---
title: "Geo-Strategy #9:  Putin's War for the Soul of Russia transcript"
description: "Source-synced transcript archive for Geo-Strategy #9: Putin's War for the Soul of Russia."
source_title: "Geo-Strategy #9:  Putin's War for the Soul of Russia"
published_at: "2024-05-31"
source_class: "episode"
public_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/"
markdown_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript.md"
text_url: "https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript.txt"
source_url: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k"
data_url: "https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k.json"
---

# Geo-Strategy #9:  Putin's War for the Soul of Russia transcript

- Source: [Geo-Strategy #9:  Putin's War for the Soul of Russia](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k)
- Published: 2024-05-31, day precision
- Human transcript page: [/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/)
- Episode page: [/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/)
- Transcript Markdown: [/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript.md](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript.md)
- Transcript text: [/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript.txt](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript.txt)
- Episode JSON: [/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k.json](https://jianglens.com/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k.json)

## Transcript

### 0:00 seg-0001

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0001`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0001](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0001)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=0s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=0s)

So, this week, Vladimir Putin, in a speech, said to his Russian people that all of Russia must now prepare for total war. Even if you are not fighting on the front lines in Ukraine, pretend you are. And because of this speech, there are many analysts who believe that Putin is preparing Russia for total war. And total war means that every aspect of your society is geared towards winning a war. And so we last had total war in World War II, okay? But not after that. So why is Putin doing this? Now, there are some people who believe that... It's because Russia is not doing so well in Ukraine. They lack manpower, and so they need to mobilize their society to fully win the war in Ukraine. Okay? Another explanation is that Putin knows that NATO is preparing to send reinforcements to Ukraine. Remember that because of last summer's offensive. Ukraine is desperately short of manpower, okay?

### 1:26 seg-0002

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0002`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0002](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0002)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=86s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=86s)

The average age of their soldiers right now is over 40. They have men in their 60s who are fighting in the front lines. Emmanuel Macron of France has publicly stated that he is considering sending French troops to Ukraine. The British themselves are thinking of conscription, drafting all young men into the army. The American people are thinking of conscription. The Americans, American politicians have said that they're considering a new law that would give citizenship to illegal immigrants who join the army, okay? So it seems like NATO is only going to escalate the war in Ukraine. And so Russia is preparing for that. One more explanation, one more possibility is that Putin wants to expand the war, okay? So he knows he's winning in Ukraine. And he's thinking about attacking Moldova. Okay? And possibly the Baltic states, okay? These are all possibilities. Today, this morning, what I want to do is argue another possibility, which is

### 2:35 seg-0003

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0003`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0003](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0003)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=155s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=155s)

that Putin is mobilizing his society because he sees war as a tool, as a mechanism to radically reshape the people in Russia. Okay? So think of a metaphor, okay? You're fat and you're like, okay, how do I get fit? How do I get trim? Right? You go to the gym and you work out. And for Putin, that's what war is. War is a workout for society. When you enter war, you become a much more disciplined, unified, and prosperous society. Okay? So that's what I want to argue today. Okay. So why does Putin think like this? Well. Let's look at the current state of Russia. Okay? Russia, in many aspects, is a broken society. Corruption. Russia is the most corrupt society in all of Europe. The rich people steal and then they run off to Europe or the United States or Dubai. Okay? So corruption is a huge problem in Russia. And because of corruption. The GDP.

### 4:00 seg-0004

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0004`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0004](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0004)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=240s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=240s)

Okay? The state of Russia is very low. So South Korea, which has about a third of the population of Russia, has a higher GDP. Okay? The state of Texas, this one state in the United States, has a higher GDP than Russia. So Russia, in many respects, is a very poor country. Okay? Second problem is alcoholism. One out of every six Russian males, about 16, 17 % of the population, they're alcoholics. Okay? It's a disease. They have the disease of alcoholism. One out of every three deaths in Russia is because of drinking too much. And because of alcoholism, the rate of young men dying is just increasing and increasing. Okay? The third problem is fertility. So right now, the fertility rate in Russia is 1.5. That is below 3%. That is below the replacement level. Remember that the replacement level for society is 2.1. Russia is 1.5. But probably you have a lot of men dying because of alcoholism.

### 5:16 seg-0005

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0005`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0005](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0005)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=316s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=316s)

Okay? So since the year 2000, the population in Russia has been declining steadily. And all this means is that if current trends continue, then Russia will cease to exist as a society. Okay? The nation will die. So why is this happening? Well, okay. The Western explanation is that this is happening because Russia is not democratic. Right? If you have full democracy and you unleash the human potential of your people, then Russia will prosper. But Putin, Vladimir Putin, has a different explanation. Okay? His explanation is that this is happening to Russia. Okay? Corruption, alcoholism, and low fertility because Russians have been lied to, deceived, and manipulated by Western civilization. Western civilization preaches the gospel of liberal democracy, of freedom, of human rights, of consumerism. And these are all lies. They're hypocrisies. They have fooled the Russian people and have corrupted the Russian soul and destroyed Russian civilization. And because Russians are abandoning their soul, their civilization, their nation, this is why this is happening.

### 6:57 seg-0006

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0006`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0006](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0006)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=417s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=417s)

Okay? Does that make sense? That is Putin's argument. So why does Putin believe this? Well. In the late 80s, the Soviet Union had basically lost the Cold War. And they lost the Cold War because their elite basically gave up. They no longer believed in communism. They didn't believe in self -sacrifice for the nation. They thought that Western values, the Western lifestyle was much better. Okay? So they gave up. In the late 80s, there was an American historian. Yes. He actually works for the American State Department. His name is Francis Fukuyama. And he wrote an extremely influential essay called The End of History. End of History. Okay? With a quotation mark. And he argued that the Soviet Union fell and America became triumphant because liberal democracy is the best idea to have ever been invented. Okay? And to make his argument, he uses the philosopher Frederick Hegel.

### 8:12 seg-0007

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0007`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0007](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0007)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=492s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=492s)

Okay? Now, Frederick Hegel had something called the theory of the dialectic. Dialectic. And what Hegel argued is that history is determined by a war of ideas. The progress of history is determined by the movement of ideas. And how ideas work is that. They have a pattern called the dialectic. Okay? So there's a thesis. A new idea comes into being. But then we recognize that this idea has problems. It's too extreme. It's too problematic. So we create an antithesis. Okay? But this antithesis itself is also too extreme. And this creates also problems. So then what happens is the thesis and antithesis come together and create a new idea. A more moderate, more efficient idea. Okay? Called the synthesis. And this is how history moves or progresses. And so Fukuyama takes this idea and says, okay, well, this explains what's happening today. Where at first you have a thesis called capitalism.

### 9:35 seg-0008

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0008`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0008](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0008)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=575s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=575s)

Okay? Capitalism. And this creates the industrial revolution. Right? And because capitalism was too extreme, we move towards communism. Okay? Communism was created to counteract the extremes of capitalism. But communism itself is too extreme. So then we move towards the middle. Which is the right idea. Which is called liberal democracy.

### 10:06 seg-0009

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0009`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0009](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0009)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=606s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=606s)

Okay?

### 10:10 seg-0010

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0010`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0010](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0010)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=610s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=610s)

So what is liberal democracy? Well, at the core of liberal democracy is the idea of consumerism. And the idea of consumerism is that. We exist to buy things. And as long as we buy things. There'll be world peace. Why? Because consumers have a need to buy. And therefore nations have a need to produce. And nations produce the best when they're trading together. As opposed to warring against each other. Okay? So this is the argument that Francis Fukuyama. Makes in the end of history. I want to explain this argument further. Okay? What's he really saying? Okay. So throughout human history. All societies have struggled with one problem. Which is how do we optimize the workforce? How do we get each and every person to work as hard as possible for our society? And if everyone did that. Then our society would be strong. United. And prosperous. Right? Okay? So that's a fundamental problem of politics. How do you optimize workforce participation?

### 11:34 seg-0011

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0011`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0011](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0011)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=694s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=694s)

Okay? And traditionally. Or historically. There have been three answers. The first is war. The second is religion. And the third is civilization. Okay? Now. As you can understand. These three things work. Because they give structure. Meaning. And purpose. To our lives. Okay? And we have structure. Meaning. And purpose. We are much more motivated to work hard. But as you can also see. There are actually lots of problems. With. All three. Right? War is you kill people. That's bad. Religion is superstitious. Okay? But civilization itself. Is also problematic. Because. The logical. Exchange. Of. Civilization. Is. Racism. Okay? Which is to say that. We. Russians. Are better than everyone else. We. Chinese. Are better than everyone else. Therefore. We can do whatever we want. Okay? And this naturally leads to. Imperialism. Right? We have. A duty. To go. Conquer. Other people. To civilize them. Right? Something called the white man's burden. And this leads to.

### 13:06 seg-0012

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0012`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0012](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0012)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=786s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=786s)

Fascism. Okay? Okay? War. And conquest. Are the ultimate good. So. Historically. War. Religion. And civilization. Have given. People. Structure. Meaning. And purpose. But they create. A lot of problems. They create. Suffering. And war. And. Pain. Okay? So. But over time. What has happened. Is. That. All. Of them. Over time. Have become. Abstract. And the reason why. They've become. More abstract. Is in order. To increase. The population. In order to. Create. Mass. Society. Okay? So let me give you an example of this. The earliest religions. In humanity. Have been. Polytheistic. Okay? And the gods. Themselves. Were very much like humans. Think of the Greeks. Okay? Zeus. Athena. Hera. Okay? It was a polytheistic society. And. They. Were very much like humans. But over time. This polytheism. Became monotheistic. And it became abstract. Okay? The idea of god. Was so much. Removed from us. And. The benefit of that. Is that. You can. You can have.

### 14:28 seg-0013

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0013`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0013](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0013)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=868s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=868s)

More people. Believing in one god. And it. Motivate you. To work harder. Okay? Because it's such an abstract concept. And. Because of. Abstraction. We. Develop. New ideas. For example. Money. Okay? So. Rather. Than. Have. War. Religion. And civilization. As. The. Structure. And center. Of. Our. Society. Why not. Make. Money. The structure. Of. Your. Society. Okay? And. This. We. Call. Capitalism. And. Capitalism. Of. Course. Led. To. The. Industrial. Revolution. Industrialism. Okay? Capitalism. Meant. That. Societies. Were. Becoming. Welfare. And. Welfare. More. Industrial. And. More. Industrialized. Okay? Does. That. Make. Sense? All. Right. But. There's. A. Problem. With. Capitalism. Right? What's. A. Problem. With. Making. Capital. Or. Money. At. The. Very. Heart. Of. Your. Society. Exactly. Okay. So. The. First. Major. Problem. With. Capitalism. Is. It's. All. Consuming. So. As. Jack. Says. All. Capitalism. Cares. About. Is. The. Expansion. And. Growth. Of. Capital. Regardless. Of. Its. Effect. On. Society. Okay. Profit. For. The. Sake. Of. Growing.

### 16:04 seg-0014

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0014`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0014](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0014)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=964s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=964s)

Profit. It's. An. All. Consuming. Idea. Which. Can. Ultimately. Lead. To. The. Destruction. Of. The. Planet. Okay. That's. First. Problem. What's. Another. Problem. With. Capitalism. Or. The. Idea. Of. Having. Money. As. The. Heart. And. Center. Of. Your. Society. Okay. So. What's. What. This. Means. Is. That. Money. Likes. To. Consolidate. Itself. Okay. Consolidating. Okay. Meaning. That. If. So. The. Example. Is. Let's. Just. Say. That. Each. Of. Us. Had. A. Million. Dollars. Right. What's. Happens. Is. That. You. You. Exactly. Have. One. Person. Of. All. The. Money. Okay. Does. That. Make. Sense. Because. That's. The. Fastest. Way. To. Grow. Money. By. Consolidating. It. Okay. So. That's. Problematic. What. Else. Is. Wrong. With. Capitalism. Or. Money. Okay. So. Another. Problem. Is. The. Idea. Of. Alienating. Or. Dehumanizing. What. Does. This. Mean. Capital. Alienates. And. Dehumanizes. What. What. Does. That. Mean. Exactly. Okay. You. Are. You. As. A. Person. Cease. To. Be. Human. Right. To. A. Human. Is. To. A. Complex.

### 17:55 seg-0015

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0015`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0015](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0015)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1075s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1075s)

Multi. Faceted. Individual. Who. Likes. To. Create. And. Love. But. In. Capitalism. You're. Only. Your. Production. Value. You're. Only. The. Amount. Of. Money. In. Your. Bank. Account. Okay. Does. Make. Sense. All. Right. So. For. All. These. Reasons. Capitalism. Is. Really. Bad. There. Are. Actually. More. Reasons. Okay. So. Karl. Marx. And. His. Communist. Manifesto. Points. Out. All. These. Problems. Of. Capitalism. And. He. Proposes. A. Solution. Which. Is. Okay. Rather. Than. Make. Money. At. The. Heart. And. Center. Of. Your. Industrial. Society. Make. The. Worker. The. Heart. And. Center. Of. Your. Society. Okay. So. He. Makes. His. Argument. But. What's. Very. Revolutionary. Or. Present. About. His. Argument. Is. This. Is. A. Natural. Cycle. Okay. This. Is. You. Have. To. Survive. How. You. Feel. About. This. Your. Parents. Have. Died. Because. You. To. Support. You. So. At. Age. 16. 17. 18. You. Go. Off. To. A. Factory. To. Make. Money. For. Yourself. So. How. Do. You. Feel. About. This. Are.

### 19:37 seg-0016

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0016`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0016](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0016)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1177s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1177s)

You. Happy. About. This. How. How. Do. You. Feel. Depressing. And. And. Lonely. And. Yeah. Exactly. You're. Bitter. And. You're. Depressed. Okay. You're. Alienated. So. Then. What. Do. You. Do. Now. You're. Bitter. You're. Angry. You're. Depressed. You're. Lonely. So. What. Do. You.

### 20:27 seg-0017

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0017`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0017](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0017)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1227s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1227s)

Okay.

### 20:27 seg-0018

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0018`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0018](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0018)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1227s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1227s)

You. Start. To. Think. About. Why. This. Is. The. Case. Right. You. Start. To. A. Political. Consciousness. Okay. What. Marks. Call. Political. Consciousness. From. This. Alienation. Of. The. Worker. Workers. Will. Start. To. Develop. A. Political. Consciousness. Right. They're. Like. Why. Is. Happening. Why. Has. The. Government. Abandoned. Me. Why. Has. Society. Abandoned. Me. What. Can. I. Do. About. This. Okay. So. Then. What. Happens. That's. Exactly. Right. You. Want. Change. Right. And. How. And. How. Do. You. Enact. Change. Yes. Okay. You. Spread. Your. Ideas. And. You. Organize. Right. And. You. Organize. What. You. Realize. Yeah. You. What. You. Recognize. When. You. When. You. Start. To. Organize. Is. The. Capitalist. Need. You. To. Do. The. Work. Right. The. Capitalist. Own. The. Capital. And. The. Factories. But. You. Are. The. One. Who's. Actually. Doing. The. Real. Work. So. About. You. The. Factories. Can't. Run. So. It's. Only. United. You. Can. Enact. Whatever. Political. Demands. You. Want. Okay. Does. That. Make.

### 21:41 seg-0019

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0019`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0019](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0019)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1301s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1301s)

Sense. Okay. So. For. Marks. This. Is. Just. A. Natural. Evolution. Of. Capitalism. Capitalism. Leads. To. The. Alienation. Of. The. Working. Class. Which. Will. Lead. To. Their. Political. Consciousness. Which. Will. Lead. To. Their. Solidarity. Which. Will. Lead. To. A. Political. Revolution. And. So. You. Can. Make. The. Worker. As. The. Heart. And. Center. Of. Your. Society. Okay. Does. It. Make. Sense. Guys. All. Right. Now. What's. Amazing. About. Marks. Is. That. Today. We. Say. He's. Wrong. Right. Communism. Happened. In. The. Soviet. Union. And. Happened. In. China. But. It. Happen. In. Europe. And. United. States. Where. Mark. Said. It. Would. Happen. First. Because. Germany. Was. More. Industrialized. Than. Russia. Or. China. Okay. Does. That. Sense. That's. What. We. Say. If. You. Think. About. It. Deeply. Okay. Marx. Is. Right. After. World. War. Two. Every. Society. Every. Industrial. Society. To. Some. Extent. Adopted. The. Ideas. Of. Your. Society. And. Why. They. Do. That. After. World. War. Two. Exactly. Okay. Because.

### 23:15 seg-0020

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0020`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0020](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0020)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1395s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1395s)

Workers. Create. Value.

### 23:19 seg-0021

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0021`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0021](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0021)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1399s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1399s)

Money.

### 23:20 seg-0022

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0022`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0022](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0022)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1400s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1400s)

Doesn't. Create. Any. Value. Money. Just. Creates. More. Money. Okay. Speculative. But. The. Workers. Create. Value. The. Productive. And. Therefore. You. Have. To. Treat. Your. Workers. Properly. So. In. America. And. In. Europe. Workers. Became. The. Heart. And. Center. Of. Your. Society. And. The. Workers. Who. Unions. Could. Demand. Political. Reforms. And. So. All. Society. Was. Geared. Towards. Making. The. Lives. Of. The. Middle. Class. The. Working. Class. Better. Okay. So. In. 80s. We. Start. To. Change. This. Why. Why. We. Would. To. Change. The. System. It's. Great. System. Right. Marx. Is. Right. Having. The. Worker. As. The. Heart. And. Center. Of. Your. Society. As. The. Central. Organizing. Unit. Of. Society. Makes. A. Lot. More. Sense. Than. Having. Money. As. The. Heart. And. Center. Okay. But. Starting. In. The. 80s. We. Start. To. Back. To. Money. Why.

### 24:50 seg-0023

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0023`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0023](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0023)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1490s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1490s)

Excuse.

### 24:50 seg-0024

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0024`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0024](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0024)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1490s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1490s)

Me. Who. Wants. More. Yes. Exactly. So. What. Happened. In. The. 80s. Is. Something. Called. Not. Equality. You. Want. Difference. You. Want. To. Have. Power. And. Money. In. Your. Hands. Does. It. Make. Sense. So. The. Revolt. Elite. Happened. In. The. 80s. And. This. What. In. The. States. The. Reagan. Revolution. Okay. The. Reagan. Revolution. The. Beginning. Of. New. Liberalism. Free. Market. Capitalism. And. In. Britain. It. Was. Called. Thatcherism. Okay. Margaret. Thatcher. The. Thatcher. Revolution. And. So. Now. You. Need. To. Transition. Away. From. The. Worker. To. Something. Else. Okay. Another. Ideology. That. Allows. The. Elite. To. Amass. Power. Okay. So. Just. To. Show. You. How. Radical. This. Revolution. Was. In. The. 1970s. Okay. 1970s. If. You. Are. A. CEO. The. Head. Of. A. Company. Okay. You. Making. On. Average. One. Million. US. Dollars. A. Year. That's. Pretty. Good. Right. That's. Really. Good. Money. And. That. One. Million. Dollars. Was. More. Than. 20. Times. The. Worker. Okay. And. That's.

### 26:35 seg-0025

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0025`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0025](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0025)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1595s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1595s)

Pretty. Reasonable. Today. The. Average. CEO. United. States. Makes. 20. Million. Dollars. A. Year. And. That. Is. 200. To. 300. Times. More. Than. The. Average. Worker. In. The. Company. It. Doesn't. Make. Sense. So. In. The. 80s. Inequality. Start. To. Explode. Right. And. So. They're. Transitioning. From. The. Worker. To. A. New. Organizing. Unit. In. The. 80s. The. Government. Promised. You. A. Good. Job. You. A. Member. Society. If. A. Citizen. I. Promise. You. Good. Job. All. Right. So. This. Sounds. Like. A. Subtle. Ship. Going. From. The. Worker. To. The. Consumer. Okay. What. This. Meant. Was. A. Revolution. In. Society. A. Revolution. In. Politics. So. Remember. That. An. Example. The. Worker. The. Worker. Has. That. Political. Consciousness. In. Order. To. Protect. His. Or. Her. Rights. In. Order. To. Organize. And. Unify. And. Push. For. Favorable. Political. Reforms. Okay. That's. What. The. Worker. Must. Do. Okay. But. Now. Let's. Think. About. The. Mentality. Of. The. Consumer. And. To. Do. This.

### 28:26 seg-0026

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0026`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0026](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0026)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1706s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1706s)

Let's. Do. Another. Thought. Experiment. And. The. Thought. Experiment. Is. This. Everyone. In. The. School. About. 500. People. I. Decide. To. Give. Everyone. One. Million. U.S. Dollars. Okay. So. Everyone. In. The. School. Has. Exactly. One. Million. U.S. Dollars. To. Spend. What. Happens. Now. Think. About. This. What. Happens. Now. Use. Your. Imagination. What. Happens. What's. First. Thing. You. Do. What's. The. First. Thing.

### 29:07 seg-0027

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0027`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0027](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0027)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1747s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1747s)

Do.

### 29:10 seg-0028

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0028`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0028](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0028)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1750s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1750s)

I've. Given. You. Million. Dollars. What. You. Do. Of. It. Well. The. First. Thing. You. Do. Is. Buy. Furniture. Then. What. He. To. Me. Buy. Furniture. Then. What. Does. He. Do. There's. Something. That. He. Must. Do. That's. Very. Important. What. What. What. Does. He. Want. To.

### 30:00 seg-0029

- Speaker: UNKNOWN
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0029`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0029](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0029)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1800s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1800s)

Take.

### 30:00 seg-0030

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0030`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0030](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0030)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1800s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1800s)

Pictures. Post. On. Social. Media. Right. So. Everyone. Sees. On. Social. Media. Then. You. See. This. Now. Has. This. Huge. House. In. Beijing. With. Lots. Of. Fancy. Furniture. What. Do. You. You. Also. Want. To. Buy. A. House. But. What. Kind. Of. House. A. Bigger. House. Right. And. Then. What. Do. You. Do. Also. Post. Pictures. Okay. Then. How. Do. Other. People. Feel. You. Think. This. Is. Funny. Okay. But. This. Happens. All. The. Time. So. Very. Quickly. What. Happens. In. The. School. And. Yeah. All. Spend. Your. Money. And. All. Go. Into. Debt. Right. Because. You're. Competition. With. Each. Other. To. Buy. The. Biggest. Thing. And. One. Million. Dollars. A. Money. But. It's. Not. Enough. To. Buy. Everything. Right. So. You. Go. Into. Debt. You. Borrow. More. More. Money. To. Buy. More. Things. And. Then. What. Happens. And. Then. What. Happens. How. Do. You. Guys. Feel. About. Each. Other. You. Guys. Have. Lunch. Together. You. Guys. Have. Dinner. Together.

### 31:19 seg-0031

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0031`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0031](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0031)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1879s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=1879s)

You. Guys. Hate. Each. Other. Right. At. End. Of. The. What. Happen. Is. You. All. Going. To. Debt. And. You. All. Hate. Each. Other. Right. So. That's. Consumerism. This. Is. What. What. Happens. This. Is. What. Happens. In. The. World. Of. You. Okay, it doesn't make sense? So, when you see someone, and you're like, okay, well, do I want to date this person? You don't ask, oh, is this person a nice person? You ask yourself, how much money does this person have? Okay, you understand? You use economic logic in order to understand the world, and to reason and analyze the world, okay? Now, let me ask you this question. Today, is this how China works? Is this how the world works? The answer is yes, okay? Are you like this? Yes, you are like this, okay? You've been brainwashed into thinking that this is the only way to behave and to think. You're in school, why are you in school?

### 33:20 seg-0032

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0032`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0032](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0032)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2000s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2000s)

So you can get a good job, why? To make money, and so you can buy things, okay? You understand, that's how you all think. But there are different ways to think about school, right? You're like, I'm in school to learn, to open my mind, to have an imagination, to think critically about the world, right? And that was the way we thought about school when the workers were dominant. But now that consumers are dominant, all we think about is, how do I get a good job? How do I buy a bigger house? Because I want to post it on social media, okay? So, if you think about this, what this really is, is the perfection of slavery, does it make sense? What does this phrase mean, the perfection of slavery? Yeah, you become a slave of the money, but what? Why is this perfect? Yes, okay, if you're a slave, you rebel, right?

### 34:28 seg-0033

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0033`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0033](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0033)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2068s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2068s)

But if you don't know you're a slave, and you like this, you choose this, then you will never rebel, okay? So the consumerism is the perfection of slavery. And that's why Francis Fukuyama thinks that consumerism is the end of history, because it is a system that achieves what the elites want, and the masses are unwilling and unable to protest and rebel, okay, does that make sense? It's a perfect system, okay? So, but there are certain civilizations that rebel against, against slavery intrinsically. It is in their nature to rebel against slavery. And one of these civilizations is the Russian civilization. Okay? So when you impose slavery on Russians, they become corrupt, they become alcoholics, and they refuse to have babies. That is why Russia is failing as a society. Because slavery is being imposed on Russians, by the Westerners, and the Russians refuse to be slaves. slaves but because this system consumerism is so perfect Russian

### 35:50 seg-0034

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0034`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0034](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0034)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2150s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2150s)

people lack a understanding of how to rebel against the system and that's why Russia is falling apart okay that is a Putin argument does it make sense okay in other words consumerism has corrupted the Russian soul and Russians have chosen to be corrupted by consumerism okay so does it make sense so what Vladimir Putin must do is free his people even though they may enjoy prison okay even though Russians may enjoy slavery Putin is still gonna free his people and he's gonna do it by creating a new concept to combat consumerism okay so we've gone from the worker to the consumer and Putin is going into this a new concept called the warrior the consumer is the perhaps превient Allesこんにちは person, an individual, who acts alone and does so to preserve his or her life. The consumer is a coward. The consumer lacks imagination. The consumer is alienated. The warrior is different. The warrior is

### 37:16 seg-0035

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0035`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0035](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0035)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2236s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2236s)

an individual who sees that through his actions, he or she can shape the direction of history. I can make my own reality through my courage, and through my imagination, and by acting with others. Does that make sense? So let's do another thought experiment to understand the warrior concept. Let's just say that in this school, I give everyone a million dollars, and now you hate each other. Then what happens is I put you on a plane, and I take you all to an island. And you're on this island. And you're on this island. Unfortunately, on this island, there are millions and millions of flesh -eating monkeys. They want to eat you, okay? But you hate each other. You don't want to work together. What happens now? What happens now? Yeah, that's right. If you don't do anything, everyone gets eaten by a monkey, right? But what are you going to do? You will fight the monkeys, but how will you fight the monkeys?

### 38:41 seg-0036

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0036`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0036](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0036)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2321s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2321s)

Okay. What's going to happen is that everyone is going to put aside the differences. And work together to fight the monkeys, okay? And how will you feel in this process? Are you going to be happy or depressed? You're going to be happy. Why? Exactly. You're all working towards the same goal, okay? Structure, meaning, and purpose. Okay? That's what war does. War gives you structure, meaning, and purpose, so you feel happy about yourself. Okay? Now, let's just say that during this war, Celine dies, okay? Now what happens? What does death do now? Yeah? Yes. And? So, Celine dies. She becomes a martyr. You all celebrate her. Remember her. You give her a great funeral. And then what do you do? You fight harder. Do you understand? Because death gives you purpose. Her death makes your life much more valuable to you and to others, okay? Not only do you celebrate her life, but you celebrate your own life, okay?

### 40:03 seg-0037

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0037`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0037](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0037)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2403s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2403s)

All right. Now, let's just say that the monkeys are coming, okay? And there's a bridge. There's a bridge. And Jack is standing on this bridge. And there are 10 of you on the other side, okay? So Jack has a choice. He can either cut the bridge and kill himself and save the others, or he can run and possibly all get killed, right, by the monkeys. What does Jack do? For sure, he will do this. What will he do? He's going to sacrifice himself, okay? Do you understand? We've seen this in war over and over, okay? That's what war does to people. It makes you, it gives you structure, meaning, and purpose, and it makes you a stronger, more disciplined person, okay? Does that make sense? Right? So that's the thought experiment. So, in theory, then, when Putin launched this military operation, it's called a special

### 41:11 seg-0038

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0038`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0038](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0038)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2471s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2471s)

military operation in Ukraine back in February 2022, then we should see improvements in Russian society, okay? Does that make sense? So, what's happened in Russia since this war? Are people happier? Do you think people are happier? Do you think people are happier now? Okay, I think they are. Do you think people are more unified? I think they are, okay? So, one example of this is the Russian economy is surviving U.S. sanctions. In fact, it's getting stronger and stronger. Why? Because people are fully participating in the economy now, okay? So, an example of this is that every month, Russia is producing 150,000 ammunition cells, okay, for the war. Every month, Russia is producing more ammunition cells, shells, for the war, okay? 150,000. Can you guys guess how much the United States produces every month in comparison? Guess, guess the number. Do you hear me? 100,000? 2,000, okay? Do you understand? So, Russia is steering towards a war economy, okay?

### 42:52 seg-0039

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0039`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0039](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0039)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2572s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2572s)

It's factories are producing more and more weapons, but that means more and more people are employed, which means that they're drinking less, okay? Okay? If you don't have structure and meaning and purpose in your society, all this goes down, okay? Corruption goes down, alcoholism goes down, oh, sorry, fertility goes up, all right? Does that make sense? So, last year, Putin made this statement, okay? He was asked, okay, you have a lot of Russians dying on the battlefield. And he said, well, when they die on the battlefield, we honor them. They sacrifice themselves for their country. They'll always be remembered as heroes. Their families will always love them. But if we just let them do whatever they want, all they're going to do is drink themselves to death, okay? Do you understand? So, Putin is saying is that what war is, ultimately, it is a mechanism for society to rejuvenate itself, okay?

### 44:04 seg-0040

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0040`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0040](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0040)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2644s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2644s)

What war is, it's opportunity for society to cut away the fat. To make a difference. To make itself more lean. So, for Putin, this war, it's not really about conquering Ukraine or defending against NATO. It's really about saving Russian civilization. It's really about saving the Russian soul, okay? If you don't fight this war and you let these trends continue, then Russia will eventually cease to exist as a nation. Does that make sense? Okay? So, what's going to happen is that over time, a new concept will arise to challenge consumerism and liberal democracy. And we will call this concept Putinism. And the idea of Putinism is really continuous war. That as a society, you should be constantly fighting wars in order to discipline, unify your nation. Okay? And make your people stronger and more prosperous. That is Putinism. Okay? And I think this will be his defining legacy. And Putinism is a direct response to liberal democracy.

### 45:33 seg-0041

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0041`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0041](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0041)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2733s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2733s)

Okay? So, we will shift as a society from one that is based on the consumer to one that is based on the warrior. Does that make sense, guys? Okay? Any questions? Oh. So, Selina asked a question. How is capitalism different from liberal democracy? That's a great question. Okay? So, capitalism is only concerned about capital. Okay? So, you can be a fascist country and be capitalistic. So, capitalism, many people will say, leads to fascism. So, Nazis were extremely capitalistic. They see communism, the Soviet Union, as a direct threat to its existence. Okay? The idea of a liberal democracy is the participation of everyone in the generation of capital. Does that make sense? So, in other words, and this is one of the ironies of the 20th century, is that capitalism and democracy are opposing forces. And the idea of liberal democracy is to put the two together in a synthesis as to explain away or ignore the contradictions.

### 46:53 seg-0042

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0042`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0042](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0042)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2813s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2813s)

Okay? But capitalism and democracy are contradictions. Does that make sense? Okay. Any more questions? Okay. So, Jack makes a great point, which is, like, wars that have been fought before have destroyed societies. Okay? So, think of Athens and Sparta. And think of World War II and World War I. Okay? Societies become exhausted and destroyed. So, the idea of continuous war is you fight small -scale wars. So, as to manage. Okay? The size of the conflict. Okay? And it's important to do that. Why? Why don't you want a large -scale war? No, no, no, no. You, what might happen in a large -scale war? That's right. Okay. The problem is you have nuclear weapons in place now. Okay? So, it is not, it's not smart to fight a large -scale war. When you fight a large -scale war, you can't really control the escalation. And eventually, say, the United States and Russia fight a ground war in Europe.

### 48:14 seg-0043

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0043`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0043](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0043)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2894s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2894s)

Eventually, they'll be so angry at each other. They might have to use nuclear weapons. Okay? That's why one of the major tenets of Putinism is you pick small, contained conflicts. So, Ukraine is a small, contained conflict. Okay? An invasion of France or an invasion of Britain would lead to nuclear war. Does that make sense? Okay? And that's why the United States would also pick Iran. Because Iran would be a small, contained conflict. Does that make sense? Okay? So, this is the Putinism. Okay? War is a mechanism to transform your society. Whereas before, we understood war as a mechanism to conquer others. Okay? As imperialism or the spreading of civilization. Now, the idea of Putinism is no, guys. We don't care about the other people. We care about ourselves. We're using war as basically a mechanism to discipline our bodies. Just like the gym. Okay?

### 49:15 seg-0044

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0044`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0044](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0044)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2955s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=2955s)

Does that make sense? Okay? The thing about global leaders, world leaders, is they're all insane, but they're not stupid. You understand? There's a difference. They're happy to kill millions of people. They're not happy to blow up the world. Okay? But Jack's other point is that Russia is not a very wealthy country. Right? Eventually, you're going to exhaust yourself. And that's why we think war is huge. Because war is usually a pyramid scheme. Okay? And what that means is... So, the example is Nazi Germany. When they were fighting these wars, it was costing their economy a lot of money. So, they were forced to fight even more wars. Okay? That's what eventually led to Germany's invasion of Russia because they needed the resources and the manpower. Okay? And that's the same thing that will happen here where, okay, Putin is spending a lot of money to fight this war in Ukraine. Okay? But after he finishes his war in Ukraine, he needs to go conquer more territory for their resources.

### 50:29 seg-0045

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0045`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0045](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0045)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3029s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3029s)

Okay? So, in the long term, this could lead to disaster. Okay? This could lead to a large -scale war. But in the short term, it does work. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay. Any more questions? Okay. So, Selena asked a great question, which is like, eventually, people are going to get exhausted. Okay? And what Putin believes is that the Russians are a warrior culture. Okay? Russians enjoy war. Russians are good at war. So, Russians won't be exhausted by war. They'll be galvanized and energized by war. That's a theory. Okay? And he's right. Okay? There are warrior cultures out there around the world that do enjoy fighting. Okay? So, you think of the German people. Right? The Germans have been fighting wars for a thousand years, and they've been really good at it. Okay? You think of Japanese. Okay? Japan is also a warrior culture that enjoys fighting wars.

### 51:48 seg-0046

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0046`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0046](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0046)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3108s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3108s)

Okay? China is not a warrior culture. It's very hard for the Chinese to fight wars. And Chinese... Okay. I hate to say this, but China would probably lose most wars. Okay? It's not a warrior culture. So, for Chinese civilization, war would be exhausting. But for Russian civilization, war can be energizing and rejuvenating. Okay? Does that make sense? It depends on your civilization. Okay? Any more questions? Okay. So, what's going to happen? And the answer is that warrior culture works right now. Okay? Because warrior culture beats consumer culture easily. So, you see a war in Ukraine where Russians are destroying the Ukrainians, and the Europeans are like, I'm too busy watching TV. I'm too busy buying things. I'm too busy vacationing. Okay? So, consumers don't want to go to war. Okay? But eventually, Russia is going to reach a point where it directly threatens Germany, and France, and Britain. And then they will start to transition into a war culture.

### 53:15 seg-0047

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0047`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0047](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0047)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3195s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3195s)

Okay? So, Putinism will become the dominant ideology for the next 50 years. Okay? But Putinism can spread to other countries. Okay? So, Japan can adopt Putinism. Germany can adopt it. Britain can adopt it. Okay? And so, when this happens, we call this world multipolar. So, the word we use is multipolar. Okay? Or multipolarity. Meaning that there are different centers of power throughout the world. Right now, there's only the United States. It's a global hegemon. But over the next 10, 20 years, we expect a multipolar world where each region has different hegemons. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. Any more questions? Okay. So, what happens to the United States? So, next week, we'll discuss the United States. Okay? But what I will show you is that if the United States fights this war in Iran, what happens What it has to do is retreat back to its borders.

### 54:24 seg-0048

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0048`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0048](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0048)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3264s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3264s)

Okay? It has to become isolationist. But I'll explain that to you next week. Okay? Any more questions? Sorry. Sorry. Go ahead. Okay. So, that's a great question. Okay? So, we just said that consumer culture is the perfection of slavery, but is war culture slavery? And you can make the argument that it's actually anti -slavery. Why? Why? What can the world do that the consumer cannot do? What's the problem with having a war culture, really? See what I mean? No. What can warriors do that the consumers would never do? Guys, warriors can rebel. Right? Warriors can mutiny. The army can be like, you guys are terrible. We're going to rebel against you. Okay? You understand? Does that make sense to you? Consumers don't do that. Consumers are like, hmm, I'm going to rebel. I'm going to stop buying things. No one's going to do that. Okay? You will never be like, I'm going to stop buying things.

### 56:07 seg-0049

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0049`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0049](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0049)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3367s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3367s)

Because I think it's bad for the environment. You won't do that. Whereas warriors are like, you know what? I don't like this leader. Let's march to Moscow and get rid of him. They can do that. And they do that all the time. That's why war culture is so destructive. And that's why war culture was so dominant before, and then we got rid of it. Because for political leaders, war culture is a direct threat. Does that make sense? Okay. So when in this question, this reveals a contradiction in Putinism. Okay? What is the ultimate problem in Putin turning his entire country into a war society? What's the problem with that? And it's a huge problem for Russia. And this is why, ultimately, Russia will not triumph in a multipolar world. In fact, it will probably fall apart. Why? For a war culture to triumph, what does it need? Warriors fight best when what?

### 57:17 seg-0050

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0050`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0050](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0050)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3437s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3437s)

When there's a king, guys. When there's a king. That's why we have kings. Right? So what's the problem with Putin's Russia? What's going to happen to Russia? Guys, eventually, Putin's going to die. Do you understand? Eventually, he's going to die. And then what's going to happen? The country's going to fall apart because there's a war culture. And you have these different generals fighting each other for total control. It's going to be civil war. Okay? Putin right now is a strategic genius. He's the king. Everyone admires him. So he unites everyone. And he can direct officers out of the country. He can direct the entire society into total war. When he dies, this society is going to fall apart. Okay? That's why Putin's legacy will not be a strong Russia. It will be Putinism. Okay? The idea of continuous war. Russia may not survive without Putin. Okay? And quite honestly, when you have a great leader like Putin, it's impossible to replace him.

### 58:25 seg-0051

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0051`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0051](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0051)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3505s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3505s)

Right? No one would have his genius and authority and ruthlessness. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. And David, you had a question? Okay. So David asked a great question. Okay? How much of society agrees with Putin? And the answer is most people don't like to go to war. Okay? Most people are scared by war. But ultimately, society is determined by those who are willing to act on their beliefs. Okay? So when we looked at America, look, they issue a lobby. They're only a small faction, small fraction of the American population, like less than 1%. Okay? But because they're willing to act and they're organized and they're determined, they get their way. Okay? Does that make sense? Same thing in Russia where at most, okay, I would say at most you have 10 % who are like, oh, Putinism is a great idea. Let's go conquer the world.

### 59:39 seg-0052

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0052`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0052](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0052)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3579s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3579s)

Okay? At most you have 10%. Most people are like, we want peace. We want to live our lives. I have children. I want my children to be safe. I don't want to send my children to war. Okay? But again, history is determined by those who are determined to act in unison. Okay? So it's usually the most extreme individuals who get their way. Does that make sense? Okay? But thanks for the question. Okay? Any more questions? Okay. So Putin believes that Russia is first. And foremost, a great civilization. Okay? But as a great civilization, it also has to fight wars to protect itself. You understand? So Putin's like, you know what? If America left us alone, we would not fight wars. Okay? It's only because America insists on encircling us, insists on trying to destroy our culture, our civilization, that we must fight a war. Okay? Does that make sense? All right? And so

### 1:00:59 seg-0053

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0053`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0053](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0053)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3659s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3659s)

what people say is, listen, the war in Ukraine, it's ultimately caused by NATO encroachment into Russia. Right? So NATO, after the Soviet Union fell, expanded five times. Guys, NATO was set up as a defensive alliance against the Soviet Union. Well, if you don't have a Soviet Union, you don't need NATO anymore. So why is NATO expanding? In fact, NATO was going to expand into Ukraine. So Putin is like, we are fighting this war ultimately to defend our civilization. That's what matters. The defense of our civilization. And if it requires us into going, if it requires us to go to war, then we will do so. Okay? And this is this process that will create Putinism. Okay? Or continuous war. Does that make sense? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? Okay. So even though only 10 % agree with Putinism, I actually don't know the real number. Okay? But I think it's only a minority. What happens is that in war, people become much more unified.

### 1:02:31 seg-0054

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0054`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0054](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0054)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3751s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3751s)

Okay? So the example is Ukraine, where actually about 50 % of the people in Ukraine were Russian speakers. Okay? And there was a large group of people, at least a third, who were sympathetic towards Russia. But the moment that Putin invaded, they all united under Zelensky. Okay? So that's what war does. War unifies people. So again, back to the island example, you guys may hate each other when you land on the island, but hey, if there's a million flesh -eating monkeys that want to kill you, you guys are going to become a family. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay. Is this clear to you guys? Okay? You look as though you want to ask a question. Are you confused by something, Celine? Excuse me? Okay. So again, Russia is a warrior culture. It enjoys war. It's good at fighting wars. Okay? But China is not a warrior culture.

### 1:03:49 seg-0055

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0055`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0055](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0055)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3829s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3829s)

And the reason why is that throughout most of Chinese history, China was the dominant power, the hegemon. Okay? Also, China is surrounded by natural defenses. So to the east, you have the sea. To the south and to the west, you have mountains. To the north, you have the Great Wall. Okay? So China doesn't feel threatened by anyone, and therefore, it doesn't have a warrior culture. Does that make sense? But Russia is a huge country that's been invaded multiple times. Okay? And all these invasions were traumatic for Russia. Okay? So you look at the German invasion of the Soviet Union in about 1941. That killed 20 million people. Millions of Russians died in that war. And people still celebrate that war. Okay? So China is not a warrior culture. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? Any more questions? Okay. So what we will do next week is we'll talk about Putin's strategic genius. Okay?

### 1:05:08 seg-0056

- Speaker: SPEAKER_03
- Source ref: `video:predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k@transcript:v1#seg-0056`
- Transcript segment: [https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0056](https://jianglens.com/episodes/predictive-history-aepsuc-uq5k/transcript/#seg-0056)
- Video timestamp: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3908s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k&t=3908s)

And what I will show you, and this will be interesting, is that the way that Russians see the world is radically different from the way we see the world. Okay? So we'll discuss Putin's strategy moving forward. Next class. Okay? Does that make sense? All right, good.