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Avoid repeated third-person framing. Do not impersonate first-person authorship except when quoting verified source material.", "trace_policy": "Paragraph-level transcript refs. Interpretive claims stay tied to exact source spans.", "dek": "School says it teaches literacy, competence, creativity, and lifelong learning. Jiang's answer is colder: the school that actually exists is a game built by parents, teachers, administrators, government, colleges, and students, and the winning moves are status, minimum effort, obedience, and avoiding exile.", "thesis": "The lecture begins with the official mission of school and then turns it inside out. School should make students literate, capable, creative, collaborative, and eager to keep learning. Instead it often trains the opposite: children stop reading, treat classmates as competitors, burn books as liberation, and learn to satisfy power. Jiang's own 2008 reform makes the contradiction personal. He built seminars, reading, a coffee house, a daily newspaper, transparency, innovation, and openness. It worked, and that is why it failed. He had created a better game than the one the stakeholders wanted to play. The real school is not organized around learning. It is organized around parents buying face, teachers getting by, administrators appeasing powerful families, government wanting no problems, colleges wanting tuition, and students learning that grades mean pleasing the people who control their lives. Reform is possible only inside the convergence point of those interests. Try to be God outside it, and the game throws you out.", "opening": { "heading": "Core Reading", "text": "School is supposed to teach literacy, core competence, and lifelong learning. The bitter joke is that the institution built for learning often teaches hatred of learning. Students stop reading books, compete against classmates, wait for the exam to end, and throw the books into the sky like liberation. The game-theory question is not whether this is good or bad. The question is why rational players keep building it. The answer is that school is a convergence point: parents want face, teachers want minimum work, administrators want powerful parents calm, government wants no problems, colleges want money, and students adapt to whatever gets rewarded. Actual learning becomes the least important game.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the institution built for learning often teaches hatred of learning", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 139.72, "end": 208.79, "time_label": "2:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to like actually love learning and you have to like know how to learn for yourself so these are the three basic purposes of school and that's why you're at the school unfortunately what we know is that most schools i'm..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 208.79, "end": 274.43, "time_label": "3:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity critical thinking..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "throw the books into the sky like liberation", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 208.79, "end": 274.43, "time_label": "3:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity critical thinking..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 274.43, "end": 327.76, "time_label": "4:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want to read a book again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to learn again i never..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "school is a convergence point", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:education-game-forms-person", "lens-point:education-soul-game-atlas" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1224.36, "end": 1309.05, "time_label": "20:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "again, and objectively think about what the interests and motivations of each player are, and when their interests converge, that's the game they play. 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Schools do not require books, so university professors retreat to paragraphs and videos. Collaboration becomes a zero-sum ranking game. Lifelong learning becomes a ceremony of exhaustion: after the exam, students rip up books and celebrate never wanting to read, test, or learn again.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "marks": [ { "text": "after the exam, students rip up books and celebrate never wanting to read, test, or learn again", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 208.79, "end": 274.43, "time_label": "3:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity critical thinking..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 274.43, "end": 327.76, "time_label": "4:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want to read a book again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to learn again i never..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 139.72, "end": 208.79, "time_label": "2:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to like actually love learning and you have to like know how to learn for yourself so these are the three basic purposes of school and that's why you're at the school unfortunately what we know is that most schools i'm..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 208.79, "end": 274.43, "time_label": "3:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity critical thinking..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 274.43, "end": 327.76, "time_label": "4:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want to read a book again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to learn again i never..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 0, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.24, "end": 62.5, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay so welcome back to game theory and um as i discussed last class our goal is able to is to use game theory to analyze global events to understand why they're happening as well as make certain predictions about how t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 62.5, "end": 139.72, "time_label": "1:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in a way that allows you to be functional in society as well as to be creative right okay so the goals are basically literacy all right which means reading and writing this is the primary purpose of school because in or..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 274.43, "end": 327.76, "time_label": "4:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want to read a book again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to learn again i never..." } ] }, { "id": "the-reform-that-worked", "heading": "The Reform That Worked", "time_range": "05:27-15:04", "summary": "Jiang's 2008 reform replaces signaling with practice, then discovers that success is not enough.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "the-reform-that-worked-001", "text": "The autobiography gives the model teeth. In 2008, after Yale, Jiang is hired to build an international program in South China. The students are smart, but the preparation is hollow: regular Chinese classes, note-sticking, tests, SAT word lists, little reading or writing, and Model United Nations as undifferentiated application theater. The reform is practical. Seminars replace passive classes. Books replace word memorization. A student coffee house teaches service, collaboration, finance, and entrepreneurship. 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Transparency, innovation, and openness mean the curriculum is not perfect from above; it evolves by admitting mistakes and correcting them together. That is Jiang's definition of learning in practice. The system becomes effective, students do well, and the program becomes famous. Then the game answers back: he is fired, people are happy to see him go, and he is not allowed to run another program. The successful reformer is remembered not as visionary but as dictator, asshole, the man who insisted on fairness.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "marks": [ { "text": "admitting mistakes and correcting them together", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 598.3, "end": 680.02, "time_label": "9:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "i understand game theory and i says okay if you want to make this transition from the old system to the new system you also have to establish a new culture to allow these activities to flourish okay so my three major pr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the man who insisted on fairness", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 747.48, "end": 814.456, "time_label": "12:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "very similar to this, okay, but after that, after four years of doing this and being very successful at this, I was never allowed to set up another program again. No one wanted me to work in management again, okay? Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 814.456, "end": 904.11, "time_label": "13:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay? I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. And as you can imagine, that pissed off a lot of powerful people, because t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 598.3, "end": 680.02, "time_label": "9:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "i understand game theory and i says okay if you want to make this transition from the old system to the new system you also have to establish a new culture to allow these activities to flourish okay so my three major pr..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 680.02, "end": 747.48, "time_label": "11:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "of problems in beginning it became a very effective system after a semester or a year and not only that the students who went for this program did very well in life they went to Yale they want to they went to Wharton Co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 747.48, "end": 814.456, "time_label": "12:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "very similar to this, okay, but after that, after four years of doing this and being very successful at this, I was never allowed to set up another program again. No one wanted me to work in management again, okay? Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 814.456, "end": 904.11, "time_label": "13:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay? I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. 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I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. And as you can imagine, that pissed off a lot of powerful people, because t..." } ] }, { "id": "players-not-ideals", "heading": "Players, Not Ideals", "time_range": "15:04-23:35", "summary": "The lecture replaces school ideals with player incentives and power ranking.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "players-not-ideals-001", "text": "The mistake was thinking the players wanted the ideal version of their role. Students would love learning. Parents would want independent children. Teachers would love teaching. Government would want innovation. Colleges would want future leaders. That was the official story. The game-theory story is harsher: players want the best possible result with the least possible work.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "marks": [ { "text": "players want the best possible result with the least possible work", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1056.4, "end": 1117.84, "time_label": "17:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? And the easy answer is that in game theory, all the players, what they're motivated in is by achieving the best possible results. By doing the least amount of work possible. Okay? Just remember that. 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That tells you why or how they will behave the w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 971.77, "end": 1056.22, "time_label": "16:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right? Teachers. Well, teachers wanted to do a good job. Right? They want to teach students. They love teaching. They love students. They just want to be given the space and the opportunity to teach what their passi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1056.4, "end": 1117.84, "time_label": "17:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? And the easy answer is that in game theory, all the players, what they're motivated in is by achieving the best possible results. By doing the least amount of work possible. Okay? Just remember that. That's a prin..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "players-not-ideals-002", "text": "A game is built when players agree on the rules and incentives. Jiang came in as an outsider and built a game where students could thrive, but the stakeholders did not want his game because they did not control it. Ranking power matters. Students are numerous but weak. Parents matter because they pay and can make trouble. Teachers matter because they implement the rules. Administrators matter because they manage parent relationships. Government and colleges mostly care that the school does not disturb their own games.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Ranking power matters.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1224.36, "end": 1309.05, "time_label": "20:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "again, and objectively think about what the interests and motivations of each player are, and when their interests converge, that's the game they play. All right? So, you have students, parents, teachers, leaders, schoo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1309.17, "end": 1361.059, "time_label": "21:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? So, the most important are the parents. And you have the teachers. Why? Because the teachers are the ones who are implementing the rules of the game. Okay? The way that teachers behave determines how this game is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1167.25, "end": 1224.36, "time_label": "19:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? The government is like, you know what? I don't want innovation in this country, even though I say I want it, because I don't want problems in life. Okay? I just want things to just stay the way they are, and ever..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1224.36, "end": 1309.05, "time_label": "20:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "again, and objectively think about what the interests and motivations of each player are, and when their interests converge, that's the game they play. All right? So, you have students, parents, teachers, leaders, schoo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1309.17, "end": 1361.059, "time_label": "21:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? So, the most important are the parents. And you have the teachers. Why? Because the teachers are the ones who are implementing the rules of the game. Okay? The way that teachers behave determines how this game is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1361.059, "end": 1415.28, "time_label": "22:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, the costs don't really matter. They'll take anyone who's willing to pay. And the Ivy League? Yeah, everyone's in the Ivy League, but who do the Ivy League want? They want people who want to be successful in life. Ri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "players-not-ideals-003", "text": "Students are not in school mainly to learn. They are there to make friends, have fun, please parents and teachers, collect grades, and reach college. Grades therefore become social evidence: not proof that learning happened, but proof that the right people were pleased.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Students are not in school mainly to learn. They are there to make friends, have fun, please parents and teachers, collect grades, and reach college.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:education-game-forms-person", "lens-point:education-soul-game-atlas" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1416.12, "end": 1476.34, "time_label": "23:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right. So, let's look at students. Students, okay, I mean, they want to be popular. Right? So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are to learn. Their priority is to make friends and to be pop..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1545.23, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then you're like, have fun. Okay? And then get a good college. Okay? All right? So, am I missing anything among the students? All right. So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, pare..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:education-game-forms-person", "valid": true, "concept": "education-soul-game", "title": null, "doc_title": "Education As A Soul Game", "doc_slug": "lens/education-as-a-soul-game", "url": "/lens/education-as-a-soul-game/#education-game-forms-person", "text": "Education becomes a soul game when the school rewards pleasing parents, teachers, peers, administrators, colleges, and governments more reliably than learning; students then adapt to the rewarded game until the game helps decide what kind of person they become.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ] }, { "id": "lens-point:education-soul-game-atlas", "valid": true, "concept": "education-soul-game", "title": null, "doc_title": "Jiang Lens Atlas", "doc_slug": "lens", "url": "/lens/#education-soul-game-atlas", "text": "Education becomes a soul game when the school rewards pleasing parents, teachers, peers, administrators, colleges, and governments more reliably than learning; students then adapt to the rewarded game until the game helps decide what kind of person they become.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ] } ] }, { "text": "Grades therefore become social evidence", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1416.12, "end": 1476.34, "time_label": "23:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right. So, let's look at students. Students, okay, I mean, they want to be popular. Right? So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are to learn. Their priority is to make friends and to be pop..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1416.12, "end": 1476.34, "time_label": "23:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right. So, let's look at students. Students, okay, I mean, they want to be popular. Right? So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are to learn. Their priority is to make friends and to be pop..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1545.23, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then you're like, have fun. Okay? And then get a good college. Okay? All right? So, am I missing anything among the students? All right. So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, pare..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 904, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 814.456, "end": 904.11, "time_label": "13:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay? I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. And as you can imagine, that pissed off a lot of powerful people, because t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1224.36, "end": 1309.05, "time_label": "20:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "again, and objectively think about what the interests and motivations of each player are, and when their interests converge, that's the game they play. All right? So, you have students, parents, teachers, leaders, schoo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1416.12, "end": 1476.34, "time_label": "23:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right. So, let's look at students. Students, okay, I mean, they want to be popular. Right? So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are to learn. Their priority is to make friends and to be pop..." } ] }, { "id": "face-and-minimum-work", "heading": "Face, White Faces, Minimum Work", "time_range": "23:35-36:11", "summary": "Each player has a motive, and the motives converge into the surface of the modern international school.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "face-and-minimum-work-001", "text": "Parents want successful children, but success is not the same thing as learning or happiness. Success is face. The child at Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth, or the Ivy League becomes a status object for relatives, friends, and colleagues. International school becomes a luxury product. Its most important marketing tool is not curriculum but white faces. Ten white teachers are enough to make the school look real, whether or not the teachers are good or the children learn.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "marks": [ { "text": "International school becomes a luxury product", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1545.23, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then you're like, have fun. Okay? And then get a good college. Okay? All right? So, am I missing anything among the students? All right. So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, pare..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "time_label": "25:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? They have all the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Ten white teachers are enough to make the school look real", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "time_label": "25:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? They have all the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1545.23, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then you're like, have fun. Okay? And then get a good college. Okay? All right? So, am I missing anything among the students? All right. So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, pare..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "time_label": "25:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? They have all the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "face-and-minimum-work-002", "text": "Teachers and administrators are also playing ordinary life games. They have families, salaries, reputations, and limited energy. The rational move is to do enough, avoid trouble, and give parents what they want. Government's hidden demand is no problems now and compliant students later. Colleges want tuition. Once those incentives converge, the school surface is predictable: white faces, easy grades, a few scholarship students for marketing, lots of cheating, high turnover, stressed teachers, unhappy parents, indifferent students.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "marks": [ { "text": "no problems now and compliant students later", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1732.61, "time_label": "27:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "This is a job for them. They also just want to get by. Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible. They're not trying to change the world. They're not trying to educate students. They're just trying to g..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "white faces, easy grades, a few scholarship students for marketing, lots of cheating, high turnover", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2172.89, "end": 2257.31, "time_label": "36:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? Sorry. White faces. And they want successful kids, which means good grades. Okay? Teachers just want to get by and do as little work as possible. Administrators just want to protect relationship with parents. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2257.53, "end": 2309.37, "time_label": "37:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Just lots of white faces, lots of really nice buildings, lots of fancy activities, great marketing, beautiful website, really motivate admissions officers. Then you have easy grades where everyone gets an A, no matter w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1605.555, "end": 1676.73, "time_label": "26:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Then the teachers. Teachers are really simple. Because teachers do this job. And for them, the priority is to do as little work as possible to get by. Okay? I'm not saying all teachers. I'm saying the majority of teache..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1732.61, "time_label": "27:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "This is a job for them. They also just want to get by. Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible. They're not trying to change the world. They're not trying to educate students. They're just trying to g..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1732.61, "end": 1754.95, "time_label": "28:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Colleges, again, just want the money. Okay? That's all they care about. If you're willing to go to American college and pay, how much is it nowadays? Like $50,000, $100,000? A year? That's a lot of money, guys. Okay? If..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2172.89, "end": 2257.31, "time_label": "36:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? Sorry. White faces. And they want successful kids, which means good grades. Okay? Teachers just want to get by and do as little work as possible. Administrators just want to protect relationship with parents. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2257.53, "end": 2309.37, "time_label": "37:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Just lots of white faces, lots of really nice buildings, lots of fancy activities, great marketing, beautiful website, really motivate admissions officers. Then you have easy grades where everyone gets an A, no matter w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 1415, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1545.23, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then you're like, have fun. Okay? And then get a good college. Okay? All right? So, am I missing anything among the students? All right. So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, pare..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1732.61, "time_label": "27:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "This is a job for them. They also just want to get by. Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible. They're not trying to change the world. They're not trying to educate students. They're just trying to g..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2172.89, "end": 2257.31, "time_label": "36:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? Sorry. White faces. And they want successful kids, which means good grades. Okay? Teachers just want to get by and do as little work as possible. Administrators just want to protect relationship with parents. Okay..." } ] }, { "id": "superstructure-and-decline", "heading": "Why the Game Changed", "time_range": "29:20-36:11", "summary": "A student asks what caused the transformation, and Jiang answers through superstructure: energy, openness, and cohesion rise and fall.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "superstructure-and-decline-001", "text": "The student's question matters because it asks how the original mission became this game. Jiang's answer is superstructure: demographics, economy, politics, religion, and the life cycle of societies. Healthy societies have energy, openness, and cohesion. Energy means focused work. Openness means admitting mistakes and improving. Cohesion means seeing children as the community's future. Put those together and schools can be great; Finland and Jiang's memory of 1980s China become examples.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Healthy societies have energy, openness, and cohesion", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1916.87, "time_label": "30:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? That's energy. Okay? So openness just means that you want to learn, you want to grow. You're willing to admit you made a mistake and improve on yourself. Okay? And the last thing is cohesion, where..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1760.65, "end": 1769.95, "time_label": "29:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you mentioned that earlier, like the purpose of education are that three things, but now schools don't do that. So what caused the transformation?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1916.87, "time_label": "30:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? That's energy. Okay? So openness just means that you want to learn, you want to grow. You're willing to admit you made a mistake and improve on yourself. Okay? And the last thing is cohesion, where..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1917.82, "end": 1978.2, "time_label": "31:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? You pay them very well. You give them high status. And you give them a lot of autonomy and freedom because then they feel respected. And if you do that, the schools are great. And guess what, guys? In China, in m..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "superstructure-and-decline-002", "text": "Decline is not mysterious. Wealth, inequality, and corruption turn cohesion into individual competition: my kid must win even if every other kid loses. They kill openness because any admitted mistake can get an administrator destroyed by parents. They kill energy because good work only creates more demands. By 2025-2026, Jiang says, wealth can even make school success less necessary: parents can buy apartments and cars, so students become indifferent, and indifferent students make teachers indifferent.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "marks": [ { "text": "good work only creates more demands", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2043.54, "end": 2101.94, "time_label": "34:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Get out of here. You're incompetent. Okay? So you can be like the best person in the world, but if you make a mistake, the parents will come and kill you. But you can be the worst person in the world, but you're just hi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "indifferent students make teachers indifferent", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1978.4, "end": 2043.42, "time_label": "32:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But over time, what happens is all three decline. Why? Because there's more corruption. There's more inequality. There's more wealth. Okay? So what happens is wealth generation and inequality, corruption. And so people..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2043.54, "end": 2101.94, "time_label": "34:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Get out of here. You're incompetent. Okay? So you can be like the best person in the world, but if you make a mistake, the parents will come and kill you. But you can be the worst person in the world, but you're just hi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 1760, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1760.65, "end": 1769.95, "time_label": "29:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you mentioned that earlier, like the purpose of education are that three things, but now schools don't do that. So what caused the transformation?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." } ] }, { "id": "reform-inside-the-convergence", "heading": "Reform Without Playing God", "time_range": "36:11-48:37", "summary": "The ending generalizes the model: reform works only by moving players inside the convergence point, because everyone is playing multiple games and fears exile.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "reform-inside-the-convergence-001", "text": "The point is not 'schools suck, don't go to school.' The point is to analyze why they are the way they are. Different players form overlapping sets; their convergence point is the game. Reform is possible, but only within some acceptable part of that convergence. Jiang's 2008 mistake was trying to set up a new universe, make up the rules, and be God. Whatever new game you offer has to live close enough to the old one that players can accept it.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Reform is possible, but only within some acceptable part of that convergence", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2390.78, "end": 2454.85, "time_label": "39:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? Now, what's important for us to understand is that there is actually a lot of room to this convergence point. So, it's possible to do reform, but only within a subset of this convergence point. Okay? So, my proble..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "trying to set up a new universe, make up the rules, and be God", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2390.78, "end": 2454.85, "time_label": "39:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? Now, what's important for us to understand is that there is actually a lot of room to this convergence point. So, it's possible to do reform, but only within a subset of this convergence point. Okay? So, my proble..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2309.57, "end": 2389.83, "time_label": "38:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "If you don't like a teacher, just complain, and then the teacher has to change. And so now you have high turnover where teachers feel stressed out, and where parents are never happy, and where students don't care. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2390.78, "end": 2454.85, "time_label": "39:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? Now, what's important for us to understand is that there is actually a lot of room to this convergence point. So, it's possible to do reform, but only within a subset of this convergence point. Okay? So, my proble..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2454.97, "end": 2474.39, "time_label": "40:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? This slow incremental reform. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay, any questions before I conclude? Guys, ask questions. Was this clear? Yeah, you have a question?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "reform-inside-the-convergence-002", "text": "The final student question asks where stakeholder interests come from. The easy answer is culture and superstructure, but the deeper game-theory answer is multiple games. Parents are family members competing with siblings through money, children, spouse, and lifestyle. They are also colleagues trying to keep their children acceptable inside a network. If a child succeeds in a way that offends the group, the parent risks exile.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "marks": [ { "text": "If a child succeeds in a way that offends the group, the parent risks exile", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2571.413, "end": 2634.86, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's a game they're playing. All right? But they have colleagues. You have colleagues. And the game you're trying to play there is to get along with your colleagues because that's what ensures your success in life. Ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2480.75, "end": 2491.31, "time_label": "41:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, in the future, will we learn more about how do we find out what causes different stakeholders to have different interests? Like, in the future, it's like not really..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2571.413, "time_label": "41:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question. So, thank you for asking, okay? All right. So, the question is, where do the interests... of these different players come from? Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the supers..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2571.413, "end": 2634.86, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's a game they're playing. All right? But they have colleagues. You have colleagues. And the game you're trying to play there is to get along with your colleagues because that's what ensures your success in life. Ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "reform-inside-the-convergence-003", "text": "That is the social psychology of the game: try to beat the others, but do not anger them enough to get thrown out. Students learn the same structure. They play the school game, the friendship game, and the parent-pleasing game, and the least important one is actual learning. Game theory here is not about ideals. It is about what people do when the real reward structure teaches them what kind of person to become.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "marks": [ { "text": "try to beat the others, but do not anger them enough to get thrown out", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Game theory here is not about ideals", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2829.82, "end": 2903.4, "time_label": "47:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "according to the game and, and we are who we are is often determined by the nature of the game. Okay? So you can come into school wanting to learn, being creative and all that, but eventually you recognize that that's n..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the real reward structure teaches them what kind of person to become", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:education-game-forms-person", "lens-point:education-soul-game-atlas", "lens-point:formation-becomes-civilizational-capacity" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2829.82, "end": 2903.4, "time_label": "47:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "according to the game and, and we are who we are is often determined by the nature of the game. Okay? So you can come into school wanting to learn, being creative and all that, but eventually you recognize that that's n..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:education-game-forms-person", "valid": true, "concept": "education-soul-game", "title": null, "doc_title": "Education As A Soul Game", "doc_slug": "lens/education-as-a-soul-game", "url": "/lens/education-as-a-soul-game/#education-game-forms-person", "text": "Education becomes a soul game when the school rewards pleasing parents, teachers, peers, administrators, colleges, and governments more reliably than learning; students then adapt to the rewarded game until the game helps decide what kind of person they become.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ] }, { "id": "lens-point:education-soul-game-atlas", "valid": true, "concept": "education-soul-game", "title": null, "doc_title": "Jiang Lens Atlas", "doc_slug": "lens", "url": "/lens/#education-soul-game-atlas", "text": "Education becomes a soul game when the school rewards pleasing parents, teachers, peers, administrators, colleges, and governments more reliably than learning; students then adapt to the rewarded game until the game helps decide what kind of person they become.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ] }, { "id": "lens-point:formation-becomes-civilizational-capacity", "valid": true, "concept": "atlas-relation", "title": null, "doc_title": "Jiang Lens Atlas", "doc_slug": "lens", "url": "/lens/#formation-becomes-civilizational-capacity", "text": "Formation becomes civilizational capacity when the games that train persons either preserve energy, adaptability, practical judgment, and cohesion or reduce them into obedience, test performance, and controlled membership in a larger machine.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-ybufqry77pq@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-7k5xolzwmls@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-7k5xolzwmls@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-tquo1usc5nw@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "time_label": "45:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2771.16, "end": 2829.82, "time_label": "46:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And the game that you care the least about, that matters the least is actually doing well in school. Learning, learning in school. Okay? Does that make sense? 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So you can come into school wanting to learn, being creative and all that, but eventually you recognize that that's n..." } ] } ], "questions": [ { "question": "Was the coffee house like our campus coffee store?", "answer": "Jiang says it was similar in function, but in 2008 it was the first such activity he had seen in a Chinese high school. The point was not the coffee itself; it was that students ran a real business and learned collaboration, finance, service, and entrepreneurship by doing.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 504.12, "end": 542.94, "time_label": "8:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "coffee house in china in the chinese high school there are lots of coffee houses today when i was the first person to set up a coffee house students had to run a business they had to work as waiters and provide good ser..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 542.94, "end": 546.2, "time_label": "9:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "like the coffee in the west south store" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 546.66, "end": 598.3, "time_label": "9:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay um 2008 i was the first person to do anything okay oh okay okay just i mean like like yeah similar yeah all right so the coffee house was an activity i set up which was very successful it's still there today guys i..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says it was similar in function, but in 2008 it was the first such activity he had seen in a Chinese high school. The point was not the coffee itself; it was that students ran a real business and learned collaboration, finance, service, and entrepreneurship by doing.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 504.12, "end": 542.94, "time_label": "8:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "coffee house in china in the chinese high school there are lots of coffee houses today when i was the first person to set up a coffee house students had to run a business they had to work as waiters and provide good ser..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 542.94, "end": 546.2, "time_label": "9:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "like the coffee in the west south store" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 546.66, "end": 598.3, "time_label": "9:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay um 2008 i was the first person to do anything okay oh okay okay just i mean like like yeah similar yeah all right so the coffee house was an activity i set up which was very successful it's still there today guys i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "If education has those three purposes, what caused schools to stop doing them?", "answer": "Jiang answers through superstructure. Societies develop through energy, openness, and cohesion; when wealth, inequality, and corruption rise, those qualities decline. Parents become zero-sum, administrators hide from mistakes, students lose motivation, and teachers stop trying because the game no longer rewards learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1760.65, "end": 1769.95, "time_label": "29:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you mentioned that earlier, like the purpose of education are that three things, but now schools don't do that. So what caused the transformation?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1978.4, "end": 2043.42, "time_label": "32:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But over time, what happens is all three decline. Why? Because there's more corruption. There's more inequality. There's more wealth. Okay? So what happens is wealth generation and inequality, corruption. And so people..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang answers through superstructure. Societies develop through energy, openness, and cohesion; when wealth, inequality, and corruption rise, those qualities decline. Parents become zero-sum, administrators hide from mistakes, students lose motivation, and teachers stop trying because the game no longer rewards learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1760.65, "end": 1769.95, "time_label": "29:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you mentioned that earlier, like the purpose of education are that three things, but now schools don't do that. So what caused the transformation?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1978.4, "end": 2043.42, "time_label": "32:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But over time, what happens is all three decline. Why? Because there's more corruption. There's more inequality. There's more wealth. Okay? So what happens is wealth generation and inequality, corruption. And so people..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Will we learn how to find what causes different stakeholders to have different interests?", "answer": "Yes. Jiang says the easy answer is culture and superstructure, but game theory also asks what other games each player is playing. Parents are not just parents; they are siblings, colleagues, status competitors, and members of a group that can exile them. Their school choices come from those overlapping games.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2480.75, "end": 2491.31, "time_label": "41:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, in the future, will we learn more about how do we find out what causes different stakeholders to have different interests? Like, in the future, it's like not really..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2571.413, "time_label": "41:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question. So, thank you for asking, okay? All right. So, the question is, where do the interests... of these different players come from? Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the supers..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2571.413, "end": 2634.86, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's a game they're playing. All right? But they have colleagues. You have colleagues. And the game you're trying to play there is to get along with your colleagues because that's what ensures your success in life. Ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Yes. Jiang says the easy answer is culture and superstructure, but game theory also asks what other games each player is playing. Parents are not just parents; they are siblings, colleagues, status competitors, and members of a group that can exile them. Their school choices come from those overlapping games.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2480.75, "end": 2491.31, "time_label": "41:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, in the future, will we learn more about how do we find out what causes different stakeholders to have different interests? Like, in the future, it's like not really..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2571.413, "time_label": "41:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question. So, thank you for asking, okay? All right. So, the question is, where do the interests... of these different players come from? Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the supers..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2571.413, "end": 2634.86, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's a game they're playing. All right? But they have colleagues. You have colleagues. And the game you're trying to play there is to get along with your colleagues because that's what ensures your success in life. Ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] } ], "source_notes": [ { "text": "The transcript contains ASR artifacts around school names, 'SAT' word lists, 'Model United Nations,' and 'ostracism.' The read preserves the argument while normalizing obvious terms where context is clear.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 327.76, "end": 382.72, "time_label": "5:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in school so i was hired in 2008 to go to xinjiang in south china and help the school shouldn't middle school build in actual international program to send kids abroad okay so this 2008 which was a long time ago and bac..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 382.72, "end": 447.4, "time_label": "6:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "do is you take kids and you stick notes and you take tests you don't communicate you don't ask questions you don't debate okay so that's one problem another problem is that the students are spending all their time memor..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }, "transcript": [ { "id": "seg-0001", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "start": 0.24, "end": 62.5, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "okay so welcome back to game theory and um as i discussed last class our goal is able to is to use game theory to analyze global events to understand why they're happening as well as make certain predictions about how they should develop but to do that i first need to train your mind and how and how to see the world using game theory so last class in our first class we discussed example of the dating game of why men and women are motivated to behave the way they do when they look for a mate today i want to discuss the issue of school okay school so for the first few classes i'm going to use examples from your life that you know pretty well in order to develop the mindset for game theory so school is something that you should know very very well as you know the purpose of school is to train you", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-001", "start": 0.24, "end": 4.76, "text": "okay so welcome back to game theory and um as i discussed", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-002", "start": 4.76, "end": 8.96, "text": "last class our goal is able to is to use game theory", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-003", "start": 8.96, "end": 14.14, "text": "to analyze global events to understand why they're happening as well as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-004", "start": 14.14, "end": 17.55, "text": "make certain predictions about how they should develop but to do that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-005", "start": 17.55, "end": 21.53, "text": "i first need to train your mind and how and how to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-006", "start": 21.53, "end": 25.27, "text": "see the world using game theory so last class in our first", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-007", "start": 25.27, "end": 30.17, "text": "class we discussed example of the dating game of why men and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-008", "start": 30.17, "end": 36.07, "text": "women are motivated to behave the way they do when they look", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-009", "start": 36.07, "end": 40.11, "text": "for a mate today i want to discuss the issue of school", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-010", "start": 40.11, "end": 47.14, "text": "okay school so for the first few classes i'm going to use", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-011", "start": 47.14, "end": 51.96, "text": "examples from your life that you know pretty well in order to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-012", "start": 51.96, "end": 55.78, "text": "develop the mindset for game theory so school is something that you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-013", "start": 55.78, "end": 59.3, "text": "should know very very well as you know the purpose of school", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-014", "start": 59.3, "end": 62.5, "text": "is to train you", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "8dba042baac8ab7990b05fc9226365df8bf4d86b9c8734b7f444d1d23cc52fe8", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0001", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=0s", "time_label": "0:00", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0002", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "start": 62.5, "end": 139.72, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "in a way that allows you to be functional in society as well as to be creative right okay so the goals are basically literacy all right which means reading and writing this is the primary purpose of school because in order to function in our society you need to be able to absorb information and convey information okay number two is basically uh what we call the core competent core competencies right these are skills that you need to be successful in life including the ability ability to think critically to cooperate with others to collab to collaborate to communicate okay you you all know this the last thing is what we call lifelong learning so in the age of ai in the age of globalization it's just a start of the learning process because every five years the world changes so you need to be in a constant process a constant state of learning okay so you have", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-001", "start": 62.5, "end": 66.2, "text": "in a way that allows you to be functional in society as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-002", "start": 66.2, "end": 70.92, "text": "well as to be creative right okay so the goals are basically", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-003", "start": 70.92, "end": 77.82, "text": "literacy all right which means reading and writing this is the primary", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-004", "start": 77.82, "end": 83.33, "text": "purpose of school because in order to function in our society you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-005", "start": 83.33, "end": 89.96, "text": "need to be able to absorb information and convey information okay number", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-006", "start": 89.96, "end": 97.21, "text": "two is basically uh what we call the core competent core competencies", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-007", "start": 97.21, "end": 102.09, "text": "right these are skills that you need to be successful in life", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-008", "start": 102.09, "end": 109.3, "text": "including the ability ability to think critically to cooperate with others to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-009", "start": 109.75, "end": 114.8, "text": "collab to collaborate to communicate okay you you all know this the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-010", "start": 114.8, "end": 121.37, "text": "last thing is what we call lifelong learning so in the age", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-011", "start": 121.37, "end": 129.27, "text": "of ai in the age of globalization it's just a start of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-012", "start": 129.27, "end": 133.23, "text": "the learning process because every five years the world changes so you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-013", "start": 133.23, "end": 137.87, "text": "need to be in a constant process a constant state of learning", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-014", "start": 137.87, "end": 139.72, "text": "okay so you have", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "bb18b25cb725980f3dad66e6cf0f28d4a1714faefa70dbc56381b6f5d023cbd7", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0002", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=62s", "time_label": "1:02", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0003", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "start": 139.72, "end": 208.79, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "to like actually love learning and you have to like know how to learn for yourself so these are the three basic purposes of school and that's why you're at the school unfortunately what we know is that most schools i'm not saying all schools i'm saying that most schools are pretty bad at these three things in fact you can make the argument that most schools not only do not teach you these skills but they have the opposite effect in fact they make you hate learning okay so let's look at literacy today in most schools you're not required to read books in fact when you go to university the professors there are so shocked that you don't read books that instead they make you read paragraphs or watch videos okay so in terms of literacy around the world people are losing the capacity to read and to write and not only that but people's attention spans have", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-001", "start": 139.72, "end": 143.2, "text": "to like actually love learning and you have to like know how", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-002", "start": 143.2, "end": 149.08, "text": "to learn for yourself so these are the three basic purposes of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-003", "start": 149.08, "end": 153.86, "text": "school and that's why you're at the school unfortunately what we know", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-004", "start": 153.86, "end": 157.7, "text": "is that most schools i'm not saying all schools i'm saying that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-005", "start": 157.7, "end": 163.02, "text": "most schools are pretty bad at these three things in fact you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-006", "start": 163.02, "end": 168.46, "text": "can make the argument that most schools not only do not teach", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-007", "start": 168.46, "end": 173.02, "text": "you these skills but they have the opposite effect in fact they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-008", "start": 173.02, "end": 179.31, "text": "make you hate learning okay so let's look at literacy today in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-009", "start": 179.31, "end": 184.02, "text": "most schools you're not required to read books in fact when you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-010", "start": 184.02, "end": 188.02, "text": "go to university the professors there are so shocked that you don't", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-011", "start": 188.02, "end": 194.24, "text": "read books that instead they make you read paragraphs or watch videos", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-012", "start": 194.24, "end": 201.13, "text": "okay so in terms of literacy around the world people are losing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-013", "start": 201.13, "end": 207.01, "text": "the capacity to read and to write and not only that but", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-014", "start": 207.01, "end": 208.79, "text": "people's attention spans have", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "fa3bc516c3776b297d8d1179b76b2055cb51a96005a9755cb504c2b563a91d79", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0003", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=139s", "time_label": "2:19", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0004", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "start": 208.79, "end": 274.43, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity critical thinking skills collaboration but doesn't do that look at collaboration in school it's a competition where you believe that it's a zero -sum game so for you to get ahead you need school over your classmate so class ranking is very important so that's kind of odd okay and the last thing of course is lifelong learning where school teaches you to hate school and therefore teaches you how to hate learning especially in china okay especially in china where you work hard until the national entrance examination at age 18 and then after the exam examination ends what do you do you burn your books that's a great ceremony here in china right after the examination you take your books you rip", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-001", "start": 208.79, "end": 213.67, "text": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-002", "start": 213.67, "end": 219.7, "text": "lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-003", "start": 219.7, "end": 225.36, "text": "one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-004", "start": 225.36, "end": 230.52, "text": "critical thinking skills collaboration but doesn't do that look at collaboration in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-005", "start": 230.52, "end": 235.44, "text": "school it's a competition where you believe that it's a zero -sum", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-006", "start": 235.44, "end": 239.02, "text": "game so for you to get ahead you need school over your", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-007", "start": 239.02, "end": 244.76, "text": "classmate so class ranking is very important so that's kind of odd", "word_count": 12 }, { 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"start": 273.57, "end": 274.43, "text": "your books you rip", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "427f94a3930b063fce26b6c34dc16f9a2a85de5a845b2a32c79a4e58734cab2d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0004", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=208s", "time_label": "3:28", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0005", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "start": 274.43, "end": 327.76, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want to read a book again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to learn again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to get okay so around the world most schools not all schools there are there are some really good schools out there but most schools are failing in their mission school sucks and so the question for us today is why is this the case and so we're going to use game theory to analyze why this is the case all right so what i'm going to do now is i'm going to tell you a story about myself so the year is 2008 i went to yale college okay in the united states and i was an english major i did very well", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-001", "start": 274.43, "end": 277.23, "text": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-002", "start": 277.23, "end": 280.95, "text": "signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-003", "start": 280.95, "end": 283.17, "text": "to read a book again i never ever want to take a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-004", "start": 283.17, "end": 284.67, "text": "test again i never want to learn again i never ever want", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-005", "start": 284.67, "end": 286.73, "text": "to take a test again i never want to get okay so", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-006", "start": 286.73, "end": 292.56, "text": "around the world most schools not all schools there are there are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-007", "start": 292.56, "end": 297.44, "text": "some really good schools out there but most schools are failing in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-008", "start": 297.44, "end": 301.96, "text": "their mission school sucks and so the question for us today is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-009", "start": 301.96, "end": 306.68, "text": "why is this the case and so we're going to use game", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-010", "start": 306.68, "end": 313.78, "text": "theory to analyze why this is the case all right so what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-011", "start": 315.89, "end": 317.73, "text": "i'm going to do now is i'm going to tell you a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-012", "start": 317.73, "end": 323.42, "text": "story about myself so the year is 2008 i went to yale", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-013", "start": 323.42, "end": 327.04, "text": "college okay in the united states and i was an english major", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-014", "start": 327.04, "end": 327.76, "text": "i did very well", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "2856e0f44b2e52734ab8ee58b91c0ea41c3a671be0b008a0f561e9a4c06ed6e3", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0005", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=274s", "time_label": "4:34", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0006", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "start": 327.76, "end": 382.72, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "in school so i was hired in 2008 to go to xinjiang in south china and help the school shouldn't middle school build in actual international program to send kids abroad okay so this 2008 which was a long time ago and back then not that many students wanted to go abroad there were really few international schools so the first thing i did was i went to yale college and i did was i looked at the situation at the school okay and this and this this is what i found okay i found that students even though they're going abroad maybe about 10 percent of the students were planning to go abroad so that's about 80 students each year that's a lot but the way they were going about the process of studying abroad was problematic okay so first of all all they were doing was taking regular chinese classes and you know in chinese classes all you", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-001", "start": 327.76, "end": 332.37, "text": "in school so i was hired in 2008 to go to xinjiang", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": 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"text_sha256": "ed10eb792ba680dc3a33f2b5ebb26fabb5889f6cd70db4a4cfa9f94e1c61221d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0006", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=327s", "time_label": "5:27", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0007", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "start": 382.72, "end": 447.4, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "do is you take kids and you stick notes and you take tests you don't communicate you don't ask questions you don't debate okay so that's one problem another problem is that the students are spending all their time memorizing s t word lists okay they were not reading they were not writing they were just memorizing words and the other thing that they did to make their applications look good is model united nations okay and that's fine maybe some of you are modeling united nations and that's a 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shenzhen middle school you will see the coffee house still there a long long time after i i went away the other thing i did was something called the daily newspaper and this was the first daily newspaper in china in a high school and probably maybe even two years ago but it was a newspaper where students every day had to report collect information write articles edit and publish it and they worked until like midnight sometimes until 2 a.m and then at 7 a.m they had to get up and um deliver the newspaper to all the students and these were two very successful activities and um so", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-001", "start": 546.66, "end": 551.02, "text": "okay um 2008 i was the first person to do anything okay", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-002", "start": 551.02, "end": 556.1, "text": "oh okay okay just i mean like like yeah similar yeah all", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-003", "start": 556.1, "end": 558.96, "text": "right so 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"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=546s", "time_label": "9:06", "tags": [ "exchange", "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0012", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "start": 598.3, "end": 680.02, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "i understand game theory and i says okay if you want to make this transition from the old system to the new system you also have to establish a new culture to allow these activities to flourish okay so my three major principles were um transparency um innovation okay transparency um innovation openness and so my idea was this rather than set up a curriculum that was perfect it would be a curriculum that would evolve over time we would learn mistakes together we would admit these mistakes and then we would correct them together and that's what learning is okay so the idea of transparency also I made changes all the time which created some chaos but it's a time for us to reflect and to be resilient now it's very 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about everything that I was doing and this and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-013", "start": 676.22, "end": 679.52, "text": "so this system in a very short amount of time even though", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-014", "start": 679.52, "end": 680.02, "text": "it was a lot", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "cfe798cbcccf9ddb4b01142e0757cde6a381daaaddc9243fce197da52d6a3901", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0012", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=598s", "time_label": "9:58", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0013", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "start": 680.02, "end": 747.48, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "of problems in beginning it became a very effective system after a semester or a year and not only that the students who went for this program did very well in life they went to Yale they want to they went to Wharton Cornell and this program actually in school became the most famous program in South China and when our students had the best record of college admissions in South China okay so this sounds great right okay the problem is this the problem is what happened after I established a program the first one that happened was okay I was fired they said get out of here okay second of all the teachers the parents the students were all happy to see me go they were like get out of here we never want to see you again the third thing that happened was I I did come to Beijing and set up a new program that was", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-001", "start": 680.02, "end": 685.42, "text": "of problems in beginning it became a very effective system after a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-002", "start": 685.42, "end": 690.05, "text": "semester or a year and not only that the students who went", "word_count": 12 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"end": 728.07, "text": "that happened was okay I was fired they said get out of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-010", "start": 728.07, "end": 736.14, "text": "here okay second of all the teachers the parents the students were", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-011", "start": 736.14, "end": 740.06, "text": "all happy to see me go they were like get out of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-012", "start": 740.06, "end": 743.25, "text": "here we never want to see you again the third thing that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-013", "start": 743.25, "end": 746.38, "text": "happened was I I did come to Beijing and set up a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-014", "start": 746.38, "end": 747.48, "text": "new program that was", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "19b37af4a4b1c65aec02f62e24daedc47629894572609b55dffbd3ab26204d40", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0013", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=680s", "time_label": "11:20", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0014", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "start": 747.48, "end": 814.456, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "very similar to this, okay, but after that, after four years of doing this and being very successful at this, I was never allowed to set up another program again. No one wanted me to work in management again, okay? Okay, so even though I was successful, even though I worked really hard, even though I was innovative, even though I set up really the best study abroad program in all of China, I was the first, everyone else copied me afterwards, I was fired, no one wanted me to stay, and I was not allowed to do this ever again. Why, okay? Well, the reason is this. When I was doing this, the word that everyone used to describe me was nobody. Not reformer, not visionary, not idealist, not dreamer, but dictator, okay? Or another word that they used that was more common was, this guy's an asshole, okay? This guy's a complete asshole. Why?", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-001", "start": 747.48, "end": 749.24, "text": "very similar to this, okay,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-002", "start": 749.34, "end": 752.26, "text": "but after that, after four years of doing this and being very", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-003", "start": 752.26, "end": 756.78, "text": "successful at this, I was never allowed to set up another program", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-004", "start": 756.78, "end": 759.76, "text": "again. No one wanted me to work in management again,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-005", "start": 760.1, "end": 763.64, "text": "okay? Okay, so even though I was successful,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-006", "start": 763.72, "end": 764.88, "text": "even though I worked really hard,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-007", "start": 765.04, "end": 766.2, "text": "even though I was innovative,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-008", "start": 766.52, "end": 770.36, "text": "even though I set up really the best study abroad program in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-009", "start": 770.36, "end": 772.18, "text": "all of China, I was the first,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-010", "start": 772.3, "end": 773.58, "text": "everyone else copied me afterwards,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-011", "start": 773.98, "end": 778.26, "text": "I was fired, no one wanted me to stay,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-012", "start": 778.52, "end": 780.56, "text": "and I was not allowed to do this ever again.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-013", "start": 781.35, "end": 782.65, "text": "Why, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-014", "start": 782.87, "end": 785.03, "text": "Well, the reason is this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-015", "start": 786.46, "end": 788.08, "text": "When I was doing this,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-016", "start": 788.2, "end": 793, "text": "the word that everyone used to describe me was nobody.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-017", "start": 793.02, "end": 797.3, "text": "Not reformer, not visionary, not idealist,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-018", "start": 797.48, "end": 801.86, "text": "not dreamer, but dictator, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-019", "start": 804.37, "end": 809.67, "text": "Or another word that they used that was more common was,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-020", "start": 809.81, "end": 811.31, "text": "this guy's an asshole, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-021", "start": 811.51, "end": 813.13, "text": "This guy's a complete asshole.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-022", "start": 813.88, "end": 814.456, "text": "Why?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "b0c07161006cb09c8a9d56a4ad2dae521247fb65fd6bc7d8f59f62beb09c708e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0014", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=747s", "time_label": "12:27", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0015", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "start": 814.456, "end": 904.11, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay? I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. And as you can imagine, that pissed off a lot of powerful people, because that's not how the game is played in China, okay? It's actually not the game, how this game is played anywhere in the world. The game is not fair. The game is established by stakeholders, and they play the game according to their interests, okay? So, let's go over what happened, all right? Okay. So, I understand that there are stakeholders. And the stakeholders in game theory are just the players, okay? The players. And who are the players? Well, you have the students. You have the parents. You have the teachers. You have the administrators, okay? The school leaders. You have the government, okay? And then you have the colleges. Okay? The colleges are the U.S. colleges where I'm trying to send my students.", "word_count": 169, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-001", "start": 814.456, "end": 818.84, "text": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-002", "start": 820.73, "end": 822.17, "text": "I don't care who you are.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-003", "start": 822.94, "end": 825.55, "text": "I don't care who your parents are.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-004", "start": 825.81, "end": 827.34, "text": "I want...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-005", "start": 827.46, "end": 830.68, "text": "I want you to work hard and learn.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-006", "start": 830.98, "end": 832.14, "text": "And as you can imagine,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-007", "start": 832.4, "end": 835, "text": "that pissed off a lot of powerful people,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-008", "start": 835.14, "end": 836.8, "text": "because that's not how the game is played in China,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-009", "start": 837, "end": 838.7, "text": "okay? It's actually not the game,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-010", "start": 838.74, "end": 840.3, "text": "how this game is played anywhere in the world.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-011", "start": 840.74, "end": 841.66, "text": "The game is not fair.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-012", "start": 842, "end": 844.4, "text": "The game is established by stakeholders,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-013", "start": 844.86, "end": 848.26, "text": "and they play the game according to their interests,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-014", "start": 848.52, "end": 854.95, "text": "okay? So, let's go over what happened,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-015", "start": 855.07, "end": 855.85, "text": "all right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-016", "start": 857.16, "end": 861.06, "text": "Okay. So, I understand that there are stakeholders.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-017", "start": 863.63, "end": 866.83, "text": "And the stakeholders in game theory are just the players,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-018", "start": 866.99, "end": 871.95, "text": "okay? The players.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-019", "start": 872.35, "end": 873.41, "text": "And who are the players?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-020", "start": 873.59, "end": 874.65, "text": "Well, you have the students.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-021", "start": 879.14, "end": 880.5, "text": "You have the parents.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-022", "start": 882.15, "end": 886.18, "text": "You have the teachers.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-023", "start": 888.15, "end": 892.37, "text": "You have the administrators, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-024", "start": 892.37, "end": 892.89, "text": "The school leaders.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-025", "start": 894.46, "end": 897.36, "text": "You have the government, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-026", "start": 898.99, "end": 900.91, "text": "And then you have the colleges.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-027", "start": 901.11, "end": 902.73, "text": "Okay? The colleges are the U.S.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-028", "start": 902.73, "end": 903.47, "text": "colleges where I'm", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-029", "start": 903.47, "end": 904.11, "text": "trying to send my students.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "494c6edde69a274546fc4968bf0a00275041856599f9f726b1419c733892f28e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0015", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=814s", "time_label": "13:34", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0016", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "start": 904.47, "end": 970.25, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Okay? So, these are the players in the game. And if you want to understand game theory, you need to understand the motivations and interests of all the different players. That tells you why or how they will behave the way they do. Okay? So, here is my original understanding of the players, which was clearly wrong, okay? Because I got fired. All right? So, the students. The students wanted to, like, love to learn. Get into Ivy League. And be the best. Okay? So, I thought the students, what their motivation was to be the best possible person. To work hard. To love learning. To be famous. To get into Ivy League. Okay? Clearly, this is wrong, okay? But I'm saying back then what my thinking was. The parents. Well, the parents wanted successful kids who were independent. Okay? Independent. And they wanted face, right? So, they wanted their kids. To get into the Ivy League.", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-001", "start": 904.47, "end": 906.71, "text": "Okay? 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So, here is my original understanding of the players,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-007", "start": 922.55, "end": 923.85, "text": "which was clearly wrong, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-008", "start": 923.95, "end": 924.75, "text": "Because I got fired.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-009", "start": 925.19, "end": 925.77, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-010", "start": 925.83, "end": 926.57, "text": "So, the students.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-011", "start": 926.71, "end": 927.95, "text": "The students wanted to, like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-012", "start": 927.97, "end": 929.47, "text": "love to learn.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-013", "start": 931.87, "end": 933.07, "text": "Get into Ivy League.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-014", "start": 933.47, "end": 938.58, "text": "And be the best.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-015", "start": 939, "end": 941.13, "text": "Okay? So, I thought the students,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-016", "start": 941.19, "end": 944.77, "text": "what their motivation was to be the best possible person.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-017", "start": 945.15, "end": 946.41, "text": "To work hard.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-018", "start": 946.49, "end": 947.51, "text": "To love learning.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-019", "start": 947.91, "end": 948.91, "text": "To be famous.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-020", "start": 949.07, "end": 949.67, "text": "To get into Ivy League.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-021", "start": 949.73, "end": 951.6, "text": "Okay? Clearly, this is wrong,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-022", "start": 951.7, "end": 953.62, "text": "okay? 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Teachers. Well, teachers wanted to do a good job. Right? They want to teach students. They love teaching. They love students. They just want to be given the space and the opportunity to teach what their passion is. Okay? Administrators. Administrators. I really didn't like administrators. So, I just thought they were just, they just wanted good results. Okay? That's all. Good results. As long as they provide, as long as they provide good results, they're happy. Okay? The government, they wanted innovation. They wanted good workers. They wanted, you know, they want technology. Okay? They wanted a strong China. Colleges wanted the best possible potential. Okay? They wanted students who would be the leaders of the future. Okay? So, 2008, when I set up the program. This is my assumptions about who the players were and what motivated them. Okay? Clearly, clearly, I was wrong about who they were. Okay? So, let's go over, let's now do an analysis of what they really, really want.", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-001", "start": 971.77, "end": 972.37, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-002", "start": 972.81, "end": 978.52, "text": "Teachers. Well, teachers wanted to do a good job.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-003", "start": 978.74, "end": 984.42, "text": "Right? 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The government, they wanted innovation.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-018", "start": 1010.42, "end": 1012.56, "text": "They wanted good workers.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-019", "start": 1017, "end": 1020.14, "text": "They wanted, you know, they want technology.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-020", "start": 1020.88, "end": 1022.46, "text": "Okay? They wanted a strong China.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-021", "start": 1025, "end": 1030.46, "text": "Colleges wanted the best possible potential.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-022", "start": 1032.39, "end": 1036.32, "text": "Okay? They wanted students who would be the leaders of the future.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-023", "start": 1036.48, "end": 1039.44, "text": "Okay? So, 2008, when I set up the program.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-024", "start": 1039.44, "end": 1043.44, "text": "This is my assumptions about who the players were and what motivated", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-025", "start": 1043.44, "end": 1043.84, "text": "them. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-026", "start": 1045.36, "end": 1049.64, "text": "Clearly, clearly, I was wrong about who they were.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-027", "start": 1049.78, "end": 1051.62, "text": "Okay? So, let's go over,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-028", "start": 1051.82, "end": 1052.74, "text": "let's", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-029", "start": 1052.74, "end": 1055.54, "text": "now do an analysis of what they really,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-030", "start": 1055.6, "end": 1056.22, "text": "really want.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "55548d1e7cccc4feebba39cf0b608d4a0b99cf1d955e1c035b64ad698ee9a7ff", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0017", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=971s", "time_label": "16:11", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0018", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "start": 1056.4, "end": 1117.84, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Okay? And the easy answer is that in game theory, all the players, what they're motivated in is by achieving the best possible results. By doing the least amount of work possible. Okay? Just remember that. That's a principle here. Everyone wants to achieve the best results by doing the least amount of work possible. People are lazy and people are greedy. It's that simple, guys. Okay? So, students, they want to get in the Ivy League, but they didn't want to work hard to get in the Ivy League. They wanted to do as little work as possible. And if it meant... They had to work hard to get in the Ivy League, they were like, I don't want to get in the Ivy League then. I'll just get into another school. Because who cares? Okay? The best possible result, least possible work. Parents are like, yeah, I can have my kid work hard, but what's important is for me to control my kid.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-001", "start": 1056.4, "end": 1063.29, "text": "Okay? And the easy answer is that in game theory,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-002", "start": 1063.53, "end": 1068.43, "text": "all the players, what they're motivated in is by achieving the best", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-003", "start": 1068.43, "end": 1069.33, "text": "possible results.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-004", "start": 1070.18, "end": 1074.14, "text": "By doing the least amount of work possible.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-005", "start": 1074.81, "end": 1076.31, "text": "Okay? Just remember that.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-006", "start": 1076.41, "end": 1077.23, "text": "That's a principle here.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-007", "start": 1077.87, "end": 1082.21, "text": "Everyone wants to achieve the best results by doing the least amount", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-008", "start": 1082.21, "end": 1083.45, "text": "of work possible.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-009", "start": 1083.59, "end": 1085.45, "text": "People are lazy and people are greedy.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-010", "start": 1085.95, "end": 1087.07, "text": "It's that simple, guys.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-011", "start": 1087.65, "end": 1091.51, "text": "Okay? So, students, they want to get in the Ivy League,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-012", "start": 1091.69, "end": 1094.41, "text": "but they didn't want to work hard to get in the Ivy", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-013", "start": 1094.41, "end": 1097.2, "text": "League. They wanted to do as little work as possible.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-014", "start": 1097.42, "end": 1099.42, "text": "And if it meant...", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-015", "start": 1099.42, "end": 1103.96, "text": "They had to work hard to get in the Ivy League,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-016", "start": 1104.06, "end": 1105.86, "text": "they were like, I don't want to get in the Ivy League", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-017", "start": 1105.86, "end": 1107.44, "text": "then. I'll just get into another school.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-018", "start": 1107.6, "end": 1108.36, "text": "Because who cares?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-019", "start": 1108.58, "end": 1109.84, "text": "Okay? The best possible result,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-020", "start": 1109.94, "end": 1110.68, "text": "least possible work.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-021", "start": 1111.84, "end": 1114.26, "text": "Parents are like, yeah, I can", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-022", "start": 1114.26, "end": 1115.26, "text": "have my kid work hard,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-023", "start": 1115.5, "end": 1117.84, "text": "but what's important is for me to control my kid.", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "077fc56d746190f2075c8f8149e01033a14fa885f8096b153d7e24daa3b422e5", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0018", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1056s", "time_label": "17:36", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0019", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "start": 1118.44, "end": 1166.51, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Right? Because only I know how to ensure my kid succeeds, so I don't want my kids to think critically or be independent. I want my kids to obey me. Now, teachers are like, listen, this is a job, man. Okay? I have kids. I don't want to work hard. I just want to come to school, do what I'm supposed to do, do what is minimally required me to collect my salary, and then go home. I don't want to teach my passion, because I don't have any passion. Okay? Administrators are like, oh my God, what's important is for me to make sure the powerful parents are happy. I don't care about everyone else. I don't care about poor parents. I don't care about... I don't care about middle -class parents. As long as the parents who are powerful are happy, I can keep my job.", "word_count": 148, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-001", "start": 1118.44, "end": 1122.64, "text": "Right? Because only I know how to ensure my kid succeeds,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-002", "start": 1122.92, "end": 1127.66, "text": "so I don't want my kids to think critically or be independent.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-003", "start": 1127.92, "end": 1129.56, "text": "I want my kids to obey me.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-004", "start": 1130.31, "end": 1132.89, "text": "Now, teachers are like, listen,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-005", "start": 1133.22, "end": 1134.1, "text": "this is a job, man.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-006", "start": 1134.3, "end": 1135.1, "text": "Okay? I have kids.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-007", "start": 1135.82, "end": 1137.14, "text": "I don't want to work hard.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-008", "start": 1137.28, "end": 1138.76, "text": "I just want to come to school,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-009", "start": 1139.04, "end": 1140.22, "text": "do what I'm supposed to do,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-010", "start": 1140.42, "end": 1142.94, "text": "do what is minimally required me to collect my salary,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-011", "start": 1143, "end": 1143.62, "text": "and then go home.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-012", "start": 1143.72, "end": 1145.62, "text": "I don't want to teach my passion,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-013", "start": 1145.72, "end": 1146.84, "text": "because I don't have any passion.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-014", "start": 1148.07, "end": 1150.79, "text": "Okay? Administrators are like, oh my God,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-015", "start": 1151.09, "end": 1155.11, "text": "what's important is for me to make sure the powerful parents are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-016", "start": 1155.11, "end": 1157.15, "text": "happy. 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The government is like, you know what? I don't want innovation in this country, even though I say I want it, because I don't want problems in life. Okay? I just want things to just stay the way they are, and everyone's happy. Okay? So, now we understand what happened. All right? All right. So, now what I will show you is this. I will show you how a game is constructed. A game is constructed when all the different players agree on the rules and the incentives of the game. All right? I was an outsider. I was not a player. I came in to construct a game in which I felt that students would thrive, and they did thrive. But that's not what they want. Okay? They want to have control over the game, and if they lose control, well, they call you, the outsider, an asshole. Okay? All right? So, let's do this", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-001", "start": 1167.25, "end": 1169.48, "text": "Right? The government is like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-002", "start": 1169.64, "end": 1170.48, "text": "you know what?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-003", "start": 1170.64, "end": 1172.52, "text": "I don't want innovation in this country,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-004", "start": 1172.58, "end": 1173.94, "text": "even though I say I want it,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-005", "start": 1174.06, "end": 1175.6, "text": "because I don't want problems in life.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-006", "start": 1175.78, "end": 1179.02, "text": "Okay? I just want things to just stay the way they are,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-007", "start": 1179.18, "end": 1181.04, "text": "and everyone's happy.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-008", "start": 1182.54, "end": 1185.68, "text": "Okay? So, now we understand what happened.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-009", "start": 1186.06, "end": 1186.64, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-010", "start": 1187.2, "end": 1187.58, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-011", "start": 1187.6, "end": 1190.16, "text": "So, now what I will show you is this.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-012", "start": 1190.62, "end": 1193.04, "text": "I will show you how a game is constructed.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-013", "start": 1193.26, "end": 1198, "text": "A game is constructed when all the different players agree on the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-014", "start": 1198, "end": 1200.28, "text": "rules and the incentives of the game.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-015", "start": 1201.28, "end": 1201.9, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-016", "start": 1202.63, "end": 1203.77, "text": "I was an outsider.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-017", "start": 1204.11, "end": 1204.95, "text": "I was not a player.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-018", "start": 1205.01, "end": 1207.65, "text": "I came in to construct a game in which I felt that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-019", "start": 1207.65, "end": 1209.27, "text": "students would thrive, and they did thrive.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-020", "start": 1209.93, "end": 1211.01, "text": "But that's not what they want.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-021", "start": 1211.74, "end": 1214.6, "text": "Okay? 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All right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-026", "start": 1221.94, "end": 1224.36, "text": "So, let's do this", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "7fed43062297564cbc8dfefcabab66da98c9606f2c5331bd5686bbd97a3f777d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0020", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1167s", "time_label": "19:27", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0021", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "start": 1224.36, "end": 1309.05, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "again, and objectively think about what the interests and motivations of each player are, and when their interests converge, that's the game they play. All right? So, you have students, parents, teachers, leaders, school administrators, and then the colleges. Okay? Another thing that you have to do in game theory that's very important is, you have to rank the power of each player. You have a question? The government? Excuse me? The government. Yes. Sorry. You're right. I forgot about the government. Okay? And the government. Okay. Another thing that you have to do in game theory is you have to rank the importance of the players. Okay? So, not all players are equal. So, in this game theory, even though there are students, and students are the majority, students actually don't matter. Okay? What students actually think and want don't actually matter. 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Another thing that you have to do in game theory that's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-008", "start": 1259.42, "end": 1264.92, "text": "very important is, you have to rank the power of each player.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-009", "start": 1265.68, "end": 1266.78, "text": "You have a question?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-010", "start": 1267.02, "end": 1267.8, "text": "The government?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-011", "start": 1268.28, "end": 1268.8, "text": "Excuse me?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-012", "start": 1269.24, "end": 1269.94, "text": "The government.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-013", "start": 1270.12, "end": 1270.86, "text": "Yes. Sorry.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-014", "start": 1271.38, "end": 1272.1, "text": "You're right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-015", "start": 1272.22, "end": 1273.44, "text": "I forgot about the government.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-016", "start": 1274.82, "end": 1275.84, "text": "Okay? And the government.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-017", "start": 1277.79, "end": 1281.15, "text": "Okay. Another thing that you have to do in game theory is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-018", "start": 1281.15, "end": 1284.19, "text": "you have to rank the importance of the players.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-019", "start": 1284.55, "end": 1286.11, "text": "Okay? So, not all players are equal.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-020", "start": 1286.71, "end": 1288.15, "text": "So, in this game theory,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-021", "start": 1288.31, "end": 1289.13, "text": "even though there are students,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-022", "start": 1289.31, "end": 1290.97, "text": "and students are the majority,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-023", "start": 1291.41, "end": 1292.45, "text": "students actually don't matter.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-024", "start": 1293.24, "end": 1297.94, "text": "Okay? What students actually think and want don't actually matter.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-025", "start": 1298.26, "end": 1301.92, "text": "What matters, of course, are the parents,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-026", "start": 1302.1, "end": 1305.83, "text": "because the parents pay to play in this game,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-027", "start": 1305.97, "end": 1306.21, "text": "and", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-028", "start": 1306.21, "end": 1308.67, "text": "parents can cause a lot of problems if they don't get what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-029", "start": 1308.67, "end": 1309.05, "text": "they want.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "d9a4e13878a23a0c2271a4393c75d390b9c8f33106d79aed8ca485b3e0c0b754", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0021", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1224s", "time_label": "20:24", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0022", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "start": 1309.17, "end": 1361.059, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Okay? So, the most important are the parents. And you have the teachers. Why? Because the teachers are the ones who are implementing the rules of the game. Okay? The way that teachers behave determines how this game is played. And then... If these two are the most important, okay, then maybe you have administrators as well. But they're not as important as the parents and the teachers. The government doesn't really matter because they don't really care. Right? It's one school among thousands. Who cares what the school does as long as it doesn't cause me any problems. The colleges don't care either. They say they want really passionate students who are curious, who are magically from China. They don't care. Okay? For them, it's just business. They just want students who are willing to pay money to get a crappy education in America. All right?", "word_count": 147, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-001", "start": 1309.17, "end": 1310.55, "text": "Okay? So, the most important are the parents.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-002", "start": 1310.73, "end": 1311.65, "text": "And you have the teachers.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-003", "start": 1312.19, "end": 1315.41, "text": "Why? Because the teachers are the ones who are implementing the rules", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-004", "start": 1315.41, "end": 1316.07, "text": "of the game.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-005", "start": 1316.67, "end": 1321.05, "text": "Okay? 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For them, it's just business.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-019", "start": 1354.96, "end": 1358.18, "text": "They just want students who are willing to pay money to get", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-020", "start": 1358.18, "end": 1359.16, "text": "a crappy education in America.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-021", "start": 1360.43, "end": 1360.83, "text": "All", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-022", "start": 1360.83, "end": 1361.059, "text": "right?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "2d63d8f2fded2b8ff77e1a813a5176cae009855e00160d0522503bfc00d86223", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0022", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1309s", "time_label": "21:49", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0023", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "start": 1361.059, "end": 1415.28, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So, the costs don't really matter. They'll take anyone who's willing to pay. And the Ivy League? Yeah, everyone's in the Ivy League, but who do the Ivy League want? They want people who want to be successful in life. Right? And who are these people? Not the best students. These are people from powerful families. Okay? So, this game is rigged. Right? They have all this talk about, you know, we want the best motivated students. We want students who are curious, who are passionate. It's all nonsense. Okay? That's not how the game is played. So, the costs don't really matter either. Okay? So, these are the three major players. The parents, the teachers, administrators, students, government, colleges. They are in this game. They don't really matter. So, now what we're going to do is we'll analyze the mentality, the worldview, the interests of each player. Okay? And again, once you do that, once we figure out where they converge, then we know how the game is constructed.", "word_count": 170, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-001", "start": 1361.059, "end": 1362.43, "text": "So, the costs don't really matter.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-002", "start": 1362.61, "end": 1364.55, "text": "They'll take anyone who's willing to pay.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-003", "start": 1366.6, "end": 1367.6, "text": "And the Ivy League?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-004", "start": 1367.88, "end": 1369.3, "text": "Yeah, everyone's in the Ivy League,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-005", "start": 1369.44, "end": 1370.94, "text": "but who do the Ivy League want?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-006", "start": 1371.12, "end": 1374.16, "text": "They want people who want to be successful in life.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-007", "start": 1374.28, "end": 1375.42, "text": "Right? And who are these people?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-008", "start": 1375.62, "end": 1376.56, "text": "Not the best students.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-009", "start": 1376.78, "end": 1378.38, "text": "These are people from powerful families.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-010", "start": 1379.24, "end": 1380.56, "text": "Okay? So, this game is rigged.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-011", "start": 1380.6, "end": 1382.9, "text": "Right? They have all this talk about,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-012", "start": 1382.98, "end": 1385.36, "text": "you know, we want the best motivated students.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-013", "start": 1385.38, "end": 1387.14, "text": "We want students who are curious,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-014", "start": 1387.24, "end": 1387.6, "text": "who are passionate.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-015", "start": 1387.7, "end": 1388.36, "text": "It's all nonsense.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-016", "start": 1388.7, "end": 1389.98, "text": "Okay? That's not how the game is played.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-017", "start": 1390.18, "end": 1391.4, "text": "So, the costs don't really matter either.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-018", "start": 1392.38, "end": 1394.92, "text": "Okay? So, these are the three major players.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-019", "start": 1395.06, "end": 1396.26, "text": "The parents, the teachers, administrators,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-020", "start": 1396.96, "end": 1398.6, "text": "students, government, colleges.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-021", "start": 1398.74, "end": 1399.46, "text": "They are in this game.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-022", "start": 1399.5, "end": 1400.12, "text": "They don't really matter.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-023", "start": 1401.93, "end": 1405.85, "text": "So, now what we're going to do is we'll analyze the mentality,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-024", "start": 1406.25, "end": 1409.05, "text": "the worldview, the interests of each player.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-025", "start": 1409.86, "end": 1411.86, "text": "Okay? 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So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are to learn. Their priority is to make friends and to be popular among their friends. Okay? That's just human nature. That's true. Right? Then you have, please, teachers and parents. Okay? This guy, this is really important to understand. You're not in school not to learn. You're in school to please parents and to teachers. Why? Because parents are the ones who pay for your way in life. Right? The ones who give you food. Teachers are the ones who give you grades. You're not here to learn. You're here to please them. There's a difference. Okay? And grades are a way of showing how well you're pleasing the parents and the teachers. Okay? Is that true? All right. Um.", "word_count": 148, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-001", "start": 1416.12, "end": 1416.58, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-002", "start": 1417.36, "end": 1418.62, "text": "So, let's look at students.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-003", "start": 1420.22, "end": 1423.06, "text": "Students, okay, I mean, they want to be popular.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-004", "start": 1424.28, "end": 1429.28, "text": "Right? So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-005", "start": 1429.28, "end": 1429.8, "text": "to learn.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-006", "start": 1429.86, "end": 1433.26, "text": "Their priority is to make friends and to be popular among their", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-007", "start": 1433.26, "end": 1434.2, "text": "friends. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-008", "start": 1434.2, "end": 1435.18, "text": "That's just human nature.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-009", "start": 1435.52, "end": 1436.12, "text": "That's true.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-010", "start": 1436.2, "end": 1441.74, "text": "Right? Then you have, please,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-011", "start": 1441.88, "end": 1445.38, "text": "teachers and parents.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-012", "start": 1445.7, "end": 1447.34, "text": "Okay? This guy, this is really important to understand.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-013", "start": 1447.34, "end": 1449.58, "text": "You're not in school not to learn.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-014", "start": 1449.66, "end": 1451.92, "text": "You're in school to please parents and to teachers.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-015", "start": 1452.1, "end": 1456.72, "text": "Why? Because parents are the ones who pay for your way in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-016", "start": 1456.72, "end": 1457.24, "text": "life. Right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-017", "start": 1457.38, "end": 1458.44, "text": "The ones who give you food.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-018", "start": 1458.7, "end": 1460.04, "text": "Teachers are the ones who give you grades.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-019", "start": 1460.66, "end": 1461.84, "text": "You're not here to learn.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-020", "start": 1462.08, "end": 1463.06, "text": "You're here to please them.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-021", "start": 1463.14, "end": 1463.74, "text": "There's a difference.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-022", "start": 1463.94, "end": 1469.4, "text": "Okay? 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Is that true?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-025", "start": 1475, "end": 1475.64, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-026", "start": 1475.86, "end": 1476.34, "text": "Um.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "c11bb7796cba72a39e181b8cd289d3e43f706dc6fdbf53fcb23085534dd2d025", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0024", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1416s", "time_label": "23:36", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0025", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1545.23, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "And then you're like, have fun. Okay? And then get a good college. Okay? All right? So, am I missing anything among the students? All right. So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, parents. Well, the parents, what they want is, of course, successful kids. But they want successful kids not because they believe that success will make their kid happy. What they really want, of course, is face. Right? They want their kid to go to the Ivy League, and then when the kid at the Ivy League provides a good education or their kid will be happy at the Ivy League, they just want to brag to their relatives and their friends and their colleagues, my kid is at Brown or Cornell or Dartmouth. Okay? Um. But face also means to treat education as a luxury product. Why do parents send kids to international schools? Not because you're not successful. Not because international schools provide a better education.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-001", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1478.92, "text": "And then you're like, have fun.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-002", "start": 1481.45, "end": 1484.67, "text": "Okay? And then get a good college.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-003", "start": 1486.7, "end": 1489.7, "text": "Okay? All right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-004", "start": 1491, "end": 1493.36, "text": "So, am I missing anything among the students?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-005", "start": 1494.82, "end": 1495.4, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-006", "start": 1495.42, "end": 1496.78, "text": "So, okay, I'm sure there's more,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-007", "start": 1496.84, "end": 1497.76, "text": "but let's just keep on going.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-008", "start": 1497.86, "end": 1499.26, "text": "Okay? 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Um.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-021", "start": 1535.29, "end": 1539.81, "text": "But face also means to treat education as a luxury product.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-022", "start": 1540.87, "end": 1543.21, "text": "Why do parents send kids to international schools?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-023", "start": 1543.43, "end": 1544.01, "text": "Not because you're not successful.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-024", "start": 1544.01, "end": 1544.11, "text": "Not because", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-025", "start": 1544.11, "end": 1545.23, "text": "international schools provide a better education.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "c6301786c559e15d170daad2c8c6288dbfa36b86886a241f51a4eb069a837ea4", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0025", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1476s", "time_label": "24:36", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0026", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? They have all these white faces, white teachers. They're like, oh my God, this is a real international school now. You don't care if the teacher is actually good at what they're doing. You don't care if the kids are actually learning. You don't care what the curriculum is. You don't understand that sort of stuff. You just understand, okay, ten white faces, therefore, this is a good school. It's that simple. Okay? And then, of course, you want some good outcome. Okay? You want a good outcome. You don't care if your kid is actually learning in school. What you want is your kid to get good grades, to get into good college. Okay? These are not the same thing. All right? So that's the parents.", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-001", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1547.55, "text": "It's because international schools are more expensive,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-002", "start": 1547.67, "end": 1551.45, "text": "and most importantly, international schools have white faces.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-003", "start": 1552.32, "end": 1554.98, "text": "Right? White faces.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-004", "start": 1562.32, "end": 1565.96, "text": "This is the main marketing tool of international schools,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-005", "start": 1566.06, "end": 1569.92, "text": "right? 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You don't care if the kids are actually learning.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-011", "start": 1578.9, "end": 1580.12, "text": "You don't care what the curriculum is.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-012", "start": 1580.2, "end": 1581.16, "text": "You don't understand that sort of stuff.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-013", "start": 1581.16, "end": 1583.08, "text": "You just understand, okay, ten white faces,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-014", "start": 1583.18, "end": 1584.72, "text": "therefore, this is a good school.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-015", "start": 1585.2, "end": 1585.96, "text": "It's that simple.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-016", "start": 1586.84, "end": 1588.94, "text": "Okay? And then, of course,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-017", "start": 1588.96, "end": 1590.26, "text": "you want some good outcome.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-018", "start": 1591.94, "end": 1594.24, "text": "Okay? You want a good outcome.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-019", "start": 1594.56, "end": 1596.94, "text": "You don't care if your kid is actually learning in school.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-020", "start": 1597.18, "end": 1599.76, "text": "What you want is your kid to get good grades,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-021", "start": 1599.76, "end": 1601.46, "text": "to get into good college.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-022", "start": 1601.64, "end": 1603.62, "text": "Okay? These are not the same thing.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-023", "start": 1604.02, "end": 1604.52, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-024", "start": 1604.56, "end": 1605.28, "text": "So that's the", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-025", "start": 1605.28, "end": 1605.555, "text": "parents.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "69cf99e7ae27f709b3c23bca322cd4f63502d8ce8187019b93bde907179c8c88", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0026", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1545s", "time_label": "25:45", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0027", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "start": 1605.555, "end": 1676.73, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Then the teachers. Teachers are really simple. Because teachers do this job. And for them, the priority is to do as little work as possible to get by. Okay? I'm not saying all teachers. I'm saying the majority of teachers in the school are just trying to get by. Because, quite honestly, they have families. And they have other responsibilities. So they don't have time to focus entirely in school. Okay? So basically, just get by. Okay? Or the minimum amount of work. You may not believe this. But, like, we actually grow up and get a job. You'll do the same thing. Okay? Just do a minimum amount of work in order to get by. Administrators, they want good outcomes. But what their real priority is to protect relationship with parents. Okay? Just give parents what they want. Okay? Their job is to sell the school. So whatever parents want, you just give it to them. And administrators also, by the way, have families.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-001", "start": 1605.555, "end": 1606.38, "text": "Then the teachers.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-002", "start": 1607.31, "end": 1609.45, "text": "Teachers are really simple.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-003", "start": 1609.85, "end": 1612.25, "text": "Because teachers do this job.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-004", "start": 1612.25, "end": 1616.79, "text": "And for them, the priority is to do as little work as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-005", "start": 1616.79, "end": 1618.73, "text": "possible to get by.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-006", "start": 1619.78, "end": 1621.32, "text": "Okay? I'm not saying all teachers.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-007", "start": 1621.46, "end": 1624.7, "text": "I'm saying the majority of teachers in the school are just trying", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-008", "start": 1624.7, "end": 1625.14, "text": "to get by.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-009", "start": 1625.34, "end": 1628.38, "text": "Because, quite honestly, they have families.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-010", "start": 1628.6, "end": 1629.92, "text": "And they have other responsibilities.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-011", "start": 1630.28, "end": 1633.12, "text": "So they don't have time to focus entirely in school.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-012", "start": 1633.34, "end": 1635.18, "text": "Okay? So basically, just get by.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-013", "start": 1637.52, "end": 1641.74, "text": "Okay? Or the minimum amount of work.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-014", "start": 1644.77, "end": 1646.35, "text": "You may not believe this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-015", "start": 1646.45, "end": 1647.93, "text": "But, like, we actually grow up and get a job.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-016", "start": 1648.39, "end": 1649.37, "text": "You'll do the same thing.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-017", "start": 1649.47, "end": 1652.09, "text": "Okay? Just do a minimum amount of work in order to get", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-018", "start": 1652.09, "end": 1656.58, "text": "by. Administrators, they want good outcomes.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-019", "start": 1658.14, "end": 1664.83, "text": "But what their real priority is to protect relationship with parents.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-020", "start": 1665.41, "end": 1667.83, "text": "Okay? Just give parents what they want.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-021", "start": 1669, "end": 1670.52, "text": "Okay? Their job is to sell the school.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-022", "start": 1670.92, "end": 1673, "text": "So whatever parents want, you just give it to them.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-023", "start": 1674.03, "end": 1674.91, "text": "And administrators", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-024", "start": 1674.91, "end": 1676.73, "text": "also, by the way, have families.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "cec81471043af054cc394909424ffe7f36bdc36596e8d838c773d6ed13e9437f", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0027", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1605s", "time_label": "26:45", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0028", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1732.61, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "This is a job for them. They also just want to get by. Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible. They're not trying to change the world. They're not trying to educate students. They're just trying to get by. Do the least amount of work in order to get by. Government is, okay, they say they want innovation, creativity, technology. But really, it's just like, no problems, guys. Okay? As long as you don't create any problems for us, we're happy with you. Just stay away from us. We're happy to not bother you. Please don't come bother us. That's government. Also, what they want is for students who will also be no problems in the future, right? Right? So compliance. So as long as schools are teaching you how to obey authority, how to comply, how to do what you're told, they're happy. You're a good school. Okay?", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-001", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1678.49, "text": "This is a job for them.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-002", "start": 1678.59, "end": 1679.59, "text": "They also just want to get by.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-003", "start": 1681.1, "end": 1683.08, "text": "Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-004", "start": 1683.34, "end": 1684.86, "text": "They're not trying to change the world.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-005", "start": 1685.04, "end": 1686, "text": "They're not trying to educate students.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-006", "start": 1686.24, "end": 1687.12, "text": "They're just trying to get by.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-007", "start": 1687.6, "end": 1691.88, "text": "Do the least amount of work in order to get by.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-008", "start": 1692.18, "end": 1695.26, "text": "Government is, okay, they say they want innovation,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-009", "start": 1695.44, "end": 1696.44, "text": "creativity, technology.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-010", "start": 1696.96, "end": 1698.42, "text": "But really, it's just like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-011", "start": 1698.46, "end": 1700.24, "text": "no problems, guys.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-012", "start": 1702.22, "end": 1704.58, "text": "Okay? 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So compliance.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-021", "start": 1720.71, "end": 1725.21, "text": "So as long as schools are teaching you how to obey authority,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-022", "start": 1725.61, "end": 1729.81, "text": "how to comply, how to do what you're told,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-023", "start": 1730.01, "end": 1730.61, "text": "they're happy.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-024", "start": 1730.73, "end": 1731.53, "text": "You're a good school.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-025", "start": 1732.17, "end": 1732.61, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "20c2da7163bfe77c8365fd402699c3a7874ad37f0f4a821afb805065b736ba9d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0028", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1677s", "time_label": "27:57", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0029", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "start": 1732.61, "end": 1754.95, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Colleges, again, just want the money. Okay? That's all they care about. If you're willing to go to American college and pay, how much is it nowadays? Like $50,000, $100,000? A year? That's a lot of money, guys. Okay? If you're willing to pay that, they'll take you. I guarantee you. Even if you don't speak English, they'll take you. All right? Yeah?", "word_count": 65, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-001", "start": 1732.61, "end": 1735.39, "text": "Colleges, again, just want the money.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-002", "start": 1736.9, "end": 1738.1, "text": "Okay? That's all they care about.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-003", "start": 1738.4, "end": 1740.6, "text": "If you're willing to go to American college and pay,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-004", "start": 1740.8, "end": 1742.6, "text": "how much is it nowadays?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-005", "start": 1742.74, "end": 1744.1, "text": "Like $50,000, $100,000?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-006", "start": 1744.1, "end": 1744.52, "text": "A year?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-007", "start": 1744.66, "end": 1745.34, "text": "That's a lot of money,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-008", "start": 1745.42, "end": 1746.3, "text": "guys. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-009", "start": 1747.12, "end": 1748.08, "text": "If you're willing to pay that,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-010", "start": 1748.14, "end": 1748.7, "text": "they'll take you.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-011", "start": 1748.82, "end": 1749.82, "text": "I guarantee you.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-012", "start": 1750.42, "end": 1751.84, "text": "Even if you don't speak English,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-013", "start": 1752, "end": 1752.6, "text": "they'll take you.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-014", "start": 1753.63, "end": 1754.23, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-015", "start": 1754.55, "end": 1754.95, "text": "Yeah?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "8a4fa817ecae4f8bc6284a986943a15270782ff47ee441e692847e0e76f3d12f", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0029", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1732s", "time_label": "28:52", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0030", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "start": 1760.65, "end": 1769.95, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So you mentioned that earlier, like the purpose of education are that three things, but now schools don't do that. So what caused the transformation?", "word_count": 25, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-001", "start": 1760.65, "end": 1762.29, "text": "So you mentioned that earlier,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-002", "start": 1762.47, "end": 1765.73, "text": "like the purpose of education are that three things,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-003", "start": 1765.95, "end": 1767.63, "text": "but now schools don't do that.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-004", "start": 1767.71, "end": 1769.95, "text": "So what caused the transformation?", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "d3e1835d115fc017974957332a4b100353b5bcb634d056d1b5870d1517ad1f36", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0030", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1760s", "time_label": "29:20", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0031", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographics. How many people are there? It's economy. It's politics. It's religion. Okay? And we discussed how societies are born, they mature, and then they die. Okay? So there's actually another way of understanding this. You can actually use three metrics to understand how societies develop. And these three metrics are cohesion, openness, and energy. Okay? So what is energy? Energy just means you want to work hard. Okay? You believe you're motivated, you're driven, you work hard all the time. And working hard just doesn't mean like you work 12 hours. It just means like you're focused, you're attentive. Right? So for example, if you're working at a restaurant as a cook, you want to make a really good meal. Okay? You're energetic about it. Okay?", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-001", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1771.79, "text": "Yeah. That's a really good question.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-002", "start": 1771.85, "end": 1772.63, "text": "When? Yeah.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-003", "start": 1772.67, "end": 1778.19, "text": "Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-004", "start": 1778.19, "end": 1782.53, "text": "right? Superstructure.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-005", "start": 1783.15, "end": 1790.96, "text": "Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-006", "start": 1791.18, "end": 1791.8, "text": "It's demographics.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-007", "start": 1792.18, "end": 1793.08, "text": "How many people are there?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-008", "start": 1793.2, "end": 1793.98, "text": "It's economy.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-009", "start": 1794.16, "end": 1794.82, "text": "It's politics.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-010", "start": 1794.94, "end": 1795.52, "text": "It's religion.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-011", "start": 1796.08, "end": 1800.16, "text": "Okay? And we discussed how societies are born,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-012", "start": 1800.34, "end": 1802.36, "text": "they mature, and then they die.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-013", "start": 1802.86, "end": 1807.34, "text": "Okay? So there's actually another way of understanding this.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-014", "start": 1807.46, "end": 1812.44, "text": "You can actually use three metrics to understand how societies develop.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-015", "start": 1812.9, "end": 1814.84, "text": "And these three metrics are cohesion,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-016", "start": 1816.77, "end": 1821.12, "text": "openness, and energy.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-017", "start": 1822.55, "end": 1825.32, "text": "Okay? So what is energy?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-018", "start": 1825.4, "end": 1828.14, "text": "Energy just means you want to work hard.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-019", "start": 1829.44, "end": 1833.32, "text": "Okay? You believe you're motivated,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-020", "start": 1833.48, "end": 1835.5, "text": "you're driven, you work hard all the time.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-021", "start": 1835.92, "end": 1838.8, "text": "And working hard just doesn't mean like you work 12 hours.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-022", "start": 1838.94, "end": 1840.34, "text": "It just means like you're focused,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-023", "start": 1840.62, "end": 1841.4, "text": "you're attentive.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-024", "start": 1842.29, "end": 1846.01, "text": "Right? So for example, if you're working at a restaurant as a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-025", "start": 1846.01, "end": 1848.59, "text": "cook, you want to make a really good meal.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-026", "start": 1848.91, "end": 1850.37, "text": "Okay? You're energetic about it.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-027", "start": 1850.87, "end": 1851.35, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "9fe78be3a6524ec6b9706da399fee4d1ddaac3f8cdbd29fd3e592c452c68b2fb", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0031", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1770s", "time_label": "29:30", "tags": [ "question", "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0032", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1916.87, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Does that make sense? That's energy. Okay? So openness just means that you want to learn, you want to grow. You're willing to admit you made a mistake and improve on yourself. Okay? And the last thing is cohesion, where you see yourself as part of a society, part of a community. You have a community of people and you want your community to grow as well. And we have all three things together. The schools are great. Okay? And so for example, go to Finland. It's a small country, maybe about 5 million people, but the schools are amazing. Why? Because Finland is an energetic, open, and cohesive society. And when you hear that, what you want to do is invest in the future. And what that means is, you want to make sure that every child, not just your child, but every child has a good future, has a good education. And so what you do is you have your best and brightest become teachers.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-001", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1851.93, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-002", "start": 1852.05, "end": 1852.77, "text": "That's energy.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-003", "start": 1853.4, "end": 1858.31, "text": "Okay? 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You pay them very well. You give them high status. And you give them a lot of autonomy and freedom because then they feel respected. And if you do that, the schools are great. And guess what, guys? In China, in maybe the 1980s, the schools were amazing here. Okay? What we're seeing today is today. But if you go back to the 1980s, the schools were really good. If you went to a school in China, I'm not talking about like the best one, I'm just talking about like an average school, teachers felt respected. They believed they had the responsibility to train the young. They took pride and joy in their work. And the students enjoyed learning. And guess what? Back in the 1980s, kids did less work. There were less tests. There was less pressure. And they learned a lot more. Okay? So when a society starts and begins, you have these three aspects.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-001", "start": 1917.82, "end": 1920.6, "text": "Right? You pay them very well.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-002", "start": 1920.74, "end": 1921.96, "text": "You give them high status.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-003", "start": 1922.58, "end": 1925.7, "text": "And you give them a lot of autonomy and freedom because then", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-004", "start": 1925.7, "end": 1926.36, "text": "they feel respected.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-005", "start": 1927.06, "end": 1928.02, "text": "And if you do that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-006", "start": 1928.12, "end": 1928.94, "text": "the schools are great.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-007", "start": 1929.2, "end": 1930.24, "text": "And guess what, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-008", "start": 1930.38, "end": 1933.91, "text": "In China, in maybe the 1980s,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-009", "start": 1933.91, "end": 1935.71, "text": "the schools were amazing here.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-010", "start": 1935.81, "end": 1940.12, "text": "Okay? What we're seeing today is today.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-011", "start": 1940.34, "end": 1941.84, "text": "But if you go back to the 1980s,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-012", "start": 1941.84, "end": 1943, "text": "the schools were really good.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-013", "start": 1943.42, "end": 1944.7, "text": "If you went to a school in China,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-014", "start": 1944.8, "end": 1946.16, "text": "I'm not talking about like the best one,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-015", "start": 1946.18, "end": 1947.16, "text": "I'm just talking about like an average school,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-016", "start": 1947.38, "end": 1950, "text": "teachers felt respected.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-017", "start": 1950.94, "end": 1953.64, "text": "They believed they had the responsibility to train the young.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-018", "start": 1954.6, "end": 1958.4, "text": "They took pride and joy in their work.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-019", "start": 1959.01, "end": 1961.07, "text": "And the students enjoyed learning.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-020", "start": 1961.35, "end": 1961.87, "text": "And guess what?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-021", "start": 1961.93, "end": 1964.19, "text": "Back in the 1980s, kids did less work.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-022", "start": 1965.66, "end": 1966.74, "text": "There were less tests.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-023", "start": 1967.16, "end": 1968.22, "text": "There was less pressure.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-024", "start": 1968.22, "end": 1969.54, "text": "And they learned a lot more.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-025", "start": 1970.3, "end": 1976.78, "text": "Okay? So when a society starts and begins,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-026", "start": 1977.04, "end": 1978.2, "text": "you have these three aspects.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "89adee5be129b1693cc85b5633b866836b5391bf15d57d7c7b24dde22682949d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0033", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=1917s", "time_label": "31:57", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0034", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "start": 1978.4, "end": 2043.42, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "But over time, what happens is all three decline. Why? Because there's more corruption. There's more inequality. There's more wealth. Okay? So what happens is wealth generation and inequality, corruption. And so people feel under stress. Okay? So rather than cohesion, you have individualization. Individual. Okay? Does that make sense? Where everyone's like, you know what? I don't care if other kids are doing well. What's important is that my kid does well because it's a zero sum game. If all the other kids in school do really well, but my kid flunks out, I'm dead. I'm screwed. So I'd rather my kid do okay and every other kid gets screwed over. Okay? So now it's a competition in schools. All right? Openness. Are you willing to learn? Are you willing to learn from your mistakes? And the answer is no. Because if I'm an administrator and I say to parents, I'm sorry I made a mistake today, the parents will be like, you're fired.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-001", "start": 1978.4, "end": 1983.29, "text": "But over time, what happens is all three decline.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-002", "start": 1984.27, "end": 1988.18, "text": "Why? Because there's more corruption.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-003", "start": 1988.38, "end": 1989.58, "text": "There's more inequality.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-004", "start": 1989.98, "end": 1991.16, "text": "There's more wealth.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-005", "start": 1991.34, "end": 1997.59, "text": "Okay? So what happens is wealth generation and inequality,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-006", "start": 1997.89, "end": 2002.06, "text": "corruption. And so people feel under stress.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-007", "start": 2002.8, "end": 2004.04, "text": "Okay? So rather than cohesion,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-008", "start": 2004.26, "end": 2005.68, "text": "you have individualization.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-009", "start": 2006, "end": 2008.66, "text": "Individual. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-010", "start": 2008.68, "end": 2009.08, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-011", "start": 2009.1, "end": 2010.36, "text": "Where everyone's like, you know what?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-012", "start": 2010.46, "end": 2012.14, "text": "I don't care if other kids are doing well.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-013", "start": 2012.28, "end": 2014.84, "text": "What's important is that my kid does well because it's a zero", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-014", "start": 2014.84, "end": 2015.24, "text": "sum game.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-015", "start": 2016.91, "end": 2018.99, "text": "If all the other kids in school do really well,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-016", "start": 2019.03, "end": 2020.29, "text": "but my kid flunks out,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-017", "start": 2020.39, "end": 2021.23, "text": "I'm dead.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-018", "start": 2021.35, "end": 2021.77, "text": "I'm screwed.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-019", "start": 2022.23, "end": 2025.37, "text": "So I'd rather my kid do okay and every other kid gets", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-020", "start": 2025.37, "end": 2025.75, "text": "screwed over.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-021", "start": 2026.68, "end": 2030.61, "text": "Okay? So now it's a competition in schools.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-022", "start": 2032.8, "end": 2033.3, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-023", "start": 2034.04, "end": 2036.14, "text": "Openness. 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You're incompetent. Okay? So you can be like the best person in the world, but if you make a mistake, the parents will come and kill you. But you can be the worst person in the world, but you're just hiding in your office. The parents can't find you. You're okay. Okay? So school administrators are now afraid to admit they're wrong, which means that a school can never improve. All right? And then you have energy, which is like, you know what? If I do a good job, parents will want me to do a better job. I can't please all the parents, so I'll just hide in my office, do as little work as possible, and then if parents complain, I'll just shut off my brain. Okay? And this is happening because of work generation. 1980s, China was really poor. And the only way to lead a better life is through education.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-001", "start": 2043.54, "end": 2044.08, "text": "Get out of here.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-002", "start": 2044.8, "end": 2045.52, "text": "You're incompetent.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-003", "start": 2046.12, "end": 2049.08, "text": "Okay? So you can be like the best person in the world,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-004", "start": 2049.32, "end": 2050.62, "text": "but if you make a mistake,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-005", "start": 2050.94, "end": 2052.5, "text": "the parents will come and kill you.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-006", "start": 2053.61, "end": 2055.99, "text": "But you can be the worst person in the world,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-007", "start": 2056.07, "end": 2057.03, "text": "but you're just hiding in your office.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-008", "start": 2057.21, "end": 2058.05, "text": "The parents can't find you.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-009", "start": 2058.11, "end": 2058.41, "text": "You're okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-010", "start": 2059.09, "end": 2064.37, "text": "Okay? 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If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do well in school because your parents can just give you an apartment, can buy you a car. Who cares if you do well in school? So you're not motivated. If you're not motivated, you're indifferent, then as a teacher, why am I going to want to teach well? Okay? So it's a superstructure of society. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. Any more questions? Okay. Okay. So thank you. Okay? So again, superstructure determines the motivations of the players. And where the interests of the players converge is the game that you have. Okay? All right. So let's go back to this list. And what we're seeing is parents just want white faces.", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-001", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2103.94, "text": "That's why students work hard.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-002", "start": 2104.08, "end": 2107.3, "text": "If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-003", "start": 2108.2, "end": 2110.26, "text": "And now you're having a time when,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-004", "start": 2110.3, "end": 2112.14, "text": "you know, today in 2025,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-005", "start": 2112.68, "end": 2115.62, "text": "26, when parents have money.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-006", "start": 2115.72, "end": 2119.7, "text": "So it doesn't matter if you don't do well in school because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-007", "start": 2119.7, "end": 2122.22, "text": "your parents can just give you an apartment,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-008", "start": 2122.46, "end": 2123.26, "text": "can buy you a car.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-009", "start": 2124.36, "end": 2126.02, "text": "Who cares if you do well in school?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-010", "start": 2126.02, "end": 2127.56, "text": "So you're not motivated.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-011", "start": 2127.72, "end": 2128.92, "text": "If you're not motivated, you're indifferent,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-012", "start": 2129.26, "end": 2132.98, "text": "then as a teacher, why am I going to want to teach", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-013", "start": 2132.98, "end": 2135.33, "text": "well? Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-014", "start": 2135.41, "end": 2136.63, "text": "So it's a superstructure of society.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-015", "start": 2137.64, "end": 2138.96, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-016", "start": 2140.33, "end": 2140.81, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-017", "start": 2140.87, "end": 2141.39, "text": "Any more questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-018", "start": 2143.39, "end": 2144.31, "text": "Okay. Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-019", "start": 2144.39, "end": 2144.91, "text": "So thank you.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-020", "start": 2144.93, "end": 2155.9, "text": "Okay? So again, superstructure determines the motivations of the players.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-021", "start": 2156.36, "end": 2160.28, "text": "And where the interests of the players converge is the game that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-022", "start": 2160.28, "end": 2160.62, "text": "you have.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-023", "start": 2161.56, "end": 2163.12, "text": "Okay? All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-024", "start": 2164.02, "end": 2164.5, "text": "So let's go back to this list.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-025", "start": 2164.7, "end": 2170.81, "text": "And what we're seeing is parents just want", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-026", "start": 2170.81, "end": 2171.83, "text": "white faces.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "2476c016320d743139af5ab583b25a0a205cfbad043ed5c0542c4b1f8f8744a0", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0036", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2102s", "time_label": "35:02", "tags": [ "answer", "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0037", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "start": 2172.89, "end": 2257.31, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Okay? Sorry. White faces. And they want successful kids, which means good grades. Okay? Teachers just want to get by and do as little work as possible. Administrators just want to protect relationship with parents. Okay? And so when you do this convergence, this is what schools look like now. Okay? Schools in China. International schools in China, by the way. And again, this is like the majority. I'm not saying it's every school, but I'm saying it's the majority. Okay? What you have are white faces, easy grades. Right? It's really easy to get a good grade. All right? Some top students, these students are given scholarships, and then they're sent to top universities. Okay? Then you have lots of cheating. Okay? And high turnover, where students leave, teachers leave, but new ones come in. So who cares? Okay? And this is what it looks like. This is what happens when you take the interests of these different players, you convert them together, and this is what schools look like today.", "word_count": 172, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-001", "start": 2172.89, "end": 2173.87, "text": "Okay? Sorry.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-002", "start": 2173.97, "end": 2174.49, "text": "White faces.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-003", "start": 2175.63, "end": 2179.84, "text": "And they want successful kids,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-004", "start": 2179.94, "end": 2180.76, "text": "which means good grades.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-005", "start": 2182.2, "end": 2186.26, "text": "Okay? Teachers just want to get by and do as little work", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-006", "start": 2186.26, "end": 2186.76, "text": "as possible.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-007", "start": 2187.12, "end": 2190.96, "text": "Administrators just want to protect relationship with parents.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-008", "start": 2191.1, "end": 2193.22, "text": "Okay? And so when you do this convergence,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-009", "start": 2193.66, "end": 2195.36, "text": "this is what schools look like now.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-010", "start": 2198.09, "end": 2201.69, "text": "Okay? Schools in China.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-011", "start": 2202.15, "end": 2203.51, "text": "International schools in China, by the way.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-012", "start": 2203.59, "end": 2205.71, "text": "And again, this is like the majority.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-013", "start": 2205.81, "end": 2206.75, "text": "I'm not saying it's every school,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-014", "start": 2206.81, "end": 2207.45, "text": "but I'm saying it's the majority.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-015", "start": 2207.63, "end": 2209.91, "text": "Okay? What you have are white faces,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-016", "start": 2210.11, "end": 2214.76, "text": "easy grades.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-017", "start": 2215.68, "end": 2217.98, "text": "Right? It's really easy to get a good grade.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-018", "start": 2218.74, "end": 2219.28, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-019", "start": 2221.2, "end": 2225.51, "text": "Some top students, these students are given scholarships,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-020", "start": 2225.69, "end": 2229.53, "text": "and then they're sent to top universities.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-021", "start": 2231.6, "end": 2233.84, "text": "Okay? Then you have lots of cheating.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-022", "start": 2237.84, "end": 2242.6, "text": "Okay? And high turnover, where students leave,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-023", "start": 2242.8, "end": 2245.22, "text": "teachers leave, but new ones come in.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-024", "start": 2245.3, "end": 2245.72, "text": "So who cares?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-025", "start": 2246.81, "end": 2248.63, "text": "Okay? And this is what it looks like.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-026", "start": 2248.75, "end": 2251.69, "text": "This is what happens when you take the interests of these", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-027", "start": 2251.69, "end": 2253.83, "text": "different players, you convert them together,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-028", "start": 2254.15, "end": 2257.31, "text": "and this is what schools look like today.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "273a602cce69a84db321e61298879ae32e156f89dd750b24aa89a8c41375bc86", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0037", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2172s", "time_label": "36:12", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0038", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "start": 2257.53, "end": 2309.37, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Just lots of white faces, lots of really nice buildings, lots of fancy activities, great marketing, beautiful website, really motivate admissions officers. Then you have easy grades where everyone gets an A, no matter what you do. You have some top students who will get into good schools so that the school can brag about them. You have lots of cheating going on. Okay? If you don't get a good grade, just complain, and you'll get a good grade. Okay? So that happened to me at the school where I tried my first year to give fair grades. Okay? A fair grade is not like, I give you a 20. I give you like an A. I give you an 80. And students complain about me. So now, so I'm stuck giving them like a pass -fail. Right? So it's not hard for students to get to pass.", "word_count": 148, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-001", "start": 2257.53, "end": 2258.57, "text": "Just lots of white faces,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-002", "start": 2258.77, "end": 2260.25, "text": "lots of really nice buildings,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-003", "start": 2260.53, "end": 2264.53, "text": "lots of fancy activities, great marketing,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-004", "start": 2264.75, "end": 2269.87, "text": "beautiful website, really motivate admissions officers.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-005", "start": 2269.87, "end": 2273.07, "text": "Then you have easy grades where everyone gets an A,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-006", "start": 2273.19, "end": 2274.57, "text": "no matter what you do.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-007", "start": 2276.1, "end": 2278.72, "text": "You have some top students who will get into good schools so", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-008", "start": 2278.72, "end": 2281.84, "text": "that the school can brag about them.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-009", "start": 2282.46, "end": 2283.8, "text": "You have lots of cheating going on.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-010", "start": 2284.56, "end": 2285.98, "text": "Okay? If you don't get a good grade,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-011", "start": 2286.16, "end": 2288.32, "text": "just complain, and you'll get a good grade.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-012", "start": 2288.46, "end": 2292.24, "text": "Okay? So that happened to me at the school where I tried", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-013", "start": 2292.24, "end": 2296.88, "text": "my first year to give fair grades.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-014", "start": 2297.12, "end": 2298.72, "text": "Okay? A fair grade is not like,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-015", "start": 2298.8, "end": 2299.64, "text": "I give you a 20.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-016", "start": 2299.7, "end": 2300.14, "text": "I give you like an A.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-017", "start": 2300.16, "end": 2300.32, "text": "I give you an 80.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-018", "start": 2300.62, "end": 2301.84, "text": "And students complain about me.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-019", "start": 2301.96, "end": 2304.94, "text": "So now, so I'm stuck giving them like a pass -fail.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-020", "start": 2305.87, "end": 2308.99, "text": "Right? So it's not hard for students to get", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-021", "start": 2308.99, "end": 2309.37, "text": "to pass.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "b38b1825388565f05b8c730aa39e529d6fa15945809f9da9546574f96c07f2f4", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0038", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2257s", "time_label": "37:37", "tags": [] }, { "id": "seg-0039", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "start": 2309.57, "end": 2389.83, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "If you don't like a teacher, just complain, and then the teacher has to change. And so now you have high turnover where teachers feel stressed out, and where parents are never happy, and where students don't care. Okay? Doesn't make sense. This is why schools suck. And I'm saying they suck not just in China, not just in other schools, but in most places around the world. And it has to do with the superstructure of society. Okay? But what, but I mean like, the point of today's class is not like, schools suck, don't go to school. The point of today's class is we're trying to analyze why schools are the way they are. And one way to analyze it is by figuring out what schools suck. And at what point, okay, do the different players converge? Right? So think of, you have different sets, right? Parents, teachers, students, government, colleges, okay? And their convergence point is the game they play.", "word_count": 163, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-001", "start": 2309.57, "end": 2310.21, "text": "If you don't like a teacher,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-002", "start": 2310.25, "end": 2312.79, "text": "just complain, and then the teacher has to change.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-003", "start": 2313.61, "end": 2317.89, "text": "And so now you have high turnover where teachers feel stressed out,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-004", "start": 2318.05, "end": 2320.15, "text": "and where parents are never happy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-005", "start": 2320.33, "end": 2322.33, "text": "and where students don't care.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-006", "start": 2323.45, "end": 2325.97, "text": "Okay? Doesn't make sense.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-007", "start": 2326.8, "end": 2330.48, "text": "This is why schools suck.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-008", "start": 2330.48, "end": 2334.24, "text": "And I'm saying they suck not just in China,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-009", "start": 2334.48, "end": 2336.1, "text": "not just in other schools,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-010", "start": 2336.38, "end": 2339.28, "text": "but in most places around the world.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-011", "start": 2340.17, "end": 2342.01, "text": "And it has to do with the superstructure of society.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-012", "start": 2343.55, "end": 2346.83, "text": "Okay? But what, but I mean like,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-013", "start": 2346.93, "end": 2349.33, "text": "the point of today's class is not like,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-014", "start": 2349.41, "end": 2350.83, "text": "schools suck, don't go to school.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-015", "start": 2351.01, "end": 2355.83, "text": "The point of today's class is we're trying to analyze why schools", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-016", "start": 2355.83, "end": 2357.49, "text": "are the way they are.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-017", "start": 2357.65, "end": 2361.77, "text": "And one way to analyze it is by figuring out what schools", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-018", "start": 2361.77, "end": 2362.87, "text": "suck. And at what point,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-019", "start": 2362.87, "end": 2366.53, "text": "okay, do the different players converge?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-020", "start": 2367.23, "end": 2371.03, "text": "Right? So think of, you have different sets,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-021", "start": 2371.17, "end": 2383.46, "text": "right? Parents, teachers, students, government,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-022", "start": 2383.76, "end": 2385.47, "text": "colleges, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-023", "start": 2386.05, "end": 2387.99, "text": "And their convergence point", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-024", "start": 2387.99, "end": 2389.83, "text": "is the game they play.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "2800ec727e44ef54ef38ac974891d082bb4d891f73a2b2c71b44e5766e10d7cd", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0039", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2309s", "time_label": "38:29", "tags": [] }, { "id": "seg-0040", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "start": 2390.78, "end": 2454.85, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Okay? Now, what's important for us to understand is that there is actually a lot of room to this convergence point. So, it's possible to do reform, but only within a subset of this convergence point. Okay? So, my problem is, back in 2008, I was like, you know what, I'm going to set up a new universe, my own world, I'll make up the rules, I'll be God, and you just have to play the game I tell you to play the game. Okay? And that's why everyone was like, you're an asshole. Okay? Whatever you do, whatever game you set up has to be within this convergence point in order for players to accept it. Okay? And this is true for everything. If you want to implement political reform anywhere, you have to figure out where the different stakeholders converge and figure out how to move the stakeholders from one part of the convergence point to another part of the convergence point.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-001", "start": 2390.78, "end": 2395.9, "text": "Okay? Now, what's important for us to understand is that there is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-002", "start": 2395.9, "end": 2398.64, "text": "actually a lot of room to this convergence point.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-003", "start": 2399.44, "end": 2402.76, "text": "So, it's possible to do reform,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-004", "start": 2403.32, "end": 2409.48, "text": "but only within a subset of this convergence point.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-005", "start": 2410.79, "end": 2413.51, "text": "Okay? So, my problem is,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-006", "start": 2413.77, "end": 2416.38, "text": "back in 2008, I was like,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-007", "start": 2416.48, "end": 2418.26, "text": "you know what, I'm going to set up a new universe,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-008", "start": 2420.45, "end": 2423.35, "text": "my own world, I'll make up the rules,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-009", "start": 2423.57, "end": 2425.41, "text": "I'll be God, and you just have to play the game I", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-010", "start": 2425.41, "end": 2426.35, "text": "tell you to play the game.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-011", "start": 2426.43, "end": 2427.65, "text": "Okay? And that's why everyone was like,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-012", "start": 2427.75, "end": 2428.21, "text": "you're an asshole.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-013", "start": 2430.13, "end": 2433.73, "text": "Okay? Whatever you do, whatever game you set up has to be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-014", "start": 2433.73, "end": 2438.39, "text": "within this convergence point in order for players to accept it.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-015", "start": 2438.51, "end": 2440.05, "text": "Okay? And this is true for everything.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-016", "start": 2440.31, "end": 2442.99, "text": "If you want to implement political reform anywhere,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-017", "start": 2443.35, "end": 2446.45, "text": "you have to figure out where the different stakeholders converge and figure", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-018", "start": 2446.45, "end": 2452.17, "text": "out how to move the stakeholders from one part of the", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-019", "start": 2452.17, "end": 2454.85, "text": "convergence point to another part of the convergence point.", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "33b0e63eefe89d4ecb7ea1efdcedd9f3ae8e25b15fe01a4efcd381554f2a8ea8", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0040", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2390s", "time_label": "39:50", "tags": [] }, { "id": "seg-0041", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "start": 2454.97, "end": 2474.39, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Okay? This slow incremental reform. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay, any questions before I conclude? Guys, ask questions. Was this clear? Yeah, you have a question?", "word_count": 27, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-001", "start": 2454.97, "end": 2457.15, "text": "Okay? This slow incremental reform.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-002", "start": 2458.17, "end": 2459.39, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-003", "start": 2459.39, "end": 2463.26, "text": "Okay, any questions before I conclude?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-004", "start": 2468.78, "end": 2469.82, "text": "Guys, ask questions.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-005", "start": 2471.26, "end": 2472.5, "text": "Was this clear?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-006", "start": 2473.39, "end": 2474.39, "text": "Yeah, you have a question?", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "8738b347e1209df106cb85f5f8ba6a2892ee7553d9f7d252ec4ee556d2091d9e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0041", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2454s", "time_label": "40:54", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0042", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "start": 2480.75, "end": 2491.31, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So, in the future, will we learn more about how do we find out what causes different stakeholders to have different interests? Like, in the future, it's like not really...", "word_count": 30, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-001", "start": 2480.75, "end": 2483.91, "text": "So, in the future, will we learn more about how do we", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-002", "start": 2483.91, "end": 2488.47, "text": "find out what causes different stakeholders to have different interests?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-003", "start": 2489.11, "end": 2491.31, "text": "Like, in the future, it's like not really...", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "883d9ce49669356dd518e413026882f9b0b455eab6658f6b3225b27784b62d22", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0042", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2480s", "time_label": "41:20", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0043", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2571.413, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question. So, thank you for asking, okay? All right. So, the question is, where do the interests... of these different players come from? Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the superstructure of society. Okay? People are responding to their culture. But in game theory, what I want to teach you is that it's because they themselves are playing different games. Okay? So, let's look at parents. Okay. Parents have different identities. They are family. They are colleagues. Okay? And depending on their identity, they're playing a different game. All right? So, what does family mean? Family means that you might have brothers. Right? Brothers. What do brothers do? They compete against each other. Right? You have three brothers. You want to prove that you're better than your brother. How? Well, by having more money, by having better kids, by having a more beautiful wife, by having a better life. Okay?", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-001", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2493.17, "text": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-002", "start": 2493.25, "end": 2494.13, "text": "So, thank you for asking,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-003", "start": 2494.19, "end": 2497.49, "text": "okay? All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-004", "start": 2498.36, "end": 2503.83, "text": "So, the question is, where do the interests...", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-005", "start": 2505.88, "end": 2508.02, "text": "of these different players come from?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-006", "start": 2508.61, "end": 2516.44, "text": "Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the superstructure of society.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-007", "start": 2517.09, "end": 2518.91, "text": "Okay? People are responding to their culture.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-008", "start": 2520.01, "end": 2523.15, "text": "But in game theory, what I want to teach you is that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-009", "start": 2523.15, "end": 2525.69, "text": "it's because they themselves are playing different games.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-010", "start": 2526.61, "end": 2529.56, "text": "Okay? So, let's look at parents.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-011", "start": 2532.79, "end": 2535.21, "text": "Okay. Parents have different identities.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-012", "start": 2535.63, "end": 2538.01, "text": "They are family.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-013", "start": 2538.01, "end": 2540.34, "text": "They are colleagues.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-014", "start": 2542.4, "end": 2545.89, "text": "Okay? And depending on their identity,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-015", "start": 2546.19, "end": 2547.69, "text": "they're playing a different game.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-016", "start": 2548.53, "end": 2549.15, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-017", "start": 2549.23, "end": 2550.65, "text": "So, what does family mean?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-018", "start": 2550.75, "end": 2555.03, "text": "Family means that you might have brothers.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-019", "start": 2555.19, "end": 2556.84, "text": "Right? Brothers.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-020", "start": 2558.19, "end": 2559.25, "text": "What do brothers do?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-021", "start": 2559.45, "end": 2560.77, "text": "They compete against each other.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-022", "start": 2561.27, "end": 2562.95, "text": "Right? You have three brothers.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-023", "start": 2563.15, "end": 2564.99, "text": "You want to prove that you're better than your brother.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-024", "start": 2565.19, "end": 2566.97, "text": "How? 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But they have colleagues. You have colleagues. And the game you're trying to play there is to get along with your colleagues because that's what ensures your success in life. Okay? So, you need to make sure that your child, no matter how he or she is educated, is able to become friends with the sons and daughters of your colleagues. Okay? So, because this is what ensures success. All right? So, there are other games as well. But you understand this. Right? You understand how parents, so calculation isn't just like, my kid, I want my kid to be successful. No, no. You're thinking about how to play different games and be successful in other games. Right? Because if you, if your kid becomes very successful, but not in a way that pleases the colleagues, you become, you can be thrown out of the game. Okay? The thing that people fear the most is the idea of...", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-001", "start": 2571.413, "end": 2572.46, "text": "That's a game they're playing.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-002", "start": 2574.22, "end": 2574.72, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-003", "start": 2575.28, "end": 2576.4, "text": "But they have colleagues.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-004", "start": 2577.22, "end": 2578.32, "text": "You have colleagues.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-005", "start": 2581.57, "end": 2584.1, "text": "And the game you're trying to play there is to get along", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-006", "start": 2584.1, "end": 2586.7, "text": "with your colleagues because that's what ensures your success in life.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-007", "start": 2586.8, "end": 2590.82, "text": "Okay? So, you need to make sure that your child,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-008", "start": 2591.26, "end": 2593.32, "text": "no matter how he or she is educated,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-009", "start": 2593.52, "end": 2597.78, "text": "is able to become friends with the sons and daughters of your", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-010", "start": 2597.78, "end": 2600.33, "text": "colleagues. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-011", "start": 2601.56, "end": 2603.28, "text": "So, because this is what ensures success.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-012", "start": 2604.74, "end": 2605.3, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-013", "start": 2605.42, "end": 2606.18, "text": "So, there are other games as well.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-014", "start": 2606.38, "end": 2607.54, "text": "But you understand this.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-015", "start": 2607.66, "end": 2609.44, "text": "Right? You understand how parents,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-016", "start": 2609.52, "end": 2610.64, "text": "so calculation isn't just like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-017", "start": 2610.7, "end": 2613.38, "text": "my kid, I want my kid to be successful.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-018", "start": 2613.62, "end": 2614.16, "text": "No, no.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-019", "start": 2614.18, "end": 2617.96, "text": "You're thinking about how to play different games and be successful in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-020", "start": 2617.96, "end": 2618.32, "text": "other games.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-021", "start": 2618.82, "end": 2623.38, "text": "Right? Because if you, if your kid becomes very successful,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-022", "start": 2623.72, "end": 2627.82, "text": "but not in a way that pleases the colleagues,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-023", "start": 2628.38, "end": 2630.96, "text": "you become, you can be thrown out of the game.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-024", "start": 2631.04, "end": 2634.04, "text": "Okay? The thing that people fear the most is", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-025", "start": 2634.04, "end": 2634.86, "text": "the idea of...", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "2e49a07b31846e9a6eb0c5f01eb54f7fc013e9b8a29ec6b617c57722a1d21090", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0044", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2571s", "time_label": "42:51", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0045", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do because they're trying to, they're trying as hard as possible to play the game and get along with the other players while at the same time competing against them. So, so, so it's a worse psychology. Okay? You're trying to beat them. At the same time, you don't want to piss them off and get thrown out of the game. Okay? And this is what prevents the idea of cheating. But from the perspective of the game, if you do anything different, that's still cheating. Okay? Because, so another way of saying this is a lot of the rebellion against what I was doing as a reformer is I was subverting traditional Chinese values. Okay?", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-001", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2637.21, "text": "Australization. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-002", "start": 2639.03, "end": 2640.15, "text": "Or basically just exile.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-003", "start": 2642.73, "end": 2645.71, "text": "Where you are no longer part of the group.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-004", "start": 2646.15, "end": 2647.39, "text": "They kick you out as a player.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-005", "start": 2647.51, "end": 2650.23, "text": "Okay? That's what people are afraid of.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-006", "start": 2650.73, "end": 2654.92, "text": "And that's why people are motivated by what they do because they're", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-007", "start": 2654.92, "end": 2658.36, "text": "trying to, they're trying as hard as possible to play the game", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-008", "start": 2658.36, "end": 2663.06, "text": "and get along with the other players while at the same time", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-009", "start": 2663.06, "end": 2664.02, "text": "competing against them.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-010", "start": 2664.46, "end": 2665.68, "text": "So, so, so it's a worse psychology.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-011", "start": 2665.84, "end": 2667.08, "text": "Okay? You're trying to beat them.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-012", "start": 2667.08, "end": 2670.9, "text": "At the same time, you don't want to piss them off and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-013", "start": 2670.9, "end": 2671.76, "text": "get thrown out of the game.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-014", "start": 2671.88, "end": 2675.24, "text": "Okay? And this is what prevents the idea of cheating.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-015", "start": 2680.2, "end": 2682.83, "text": "But from the perspective of the game,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-016", "start": 2683.09, "end": 2684.29, "text": "if you do anything different,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-017", "start": 2684.63, "end": 2685.77, "text": "that's still cheating.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-018", "start": 2686.6, "end": 2691.74, "text": "Okay? Because, so another way of saying this is a lot of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-019", "start": 2691.74, "end": 2698.6, "text": "the rebellion against what I was doing as a reformer is I", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-020", "start": 2698.6, "end": 2701.78, "text": "was subverting traditional Chinese values.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-021", "start": 2701.78, "end": 2702.598, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "846920da8f9c53e4d7006d682225c2f7912ab554d57e4f25136086b2e0a21ca8", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0045", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2636s", "time_label": "43:56", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0046", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. So that's parents. Then you have, um, um, right. Okay. But students, right? So students, right? So students, they're trying to play a game where they do well in school because that ensures a good outcome. But at the same time, students play other games as well. So for example, a friendship game, right? Where you're trying to have as many friends as possible. You're trying to be popular in school. That's another game you play. You're also trying to please your parents, right? Because by pleasing your parents, that ensures that you have an easy, comfortable life. In fact, you could argue that of these three games, pleasing your parents is the most important. Then comes, um. Having good friends because that will also ensure your success in life.", "word_count": 169, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-001", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2708.15, "text": "I was arguing against the norms, the values,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-002", "start": 2708.35, "end": 2711.16, "text": "the conventions of this country.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-003", "start": 2711.6, "end": 2714.6, "text": "And it's, and so if people believed in me,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-004", "start": 2714.74, "end": 2720.68, "text": "then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-005", "start": 2722.03, "end": 2723.25, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-006", "start": 2724.08, "end": 2724.7, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-007", "start": 2724.82, "end": 2726.08, "text": "So that's parents.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-008", "start": 2726.28, "end": 2730.67, "text": "Then you have, um, um,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-009", "start": 2731.64, "end": 2734.45, "text": "right. Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-010", "start": 2734.49, "end": 2735.37, "text": "But students, right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-011", "start": 2735.49, "end": 2736.17, "text": "So students, right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-012", "start": 2736.17, "end": 2740.69, "text": "So students, they're trying to play a game where they do well", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-013", "start": 2740.69, "end": 2743.17, "text": "in school because that ensures a good outcome.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-014", "start": 2743.39, "end": 2744.27, "text": "But at the same time,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-015", "start": 2744.29, "end": 2745.39, "text": "students play other games as well.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-016", "start": 2745.59, "end": 2746.95, "text": "So for example, a friendship game,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-017", "start": 2747.07, "end": 2749.55, "text": "right? Where you're trying to have as many friends as possible.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-018", "start": 2749.71, "end": 2750.61, "text": "You're trying to be popular in school.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-019", "start": 2750.77, "end": 2751.57, "text": "That's another game you play.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-020", "start": 2751.79, "end": 2753.29, "text": "You're also trying to please your parents,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-021", "start": 2753.43, "end": 2756.18, "text": "right? Because by pleasing your parents,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-022", "start": 2756.34, "end": 2757.88, "text": "that ensures that you have an easy,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-023", "start": 2757.96, "end": 2759, "text": "comfortable life.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-024", "start": 2760.04, "end": 2762.42, "text": "In fact, you could argue that of these three games,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-025", "start": 2762.5, "end": 2764.54, "text": "pleasing your parents is the most important.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-026", "start": 2764.98, "end": 2766.86, "text": "Then comes, um.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-027", "start": 2766.86, "end": 2769.9, "text": "Having good friends because that will", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-028", "start": 2769.9, "end": 2771, "text": "also ensure your success in life.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "531f3449946a5b0edea206fec17ed76385cf6ace86f708b5920f1bdac28ee3ff", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0046", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2702s", "time_label": "45:02", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0047", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "start": 2771.16, "end": 2829.82, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "And the game that you care the least about, that matters the least is actually doing well in school. Learning, learning in school. Okay? Does that make sense? So game theory, it sounds easy, but it's very, very complicated because we're complicated individuals. Each one of us has different identities, has different motivations and has different outlooks. And, and also what's really important for us to understand. Is we're always changing as people. Okay? So the way that you behaved in kindergarten is not the way you behave today in high school. It will not be the way you behave when you enter society. You're always changing because the game's always changing. You must adapt to new games that have different players and have new requirements. Okay? So that's wonderful about us where we are easily adaptable, where we are, we are resilient. Okay? But, um, we are always changing. We are always changing", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-001", "start": 2771.16, "end": 2773.04, "text": "And the game that you care the least about,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-002", "start": 2773.18, "end": 2775.8, "text": "that matters the least is actually doing well in school.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-003", "start": 2776.28, "end": 2777.98, "text": "Learning, learning in school.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-004", "start": 2779.19, "end": 2782.7, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-005", "start": 2783.24, "end": 2785.5, "text": "So game theory, it sounds easy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-006", "start": 2785.64, "end": 2788.9, "text": "but it's very, very complicated because we're complicated individuals.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-007", "start": 2790.47, "end": 2793.23, "text": "Each one of us has different identities,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-008", "start": 2793.47, "end": 2796.99, "text": "has different motivations and has different outlooks.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-009", "start": 2797.01, "end": 2799.17, "text": "And, and also what's really important for us to understand.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-010", "start": 2799.29, "end": 2801.11, "text": "Is we're always changing as people.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-011", "start": 2801.25, "end": 2804.57, "text": "Okay? So the way that you behaved in kindergarten is not the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-012", "start": 2804.57, "end": 2805.89, "text": "way you behave today in high school.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-013", "start": 2806.09, "end": 2808.17, "text": "It will not be the way you behave when you enter society.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-014", "start": 2808.47, "end": 2811.27, "text": "You're always changing because the game's always changing.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-015", "start": 2811.41, "end": 2815.31, "text": "You must adapt to new games that have different players and have", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-016", "start": 2815.31, "end": 2815.85, "text": "new requirements.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-017", "start": 2816.01, "end": 2821.87, "text": "Okay? So that's wonderful about us where we are easily adaptable,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-018", "start": 2821.93, "end": 2823.81, "text": "where we are, we are resilient.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-019", "start": 2824.84, "end": 2828.78, "text": "Okay? But, um, we are always changing.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-020", "start": 2828.78, "end": 2829.82, "text": "We are always changing", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "7f3766dca40084f4ddd9ad777ceb3db21b570c645471e5917f575f09942ec2fd", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0047", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2771s", "time_label": "46:11", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0048", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "start": 2829.82, "end": 2903.4, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "according to the game and, and we are who we are is often determined by the nature of the game. Okay? So you can come into school wanting to learn, being creative and all that, but eventually you recognize that that's not really rewarding in school. All right? Getting along, having lots of friends, doing, uh, helping other students cheat. That's rewarded. And so you adapt to the game. And that's why you behave the way you do. Okay? And if you actually go back and think about everything that you did in school, the answer is you're responding to a certain incentive or rule of the game. Okay? And that's what you need to, that's what we need to understand about game theory. Game theory, it's not about ideas. It's not about ideals. It's not the way things should be. It's the way things are. And the way things are, are determined by who players are. 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So you can come into school wanting to learn,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-005", "start": 2845.09, "end": 2847.13, "text": "being creative and all that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-006", "start": 2847.29, "end": 2850.25, "text": "but eventually you recognize that that's not really rewarding in school.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-007", "start": 2850.89, "end": 2851.63, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-008", "start": 2851.71, "end": 2854.27, "text": "Getting along, having lots of friends,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-009", "start": 2854.63, "end": 2858.23, "text": "doing, uh, helping other students cheat.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-010", "start": 2858.23, "end": 2858.85, "text": "That's rewarded.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-011", "start": 2859.27, "end": 2860.73, "text": "And so you adapt to the game.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-012", "start": 2861.05, "end": 2862.91, "text": "And that's why you behave the way you do.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-013", "start": 2863.62, "end": 2866.9, "text": "Okay? 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And that's what you need to,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-017", "start": 2880.54, "end": 2883.94, "text": "that's what we need to understand about game theory.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-018", "start": 2885.32, "end": 2887.78, "text": "Game theory, it's not about ideas.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-019", "start": 2888.06, "end": 2889.34, "text": "It's not about ideals.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-020", "start": 2889.8, "end": 2891.58, "text": "It's not the way things should be.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-021", "start": 2892.1, "end": 2892.82, "text": "It's the way things are.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-022", "start": 2893.04, "end": 2894.08, "text": "And the way things are,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-023", "start": 2894.1, "end": 2896.48, "text": "are determined by who players are.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-024", "start": 2896.96, "end": 2897.8, "text": "And the way", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-025", "start": 2897.8, "end": 2901.82, "text": "players behave, um, is response to their,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-026", "start": 2901.84, "end": 2903.4, "text": "the game they believe they are playing.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "638f82ea14d1c5d61fa38b43e21d4ca06b5ffb26ccdb071b680adea99ba548f9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0048", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2829s", "time_label": "47:09", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0049", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "start": 2903.98, "end": 2917.5, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Great. Does that make sense? Okay. So, so thank you. Any more questions? Okay, great. So, um, we will continue this next class. Okay.", "word_count": 24, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-001", "start": 2903.98, "end": 2905.34, "text": "Great. Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-002", "start": 2905.64, "end": 2907.26, "text": "Okay. So, so thank you.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-003", "start": 2907.3, "end": 2907.98, "text": "Any more questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-004", "start": 2912.5, "end": 2913.48, "text": "Okay, great.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-005", "start": 2913.7, "end": 2917.04, "text": "So, um, we will continue this next class.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-006", "start": 2917.18, "end": 2917.5, "text": "Okay.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "0209f01cd467c8ad6005ee484e1d5a8274e366474cca632f6c64604723fea2f2", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ks-muauq62e/transcript/#seg-0049", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS-muAuq62E&t=2903s", "time_label": "48:23", "tags": [ "monologue" ] } ], "interactions": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang frames the second game-theory class as a training exercise in seeing everyday life as a game. School officially exists to create functional, creative people through literacy, core competencies, and lifelong learning, but most schools fail so badly that they make students hate reading, collaboration, thinking, and learning.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.24, "end": 62.5, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay so welcome back to game theory and um as i discussed last class our goal is able to is to use game theory to analyze global events to understand why they're happening as well as make certain predictions about how t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 62.5, "end": 139.72, "time_label": "1:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in a way that allows you to be functional in society as well as to be creative right okay so the goals are basically literacy all right which means reading and writing this is the primary purpose of school because in or..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 139.72, "end": 208.79, "time_label": "2:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to like actually love learning and you have to like know how to learn for yourself so these are the three basic purposes of school and that's why you're at the school unfortunately what we know is that most schools i'm..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 208.79, "end": 274.43, "time_label": "3:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity critical thinking..." }, { "ref": 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student-run activities.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang autobiographical classroom narrative.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 274.43, "end": 327.76, "time_label": "4:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want to read a book again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to learn again i never..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 327.76, "end": 382.72, "time_label": "5:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in school so i was hired in 2008 to go to xinjiang in south china and help the school shouldn't middle school build in actual international program to send kids abroad okay so this 2008 which was a long time ago and bac..." }, { "ref": 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"video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Jiang describes the student coffee house as a real business and collaboration exercise. A student asks whether it was like the current campus coffee store, and Jiang answers that in 2008 his was the first such school activity and that it still exists years later.", "speaker_attribution": "Student question followed by Jiang answer.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 504.12, "end": 542.94, "time_label": "8:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "coffee house in china in the chinese high school there are lots of coffee houses today when i was the first person to set up a coffee house students had to run a business they had to work as waiters and provide good ser..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 542.94, "end": 546.2, "time_label": "9:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "like the coffee in the west south store" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 546.66, "end": 598.3, "time_label": "9:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay um 2008 i was the first person to do anything okay oh okay okay just i mean like like yeah similar yeah all right so the coffee house was an activity i set up which was very successful it's still there today guys i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He adds the daily newspaper, then explains the cultural system behind the reform: transparency, innovation, and openness, with a curriculum that could admit mistakes and evolve. The program became highly successful by admissions and reputation measures, yet he was fired and treated as a dictator or asshole.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang autobiographical classroom narrative.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 546.66, "end": 598.3, "time_label": "9:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay um 2008 i was the first person to do anything okay oh okay okay just i mean like like yeah similar yeah all right so the coffee house was an activity i set up which was very successful it's still there today guys i..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 598.3, "end": 680.02, "time_label": "9:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "i understand game theory and i says okay if you want to make this transition from the old system to the new system you also have to establish a new culture to allow these activities to flourish okay so my three major pr..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 680.02, "end": 747.48, "time_label": "11:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "of problems in beginning it became a very effective system after a semester or a year and not only that the students who went for this program did very well in life they went to Yale they want to they went to Wharton Co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 747.48, "end": 814.456, "time_label": "12:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "very similar to this, okay, but after that, after four years of doing this and being very successful at this, I was never allowed to set up another program again. No one wanted me to work in management again, okay? Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang identifies the game-theory mistake: he insisted on fairness, but the game is established by stakeholders pursuing interests. He names the players and begins contrasting his idealized 2008 assumptions with their actual incentives.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 814.456, "end": 904.11, "time_label": "13:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay? I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. And as you can imagine, that pissed off a lot of powerful people, because t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 904.47, "end": 970.25, "time_label": "15:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? So, these are the players in the game. And if you want to understand game theory, you need to understand the motivations and interests of all the different players. That tells you why or how they will behave the w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang contrasts his naive 2008 assumptions about students, parents, teachers, administrators, government, and colleges with the harsher game-theory rule: players seek the best possible result with the least possible work. He then gives each player a self-interested motive.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 971.77, "end": 1056.22, "time_label": "16:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right? Teachers. Well, teachers wanted to do a good job. Right? They want to teach students. They love teaching. They love students. They just want to be given the space and the opportunity to teach what their passi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1056.4, "end": 1117.84, "time_label": "17:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? And the easy answer is that in game theory, all the players, what they're motivated in is by achieving the best possible results. By doing the least amount of work possible. Okay? Just remember that. That's a prin..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1118.44, "end": 1166.51, "time_label": "18:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? Because only I know how to ensure my kid succeeds, so I don't want my kids to think critically or be independent. I want my kids to obey me. Now, teachers are like, listen, this is a job, man. Okay? I have kids...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1167.25, "end": 1224.36, "time_label": "19:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? The government is like, you know what? I don't want innovation in this country, even though I say I want it, because I don't want problems in life. Okay? I just want things to just stay the way they are, and ever..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "While listing players and ranking power, a student reminds him about the government. Jiang accepts the correction, adds government back in, and then ranks the game: parents and teachers matter most, while students, government, and colleges matter far less than their public rhetoric implies.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture with brief student correction.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1224.36, "end": 1309.05, "time_label": "20:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "again, and objectively think about what the interests and motivations of each player are, and when their interests converge, that's the game they play. All right? So, you have students, parents, teachers, leaders, schoo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1309.17, "end": 1361.059, "time_label": "21:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? So, the most important are the parents. And you have the teachers. Why? Because the teachers are the ones who are implementing the rules of the game. Okay? The way that teachers behave determines how this game is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1361.059, "end": 1415.28, "time_label": "22:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, the costs don't really matter. They'll take anyone who's willing to pay. And the Ivy League? Yeah, everyone's in the Ivy League, but who do the Ivy League want? They want people who want to be successful in life. Ri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He starts the player-by-player analysis by saying students mainly seek popularity, friendship, parental and teacher approval, grades, fun, and college, not learning itself.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1416.12, "end": 1476.34, "time_label": "23:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right. So, let's look at students. Students, okay, I mean, they want to be popular. Right? So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are to learn. Their priority is to make friends and to be pop..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang analyzes parents: they want successful children, but success functions as face. Ivy League names and expensive international schools become luxury signals, with white teachers as the key marketing proof rather than educational quality.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1545.23, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then you're like, have fun. Okay? And then get a good college. Okay? All right? So, am I missing anything among the students? All right. So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, pare..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "time_label": "25:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? They have all the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He then assigns incentives to teachers, administrators, government, and colleges: teachers minimize work, administrators protect parent relationships, government wants no problems and compliant future citizens, and American colleges want paying students.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1605.555, "end": 1676.73, "time_label": "26:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Then the teachers. Teachers are really simple. Because teachers do this job. And for them, the priority is to do as little work as possible to get by. Okay? I'm not saying all teachers. I'm saying the majority of teache..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1732.61, "time_label": "27:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "This is a job for them. They also just want to get by. Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible. They're not trying to change the world. They're not trying to educate students. They're just trying to g..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1732.61, "end": 1754.95, "time_label": "28:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Colleges, again, just want the money. Okay? That's all they care about. If you're willing to go to American college and pay, how much is it nowadays? Like $50,000, $100,000? A year? That's a lot of money, guys. Okay? If..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "A student asks what transformed education from its proper purposes into schools that do not fulfill them. Jiang begins answering by returning to superstructure and the lifecycle of societies.", "speaker_attribution": "Student question followed by Jiang answer beginning.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1760.65, "end": 1769.95, "time_label": "29:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you mentioned that earlier, like the purpose of education are that three things, but now schools don't do that. So what caused the transformation?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Answering the student's transformation question, Jiang defines the health of a society through energy, openness, and cohesion. When all three are strong, schools invest in the future, respect teachers, and can be excellent, with Finland and earlier China as examples.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answer to student question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1916.87, "time_label": "30:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? That's energy. Okay? So openness just means that you want to learn, you want to grow. You're willing to admit you made a mistake and improve on yourself. Okay? And the last thing is cohesion, where..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1917.82, "end": 1978.2, "time_label": "31:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? You pay them very well. You give them high status. And you give them a lot of autonomy and freedom because then they feel respected. And if you do that, the schools are great. And guess what, guys? In China, in m..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "He then describes decline: wealth, inequality, and corruption weaken cohesion into individual zero-sum competition, punish openness by making administrators afraid to admit mistakes, and drain energy as students and teachers lose motivation.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answer to student question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1978.4, "end": 2043.42, "time_label": "32:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But over time, what happens is all three decline. Why? Because there's more corruption. There's more inequality. There's more wealth. Okay? So what happens is wealth generation and inequality, corruption. And so people..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2043.54, "end": 2101.94, "time_label": "34:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Get out of here. You're incompetent. Okay? So you can be like the best person in the world, but if you make a mistake, the parents will come and kill you. But you can be the worst person in the world, but you're just hi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang returns from superstructure to the school-game list: parents want white faces and grades, teachers want to get by, administrators protect parent relationships, and the convergence produces today's international-school surface.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2172.89, "end": 2257.31, "time_label": "36:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? Sorry. White faces. And they want successful kids, which means good grades. Okay? Teachers just want to get by and do as little work as possible. Administrators just want to protect relationship with parents. Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "After summarizing slow incremental reform, Jiang asks for questions. A student asks whether they will learn how to find what causes different stakeholders to have different interests. Jiang reframes the question as where player interests come from and answers with superstructure, culture, and the fact that each person is also playing other games.", "speaker_attribution": "Student question followed by Jiang answer.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2454.97, "end": 2474.39, "time_label": "40:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? This slow incremental reform. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay, any questions before I conclude? Guys, ask questions. Was this clear? Yeah, you have a question?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2480.75, "end": 2491.31, "time_label": "41:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, in the future, will we learn more about how do we find out what causes different stakeholders to have different interests? Like, in the future, it's like not really..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2571.413, "time_label": "41:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question. So, thank you for asking, okay? All right. So, the question is, where do the interests... of these different players come from? Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the supers..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang explains parents through overlapping identities. As family members, they compete with siblings through money, children, spouse, and lifestyle. As colleagues, they must keep their children aligned with the colleague network or risk social exile.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answer to student question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2571.413, "time_label": "41:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question. So, thank you for asking, okay? All right. So, the question is, where do the interests... of these different players come from? Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the supers..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2571.413, "end": 2634.86, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's a game they're playing. All right? But they have colleagues. You have colleagues. And the game you're trying to play there is to get along with your colleagues because that's what ensures your success in life. Ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "He generalizes the answer: players compete and cooperate at the same time because they fear being thrown out of the game. His own reform violated norms and exposed followers to ostracism. Students also play multiple games, and learning usually matters less than pleasing parents, having friends, and adapting to whichever game is rewarded.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answer and closing model.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "time_label": "45:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2771.16, "end": 2829.82, "time_label": "46:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And the game that you care the least about, that matters the least is actually doing well in school. Learning, learning in school. Okay? Does that make sense? So game theory, it sounds easy, but it's very, very complica..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2829.82, "end": 2903.4, "time_label": "47:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "according to the game and, and we are who we are is often determined by the nature of the game. Okay? So you can come into school wanting to learn, being creative and all that, but eventually you recognize that that's n..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang closes the class after checking for more questions and says they will continue next class.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom close.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2903.98, "end": 2917.5, "time_label": "48:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Great. Does that make sense? Okay. So, so thank you. Any more questions? Okay, great. So, um, we will continue this next class. Okay." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "speaker_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "note": "SPEAKER_01 is likely a student asking about a local coffee-store comparison.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 542.94, "end": 546.2, "time_label": "9:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "like the coffee in the west south store" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "note": "The short 'The government?' exchange is a student correction embedded inside Jiang's segment, despite the same diarization label.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1224.36, "end": 1309.05, "time_label": "20:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "again, and objectively think about what the interests and motivations of each player are, and when their interests converge, that's the game they play. All right? So, you have students, parents, teachers, leaders, schoo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "note": "SPEAKER_00 is a student asking a substantive question about the cause of educational decline.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1760.65, "end": 1769.95, "time_label": "29:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you mentioned that earlier, like the purpose of education are that three things, but now schools don't do that. So what caused the transformation?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "note": "SPEAKER_00 is a student asking a real question about the source of stakeholder interests.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2480.75, "end": 2491.31, "time_label": "41:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, in the future, will we learn more about how do we find out what causes different stakeholders to have different interests? Like, in the future, it's like not really..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "claims": [ { "claim": "Jiang defines the game-theory course goal as learning to analyze why events happen and predict how they develop by seeing the motivations behind behavior.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "temporal_scope": "Course framing on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "game-theory", "prediction", "method" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.24, "end": 62.5, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay so welcome back to game theory and um as i discussed last class our goal is able to is to use game theory to analyze global events to understand why they're happening as well as make certain predictions about how t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says school is supposed to train students for social function and creativity through literacy, core competencies, and lifelong learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition given on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "school", "literacy", "lifelong-learning" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.24, "end": 62.5, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay so welcome back to game theory and um as i discussed last class our goal is able to is to use game theory to analyze global events to understand why they're happening as well as make certain predictions about how t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 62.5, "end": 139.72, "time_label": "1:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in a way that allows you to be functional in society as well as to be creative right okay so the goals are basically literacy all right which means reading and writing this is the primary purpose of school because in or..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 139.72, "end": 208.79, "time_label": "2:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to like actually love learning and you have to like know how to learn for yourself so these are the three basic purposes of school and that's why you're at the school unfortunately what we know is that most schools i'm..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that most schools do not merely fail to teach these purposes; they produce the opposite effect by weakening reading, turning collaboration into zero-sum competition, and making students hate learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "school-failure", "zero-sum", "learning" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 139.72, "end": 208.79, "time_label": "2:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to like actually love learning and you have to like know how to learn for yourself so these are the three basic purposes of school and that's why you're at the school unfortunately what we know is that most schools i'm..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 208.79, "end": 274.43, "time_label": "3:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity critical thinking..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 274.43, "end": 327.76, "time_label": "4:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want to read a book again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to learn again i never..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "In Jiang's account, the 2008 South China program began from replacing memorization and performative activities with seminar discussion, real reading, student-run business practice, and doing rather than merely 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"speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "do is you take kids and you stick notes and you take tests you don't communicate you don't ask questions you don't debate okay so that's one problem another problem is that the students are spending all their time memor..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 447.4, "end": 504.12, "time_label": "7:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the school okay so first thing i did was i set up a seminar system so rather than change classes i invited these american teachers to come and teach seminars like we have at the school where 10 20 kids are in a room and..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the coffee house worked because students ran a real business, served customers, collaborated, and learned finance and entrepreneurship rather than merely performing an extracurricular label.", "refs": [ 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"temporal_scope": "Autobiographical account narrated on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "daily-newspaper", "student-work", "practice" ], "claim_type": "history", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 546.66, "end": 598.3, "time_label": "9:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay um 2008 i was the first person to do anything okay oh okay okay just i mean like like yeah similar yeah all right so the coffee house was an activity i set up which was very successful it's still there today guys i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He presents transparency, innovation, and openness as the cultural principles needed for a reforming curriculum to learn from mistakes and evolve.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "temporal_scope": "Model articulated on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "school-reform", 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"school-politics" ], "claim_type": "history", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 680.02, "end": 747.48, "time_label": "11:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "of problems in beginning it became a very effective system after a semester or a year and not only that the students who went for this program did very well in life they went to Yale they want to they went to Wharton Co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 747.48, "end": 814.456, "time_label": "12:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "very similar to this, okay, but after that, after four years of doing this and being very successful at this, I was never allowed to set up another program again. 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And the easy answer is that in game theory, all the players, what they're motivated in is by achieving the best possible results. By doing the least amount of work possible. Okay? Just remember that. That's a prin..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1118.44, "end": 1166.51, "time_label": "18:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? Because only I know how to ensure my kid succeeds, so I don't want my kids to think critically or be independent. I want my kids to obey me. Now, teachers are like, listen, this is a job, man. Okay? I have kids...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1167.25, "end": 1224.36, "time_label": "19:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? The government is like, you know what? I don't want innovation in this country, even though I say I want it, because I don't want problems in life. Okay? 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Ri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says students are in school mainly to please parents and teachers because parents pay for life and teachers give grades; learning is not the actual priority in the game.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "students", "grades", "approval" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1416.12, "end": 1476.34, "time_label": "23:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right. So, let's look at students. Students, okay, I mean, they want to be popular. Right? So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are to learn. 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So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, pare..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "time_label": "25:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? 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I'm saying the majority of teache..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1732.61, "time_label": "27:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "This is a job for them. They also just want to get by. Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible. They're not trying to change the world. They're not trying to educate students. 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They're just trying to g..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He claims American colleges will take international students primarily because they can pay, even if the admissions rhetoric says they seek passion and curiosity.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "american-colleges", "tuition", "admissions" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1732.61, "end": 1754.95, "time_label": "28:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Colleges, again, just want the money. Okay? That's all they care about. If you're willing to go to American college and pay, how much is it nowadays? Like $50,000, $100,000? A year? That's a lot of money, guys. Okay? 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It's demographic..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang uses three metrics for societal development: energy, openness, and cohesion.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Model stated on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "societal-development", "energy", "openness", "cohesion" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1916.87, "time_label": "30:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? That's energy. Okay? So openness just means that you want to learn, you want to grow. You're willing to admit you made a mistake and improve on yourself. Okay? And the last thing is cohesion, where..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that excellent schools arise when a society is energetic, open, and cohesive enough to invest in every child's future and make teaching high-status, autonomous work.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Education model on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "good-schools", "teachers", "future-investment" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1916.87, "time_label": "30:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? That's energy. Okay? So openness just means that you want to learn, you want to grow. You're willing to admit you made a mistake and improve on yourself. Okay? And the last thing is cohesion, where..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1917.82, "end": 1978.2, "time_label": "31:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? You pay them very well. You give them high status. And you give them a lot of autonomy and freedom because then they feel respected. And if you do that, the schools are great. And guess what, guys? In China, in m..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says Chinese schools in the 1980s were better in part because teachers were respected, felt responsibility for the young, took joy in their work, and students faced less pressure while learning more.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical comparison stated on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "china-1980s", "schools", "teacher-status" ], "claim_type": "history", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1917.82, "end": 1978.2, "time_label": "31:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? You pay them very well. You give them high status. And you give them a lot of autonomy and freedom because then they feel respected. And if you do that, the schools are great. And guess what, guys? In China, in m..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He diagnoses school decline as a superstructural effect of wealth generation, inequality, and corruption: cohesion turns into individualization, openness is punished, and energy collapses into hiding and minimal effort.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "Societal diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "decline", "inequality", "corruption", "individualization" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1978.4, "end": 2043.42, "time_label": "32:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But over time, what happens is all three decline. Why? Because there's more corruption. There's more inequality. There's more wealth. Okay? So what happens is wealth generation and inequality, corruption. And so people..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2043.54, "end": 2101.94, "time_label": "34:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Get out of here. You're incompetent. Okay? So you can be like the best person in the world, but if you make a mistake, the parents will come and kill you. But you can be the worst person in the world, but you're just hi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says that in 2025-2026, some parents' wealth weakens student motivation because school success is no longer the only route to material security.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "temporal_scope": "Contemporary diagnosis for 2025-2026, stated on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "wealth", "student-motivation", "china" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "When the player interests converge in Chinese international schools, Jiang says the result is white faces, easy grades, scholarships for a few top students, cheating, and high turnover.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "international-schools", "convergence", "cheating", "turnover" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2172.89, "end": 2257.31, "time_label": "36:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? Sorry. White faces. And they want successful kids, which means good grades. Okay? Teachers just want to get by and do as little work as possible. Administrators just want to protect relationship with parents. Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says player interests come from the superstructure of society and culture, but game theory also has to see that each player is simultaneously playing several other games through several identities.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "temporal_scope": "Question-answer model on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "stakeholders", "superstructure", "multiple-games", "identity" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2480.75, "end": 2491.31, "time_label": "41:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, in the future, will we learn more about how do we find out what causes different stakeholders to have different interests? Like, in the future, it's like not really..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2571.413, "time_label": "41:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question. So, thank you for asking, okay? All right. So, the question is, where do the interests... of these different players come from? Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the supers..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He models parents as people with multiple identities: in the family game they compete with siblings by producing visible success, while in the colleague game they seek social acceptance through children who fit the colleague network.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Player-interest model on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "parents", "identity", "family-game", "colleague-game" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2571.413, "time_label": "41:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question. So, thank you for asking, okay? All right. So, the question is, where do the interests... of these different players come from? Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the supers..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2571.413, "end": 2634.86, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's a game they're playing. All right? But they have colleagues. You have colleagues. And the game you're trying to play there is to get along with your colleagues because that's what ensures your success in life. Ok..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says social players fear ostracism or exile from the group, so they try to beat others while also avoiding behavior that gets them thrown out of the game.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory model on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "ostracism", "exile", "competition", "cooperation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2571.413, "end": 2634.86, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's a game they're playing. All right? But they have colleagues. You have colleagues. And the game you're trying to play there is to get along with your colleagues because that's what ensures your success in life. Ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He interprets backlash against his reform as a defense of norms: by arguing against local conventions, he made supporters risk ostracism by the larger community.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "school-reform", "norms", "ostracism", "chinese-values" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "time_label": "45:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says students also play multiple games: doing well in school, friendship/popularity, and pleasing parents; in his ranking, pleasing parents comes first, friendship second, and actual learning last.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047" ], "temporal_scope": "Student-game model on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "students", "multiple-games", "parents", "friendship", "learning" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "time_label": "45:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2771.16, "end": 2829.82, "time_label": "46:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And the game that you care the least about, that matters the least is actually doing well in school. Learning, learning in school. Okay? Does that make sense? So game theory, it sounds easy, but it's very, very complica..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines game theory here as a descriptive account of how players behave in response to incentives and the game they believe they are playing, not as ideals or how things should be.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory definition on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "game-theory", "incentives", "descriptive-model" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2829.82, "end": 2903.4, "time_label": "47:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "according to the game and, and we are who we are is often determined by the nature of the game. Okay? So you can come into school wanting to learn, being creative and all that, but eventually you recognize that that's n..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The lecture ends as a continuing sequence rather than a completed topic; Jiang explicitly says the class will continue next time.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Class close on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "course-sequence", "game-theory" ], "claim_type": "chronology", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2903.98, "end": 2917.5, "time_label": "48:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Great. Does that make sense? Okay. So, so thank you. Any more questions? Okay, great. So, um, we will continue this next class. Okay." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "signature_moments": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "moment": "School is supposed to teach lifelong learning, but the ritual ending is students burning books as liberation.", "source_phrase": "you burn your books", "why_it_matters": "It condenses Jiang's indictment: the institution meant to produce learning becomes a machine for hating learning.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 208.79, "end": 274.43, "time_label": "3:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity critical thinking..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 274.43, "end": 327.76, "time_label": "4:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want to read a book again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to learn again i never..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "moment": "His reform principle is blunt: stop having students sit around talking and make them do things.", "source_phrase": "I wanted to let them do things", "why_it_matters": "This becomes the practical contrast between institutional signaling and real competence.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 447.4, "end": 504.12, "time_label": "7:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the school okay so first thing i did was i set up a seminar system so rather than change classes i invited these american teachers to come and teach seminars like we have at the school where 10 20 kids are in a room and..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "moment": "Learning is defined as admitting mistakes together and correcting them together.", "source_phrase": "we would admit these mistakes and then we would correct them together", "why_it_matters": "It explains why transparency is not a moral decoration for Jiang but the operating system of reform.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 598.3, "end": 680.02, "time_label": "9:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "i understand game theory and i says okay if you want to make this transition from the old system to the new system you also have to establish a new culture to allow these activities to flourish okay so my three major pr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "moment": "The successful reformer is not remembered as a visionary but as the asshole who insisted on fairness.", "source_phrase": "Because I insisted on fairness", "why_it_matters": "This is the hinge from autobiography into game theory: success failed because it violated the actual game.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 747.48, "end": 814.456, "time_label": "12:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "very similar to this, okay, but after that, after four years of doing this and being very successful at this, I was never allowed to set up another program again. No one wanted me to work in management again, okay? Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 814.456, "end": 904.11, "time_label": "13:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay? I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. And as you can imagine, that pissed off a lot of powerful people, because t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "moment": "The entire school game is compressed into one bleak rule: best result, least work.", "source_phrase": "best possible result, least possible work", "why_it_matters": "This is the incentive axiom that drives the rest of the lecture.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1056.4, "end": 1117.84, "time_label": "17:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? And the easy answer is that in game theory, all the players, what they're motivated in is by achieving the best possible results. By doing the least amount of work possible. Okay? Just remember that. That's a prin..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "moment": "Jiang casts himself as the outsider who built a thriving game that players did not want because they could not control it.", "source_phrase": "I was an outsider", "why_it_matters": "It explains why a successful reform can still be rejected by the system it improves.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1167.25, "end": 1224.36, "time_label": "19:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? The government is like, you know what? I don't want innovation in this country, even though I say I want it, because I don't want problems in life. Okay? I just want things to just stay the way they are, and ever..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "moment": "Grades become a visible receipt for pleasing parents and teachers, not evidence of learning.", "source_phrase": "grades are a way of showing how well you're pleasing", "why_it_matters": "It turns an ordinary school metric into a social-obedience signal.", "tone": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1416.12, "end": 1476.34, "time_label": "23:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right. So, let's look at students. Students, okay, I mean, they want to be popular. Right? So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are to learn. Their priority is to make friends and to be pop..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "moment": "The international school sells itself through white faces: ten white teachers become proof enough that the school is good.", "source_phrase": "ten white faces, therefore, this is a good school", "why_it_matters": "It gives the episode one of its sharpest images of status replacing education.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "time_label": "25:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? They have all the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "moment": "Government's hidden curriculum is no problems now and compliant students later.", "source_phrase": "no problems, guys", "why_it_matters": "It turns state demand for education into a demand for obedience.", "tone": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1732.61, "time_label": "27:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "This is a job for them. They also just want to get by. Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible. They're not trying to change the world. They're not trying to educate students. They're just trying to g..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "moment": "A healthy society makes the best and brightest become teachers because children are the shared future.", "source_phrase": "your best and brightest become teachers", "why_it_matters": "It gives Jiang's positive counter-model before the decline diagnosis.", "tone": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1916.87, "time_label": "30:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? That's energy. Okay? So openness just means that you want to learn, you want to grow. You're willing to admit you made a mistake and improve on yourself. Okay? 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And so people..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2043.54, "end": 2101.94, "time_label": "34:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Get out of here. You're incompetent. Okay? So you can be like the best person in the world, but if you make a mistake, the parents will come and kill you. But you can be the worst person in the world, but you're just hi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "moment": "The social game is a worse psychology: beat the others, but do not anger them enough to get thrown out.", "source_phrase": "You're trying to beat them. 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And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2771.16, "end": 2829.82, "time_label": "46:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And the game that you care the least about, that matters the least is actually doing well in school. Learning, learning in school. Okay? Does that make sense? 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I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. 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Ri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says students are in school mainly to please parents and teachers because parents pay for life and teachers give grades; learning is not the actual priority in the game.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "students", "grades", "approval" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1416.12, "end": 1476.34, "time_label": "23:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right. So, let's look at students. Students, okay, I mean, they want to be popular. Right? So, most students come to school and actually their priorities are to learn. Their priority is to make friends and to be pop..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that many parents treat education as a status good: Ivy League names and expensive international schools matter because they provide face before relatives, friends, and colleagues.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "parents", "face", "luxury-education", "ivy-league" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1545.23, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then you're like, have fun. Okay? And then get a good college. Okay? All right? So, am I missing anything among the students? All right. So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, pare..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "time_label": "25:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? They have all the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says white teachers are the main marketing tool of international schools because parents read 'white faces' as proof of quality regardless of curriculum, teacher competence, or learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "white-faces", "international-schools", "marketing" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "time_label": "25:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? They have all the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He portrays teachers and administrators as workers trying to get by: teachers minimize effort, while administrators sell the school by giving parents what they want.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "teachers", "administrators", "minimum-work" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1605.555, "end": 1676.73, "time_label": "26:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Then the teachers. Teachers are really simple. Because teachers do this job. And for them, the priority is to do as little work as possible to get by. Okay? I'm not saying all teachers. I'm saying the majority of teache..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1732.61, "time_label": "27:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "This is a job for them. They also just want to get by. Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible. They're not trying to change the world. They're not trying to educate students. They're just trying to g..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the government's practical demand is no problems and compliance, so a school that trains obedience can count as a good school from the state's point of view.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "government", "compliance", "obedience" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1677.13, "end": 1732.61, "time_label": "27:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "This is a job for them. They also just want to get by. Okay? They're not trying to build the best school possible. They're not trying to change the world. They're not trying to educate students. They're just trying to g..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He claims American colleges will take international students primarily because they can pay, even if the admissions rhetoric says they seek passion and curiosity.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "american-colleges", "tuition", "admissions" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1732.61, "end": 1754.95, "time_label": "28:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Colleges, again, just want the money. Okay? That's all they care about. If you're willing to go to American college and pay, how much is it nowadays? Like $50,000, $100,000? A year? That's a lot of money, guys. Okay? If..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He diagnoses school decline as a superstructural effect of wealth generation, inequality, and corruption: cohesion turns into individualization, openness is punished, and energy collapses into hiding and minimal effort.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "Societal diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "decline", "inequality", "corruption", "individualization" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1978.4, "end": 2043.42, "time_label": "32:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But over time, what happens is all three decline. Why? Because there's more corruption. There's more inequality. There's more wealth. Okay? So what happens is wealth generation and inequality, corruption. And so people..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2043.54, "end": 2101.94, "time_label": "34:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Get out of here. You're incompetent. Okay? So you can be like the best person in the world, but if you make a mistake, the parents will come and kill you. But you can be the worst person in the world, but you're just hi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says that in 2025-2026, some parents' wealth weakens student motivation because school success is no longer the only route to material security.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "temporal_scope": "Contemporary diagnosis for 2025-2026, stated on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "wealth", "student-motivation", "china" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "When the player interests converge in Chinese international schools, Jiang says the result is white faces, easy grades, scholarships for a few top students, cheating, and high turnover.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "School-game diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "international-schools", "convergence", "cheating", "turnover" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2172.89, "end": 2257.31, "time_label": "36:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? Sorry. White faces. And they want successful kids, which means good grades. Okay? Teachers just want to get by and do as little work as possible. Administrators just want to protect relationship with parents. Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He interprets backlash against his reform as a defense of norms: by arguing against local conventions, he made supporters risk ostracism by the larger community.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "school-reform", "norms", "ostracism", "chinese-values" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "time_label": "45:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "other_claims": [ { "claim": "He says school is supposed to train students for social function and creativity through literacy, core competencies, and lifelong learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition given on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "school", "literacy", "lifelong-learning" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.24, "end": 62.5, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay so welcome back to game theory and um as i discussed last class our goal is able to is to use game theory to analyze global events to understand why they're happening as well as make certain predictions about how t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 62.5, "end": 139.72, "time_label": "1:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in a way that allows you to be functional in society as well as to be creative right okay so the goals are basically literacy all right which means reading and writing this is the primary purpose of school because in or..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 139.72, "end": 208.79, "time_label": "2:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to like actually love learning and you have to like know how to learn for yourself so these are the three basic purposes of school and that's why you're at the school unfortunately what we know is that most schools i'm..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "In Jiang's account, the 2008 South China program began from 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"ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 382.72, "end": 447.4, "time_label": "6:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "do is you take kids and you stick notes and you take tests you don't communicate you don't ask questions you don't debate okay so that's one problem another problem is that the students are spending all their time memor..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 447.4, "end": 504.12, "time_label": "7:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the school okay so first thing i did was i set up a seminar system so rather than change classes i invited these american teachers to come and teach seminars like we have at the school where 10 20 kids are in a room and..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the coffee house worked because students ran a real business, served customers, collaborated, and learned finance and entrepreneurship rather than merely performing an extracurricular label.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "temporal_scope": "Autobiographical account narrated on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "coffee-house", "collaboration", "entrepreneurship" ], "claim_type": "history", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 504.12, "end": 542.94, "time_label": "8:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "coffee house in china in the chinese high school there are lots of coffee houses today when i was the first person to set up a coffee house students had to run a business they had to work as waiters and provide good ser..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the daily newspaper required students to gather information, write, edit, publish, and deliver under real deadlines, making it a demanding practice environment.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "temporal_scope": "Autobiographical account narrated on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "daily-newspaper", "student-work", "practice" ], "claim_type": "history", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 546.66, "end": 598.3, "time_label": "9:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay um 2008 i was the first person to do anything okay oh okay okay just i mean like like yeah similar yeah all right so the coffee house was an activity i set up which was very successful it's still there today guys i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the program succeeded by conventional standards, including student outcomes and regional reputation, but the same stakeholders still pushed him out.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Autobiographical account of the post-2008 reform period.", "topic_tags": [ "success", "firing", "school-politics" ], "claim_type": "history", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 680.02, "end": 747.48, "time_label": "11:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "of problems in beginning it became a very effective system after a semester or a year and not only that the students who went for this program did very well in life they went to Yale they want to they went to Wharton Co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 747.48, "end": 814.456, "time_label": "12:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "very similar to this, okay, but after that, after four years of doing this and being very successful at this, I was never allowed to set up another program again. No one wanted me to work in management again, okay? Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "When asked what caused the transformation, Jiang answers by invoking superstructure, defined as the macro picture of society: demographics, economy, politics, and religion.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "Question-answer model on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "superstructure", "social-decline", "education" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1760.65, "end": 1769.95, "time_label": "29:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you mentioned that earlier, like the purpose of education are that three things, but now schools don't do that. So what caused the transformation?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says Chinese schools in the 1980s were better in part because teachers were respected, felt responsibility for the young, took joy in their work, and students faced less pressure while learning more.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical comparison stated on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "china-1980s", "schools", "teacher-status" ], "claim_type": "history", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1917.82, "end": 1978.2, "time_label": "31:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? You pay them very well. You give them high status. And you give them a lot of autonomy and freedom because then they feel respected. And if you do that, the schools are great. And guess what, guys? In China, in m..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines game theory here as a descriptive account of how players behave in response to incentives and the game they believe they are playing, not as ideals or how things should be.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory definition on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "game-theory", "incentives", "descriptive-model" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2829.82, "end": 2903.4, "time_label": "47:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "according to the game and, and we are who we are is often determined by the nature of the game. Okay? So you can come into school wanting to learn, being creative and all that, but eventually you recognize that that's n..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The lecture ends as a continuing sequence rather than a completed topic; Jiang explicitly says the class will continue next time.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Class close on 2026-01-08.", "topic_tags": [ "course-sequence", "game-theory" ], "claim_type": "chronology", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2903.98, "end": 2917.5, "time_label": "48:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Great. Does that make sense? Okay. So, so thank you. Any more questions? Okay, great. So, um, we will continue this next class. Okay." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "glossary_terms": [ { "term": "cohesion", "usages": [ "Seeing oneself as part of a community whose growth matters." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1916.87, "time_label": "30:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? That's energy. Okay? So openness just means that you want to learn, you want to grow. You're willing to admit you made a mistake and improve on yourself. Okay? And the last thing is cohesion, where..." } ] }, { "term": "convergence", "usages": [ "The point where player interests line up enough to form the actual game." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1224.36, "end": 1309.05, "time_label": "20:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "again, and objectively think about what the interests and motivations of each player are, and when their interests converge, that's the game they play. All right? So, you have students, parents, teachers, leaders, schoo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1361.059, "end": 1415.28, "time_label": "22:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, the costs don't really matter. They'll take anyone who's willing to pay. And the Ivy League? Yeah, everyone's in the Ivy League, but who do the Ivy League want? They want people who want to be successful in life. Ri..." } ] }, { "term": "core competencies", "usages": [ "Jiang uses the term for skills needed in life, especially critical thinking, cooperation, collaboration, and communication." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 62.5, "end": 139.72, "time_label": "1:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in a way that allows you to be functional in society as well as to be creative right okay so the goals are basically literacy all right which means reading and writing this is the primary purpose of school because in or..." } ] }, { "term": "energy", "usages": [ "Motivated, focused, attentive willingness to work hard at the task." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." } ] }, { "term": "face", "usages": [ "Status recognition before relatives, friends, and colleagues, here achieved through a child's elite-school label." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1476.34, "end": 1545.23, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then you're like, have fun. Okay? And then get a good college. Okay? All right? So, am I missing anything among the students? All right. So, okay, I'm sure there's more, but let's just keep on going. Okay? Now, pare..." } ] }, { "term": "fairness", "usages": [ "Used as the reform principle that angered powerful players because it ignored status, parent power, and local game rules." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 814.456, "end": 904.11, "time_label": "13:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay? I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. And as you can imagine, that pissed off a lot of powerful people, because t..." } ] }, { "term": "friendship game", "usages": [ "A student game of having friends and popularity, which Jiang ranks above actual school learning in student priorities." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "time_label": "45:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." } ] }, { "term": "lifelong learning", "usages": [ "A constant process of learning required because AI, globalization, and social change keep remaking the world." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 62.5, "end": 139.72, "time_label": "1:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in a way that allows you to be functional in society as well as to be creative right okay so the goals are basically literacy all right which means reading and writing this is the primary purpose of school because in or..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 139.72, "end": 208.79, "time_label": "2:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to like actually love learning and you have to like know how to learn for yourself so these are the three basic purposes of school and that's why you're at the school unfortunately what we know is that most schools i'm..." } ] }, { "term": "multiple games", "usages": [ "The idea that each person acts through several identities and therefore several overlapping incentive systems at once." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2491.69, "end": 2571.413, "time_label": "41:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, yeah, that's a really good question. So, thank you for asking, okay? All right. So, the question is, where do the interests... of these different players come from? Okay? And, I mean, the easy answer is the supers..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "time_label": "45:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." } ] }, { "term": "openness", "usages": [ "Willingness to learn, grow, admit mistakes, and improve." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1851.39, "end": 1916.87, "time_label": "30:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? That's energy. Okay? So openness just means that you want to learn, you want to grow. You're willing to admit you made a mistake and improve on yourself. Okay? And the last thing is cohesion, where..." } ] }, { "term": "ostracism", "usages": [ "Being exiled from the group or kicked out as a player, which Jiang treats as one of the strongest social fears." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "time_label": "45:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." } ] }, { "term": "players", "usages": [ "The stakeholders whose motivations, power, and incentives determine how a social game is played." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 814.456, "end": 904.11, "time_label": "13:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay? I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. And as you can imagine, that pissed off a lot of powerful people, because t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1224.36, "end": 1309.05, "time_label": "20:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "again, and objectively think about what the interests and motivations of each player are, and when their interests converge, that's the game they play. All right? So, you have students, parents, teachers, leaders, schoo..." } ] }, { "term": "stakeholders", "usages": [ "In this lecture, stakeholders are simply the players whose interests establish the game." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 814.456, "end": 904.11, "time_label": "13:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because I insisted on fairness, okay? I don't care who you are. I don't care who your parents are. I want... I want you to work hard and learn. And as you can imagine, that pissed off a lot of powerful people, because t..." } ] }, { "term": "superstructure", "usages": [ "The macro picture of a society: demographics, economy, politics, and religion." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." } ] }, { "term": "white faces", "usages": [ "Jiang's shorthand for white foreign teachers used as a visible status signal and marketing proof in Chinese international schools." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1545.55, "end": 1605.555, "time_label": "25:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "It's because international schools are more expensive, and most importantly, international schools have white faces. Right? White faces. This is the main marketing tool of international schools, right? They have all the..." } ] }, { "term": "zero-sum school game", "usages": [ "Jiang's description of school competition where getting ahead means beating or 'schooling' classmates rather than collaborating with them." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 208.79, "end": 274.43, "time_label": "3:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "decreased it's very hard for a professor to give you an hour lecture people lose focus after about five minutes okay so this is one problem another problem is school is supposed to teach you creativity critical thinking..." } ] } ], "chronology_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "note": "The lecture anchors the reform story in 2008, after Jiang's Yale College period and before the international-school market had many competitors.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 274.43, "end": 327.76, "time_label": "4:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "out the pages and you throw it in the sky just to signal your liberation your liberation and you're like i never ever want to read a book again i never ever want to take a test again i never want to learn again i never..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 327.76, "end": 382.72, "time_label": "5:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in school so i was hired in 2008 to go to xinjiang in south china and help the school shouldn't middle school build in actual international program to send kids abroad okay so this 2008 which was a long time ago and bac..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "note": "Jiang narrates a sequence from 2008 reform, to durable student activities, to regional success, to firing and later exclusion from management work.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 546.66, "end": 598.3, "time_label": "9:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay um 2008 i was the first person to do anything okay oh okay okay just i mean like like yeah similar yeah all right so the coffee house was an activity i set up which was very successful it's still there today guys i..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 747.48, "end": 814.456, "time_label": "12:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "very similar to this, okay, but after that, after four years of doing this and being very successful at this, I was never allowed to set up another program again. No one wanted me to work in management again, okay? Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "note": "Jiang explicitly marks his 2008 assumptions as a past position that he now says was wrong.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 904.47, "end": 970.25, "time_label": "15:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay? So, these are the players in the game. And if you want to understand game theory, you need to understand the motivations and interests of all the different players. That tells you why or how they will behave the w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 971.77, "end": 1056.22, "time_label": "16:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "All right? Teachers. Well, teachers wanted to do a good job. Right? They want to teach students. They love teaching. They love students. They just want to be given the space and the opportunity to teach what their passi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "note": "Jiang explicitly connects this answer to the previous class's superstructure discussion, making Game Theory #2 a continuation of Game Theory #1's method.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1770.61, "end": 1851.35, "time_label": "29:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. That's a really good question. When? Yeah. Okay. So what we discussed last class is the idea of superstructure, right? Superstructure. Sorry. Superstructure is just the macro picture of a society. It's demographic..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "note": "The packet contrasts Chinese schools in the 1980s with a 2025-2026 condition where wealth changes student and parent incentives.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1917.82, "end": 1978.2, "time_label": "31:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right? You pay them very well. You give them high status. And you give them a lot of autonomy and freedom because then they feel respected. And if you do that, the schools are great. And guess what, guys? In China, in m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2102.54, "end": 2171.83, "time_label": "35:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "That's why students work hard. If students work hard, teachers are motivated to teach well. And now you're having a time when, you know, today in 2025, 26, when parents have money. So it doesn't matter if you don't do w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "note": "The late lecture returns to Jiang's 2008 reform story, now reinterpreted not as a competence failure but as a norm-violation and ostracism risk.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2702.598, "end": 2771, "time_label": "45:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I was arguing against the norms, the values, the conventions of this country. And it's, and so if people believed in me, then they risked themselves being ostracized by the larger community. Okay? Does that make sense?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "note": "This source is part of a continuing Game Theory class sequence and points forward to the next class.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2903.98, "end": 2917.5, "time_label": "48:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Great. Does that make sense? Okay. So, so thank you. Any more questions? Okay, great. So, um, we will continue this next class. Okay." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "uncertainty_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "note": "ASR appears to render the school name and location imperfectly; the broader 2008 South China international-program setup is still clear.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 327.76, "end": 382.72, "time_label": "5:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "in school so i was hired in 2008 to go to xinjiang in south china and help the school shouldn't middle school build in actual international program to send kids abroad okay so this 2008 which was a long time ago and bac..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "note": "The phrase 'probably maybe even two years ago' is ASR-noisy, but the claim that the newspaper was an early high-school daily newspaper is intelligible.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 546.66, "end": 598.3, "time_label": "9:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "okay um 2008 i was the first person to do anything okay oh okay okay just i mean like like yeah similar yeah all right so the coffee house was an activity i set up which was very successful it's still there today guys i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "note": "The transcript says 'Australization,' but context indicates Jiang means ostracization or exile.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ks-muauq62e@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2636.27, "end": 2702.598, "time_label": "43:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Australization. Okay? Or basically just exile. Where you are no longer part of the group. They kick you out as a player. Okay? That's what people are afraid of. And that's why people are motivated by what they do becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }