leads to its collapse. Any questions? Okay. So, this is the ethical model that we're working with. And again, we're going to apply it to the present. And then we're going to apply it to the past. Okay? So, with this ethical model, what we can do is make certain predictions about the future. So, I will make these predictions. And I expect these things to happen in the next 5 to 10 years. 5 to 10 years. Or 10 to 20 years. Okay. I don't know the time frame. Okay? But I expect these things to happen. Okay? The first thing that's going to happen in the Western world is decline of democracy and freedom. ### 51:03 seg-0050 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0050` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0050](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0050) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3063s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3063s) So, remember, in the rise phase, society is democratic and open and meritocratic. But as you move on, it becomes more bureaucratic and ultimately authoritarian. Okay? So, we will see the United States, Europe become much more authoritarian. You will see a collapse of democracy and freedom in these nations. And already, we're seeing this happen in the United States, where Trump is using more and more military to resolve issues. Right? So, that's the first prediction. And this is going to happen throughout the Western world. Second thing is economic collapse. So, as people have less and less right to speak up, they feel less invested in the system. They're less willing to work. Therefore, you have economic collapse. People don't believe in the system anymore. Okay? The system is in crisis. This will lead to immigration. The government is like, you know what? If the people don't want to work, screw them. Let's bring in immigrants to do the work. ### 52:14 seg-0051 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0051` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0051](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0051) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3134s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3134s) Okay? Let's replace our population. But the people are not going to sit back and take it. Right? This leads to civil war. People are not going to meet each other on the streets. And the government is like, you know what? If we continue to let them fight, eventually, they're going to come after us. So, what we'll do is send them off to these stupid, pointless wars overseas. Okay? So, now you have stupid wars. Stupid foreign wars. And these are my five predictions for the world for the next 5, 10, 20 years. Okay? Europe and America will see less freedom and democracy. They're going to collapse, increase immigration, civil conflict, and then ultimately stupid foreign wars. And I'm not saying this happens in a sequence. I'm saying you'll see all five things. Okay? But they may happen in different order. Any questions? Was this clear to you guys? Yeah. Thank you. ### 53:31 seg-0052 - Speaker: SPEAKER_02 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0052` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0052](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0052) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3211s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3211s) Is there any chance that the government tries to use a war to distract the people? Like, they're trying to hide all of the collapse of the society and their country? ### 53:48 seg-0053 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0053` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0053](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0053) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3228s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3228s) Yeah. Yeah. That's a great question. And the answer is, that's what wars are for. It's to distract the people. Right? Because if you don't distract the people, they'll come and revolt against you. So, you either send them to a war or you could have a French Revolution on your hands. Right? That's your option. War or revolution? I think war is the better option. That's why we're heading into a world at war. Okay. No. No. I'm saying, like, if you don't send the people to war, they will revolt against you. So, you send them off to war to distract them, to get rid of them. Okay. There's no right and wrong here. Okay, guys? Okay. All right. Okay. Okay. I apologize. Okay. But one thing that you will learn in my class is, there's no right and wrong. There's no logic. Okay? It's not like, it is immoral to send people to war. I know that. ### 54:44 seg-0054 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0054` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0054](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0054) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3284s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3284s) Thank you very much. Okay. But I'm trying to explain to you how power works. That's the theme of this course. I'm trying to explain to you how people in power think and behave. All right? And, again, I keep on saying this. I don't know if I'm right. But what I'm doing is, I'm presenting a theory, a model that we can use. To make predictions. And if these predictions work out, if it actually happens, then a model, there's some accuracy to our model. Okay? We'll have to refine our model, but there's some accuracy to it. But hey, hey, if tomorrow, Trump, Putin, Xi, all get together and says, let's be best friends, then I'm wrong. Right? Okay? So, that's what we're trying to do in this class. We're not trying to argue what is right, what is wrong, what is just. Because, quite honestly, it doesn't matter. All right? Morality doesn't matter here. It's about power. ### 55:43 seg-0055 - Speaker: SPEAKER_01 - Source ref: `video:predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74@transcript:v1#seg-0055` - Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0055](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-k-l9jbgo74/transcript/#seg-0055) - Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3343s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-_l9jBGo74&t=3343s) We're trying to understand how the world works. And when we do, and if we do that, then maybe we can work together and build a more just world. But first, we need to figure out how the world really, really works. Okay? Any more questions? Okay. Great, guys. So, we will continue this story next class. I'll see you guys next class.