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It is institutional survival.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the origin of the SAT", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "help Harvard be the best university in the world", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 419.47, "end": 477.32, "time_label": "6:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade and then you go and get and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 0, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 65.02, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good afternoon class. So this will be our last class before the break. We have a three -week break coming up. I hope that during these three weeks you have a chance to reflect on what we've learned because when we..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 67.13, "end": 134.11, "time_label": "1:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to explain to you why America has the world's most complicated admissions system. So in China, when you apply to university, you take the gaokao, you take an examination,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 134.11, "end": 203.54, "time_label": "2:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this time in history in England there's a major conflict between religious belief and the king okay the king is head of the Anglican Church which the official Church of England and there's no difference between the Angl..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 203.54, "end": 280.78, "time_label": "3:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "place called America it's far away go away there guys and leave me alone okay so the dissenters go as pilgrims to America to build their own theocracy what they believe to be the New Jerusalem or paradise on earth heave..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 280.78, "end": 344.94, "time_label": "4:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Bible so they needed places to study the Bible and so they founded Harvard and then Yale and then Princeton but over time as America became more wealthy it became also less religious and so the Ivy League became social..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 344.94, "end": 419.47, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "so it started state schools okay state schools what we call A &M okay you may have heard the term Texas A &M okay it means Texas agricultural these schools were built to train farmers engineers and soldiers okay trades..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 419.47, "end": 477.32, "time_label": "6:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade and then you go and get and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ] }, { "id": "character-is-the-screen", "heading": "Character Is The Screen", "time_range": "07:05-14:58", "summary": "Holistic admissions turns grades into only one input and uses character, secrecy, and discretion to protect institutional power.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "character-is-the-screen-001", "text": "Once Harvard wants bright outsiders and loyal alumni at the same time, grades cannot be the whole system. The new word is “holistic,” and the key content is “character.” Jiang’s reading is brutal: character is the moral mask that lets the school preserve alumni power and keep out groups it does not want, first Jews, now Asians.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "marks": [ { "text": "holistic", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "character", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "keep Asians out of Harvard", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "character-is-the-screen-002", "text": "The operating powers are secrecy and discretion. The school never tells you why it let you in or refused you, and it reserves the right to choose for institutional reasons. That is why the best applicant is not the smartest applicant. “Best” means most likely to succeed in a public, power-building way.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "marks": [ { "text": "I’ll never tell you why I let you in", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "time_label": "11:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "best just means the most likely to succeed", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "time_label": "11:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important fo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "time_label": "11:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "time_label": "11:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important fo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "character-is-the-screen-003", "text": "The admissions thought experiment makes the logic plain. The multigenerational Harvard legacy wins first. If he disappears, the world-class basketball player beats the math genius. Harvard does not want a brilliant future professor as much as it wants a president, celebrity, billionaire, or company head. Even rejected geniuses help by making the acceptance rate look better.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "marks": [ { "text": "three generations of Harvard", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 788.09, "end": 850.01, "time_label": "13:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Basketball player in America, okay? Okay. The third is the best student. And the fourth is the best math genius in the world. And the fourth is three generations of Harvard, okay? So your father, your grandfather, your..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "We don’t want professors", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "time_label": "14:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "people to apply so we can reject them", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "time_label": "14:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "time_label": "11:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important fo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 788.09, "end": 850.01, "time_label": "13:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Basketball player in America, okay? Okay. The third is the best student. And the fourth is the best math genius in the world. And the fourth is three generations of Harvard, okay? So your father, your grandfather, your..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "time_label": "14:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 425, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "time_label": "11:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "time_label": "11:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important fo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 788.09, "end": 850.01, "time_label": "13:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Basketball player in America, okay? Okay. The third is the best student. And the fourth is the best math genius in the world. And the fourth is three generations of Harvard, okay? So your father, your grandfather, your..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "time_label": "14:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 900.27, "end": 906.45, "time_label": "15:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Like, does all the admission officers in American college doing this intentionally?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 906.95, "end": 927.81, "time_label": "15:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, that's a really good question, okay? So, if you're the Ivy League, you do this, because everyone wants to go to the Ivy League. But if you're an average school, you're actually just trying to recruit students, oka..." } ] }, { "id": "harvard-as-venture-capital", "heading": "Harvard As Venture Capital", "time_range": "14:58-25:17", "summary": "The elite school wants asymmetric upside: a few world-changing winners matter more than many quietly successful graduates.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "harvard-as-venture-capital-001", "text": "A student asks why Yale picked Jiang. The answer begins with finance. Harvard and Yale are venture capital firms. They do not need the safe restaurant that returns half a million dollars a year. They want the half-formed AI-and-Bitcoin website that might become a billion-dollar company. The institution wants brand upside, not broad human development.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "marks": [ { "text": "first and foremost, a venture capital firm", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "we can make $1 billion", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "10 people succeed and 99 fail", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 930.05, "end": 932.23, "time_label": "15:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, why did Yale pick you?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "harvard-as-venture-capital-002", "text": "That is why Jiang’s ordinary Yale application becomes interesting only when read through background. Public Canadian school, decent rank, modest SAT, weak extracurriculars, boring Feynman essay, and teachers who found him aggressive: on the surface, nothing stellar. But underneath: poor immigrant, fee waiver, school transfer, long subway ride, social exclusion, and a discipline letter for trying to escape the poor school.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "marks": [ { "text": "a decent, but not a stellar application", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "poor immigrant in Canada", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1285.27, "end": 1342.91, "time_label": "21:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So how did I get in? Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from application that made them interested in me. The first is that I was poor, so I couldn't even afford the application fee. I..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "discipline letter", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1343.21, "end": 1404.675, "time_label": "22:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And guess what, guys? Canadians don't like that. Okay? Canadians want you to stay where you are, and that's it. So when I told my high school principal that I was going to transfer high school, she got very upset, and h..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1159.44, "end": 1222.42, "time_label": "19:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. So, my application. All right. So, I went to a public high school. It was good, but it's not a private high school. You get a better education at a private high school. Plus, it's in Canada. Okay? Which is li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1285.27, "end": 1342.91, "time_label": "21:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So how did I get in? Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from application that made them interested in me. The first is that I was poor, so I couldn't even afford the application fee. I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1343.21, "end": 1404.675, "time_label": "22:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And guess what, guys? Canadians don't like that. Okay? Canadians want you to stay where you are, and that's it. So when I told my high school principal that I was going to transfer high school, she got very upset, and h..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "harvard-as-venture-capital-003", "text": "Yale reads those signs as desperation, insecurity, and transgression. This is the hard psychological claim: the school wants people with a void in the heart because achievement can fill the void forever without ever satisfying it. It wants the applicant who may collapse, but may also change the world. 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Which is li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1285.27, "end": 1342.91, "time_label": "21:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So how did I get in? Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from application that made them interested in me. The first is that I was poor, so I couldn't even afford the application fee. 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So they saw the desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality,..." } ] }, { "id": "yale-is-the-hunger-games", "heading": "Yale Is The Hunger Games", "time_range": "25:17-35:09", "summary": "Admission does not end competition; it starts a deeper system that moves backward into high school and parenting.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "yale-is-the-hunger-games-001", "text": "The system is bad not because it fails to select trauma, but because it succeeds and then spreads the selection pressure outward. Yale is the Hunger Games. You arrive from being the best local student and become nobody among the most competitive people in the world. Classroom, clubs, secret societies, graduate school, Rhodes scholarships: every room is a judging room.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "marks": [ { "text": "traumatizing the world", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:meritocracy-converts-trauma" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1585.59, "end": 1638.27, "time_label": "26:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. Okay. So you're like, okay, well, this is fine, but... And what's wrong with the system, okay? Why would this be a bad thing? It works. Why would this be a bad thing? Well, the problem with this is... Because..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:meritocracy-converts-trauma", "valid": true, "concept": "education-soul-game", "title": null, "doc_title": "Education As A Soul Game", "doc_slug": "lens/education-as-a-soul-game", "url": "/lens/education-as-a-soul-game/#meritocracy-converts-trauma", "text": "Meritocracy converts trauma when elite schools seek wounded, hungry, transgressive applicants, then spread the same selection pressure backward into high school and parenting until love is conditional on performance.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ] } ] }, { "text": "Yale is actually the Hunger Games", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:meritocracy-converts-trauma" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? And it's possible, on an essay, you..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:meritocracy-converts-trauma", "valid": true, "concept": "education-soul-game", "title": null, "doc_title": "Education As A Soul Game", "doc_slug": "lens/education-as-a-soul-game", "url": "/lens/education-as-a-soul-game/#meritocracy-converts-trauma", "text": "Meritocracy converts trauma when elite schools seek wounded, hungry, transgressive applicants, then spread the same selection pressure backward into high school and parenting until love is conditional on performance.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ] } ] }, { "text": "winner-take-all system", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:meritocracy-converts-trauma" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1837.52, "end": 1894.51, "time_label": "30:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? But you're also competing for graduate school, for law school, for medical school, for scholarships like the Rhodes Scholarship, okay? 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Okay. So you're like, okay, well, this is fine, but... And what's wrong with the system, okay? Why would this be a bad thing? It works. Why would this be a bad thing? Well, the problem with this is... Because..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1641.59, "end": 1663.01, "time_label": "27:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So let's say if Harvard and Princeton are these college students, then why they're still so famous, because the system is just unreasonable and unequal for the students who have good grades." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1664.89, "end": 1718.34, "time_label": "27:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. All right. That's a really good question, okay? So why are Harvard students, Yale students, Princeton students so famous? Okay. The reason why is when you do investment, you don't do all risky investments, okay? Y..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? And it's possible, on an essay, you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1781.66, "end": 1836.34, "time_label": "29:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Have you read the book, The Hunger Games? It is a relentless competition. Because once you're in Yale, you're still competing. Okay? But now you're competing against the most competitive people in the world, okay? So ma..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1837.52, "end": 1894.51, "time_label": "30:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? But you're also competing for graduate school, for law school, for medical school, for scholarships like the Rhodes Scholarship, okay? So Yale, it sounds nice, but once you get in there, from the first day, it's a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "yale-is-the-hunger-games-002", "text": "The training moves backward. High school becomes Yale preparation. Parenting becomes high-school preparation. Healthy parenting says: I love you unconditionally. Meritocratic parenting says: perform first, then I will take you for ice cream. It neglects the child and demands the child at the same time. Most children are wounded by it; a few convert the wound into achievement.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "marks": [ { "text": "I love you unconditionally", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1894.51, "end": 1951.69, "time_label": "31:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? They're always looking to achieve. And that's what Yale wants. That's what Harvard wants, because these are the people who will be most successful in life, okay? They're not happy with $1 million. 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They're always looking to achieve. And that's what Yale wants. That's what Harvard wants, because these are the people who will be most successful in life, okay? They're not happy with $1 million. They want $1 bil..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1951.87, "end": 2021.05, "time_label": "32:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But the person will probably end up as a teacher, okay? Now you can also say to your child, I don't have time for you, but if you win the swimming competition, or you place first on your math test, or if the teacher say..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "yale-is-the-hunger-games-003", "text": "A student asks if Jiang would choose Yale again. Probably, he says, because poor people who want to move ahead now have few paths around the elite schools. The answer is not romantic. 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If you want to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "I do not plan to send my kids to the Ivy League", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2051.46, "end": 2101.56, "time_label": "34:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So that's a really good question. Would I go there if I had a second chance? And the answer is probably, okay? And the reason why is the system is set up that you don't really have a choice, right? 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Y..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? And it's possible, on an essay, you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1781.66, "end": 1836.34, "time_label": "29:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Have you read the book, The Hunger Games? It is a relentless competition. Because once you're in Yale, you're still competing. Okay? But now you're competing against the most competitive people in the world, okay? 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America rises from a weak university system to global dominance through research investment and the importation of German scientists after World War II. More Americans go to college. The civic promise would be equality. Jiang says the opposite happens: inequality rises, mobility falls, debt rises, and teenager depression rises.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the opposite has happened", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "you will not do better than your parents", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2234.22, "end": 2305.68, "time_label": "37:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is one of the most unequal societies in the world, even though over a third of its young people go and graduate from college. Okay? This is a graph of social mobility. Okay? So the graph, the top, this number shows you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "student debt", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "time_label": "38:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt c..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2101.78, "end": 2166.04, "time_label": "35:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The last thing I would do is have them in such a competitive, traumatic environment as the Ivy League. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. Any more questions? So thank you for your question. Any more..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2234.22, "end": 2305.68, "time_label": "37:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is one of the most unequal societies in the world, even though over a third of its young people go and graduate from college. Okay? This is a graph of social mobility. 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Acceptance drops, the endowment becomes enormous, and Harvard graduates dominate billionaire counts and elite organizations.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "marks": [ { "text": "create the modern meritocracy", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "set up to benefit Harvard", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Harvard and Ivy League dominate America today", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2647.96, "time_label": "42:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors. But they're everywhere. Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires, New York Times bestselling authors, Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges, senators. Okay? They're eve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "time_label": "38:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2435.84, "end": 2507.54, "time_label": "40:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, in the year 1940, 90 % of applicants to Harvard got accepted. Now, it's gone way down to 5%. Okay? Stanford is even lower. Okay? 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They're eve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "the-system-worked-for-harvard-003", "text": "The power does not stop at diplomas. It runs through clubs and secret societies, through Skull and Bones, through the financial crisis, through Obama’s hope-and-change promise, through Wall Street rescue, through anger that later flows to Trump. The meritocratic elite can speak for change while protecting the network that produced it.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "marks": [ { "text": "They’re both Yale Skull and Bones", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2714.62, "time_label": "44:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We're just average people. There's no way Harvard controls America. All right? Now, as I mentioned at Harvard, just going to Harvard is not enough. You have to join the elite social clubs, the social secret societies. S..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "friends of Wall Street", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "time_label": "46:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "banks got saved. The people got screwed over", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2714.62, "time_label": "44:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We're just average people. There's no way Harvard controls America. All right? Now, as I mentioned at Harvard, just going to Harvard is not enough. You have to join the elite social clubs, the social secret societies. S..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2715.32, "end": 2788.195, "time_label": "45:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're both Yale Skull and Bones. Okay? So it's a rigged game. Barack Obama, okay? Barack Obama, Columbia, went to Harvard Law School, but he promised hope and change. He told people in 2008 that the game is rigged aga..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "time_label": "46:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2959.23, "time_label": "48:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy the system. Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump. Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama. So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "the-system-worked-for-harvard-004", "text": "Obama, JD Vance, and Johnny Kim become examples of a final elite type: hyper-achieving, trauma-driven, adaptable, and hollow. The point is not that they lack accomplishments. It is that accomplishment can be made from dissociation. Trauma becomes energy, but the person becomes a puppet of the roles that reward him.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "marks": [ { "text": "soulless robots", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2959.93, "end": 3018.62, "time_label": "49:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump. Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump. Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama. It's a lot of people in the American political class. They're just soulless robots. Okay? This m..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "turned the trauma into an energy", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:meritocracy-converts-trauma" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:meritocracy-converts-trauma", "valid": true, "concept": "education-soul-game", "title": null, "doc_title": "Education As A Soul Game", "doc_slug": "lens/education-as-a-soul-game", "url": "/lens/education-as-a-soul-game/#meritocracy-converts-trauma", "text": "Meritocracy converts trauma when elite schools seek wounded, hungry, transgressive applicants, then spread the same selection pressure backward into high school and parenting until love is conditional on performance.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ] } ] }, { "text": "just a puppet", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2959.93, "end": 3018.62, "time_label": "49:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump. Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump. Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama. It's a lot of people in the American political class. They're just soulless robots. Okay? This m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 3020.77, "end": 3079.64, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All they know is a chief. Okay? So another example of this, this man's name is Johnny Kim. Okay? And he'll probably run for president of the United States one day or at least be a U.S. Senator. Why do I mention him? Gue..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 2109, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2101.78, "end": 2166.04, "time_label": "35:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The last thing I would do is have them in such a competitive, traumatic environment as the Ivy League. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. Any more questions? So thank you for your question. Any more..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2234.22, "end": 2305.68, "time_label": "37:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is one of the most unequal societies in the world, even though over a third of its young people go and graduate from college. Okay? This is a graph of social mobility. Okay? So the graph, the top, this number shows you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "time_label": "38:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2435.84, "end": 2507.54, "time_label": "40:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, in the year 1940, 90 % of applicants to Harvard got accepted. Now, it's gone way down to 5%. Okay? Stanford is even lower. Okay? So, now it's so hard to get into Harvard. At the same time, look at the cash of..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2507.78, "end": 2575.645, "time_label": "41:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you have MIT, Stanford, Pennsylvania, Columbia, Yale, Cornell, Princeton. Guess what, guys? Ivy League plus MIT. Okay? Okay. $30 million. Still, Harvard is number one. Okay? All right? So their graduates are t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2647.96, "time_label": "42:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors. But they're everywhere. Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires, New York Times bestselling authors, Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges, senators. Okay? They're eve..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2714.62, "time_label": "44:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We're just average people. There's no way Harvard controls America. All right? Now, as I mentioned at Harvard, just going to Harvard is not enough. You have to join the elite social clubs, the social secret societies. S..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2715.32, "end": 2788.195, "time_label": "45:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're both Yale Skull and Bones. Okay? So it's a rigged game. Barack Obama, okay? Barack Obama, Columbia, went to Harvard Law School, but he promised hope and change. He told people in 2008 that the game is rigged aga..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "time_label": "46:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2959.23, "time_label": "48:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy the system. Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump. Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama. So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2959.93, "end": 3018.62, "time_label": "49:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump. Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump. Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama. It's a lot of people in the American political class. They're just soulless robots. Okay? This m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 3020.77, "end": 3079.64, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All they know is a chief. Okay? So another example of this, this man's name is Johnny Kim. Okay? And he'll probably run for president of the United States one day or at least be a U.S. Senator. Why do I mention him? Gue..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." } ] }, { "id": "real-learning-against-the-actor", "heading": "Real Learning Against The Actor", "time_range": "53:24-1:04:52", "summary": "The Q&A turns from structural destruction of the Ivy League to individual refusal: real learning requires failure, reflection, resilience, and a mode not organized around rewards.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "real-learning-against-the-actor-001", "text": "The summary is deliberately excessive: mental illness, lost mobility, wealth concentration, political division, corruption, destroyed identity, bad management, and a soulless elite. “Thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world.” A student asks what can be done. Structurally, Jiang says, destroy the Ivy League or make it public. Personally, recognize the system and choose real learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "marks": [ { "text": "destroying the world", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3199.62, "end": 3204.03, "time_label": "53:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "destroy the Ivy League", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "choose to learn for yourself", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 3141.52, "end": 3199.56, "time_label": "52:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And if you don't succeed, your parents will come and complain. Okay? Traumatized children. Okay? Okay? If you look at the rate of mental illness in China, in America, it's just insane. Death of American dream and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3199.62, "end": 3204.03, "time_label": "53:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3205.25, "end": 3205.73, "time_label": "53:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3206.79, "end": 3231.98, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. Questions, guys. I know this was a lot to take in, but do you have any questions? You're all depressed and sad and shocked. Yep. We have a question. Thank you." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3233.6, "end": 3249.26, "time_label": "53:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Is there a way to get rid of all those bad things? All the bad impacts of this? I mean, is there some suggestions for us to help us better develop ourselves, not just using this system?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "real-learning-against-the-actor-002", "text": "Real learning has an older rhythm: open-mindedness, questions, failure, reflection, resilience, growth. Meritocracy breaks the rhythm because grades cannot tolerate failure, schedules erase free time, and every minute is organized against reflection. A poor student sent to the Ivy League can emerge arrogant, utilitarian, narrow, and unable to build real skill.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067" ], "marks": [ { "text": "failure is the best teacher", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "destroying reflection", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Yale traumatized me", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 3461.55, "end": 3513.534, "time_label": "57:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a really bad system, because if you're like me, okay, you're just a normal person, your family's not rich or powerful, and you go to Yale and Harvard, it actually makes you fail in life, okay? Let me explain why..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 3513.534, "end": 3574.88, "time_label": "58:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a great system if you come from a rich family, because this system trains you to go into power. But if you're just like me, and you need to work hard and be talented, and be committed to your passion in order to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "real-learning-against-the-actor-003", "text": "The last student question asks whether one can be open-minded, get good grades, and become rich at the same time. Jiang answers with two modes: altruistic connection, which supports creativity, passion, and love; and utilitarian reward focus, which chases grades. The trap is that Harvard asks applicants to perform both. You must claim a passion worth dying for, billionaire ambition, and loyalty to Harvard. The only people who can do that are actors.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "marks": [ { "text": "open-minded and get the grades and being rich", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3662.29, "time_label": "1:00:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, can we do both, like open -minded and get the grades and being rich? Okay. Is it a possible thing?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "altruistic mindset", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "impossible to both want to have really good grades as well as help the world", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "you’re basically an actor", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3662.29, "time_label": "1:00:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, can we do both, like open -minded and get the grades and being rich? Okay. Is it a possible thing?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "time_label": "1:01:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 3204, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 3141.52, "end": 3199.56, "time_label": "52:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And if you don't succeed, your parents will come and complain. Okay? Traumatized children. Okay? Okay? If you look at the rate of mental illness in China, in America, it's just insane. Death of American dream and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3199.62, "end": 3204.03, "time_label": "53:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3205.25, "end": 3205.73, "time_label": "53:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3206.79, "end": 3231.98, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. Questions, guys. I know this was a lot to take in, but do you have any questions? You're all depressed and sad and shocked. Yep. We have a question. Thank you." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3233.6, "end": 3249.26, "time_label": "53:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Is there a way to get rid of all those bad things? All the bad impacts of this? I mean, is there some suggestions for us to help us better develop ourselves, not just using this system?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 3461.55, "end": 3513.534, "time_label": "57:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a really bad system, because if you're like me, okay, you're just a normal person, your family's not rich or powerful, and you go to Yale and Harvard, it actually makes you fail in life, okay? Let me explain why..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 3513.534, "end": 3574.88, "time_label": "58:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a great system if you come from a rich family, because this system trains you to go into power. But if you're just like me, and you need to work hard and be talented, and be committed to your passion in order to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 3640.99, "end": 3650.11, "time_label": "1:00:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You don't need Harvard, Yale, and Princeton, all right? All right, any more questions, guys? Yep?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3662.29, "time_label": "1:00:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, can we do both, like open -minded and get the grades and being rich? Okay. Is it a possible thing?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "time_label": "1:01:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ] } ], "questions": [ { "question": "Do all American college admissions officers do this intentionally?", "asked_by": "student", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "answer": "Jiang says the Ivy League can act this way because everyone wants in, while average schools are mostly trying to recruit students and collect tuition.", "answer_refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 900.27, "end": 906.45, "time_label": "15:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Like, does all the admission officers in American college doing this intentionally?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 906.95, "end": 927.81, "time_label": "15:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, that's a really good question, okay? So, if you're the Ivy League, you do this, because everyone wants to go to the Ivy League. But if you're an average school, you're actually just trying to recruit students, oka..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says the Ivy League can act this way because everyone wants in, while average schools are mostly trying to recruit students and collect tuition.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 906.95, "end": 927.81, "time_label": "15:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, that's a really good question, okay? So, if you're the Ivy League, you do this, because everyone wants to go to the Ivy League. But if you're an average school, you're actually just trying to recruit students, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Why did Yale pick Jiang?", "asked_by": "student", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "answer": "He answers by treating Yale like a venture-capital investor: his visible application was only decent, but poverty, immigration, desperation, insecurity, and rule-breaking signaled risky world-changing upside.", "answer_refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 930.05, "end": 932.23, "time_label": "15:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, why did Yale pick you?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1153.19, "end": 1156.47, "time_label": "19:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the third is they will then judge my potential." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1158.72, "end": 1159.16, "time_label": "19:18", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1159.44, "end": 1222.42, "time_label": "19:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. So, my application. All right. So, I went to a public high school. It was good, but it's not a private high school. You get a better education at a private high school. Plus, it's in Canada. Okay? Which is li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1285.27, "end": 1342.91, "time_label": "21:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So how did I get in? Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from application that made them interested in me. The first is that I was poor, so I couldn't even afford the application fee. I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1343.21, "end": 1404.675, "time_label": "22:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And guess what, guys? Canadians don't like that. Okay? Canadians want you to stay where you are, and that's it. So when I told my high school principal that I was going to transfer high school, she got very upset, and h..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1476.46, "time_label": "23:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So again, they know all this, okay? They know I'm an average student, and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious. Okay? And that's why Yale let me in, because it's clear from this information that I had dissociati..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1476.88, "end": 1530.79, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I would need to go make $2 million. If I made $10 million, I would see people around me who had $100 million. I wouldn't be happy. And I would be like, I need to go make $1 billion, okay? So an insecure person sees the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1530.79, "end": 1584.94, "time_label": "25:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I said, I don't care. I'm going to get my good grades, and I'm going to get into the Ivy League. I don't need you guys, okay? So they saw the desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality,..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "He answers by treating Yale like a venture-capital investor: his visible application was only decent, but poverty, immigration, desperation, insecurity, and rule-breaking signaled risky world-changing upside.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1153.19, "end": 1156.47, "time_label": "19:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the third is they will then judge my potential." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1158.72, "end": 1159.16, "time_label": "19:18", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1159.44, "end": 1222.42, "time_label": "19:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. So, my application. All right. So, I went to a public high school. It was good, but it's not a private high school. You get a better education at a private high school. Plus, it's in Canada. Okay? Which is li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1285.27, "end": 1342.91, "time_label": "21:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So how did I get in? Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from application that made them interested in me. The first is that I was poor, so I couldn't even afford the application fee. I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1343.21, "end": 1404.675, "time_label": "22:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And guess what, guys? Canadians don't like that. Okay? Canadians want you to stay where you are, and that's it. So when I told my high school principal that I was going to transfer high school, she got very upset, and h..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1476.46, "time_label": "23:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So again, they know all this, okay? They know I'm an average student, and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious. Okay? And that's why Yale let me in, because it's clear from this information that I had dissociati..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1476.88, "end": 1530.79, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I would need to go make $2 million. If I made $10 million, I would see people around me who had $100 million. I wouldn't be happy. And I would be like, I need to go make $1 billion, okay? So an insecure person sees the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1530.79, "end": 1584.94, "time_label": "25:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I said, I don't care. I'm going to get my good grades, and I'm going to get into the Ivy League. I don't need you guys, okay? So they saw the desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Why are Harvard and Princeton still famous if the system is unreasonable and unequal for good students?", "asked_by": "student", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "answer": "He says elite schools diversify the portfolio: most admits are safe rich legacies or athletes, with a tiny share reserved for risky marginal applicants like him.", "answer_refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1641.59, "end": 1663.01, "time_label": "27:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So let's say if Harvard and Princeton are these college students, then why they're still so famous, because the system is just unreasonable and unequal for the students who have good grades." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1664.89, "end": 1718.34, "time_label": "27:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. All right. That's a really good question, okay? So why are Harvard students, Yale students, Princeton students so famous? Okay. The reason why is when you do investment, you don't do all risky investments, okay? Y..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? And it's possible, on an essay, you..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "He says elite schools diversify the portfolio: most admits are safe rich legacies or athletes, with a tiny share reserved for risky marginal applicants like him.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1664.89, "end": 1718.34, "time_label": "27:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. All right. That's a really good question, okay? So why are Harvard students, Yale students, Princeton students so famous? Okay. The reason why is when you do investment, you don't do all risky investments, okay? Y..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? And it's possible, on an essay, you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Would Jiang still go to Yale if he had a second chance?", "asked_by": "student", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "answer": "Probably, because the system gives poor people few alternatives for advancement; but he says he would not send his own children into the Ivy League.", "answer_refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2042.83, "end": 2050.33, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as you say, Yale gives you so many negative emotions, so will you still go there if you got a second chance?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2051.46, "end": 2101.56, "time_label": "34:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So that's a really good question. Would I go there if I had a second chance? And the answer is probably, okay? And the reason why is the system is set up that you don't really have a choice, right? If you want to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2101.78, "end": 2166.04, "time_label": "35:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The last thing I would do is have them in such a competitive, traumatic environment as the Ivy League. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. Any more questions? So thank you for your question. Any more..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Probably, because the system gives poor people few alternatives for advancement; but he says he would not send his own children into the Ivy League.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2051.46, "end": 2101.56, "time_label": "34:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So that's a really good question. Would I go there if I had a second chance? And the answer is probably, okay? And the reason why is the system is set up that you don't really have a choice, right? If you want to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2101.78, "end": 2166.04, "time_label": "35:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The last thing I would do is have them in such a competitive, traumatic environment as the Ivy League. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. Any more questions? So thank you for your question. Any more..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Can people get rid of the bad impacts and develop outside this system?", "asked_by": "student", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "answer": "Structurally, he says the Ivy League should be destroyed or made public; individually, he says to recognize the system, focus on real learning, and rebuild failure, reflection, and resilience.", "answer_refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3233.6, "end": 3249.26, "time_label": "53:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Is there a way to get rid of all those bad things? All the bad impacts of this? I mean, is there some suggestions for us to help us better develop ourselves, not just using this system?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Structurally, he says the Ivy League should be destroyed or made public; individually, he says to recognize the system, focus on real learning, and rebuild failure, reflection, and resilience.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Can we be open-minded, get good grades, and become rich at the same time?", "asked_by": "student", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "answer": "He answers with the altruistic and utilitarian modes: creativity and love come from altruistic connection, while grade-chasing belongs to reward focus, and the two cannot fully operate at once.", "answer_refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3662.29, "time_label": "1:00:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, can we do both, like open -minded and get the grades and being rich? Okay. Is it a possible thing?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "He answers with the altruistic and utilitarian modes: creativity and love come from altruistic connection, while grade-chasing belongs to reward focus, and the two cannot fully operate at once.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] } ], "source_notes": [ { "heading": "Attribution And Claims", "text": "This read preserves Jiang’s dated 2025-09-12 lecture argument. Claims about Harvard, Yale, admissions, ethnic exclusion, elite overrepresentation, Obama, Trump, JD Vance, Johnny Kim, and dissociation are presented as this lecture’s interpretation and rhetoric, not as independent verification by the episode page.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2647.96, "time_label": "42:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors. But they're everywhere. Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires, New York Times bestselling authors, Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges, senators. Okay? They're eve..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2959.23, "time_label": "48:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy the system. Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump. Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama. So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "heading": "Transcript Texture", "text": "The transcript has ASR roughness in names and phrases: “John Hopkins” appears for Johns Hopkins, “std” appears where the SAT is meant, and “soul-stiff personality disorder” likely reflects Jiang’s recurring dissociative-personality phrase. The public read avoids relying on damaged forms as exact quotations.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 419.47, "end": 477.32, "time_label": "6:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade and then you go and get and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }, "transcript": [ { "id": "seg-0001", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 65.02, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay, good afternoon class. So this will be our last class before the break. We have a three -week break coming up. I hope that during these three weeks you have a chance to reflect on what we've learned because when we come back we'll continue to build on the ideas that we've learned so far. And so today I want to talk about the meritocracy. The meritocracy means that people should succeed based on their talent, their ability, and their hard work. And in theory this sounds like a good idea. And in fact the school system is built around the idea of a meritocracy. The good students go to the best universities and then after they graduate they will get the very best jobs. That's the idea. But what I will show you today is that there are actually lots of problems with the meritocracy. And one of the problems I want to show you is that this area is actually destroying American society.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-001", "start": 0, "end": 1.36, "text": "Okay, good afternoon class.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-002", "start": 1.78, "end": 5.52, "text": "So this will be our last class before the break.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-003", "start": 5.64, "end": 7.28, "text": "We have a three -week break coming up.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-004", "start": 8.26, "end": 11.24, "text": "I hope that during these three weeks you have a chance to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-005", "start": 11.24, "end": 15.28, "text": "reflect on what we've learned because when we come back we'll continue", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-006", "start": 15.28, "end": 18.48, "text": "to build on the ideas that we've learned so far.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-007", "start": 18.84, "end": 21.72, "text": "And so today I want to talk about the meritocracy.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-008", "start": 23.2, "end": 30.36, "text": "The meritocracy means that people should succeed based on their talent,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-009", "start": 30.62, "end": 32.58, "text": "their ability, and their hard work.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-010", "start": 32.78, "end": 35.38, "text": "And in theory this sounds like a good idea.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-011", "start": 35.58, "end": 40.42, "text": "And in fact the school system is built around the idea of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-012", "start": 40.42, "end": 40.96, "text": "a meritocracy.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-013", "start": 41.52, "end": 45.64, "text": "The good students go to the best universities and then after they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-014", "start": 45.64, "end": 48.1, "text": "graduate they will get the very best jobs.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-015", "start": 48.74, "end": 49.58, "text": "That's the idea.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-016", "start": 50.04, "end": 53.46, "text": "But what I will show you today is that there are actually", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-017", "start": 53.46, "end": 56.42, "text": "lots of problems with the meritocracy.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-018", "start": 56.76, "end": 59.56, "text": "And one of the problems I want to show you is that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-019", "start": 59.56, "end": 60.02, "text": "this", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-020", "start": 60.02, "end": 65.02, "text": "area is actually destroying American society.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "e9ae2292cc02141ddcc637c3e75fe0b1f9f6977eac2406b4d6f59db2145540be", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0001", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=0s", "time_label": "0:00", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0002", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "start": 67.13, "end": 134.11, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to explain to you why America has the world's most complicated admissions system. So in China, when you apply to university, you take the gaokao, you take an examination, and then based on your test score, you get into the university. and this is a system that most countries use only in America it's a system that's complicated your transcript matters but so does your standardized test scores the SAT the TOEFL so does your extracurriculars so does teacher recommendation letters and so does essays in which you have to say to America I'm a really good person why does it matter if you're a good person okay so it's it's the world's most complicated admissions system so what I'll do first is explain to you why we have this system okay so we start off in England in the 1600s and at", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-001", "start": 67.13, "end": 70.29, "text": "So the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-002", "start": 70.29, "end": 78.07, "text": "explain to you why America has the world's 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should be no Pope there should be no King you should as an individual be able to access God directly and you do that by reading the Bible so at this time in history there's a major conflict between the Protestants the Puritans or the dissenters and the king and it leads to wars basically and so the solution is the king says to the dissenters hey there's this new", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-001", "start": 134.11, "end": 139.75, "text": "this time in history in England there's a major conflict between religious", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-002", "start": 140, "end": 146.68, "text": "belief and the king okay the king is head of the Anglican", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-003", "start": 146.68, "end": 152.86, "text": "Church which the official Church of England and there's no difference between", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-004", "start": 152.86, "end": 156.78, "text": "the Anglican Church and the Catholic 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"video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "start": 203.54, "end": 280.78, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "place called America it's far away go away there guys and leave me alone okay so the dissenters go as pilgrims to America to build their own theocracy what they believe to be the New Jerusalem or paradise on earth heaven on earth now one core belief of the Protestants is you must read the Bible in order to understand the mind of God therefore education literacy learning it is the divine imperative and that's why they established Harvard okay Harvard was a school designed to train people into the religion called ministers in order to study the Bible in order to spread the truth of the Bible now Harvard then would encourage the development of other universities Yale Princeton okay and collectively they would be known as the Independence Society of the United States. the Ivy League so this is how the Ivy League started because America was founded as a religious 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over time as America became more wealthy it became also less religious and so the Ivy League became social clubs and what I mean by that is these were just places where the rich of America went to become friends okay it was to build cohesion right and remember we discussed the idea of cohesion where you if you commit transgression you become more cohesive so these guys did not study they drank they dress up like girls they had wild parties they play football they took risks okay and they became uneducated and they became uneducated and they became uneducated and they became good friends and they they went on to become the leaders of America as America became much more diverse much bigger and much more wealthy it recognized that it need to educate its population and", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-001", "start": 280.78, "end": 285.34, "text": "Bible so they needed places to study the Bible and so they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-002", 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} ], "text_sha256": "8fc943a25fee1a5e03ba53f4cd2bd0089ce0f9654ddac4821b9403efa743f622", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0005", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=280s", "time_label": "4:40", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0006", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "start": 344.94, "end": 419.47, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "so it started state schools okay state schools what we call A &M okay you may have heard the term Texas A &M okay it means Texas agricultural these schools were built to train farmers engineers and soldiers okay trades people in order to help grow the American economy now and these the system was extremely successful America was able to industrialize really really quickly and most people went to these schools only the rich would go to the Ivy League because they were country clubs or social clubs over time America as we came to as began to industrialize more and more it recognized that it needed science and technology so it basically copied the best universities in Germany and Germany was at this at this time the main center of science and technology in the world and so they built them called research universities okay and a couple of the first research universities were to call the University", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-001", "start": 344.94, "end": 351.82, "text": "so it started state schools okay state schools what we call A", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-002", "start": 351.82, "end": 356.04, "text": "&M okay you may have heard the term Texas A &M okay", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-003", "start": 356.04, "end": 367.03, "text": "it means Texas agricultural these schools were built to train farmers engineers", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-004", "start": 367.03, "end": 373.95, "text": "and soldiers okay trades people in order to help grow the American", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-005", "start": 373.95, "end": 378.99, "text": "economy now and these the system was extremely successful America was able", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-006", "start": 378.99, "end": 384.45, "text": "to industrialize really really quickly and most people went to these schools", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-007", "start": 384.45, "end": 387.67, "text": "only the rich would go to the Ivy League because they were", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-008", "start": 387.67, "end": 393.01, "text": "country clubs or social clubs over time America as we came to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-009", "start": 393.01, "end": 396.63, "text": "as began to industrialize more and more it recognized that it needed", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-010", "start": 396.63, "end": 402.95, "text": "science and technology so it basically copied the best universities in Germany", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-011", "start": 402.95, "end": 406.97, "text": "and Germany was at this at this time the main center of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-012", "start": 406.97, "end": 409.81, "text": "science and technology in the world and so they built them called", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-013", "start": 409.81, "end": 418.21, "text": "research universities okay and a couple of the first research universities were", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-014", "start": 418.21, "end": 419.47, "text": "to call the University", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "1aeecf2f52fa16a8c3b87cb3537ada54877c654423fba7f6e7ab0375bc72f3ff", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0006", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=344s", "time_label": "5:44", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0007", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "start": 419.47, "end": 477.32, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade and then you go and get and get a good job and make good money if you were you want to be a professor or scientist you went to these research universities if you're a rich you went to these social clubs called the Ivy League and quite honestly it was a really good system and America should have stayed with this system but what happened was who's unhappy now about the system these guys right harvard young princeton because if you think about it over time they become less and less relevant because just because you're rich doesn't mean you're smart all the smart people are going to to chicago and john hopkins and so over time we can expect to call john", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-001", "start": 419.47, "end": 424.27, "text": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-002", "start": 424.27, "end": 429.47, "text": "nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-003", "start": 429.47, "end": 432.91, "text": "people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-004", "start": 432.91, "end": 434.89, "text": "and then you go and get and get a good job and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-005", "start": 434.89, "end": 437.63, "text": "make good money if you were you want to be a professor", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-006", "start": 437.63, "end": 442.37, "text": "or scientist you went to these research universities if you're a rich", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": 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472.48, "end": 475.68, "text": "to to chicago and john hopkins and so over time we can", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-014", "start": 475.68, "end": 477.32, "text": "expect to call john", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "3aa1b4fd7656516f174d95fdfbec09b6fe9305743c8da165ea834775b2bb50a8", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0007", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=419s", "time_label": "6:59", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0008", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this creates something called the sat okay this is the origin of the sat the std was founded as a scholarship program to identify the best and brightest students from all over america so that they can come to harvard and help harvard be the best university in the world okay but now who's angry about the system harvard's not happy that the best best students are going to chicago and john hopkins so they so they quit the sat and now the best students are coming to harvard now who's unhappy the rich kids right okay the alumni the legacies because before their kids just just their kids could just go to harvard and have a great time now it's hard", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-001", "start": 477.32, "end": 482.26, "text": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-002", "start": 482.26, "end": 487.44, "text": "to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-003", "start": 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"/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0008", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=477s", "time_label": "7:57", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0009", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to maintain good relations with its alumni so that's why it created a new system okay in this new system grades are not the only factor test scores are not the only factor now it's focused on holistic holistic okay the new one is holistic specifically character just being smart is not good enough you have to be a good person you have to be a strong and brave and a virtuous person okay so they have a new concept called character but this 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563.08, "end": 568.45, "text": "okay in this new system grades are not the only factor test", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-007", "start": 568.74, "end": 574.2, "text": "scores are not the only factor now it's focused on holistic holistic", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-008", "start": 574.71, "end": 580.6, "text": "okay the new one is holistic specifically character just being smart is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-009", "start": 580.6, "end": 583.2, "text": "not good enough you have to be a good person you have", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-010", "start": 583.2, "end": 588.75, "text": "to be a strong and brave and a virtuous person okay so", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-011", "start": 588.75, "end": 591.61, "text": "they have a new concept called character but this word was created", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-012", "start": 591.61, "end": 596.57, "text": "to basically keep jews out okay because jews are really smart but", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-013", "start": 596.57, "end": 599.77, "text": "jews like to read books so they're not good at sports and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-014", "start": 599.77, "end": 600.87, "text": "so like that's not", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "517281df1199f25d2947c7135b7ac3e59b974b99306570f848a84dc28e678823", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0009", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=543s", "time_label": "9:03", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0010", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's essays it's transcript it's teacher recommendations because they want to identify the jews and keep them out okay today we have the system to identify both the jews and the asians to keep them out yes they would even identify for your household like they will ask for your profile exactly exactly so all the information that they're looking at today is ethnicity your um They want to keep, they basically want to keep Asians out of Harvard, okay? It's that simple, all right? But I'll explain more as we go along, okay? All right? So the purpose of all these changes is to ensure that Harvard remains the institution of power in America. It doesn't make sense.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-001", "start": 600.87, "end": 604.71, "text": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-002", "start": 604.71, "end": 610.79, "text": "brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-003", "start": 610.88, "end": 613.38, "text": "and that's why we have the system that we have today where", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-004", "start": 613.38, "end": 617.48, "text": "it's not just test scores it's essays it's transcript it's teacher recommendations", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-005", "start": 617.48, "end": 620.54, "text": "because they want to identify the jews and keep them out okay", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-006", "start": 620.54, "end": 624.72, "text": "today we have the system to identify both the jews and the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-007", "start": 624.72, "end": 628.5, "text": "asians to keep them out yes they would even identify for your", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-008", "start": 628.5, "end": 632.96, "text": "household like they will ask for your profile exactly exactly so all", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-009", "start": 632.96, "end": 640.28, "text": "the information that they're looking at today is ethnicity your um They", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-010", "start": 640.28, "end": 643.28, "text": "want to keep, they basically want to keep Asians out of Harvard,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-011", "start": 643.4, "end": 645.7, "text": "okay? It's that simple, all right?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-012", "start": 645.8, "end": 648.02, "text": "But I'll explain more as we go along,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-013", "start": 648.1, "end": 649.26, "text": "okay? All right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-014", "start": 651, "end": 655.68, "text": "So the purpose of all these changes is to ensure that Harvard", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-015", "start": 655.68, "end": 659.84, "text": "remains the institution of power in America.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-016", "start": 660.26, "end": 661.1, "text": "It doesn't make sense.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "036fc6517eda06f210d6c187bd527d3706cf9e8546806306ba890a6ac70641f2", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0010", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=600s", "time_label": "10:00", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0011", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It wants a mix of students, okay? But I'll explain this later on. Okay, now in this new system, there are two key concepts. The first key concept is the idea of secrecy, okay? Secrecy just means like, I'll never tell you why I let you in or why I didn't let you in. I don't have to, okay? The other is the idea of discretion. Discretion means that I can, I can choose to let in for no reason, okay? So in China, if you get a really high score on the Gaokao, Beidai or Qinghua has to let you in. Not in America. You can be the best student in the world, they don't care. If they don't like you, they'll just say, we don't want you, okay?", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-001", "start": 661.44, "end": 663, "text": "Harvard's not interested in academics,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-002", "start": 663.24, "end": 664.42, "text": "it's interested in power.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-003", "start": 664.98, "end": 668.22, "text": "Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-004", "start": 668.22, "end": 670.06, "text": "the ones who are most likely to succeed.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-005", "start": 670.9, "end": 672.88, "text": "And that's why it doesn't want all Asians.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-006", "start": 673.02, "end": 674.26, "text": "It wants a mix of students,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-007", "start": 674.34, "end": 675.56, "text": "okay? But I'll explain this later on.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-008", "start": 675.82, "end": 678.24, "text": "Okay, now in this new system,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-009", "start": 678.4, "end": 680.22, "text": "there are two key concepts.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-010", "start": 680.64, "end": 683.88, "text": "The first key concept is the idea of secrecy,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-011", "start": 683.92, "end": 687.41, "text": "okay? Secrecy just means like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-012", "start": 687.47, "end": 690.93, "text": "I'll never tell you why I let you in or why I", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-013", "start": 690.93, "end": 691.45, "text": "didn't let you in.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-014", "start": 691.67, "end": 692.65, "text": "I don't have to, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-015", "start": 693.23, "end": 694.77, "text": "The other is the idea of discretion.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-016", "start": 697.61, "end": 700.44, "text": "Discretion means that I can,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-017", "start": 700.56, "end": 703.54, "text": "I can choose to let in for no reason,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-018", "start": 703.64, "end": 706.86, "text": "okay? So in China, if you get a really high score on", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-019", "start": 706.86, "end": 710.22, "text": "the Gaokao, Beidai or Qinghua has to let you in.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-020", "start": 710.96, "end": 712.28, "text": "Not in America.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-021", "start": 712.58, "end": 713.96, "text": "You can be the best student in the world,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-022", "start": 714.04, "end": 714.5, "text": "they don't care.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-023", "start": 714.74, "end": 715.7, "text": "If they don't like you,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-024", "start": 715.8, "end": 716, "text": "they'll", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-025", "start": 716, "end": 717.56, "text": "just say, we don't want you,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-026", "start": 717.66, "end": 717.995, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "9774cca5d0a420de3380f4594ed2bee4121cfdacc4ce37c37da0678a9ce99fa0", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0011", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=661s", "time_label": "11:01", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0012", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important for us to remember is, from Harvard's perspective, best just means the most likely to succeed, not necessarily the best academically orientated student, not the smartest student, okay? So let's run a thought experiment, okay? Let's just say that you are a Harvard admissions officer and you're presented with four students, okay? You're Harvard, the best university in the world, okay? And I give you four students. And you can only let in one student, okay? You tell me who you let in, and I'll tell you if you're a good admissions officer or not, okay? The first is the best math genius from China, okay? Everyone's like, nah. Second is the best basketball player in the world, okay?", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-001", "start": 717.995, "end": 721.68, "text": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-002", "start": 721.68, "end": 723.83, "text": "they'll never tell you, all right?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-003", "start": 723.97, "end": 729.17, "text": "And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-004", "start": 729.17, "end": 730.95, "text": "recruit the best students in the world.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-005", "start": 730.95, "end": 733.75, "text": "But what's important for us to remember is,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-006", "start": 733.95, "end": 738.49, "text": "from Harvard's perspective, best just means the most likely to succeed,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-007", "start": 739.15, "end": 743.45, "text": "not necessarily the best academically orientated student,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-008", "start": 743.59, "end": 744.85, "text": "not the smartest student, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-009", "start": 745.39, "end": 748.8, "text": "So let's run a thought experiment,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-010", "start": 748.98, "end": 754.18, "text": "okay? Let's just say that you are a Harvard admissions officer and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-011", "start": 754.18, "end": 755.38, "text": "you're presented with four students,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-012", "start": 755.52, "end": 758.7, "text": "okay? You're Harvard, the best university in the world,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-013", "start": 758.82, "end": 763.46, "text": "okay? And I give you four students.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-014", "start": 764.34, "end": 765.88, "text": "And you can only let in one student,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-015", "start": 765.96, "end": 767.88, "text": "okay? You tell me who you let in,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-016", "start": 768.04, "end": 770.26, "text": "and I'll tell you if you're a good admissions officer or not,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-017", "start": 770.36, "end": 776.44, "text": "okay? The first is the best math genius from China,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-018", "start": 776.62, "end": 780.46, "text": "okay? Everyone's like, nah.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-019", "start": 781.72, "end": 784.68, "text": "Second is the best basketball", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-020", "start": 784.68, "end": 787.65, "text": "player in the world, okay?", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "f9c574d18da30da7ad70dd69930ae31429d6e69fffa663909f3636535061ef1f", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0012", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=717s", "time_label": "11:57", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0013", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "start": 788.09, "end": 850.01, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Basketball player in America, okay? Okay. The third is the best student. And the fourth is the best math genius in the world. And the fourth is three generations of Harvard, okay? So your father, your grandfather, your great -grandfather went to Harvard. Who do you let in? You guys know the system. Exactly, okay? You don't even think about it. Like, I let in number four, okay? Because you know that in the world, he is the most likely to succeed. You're not interested in educating smart people, all you want to do is, graduate rich people, okay? So let's just say this guy doesn't exist. Then who do you let in? Exactly, yep, this guy, okay? Definitely not this guy, okay? Definitely not the math genius from China, because you know that he's probably going to end up as a math teacher, right? Math professor, we don't want that, okay?", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-001", "start": 788.09, "end": 791.96, "text": "Basketball player in America, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-002", "start": 793.18, "end": 796.99, "text": "Okay. The third is the best student.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-003", "start": 797.59, "end": 798.47, "text": "And the fourth is the best math genius in the world.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-004", "start": 800.86, "end": 806.4, "text": "And the fourth is three generations of Harvard,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-005", "start": 806.66, "end": 810.34, "text": "okay? So your father, your grandfather,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-006", "start": 810.52, "end": 811.84, "text": "your great -grandfather went to Harvard.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-007", "start": 811.96, "end": 812.48, "text": "Who do you let in?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-008", "start": 813.25, "end": 814.77, "text": "You guys know the system.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-009", "start": 815.15, "end": 816.17, "text": "Exactly, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-010", "start": 817.06, "end": 818.18, "text": "You don't even think about it.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-011", "start": 818.26, "end": 819.48, "text": "Like, I let in number four,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-012", "start": 819.56, "end": 822.22, "text": "okay? Because you know that in the world,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-013", "start": 822.46, "end": 825.08, "text": "he is the most likely to succeed.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-014", "start": 825.44, "end": 827.68, "text": "You're not interested in educating smart people,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-015", "start": 827.82, "end": 829.58, "text": "all you want to do is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-016", "start": 829.58, "end": 832.36, "text": "graduate rich people, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-017", "start": 832.46, "end": 834.98, "text": "So let's just say this guy doesn't exist.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-018", "start": 835.22, "end": 836.48, "text": "Then who do you let in?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-019", "start": 837.49, "end": 839.41, "text": "Exactly, yep, this guy, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-020", "start": 839.75, "end": 840.83, "text": "Definitely not this guy, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-021", "start": 841.19, "end": 842.59, "text": "Definitely not the math genius from China,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-022", "start": 842.73, "end": 845.99, "text": "because you know that he's probably going to end up as a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-023", "start": 845.99, "end": 847.57, "text": "math teacher, right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-024", "start": 847.87, "end": 849.67, "text": "Math professor, we don't want that,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-025", "start": 849.75, "end": 850.01, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "d02234a942c23916cb89cb594ddbb780cafa292f1e9b435891ac44c25ac454d6", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0013", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=788s", "time_label": "13:08", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0014", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the United States. That's what we want, okay? And, yeah, so either one of these two is fine. No, no, okay? We want these guys to apply because that helps us look better, right? We want people to apply so we can reject them so that our metrics look better, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, that's how the system works. All right. So, let me explain this. Let me explain why they do this, okay? Why is the system set like this? The best analogy for Harvard, Yale, and, sorry, go ahead.", "word_count": 133, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-001", "start": 850.01, "end": 852.57, "text": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-002", "start": 852.65, "end": 853.53, "text": "we don't want doctors.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-003", "start": 853.73, "end": 856.17, "text": "We want people who will be head of a company.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-004", "start": 856.35, "end": 859.85, "text": "We want people who will become a famous rock star,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-005", "start": 859.85, "end": 861.83, "text": "okay? One people who will become president of the United States.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-006", "start": 861.95, "end": 862.77, "text": "That's what we want, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-007", "start": 864.76, "end": 867.86, "text": "And, yeah, so either one of these two is fine.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-008", "start": 868.8, "end": 870.02, "text": "No, no, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-009", "start": 870.34, "end": 874.86, "text": "We want these guys to apply because that helps us look better,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-010", "start": 874.94, "end": 878.98, "text": "right? We want people to apply so we can reject them so", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-011", "start": 878.98, "end": 881.36, "text": "that our metrics look better,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-012", "start": 881.42, "end": 883.94, "text": "okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-013", "start": 884.16, "end": 885.56, "text": "Okay, that's how the system works.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-014", "start": 886, "end": 886.44, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-015", "start": 887.56, "end": 890.02, "text": "So, let me explain this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-016", "start": 890.04, "end": 891.12, "text": "Let me explain why they do this,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-017", "start": 891.2, "end": 893.96, "text": "okay? Why is the system set like this?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-018", "start": 894.28, "end": 896.42, "text": "The best analogy for Harvard,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-019", "start": 896.68, "end": 898.96, "text": "Yale, and, sorry, go ahead.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "b40d64992db7675b41b80dabd0074c3040462165d7cbb9cc6cd56941d9aa02a7", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0014", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=850s", "time_label": "14:10", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0015", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "start": 900.27, "end": 906.45, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Like, does all the admission officers in American college doing this intentionally?", "word_count": 12, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-001", "start": 900.27, "end": 906.45, "text": "Like, does all the admission officers in American college doing this intentionally?", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "cff51e26a2b2d34172e691ecad3e83e24f0365200ec9313c75161581a97c9bf2", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0015", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=900s", "time_label": "15:00", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0016", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "start": 906.95, "end": 927.81, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay, that's a really good question, okay? So, if you're the Ivy League, you do this, because everyone wants to go to the Ivy League. But if you're an average school, you're actually just trying to recruit students, okay? So, this is like the school, this is the mentality of admissions officers for elite schools. But most schools are just like, they want you to come in and pay the tuition, okay?", "word_count": 72, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-001", "start": 906.95, "end": 908.41, "text": "Okay, that's a really good question,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-002", "start": 908.47, "end": 911.45, "text": "okay? So, if you're the Ivy League,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-003", "start": 911.57, "end": 913.75, "text": "you do this, because everyone wants to go to the Ivy League.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-004", "start": 913.97, "end": 915.41, "text": "But if you're an average school,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-005", "start": 915.73, "end": 917.59, "text": "you're actually just trying to recruit students,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-006", "start": 917.73, "end": 920.29, "text": "okay? So, this is like the school,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-007", "start": 920.61, "end": 923.33, "text": "this is the mentality of admissions officers for elite schools.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-008", "start": 923.87, "end": 926.03, "text": "But most schools are just like,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-009", "start": 926.03, "end": 927.59, "text": "they want you to come in and pay the tuition,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-010", "start": 927.73, "end": 927.81, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "2bceee8d3c5b04b234f15c256f83d6d523a84ae094b2a844e648331c064ad47c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0016", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=906s", "time_label": "15:06", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0017", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "start": 930.05, "end": 932.23, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So, why did Yale pick you?", "word_count": 6, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-001", "start": 930.05, "end": 932.23, "text": "So, why did Yale pick you?", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "116d96bb3393d5ab3703e04b67fb4da03929333ff7f2e54017aa0457c7f63139", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0017", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=930s", "time_label": "15:30", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0018", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? And you tell me which option you pick. Option one is, I want to open a restaurant, and I need a million dollars from you, okay? But guess what, guys? My uncle works for the government. So, I can guarantee that he and his friends will come to my restaurant every single day. And so, there's no risk. There's absolutely no risk involved. I guarantee we'll make at least $500,000 a year. No risk. Easy money, okay? Number two is, I want to start a website that's AI and Bitcoin and all of this, okay? Problem is, I don't even know how to write code. I have no experience writing, doing a website. And my idea isn't really fleshed out. But if it works, we can make $1 billion, guys, okay?", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-001", "start": 932.77, "end": 934.13, "text": "Yeah, I'll explain later on,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-002", "start": 934.13, "end": 934.73, "text": "okay? All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-003", "start": 936.93, "end": 940.8, "text": "So, Harvard is, first and foremost,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-004", "start": 940.9, "end": 944.91, "text": "a venture capital firm, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-005", "start": 946.39, "end": 947.45, "text": "Your investment firm.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-006", "start": 947.81, "end": 950.65, "text": "So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-007", "start": 950.79, "end": 951.51, "text": "and I'll give you two options,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-008", "start": 951.61, "end": 953.89, "text": "okay? And you tell me which option you pick.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-009", "start": 954.19, "end": 957.31, "text": "Option one is, I want to open a restaurant,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-010", "start": 957.51, "end": 960.63, "text": "and I need a million dollars from you,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-011", "start": 960.75, "end": 965.51, "text": "okay? But guess what, guys?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-012", "start": 965.99, "end": 967.79, "text": "My uncle works for the government.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-013", "start": 968.29, "end": 972.05, "text": "So, I can guarantee that he and his friends will come to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-014", "start": 972.05, "end": 973.33, "text": "my restaurant every single day.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-015", "start": 973.89, "end": 975.91, "text": "And so, there's no risk.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-016", "start": 976.61, "end": 977.99, "text": "There's absolutely no risk involved.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-017", "start": 978.25, "end": 983.06, "text": "I guarantee we'll make at least $500,000 a year.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-018", "start": 983.36, "end": 984.24, "text": "No risk.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-019", "start": 984.24, "end": 985.46, "text": "Easy money, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-020", "start": 986.18, "end": 991.94, "text": "Number two is, I want to start a website that's AI and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-021", "start": 991.94, "end": 997.14, "text": "Bitcoin and all of this,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-022", "start": 997.24, "end": 1000.84, "text": "okay? 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Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Which option do you take? You always take this, guys, okay? Right? Because, like, you don't need $500,000. That's boring. You want $1 billion. And that's the mentality of Harvard, you understand? They want to take a risk on you. They don't want students who are solid and who become a professor. That's boring, okay? They want crazy people who will change the world because that makes Harvard look good. Okay, another way of saying this is, they rather, so, they rather have a class where 10 people succeed and 99 fail rather than 1,000 people succeed slightly. Does that make sense? Okay? Why? Because we only remember the 10 people who succeed.", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-001", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1015.29, "text": "So, option one is, low risk,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-002", "start": 1015.47, "end": 1017.69, "text": "really good plan, solid returns,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-003", "start": 1017.87, "end": 1019.43, "text": "$500,000 a year, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-004", "start": 1019.77, "end": 1023.79, "text": "Option two is, concept, vague idea,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-005", "start": 1024.15, "end": 1025.81, "text": "I have absolutely no experience doing any of this,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-006", "start": 1025.91, "end": 1027.91, "text": "but we could possibly make $1 billion,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-007", "start": 1028.11, "end": 1030.25, "text": "okay? Which option do you take?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-008", "start": 1032.27, "end": 1033.71, "text": "You always take this, guys,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-009", "start": 1033.81, "end": 1034.97, "text": "okay? Right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-010", "start": 1035.03, "end": 1037.07, "text": "Because, like, you don't need $500,000.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-011", "start": 1037.33, "end": 1038.01, "text": "That's boring.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-012", "start": 1038.17, "end": 1039.11, "text": "You want $1 billion.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-013", "start": 1039.55, "end": 1041.13, "text": "And that's the mentality of Harvard,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-014", "start": 1041.37, "end": 1041.99, "text": "you understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-015", "start": 1042.84, "end": 1044.7, "text": "They want to take a risk on you.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-016", "start": 1044.7, "end": 1049.73, "text": "They don't want students who are solid and who become a professor.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-017", "start": 1049.91, "end": 1050.81, "text": "That's boring, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-018", "start": 1050.95, "end": 1055.97, "text": "They want crazy people who will change the world because that makes", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-019", "start": 1055.97, "end": 1056.95, "text": "Harvard look good.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-020", "start": 1057.29, "end": 1058.59, "text": "Okay, another way of saying this is,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-021", "start": 1058.77, "end": 1065.12, "text": "they rather, so, they rather have a class where 10 people succeed", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-022", "start": 1065.12, "end": 1070.44, "text": "and 99 fail rather than 1,000 people succeed slightly.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-023", "start": 1070.78, "end": 1071.8, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-024", "start": 1072.35, "end": 1073.41, "text": "Okay? Why?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-025", "start": 1073.41, "end": 1075.91, "text": "Because we only remember the 10 people", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-026", "start": 1075.91, "end": 1076.37, "text": "who succeed.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "068ea0cedb882f16456da5f9d17ebb2d39506cefdef56091fcb34084ec5b5ab1", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0019", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1012s", "time_label": "16:52", "tags": [ "answer", "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0020", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. Okay? All right. Does that make sense? All right. Now, how do we know if they succeed or not if you're Harvard? Well, remember the class that we learned last class, which is dissociative personality disorder. And what we discussed last class is, in a game, people who are most likely to succeed have this characteristic. Okay? And so, I'll explain why using myself as an example, because I got into Yale. Okay? So, what we're going to do is this. We're going to examine my application to Yale. And then we're going to look at how the admissions officers would perceive my application. And how they would judge my potential. Okay? So, three things. The first is what my application actually says. 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So, my application. All right. So, I went to a public high school. It was good, but it's not a private high school. You get a better education at a private high school. Plus, it's in Canada. Okay? Which is like, everyone's kind of stupid in Canada. Okay? So, and I was like top 10 of 200 kids. So, it's good, but it's not number one. It's not number two. It's just top 10. Okay? I was number 10. My SAT was 1400 out of 1600. And it's like decent. But, you know, people in China get 1550, 1500 easily. Okay? So, not that great. I was on a soccer team. I was not athletic. The soccer team just needed players. So, I signed up. Okay? I was also editor of the school newspaper. Okay? And I was captain of a quiz team called Reach for the Top. Okay? So, that's a Canadian thing. But I was captain of it.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-001", "start": 1159.44, "end": 1159.98, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-002", "start": 1160.02, "end": 1160.6, "text": "So, my application.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-003", "start": 1160.9, "end": 1161.44, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-004", "start": 1161.46, "end": 1165.38, "text": "So, I went to a public high school.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-005", "start": 1166.06, "end": 1168.16, "text": "It was good, but it's not a private high school.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-006", "start": 1168.22, "end": 1169.7, "text": "You get a better education at a private high school.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-007", "start": 1169.84, "end": 1171.52, "text": "Plus, it's in Canada.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-008", "start": 1171.68, "end": 1174.58, "text": "Okay? Which is like, everyone's kind of stupid in Canada.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-009", "start": 1174.82, "end": 1178.08, "text": "Okay? So, and I was like top 10 of 200 kids.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-010", "start": 1178.48, "end": 1181.48, "text": "So, it's good, but it's not number one.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-011", "start": 1181.62, "end": 1182.36, "text": "It's not number two.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-012", "start": 1182.44, "end": 1183.14, "text": "It's just top 10.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-013", "start": 1183.28, "end": 1183.94, "text": "Okay? 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All right? On my essay, I wrote about Richard Feynman, who is a physicist. It was a really boring essay. It was, I mean, like anyone could have written it. I mean, like ChatGPT could have written it. Okay? It was just a bad essay. My teachers, I mean, they liked me, but they really didn't like me because I seemed aggressive to them. You know? I wanted grades too much. So, the word they use is ambitious. They thought I was ambitious. Ambitious. Ambitious is a dirty word in Canada. It means you don't play by the rules. It means you're too aggressive. It means you're too pushy. Okay? All right? So, this is my application to Yale. As you can see, it is a decent, but not a stellar application.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-001", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1223.18, "text": "I organized it.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-002", "start": 1223.22, "end": 1224.86, "text": "Okay? 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You're not like head of student government or you're not head", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-005", "start": 1231.48, "end": 1233.02, "text": "of model United Nations.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-006", "start": 1233.9, "end": 1234.48, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-007", "start": 1235.9, "end": 1238.24, "text": "On my essay, I wrote about Richard Feynman,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-008", "start": 1238.38, "end": 1240.28, "text": "who is a physicist.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-009", "start": 1240.92, "end": 1243.64, "text": "It was a really boring essay.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-010", "start": 1244.32, "end": 1246.62, "text": "It was, I mean, like anyone could have written it.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-011", "start": 1246.76, "end": 1249.22, "text": "I mean, like ChatGPT could have written it.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-012", "start": 1249.28, "end": 1250.64, "text": "Okay? It was just a bad essay.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-013", "start": 1251.44, "end": 1254.08, "text": "My teachers, I mean, they liked me,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-014", "start": 1254.18, "end": 1257.88, "text": "but they really didn't like me because I seemed aggressive to them.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-015", "start": 1258, "end": 1258.44, "text": "You know?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-016", "start": 1258.54, "end": 1259.84, "text": "I wanted grades too much.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-017", "start": 1259.98, "end": 1261.62, "text": "So, the word they use is ambitious.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-018", "start": 1263.1, "end": 1264.36, "text": "They thought I was ambitious.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-019", "start": 1264.74, "end": 1266.54, "text": "Ambitious. Ambitious is a dirty word in Canada.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-020", "start": 1266.76, "end": 1268.1, "text": "It means you don't play by the rules.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-021", "start": 1268.42, "end": 1269.76, "text": "It means you're too aggressive.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-022", "start": 1270.24, "end": 1271.9, "text": "It means you're too pushy.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-023", "start": 1271.92, "end": 1272.98, "text": "Okay? All right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-024", "start": 1273.04, "end": 1275.5, "text": "So, this is my application to Yale.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-025", "start": 1275.66, "end": 1278.18, "text": "As you can see, it is", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-026", "start": 1278.18, "end": 1283.87, "text": "a decent, but not a stellar application.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "5a7334744fcd42ab808a9c1e4f7f1efc007ff4160d0113a68d9c43a956e97c9c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0024", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1222s", "time_label": "20:22", "tags": [ "answer", "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0025", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "start": 1285.27, "end": 1342.91, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So how did I get in? Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from application that made them interested in me. The first is that I was poor, so I couldn't even afford the application fee. I had to apply for a waiver for my application, okay? So I was poor because I was an immigrant. So I was born in China in 1976, and my family went over in 1983 when I was like six. Okay? So I was a poor immigrant in Canada. I transferred high school. So I was in a poor high school, then I went to a rich high school. Okay? So basically I switched neighborhoods. My family lived in a poor neighborhood, and then I applied to go to a rich high school in a different neighborhood. So I had to take the subway there every day, and I spent like half an hour on the subway.", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-001", "start": 1285.27, "end": 1286.79, "text": "So how did I get in?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-002", "start": 1287.37, "end": 1292.59, "text": "Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-003", "start": 1292.59, "end": 1294.67, "text": "application that made them interested in me.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-004", "start": 1295.49, "end": 1296.89, "text": "The first is that I was poor,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-005", "start": 1297.03, "end": 1300.14, "text": "so I couldn't even afford the application fee.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-006", "start": 1300.54, "end": 1306.48, "text": "I had to apply for a waiver for my application,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-007", "start": 1306.62, "end": 1312.05, "text": "okay? So I was poor because I was an immigrant.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-008", "start": 1312.31, "end": 1314.97, "text": "So I was born in China in 1976,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-009", "start": 1315.41, "end": 1319.51, "text": "and my family went over in 1983 when I was like six.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-010", "start": 1319.95, "end": 1323.97, "text": "Okay? So I was a poor immigrant in Canada.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-011", "start": 1324.47, "end": 1326.01, "text": "I transferred high school.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-012", "start": 1326.01, "end": 1327.95, "text": "So I was in a poor high school,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-013", "start": 1328.13, "end": 1331.67, "text": "then I went to a rich high school.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-014", "start": 1331.99, "end": 1333.91, "text": "Okay? So basically I switched neighborhoods.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-015", "start": 1334.33, "end": 1335.87, "text": "My family lived in a poor neighborhood,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-016", "start": 1336.09, "end": 1338.37, "text": "and then I applied to go to a rich high school in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-017", "start": 1338.37, "end": 1338.83, "text": "a different neighborhood.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-018", "start": 1338.97, "end": 1341.35, "text": "So I had to take the subway there every day,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-019", "start": 1341.53, "end": 1342.27, "text": "and I spent like half an", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-020", "start": 1342.27, "end": 1342.91, "text": "hour on the subway.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "6e61bbfc88faa7cb415012e5fcc3ae51c5a4a071550104a99236fcad11655c18", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0025", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1285s", "time_label": "21:25", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0026", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "start": 1343.21, "end": 1404.675, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And guess what, guys? Canadians don't like that. Okay? Canadians want you to stay where you are, and that's it. So when I told my high school principal that I was going to transfer high school, she got very upset, and he said that, I'm going to write a discipline letter, okay, a discipline letter, and it's a very serious thing, and I'm going to put it in your folder so that when you apply to university, they will know that you were suspended from the school. And that's basically like a really bad thing, okay? So I got a discipline letter, and when I went to the rich high school, I had no friends. Why? Because they didn't like me, because they don't like it when someone new comes in. Okay? I didn't know their culture, I'm sort of like ambitious, and I was grade -grubbing, but the thing is, I was desperate because my family was very poor, and I wanted a better life, okay?", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-001", "start": 1343.21, "end": 1344.25, "text": "And guess what, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-002", "start": 1344.95, "end": 1346.07, "text": "Canadians don't like that.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-003", "start": 1346.43, "end": 1349.01, "text": "Okay? Canadians want you to stay where you are,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-004", "start": 1349.13, "end": 1350.09, "text": "and that's it.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-005", "start": 1350.45, "end": 1353.65, "text": "So when I told my high school principal that I was going", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-006", "start": 1353.65, "end": 1356.91, "text": "to transfer high school, she got very upset,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-007", "start": 1357.09, "end": 1360.71, "text": "and he said that, I'm going to write a discipline letter,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-008", "start": 1360.85, "end": 1362.87, "text": "okay, a discipline letter, and it's a very serious thing,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-009", "start": 1362.99, "end": 1366.82, "text": "and I'm going to put it in your folder so that when", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-010", "start": 1366.82, "end": 1370.78, "text": "you apply to university, they will know that you were suspended from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-011", "start": 1370.78, "end": 1371.18, "text": "the school.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-012", "start": 1371.86, "end": 1375.04, "text": "And that's basically like a really bad thing,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-013", "start": 1375.12, "end": 1382.02, "text": "okay? So I got a discipline letter,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-014", "start": 1382.14, "end": 1383.6, "text": "and when I went to the rich high school,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-015", "start": 1383.84, "end": 1385.26, "text": "I had no friends.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-016", "start": 1385.5, "end": 1388.03, "text": "Why? Because they didn't like me,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-017", "start": 1388.05, "end": 1390.27, "text": "because they don't like it when someone new comes in.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-018", "start": 1390.84, "end": 1392.28, "text": "Okay? I didn't know their culture,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-019", "start": 1392.58, "end": 1395.14, "text": "I'm sort of like ambitious,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-020", "start": 1395.42, "end": 1397.08, "text": "and I was grade -grubbing,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-021", "start": 1397.1, "end": 1401.04, "text": "but the thing is, I was desperate because my", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-022", "start": 1401.04, "end": 1403.86, "text": "family was very poor, and I wanted a better life,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-023", "start": 1403.96, "end": 1404.675, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "b0c4aabcdebf8d96f9de5a16c40606ae0f3f668edc234613023a458bba2d815c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0026", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1343s", "time_label": "22:23", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0027", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1476.46, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? So again, they know all this, okay? They know I'm an average student, and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious. Okay? And that's why Yale let me in, because it's clear from this information that I had dissociative personality disorder, okay? What does that mean? It means, first of all, I'm desperate, okay? Desperate means like, if I don't get into Yale, I'll probably kill myself. I mean, if I didn't get into Yale, I would drown. I couldn't breathe. It was a life or death issue for me. They can see the desperation. They want that, okay? Second thing is, I was insecure, okay? If you're an insecure person, it means you're not happy with who you are. It means there's a void in your heart, and therefore, the way to fill the insecurity is through achievement, okay? So if I made $1 million, I wouldn't be happy.", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-001", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1405.39, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-002", "start": 1407.27, "end": 1410.25, "text": "So again, they know all this,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-003", "start": 1410.39, "end": 1412.85, "text": "okay? They know I'm an average student,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-004", "start": 1413.05, "end": 1415.51, "text": "and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-005", "start": 1416.88, "end": 1420.62, "text": "Okay? And that's why Yale let me in,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-006", "start": 1420.74, "end": 1426.88, "text": "because it's clear from this information that I had dissociative personality disorder,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-007", "start": 1431.02, "end": 1432.22, "text": "okay? What does that mean?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-008", "start": 1433.26, "end": 1434.96, "text": "It means, first of all,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-009", "start": 1435, "end": 1437.2, "text": "I'm desperate, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-010", "start": 1439.05, "end": 1441.13, "text": "Desperate means like, if I don't get into Yale,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-011", "start": 1441.23, "end": 1441.87, "text": "I'll probably kill myself.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-012", "start": 1442.21, "end": 1444.27, "text": "I mean, if I didn't get into Yale,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-013", "start": 1444.37, "end": 1445.01, "text": "I would drown.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-014", "start": 1445.15, "end": 1445.87, "text": "I couldn't breathe.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-015", "start": 1446.21, "end": 1449.19, "text": "It was a life or death issue for me.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-016", "start": 1449.33, "end": 1450.21, "text": "They can see the desperation.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-017", "start": 1450.51, "end": 1451.37, "text": "They want that, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-018", "start": 1451.37, "end": 1456.33, "text": "Second thing is, I was insecure,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-019", "start": 1456.65, "end": 1459.57, "text": "okay? If you're an insecure person,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-020", "start": 1459.79, "end": 1462.59, "text": "it means you're not happy with who you are.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-021", "start": 1462.71, "end": 1464.43, "text": "It means there's a void in your heart,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-022", "start": 1464.55, "end": 1469.87, "text": "and therefore, the way to fill the insecurity is through achievement,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-023", "start": 1470.19, "end": 1473.81, "text": "okay? So if I made $1 million,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-024", "start": 1474.01, "end": 1476.08, "text": "I wouldn't", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-025", "start": 1476.08, "end": 1476.46, "text": "be happy.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "0e8ce45b1296aeef2c5afa720aa41fb8b8ff3fa8e516733448e7c1e2667db92c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0027", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1404s", "time_label": "23:24", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0028", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "start": 1476.88, "end": 1530.79, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "I would need to go make $2 million. If I made $10 million, I would see people around me who had $100 million. I wouldn't be happy. And I would be like, I need to go make $1 billion, okay? So an insecure person sees the world as a competition, and you're always achieving and achieving, okay? And that's how you succeed, okay? And the third thing is, I was not a moral person, okay? I was ready to break the rules in order to succeed, transgressive, okay? So I was not supposed to leave my poor high school and go to the rich high school. That's breaking the rules in Canada. It's not illegal, but you're not supposed to do that, and I didn't care. The principal said I couldn't do that. I said to him, screw off, I'm still going to do it. I went to the rich high school, everyone said to me, you're not welcome.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-001", "start": 1476.88, "end": 1478.58, "text": "I would need to go make $2 million.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-002", "start": 1479.2, "end": 1480.28, "text": "If I made $10 million,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-003", "start": 1480.62, "end": 1482.8, "text": "I would see people around me who had $100 million.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-004", "start": 1482.98, "end": 1483.08, "text": "I wouldn't be happy.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-005", "start": 1483.1, "end": 1483.98, "text": "And I would be like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-006", "start": 1484.06, "end": 1485.74, "text": "I need to go make $1 billion,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-007", "start": 1486.04, "end": 1491.22, "text": "okay? So an insecure person sees the world as a competition,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-008", "start": 1491.46, "end": 1499.54, "text": "and you're always achieving and achieving,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-009", "start": 1499.78, "end": 1501.28, "text": "okay? And that's how you succeed,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-010", "start": 1501.52, "end": 1504.84, "text": "okay? And the third thing is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-011", "start": 1505.1, "end": 1508.02, "text": "I was not a moral person,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-012", "start": 1508.14, "end": 1512.64, "text": "okay? I was ready to break the rules in order to succeed,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-013", "start": 1512.68, "end": 1514.08, "text": "transgressive, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-014", "start": 1514.08, "end": 1517.38, "text": "So I was not supposed to leave my poor high school and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-015", "start": 1517.38, "end": 1518.26, "text": "go to the rich high school.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-016", "start": 1518.34, "end": 1519.36, "text": "That's breaking the rules in Canada.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-017", "start": 1519.56, "end": 1521.42, "text": "It's not illegal, but you're not supposed to do that,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-018", "start": 1521.54, "end": 1522.46, "text": "and I didn't care.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-019", "start": 1523.2, "end": 1524.66, "text": "The principal said I couldn't do that.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-020", "start": 1524.74, "end": 1526.04, "text": "I said to him, screw off,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-021", "start": 1526.16, "end": 1527.1, "text": "I'm still going to do it.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-022", "start": 1527.85, "end": 1529.17, "text": "I went to the rich high school,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-023", "start": 1529.45, "end": 1530.59, "text": "everyone said to me, you're not", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-024", "start": 1530.59, "end": 1530.79, "text": "welcome.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "9a21da58c4f73a991e3915f60c16af27b6e553c4da0ae94aeacb54a364910a5e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0028", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1476s", "time_label": "24:36", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0029", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "start": 1530.79, "end": 1584.94, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "I said, I don't care. I'm going to get my good grades, and I'm going to get into the Ivy League. I don't need you guys, okay? So they saw the desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality, and this is part... Okay? This is all part of dissociative personality disorder, and that's why they let me in, because it's possible I go crazy, okay? It's possible I become depressed, but it's also possible I change the world, okay? Does that make sense? That's how they think, because they're a venture capital firm. They're looking for the riskiest investment with the best possible return. Looking for people who can become president of the United States, who can change the world, who can make a name for themselves, because if they do that, that makes Yale look good. So you remember the name, okay? It's all about brand name recognition, okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-001", "start": 1530.79, "end": 1531.79, "text": "I said, I don't care.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-002", "start": 1532.09, "end": 1533.17, "text": "I'm going to get my good grades,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-003", "start": 1533.25, "end": 1534.97, "text": "and I'm going to get into the Ivy League.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-004", "start": 1535.05, "end": 1535.81, "text": "I don't need you guys,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-005", "start": 1535.97, "end": 1538.35, "text": "okay? So they saw the desperation,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-006", "start": 1538.63, "end": 1542.57, "text": "they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-007", "start": 1543.09, "end": 1544.15, "text": "and this is part...", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-008", "start": 1544.15, "end": 1547.45, "text": "Okay? This is all part of dissociative personality disorder,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-009", "start": 1547.73, "end": 1549.91, "text": "and that's why they let me in,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-010", "start": 1550.01, "end": 1552.45, "text": "because it's possible I go crazy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-011", "start": 1552.73, "end": 1556.15, "text": "okay? 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Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-014", "start": 1562.15, "end": 1564.37, "text": "That's how they think, because they're a venture capital firm.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-015", "start": 1564.47, "end": 1568.29, "text": "They're looking for the riskiest investment with the best possible return.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-016", "start": 1569.34, "end": 1573.16, "text": "Looking for people who can become president of the United States,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-017", "start": 1573.22, "end": 1574.22, "text": "who can change the world,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-018", "start": 1574.22, "end": 1576.48, "text": "who can make a name for themselves,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-019", "start": 1576.76, "end": 1577.7, "text": "because if they do that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-020", "start": 1577.82, "end": 1579.5, "text": "that makes Yale look good.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-021", "start": 1579.82, "end": 1580.9, "text": "So you remember the name,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-022", "start": 1580.96, "end": 1582.92, "text": "okay? It's all about brand name recognition,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-023", "start": 1583.3, "end": 1584.94, "text": "okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "64046d617ae30674cf4ff3e20d40679b5e13129df185a98621620c8e1fa6091e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0029", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1530s", "time_label": "25:30", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0030", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "start": 1585.59, "end": 1638.27, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "All right. Okay. So you're like, okay, well, this is fine, but... And what's wrong with the system, okay? Why would this be a bad thing? It works. Why would this be a bad thing? Well, the problem with this is... Because Yale, Harvard, and Princeton are so powerful, not only are they looking for people with trauma, okay? I was traumatized as a child, but they're also traumatizing the world, okay? If that makes sense, all right? So the meritocracy exists to find people with trauma, and because it exists, it's traumatizing the world, okay? So let me explain how and why. All right. Any questions so far? Is this all clear? Yeah?", "word_count": 114, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-001", "start": 1585.59, "end": 1586.19, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-002", "start": 1587.4, "end": 1589.58, "text": "Okay. So you're like, okay,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-003", "start": 1589.66, "end": 1592.12, "text": "well, this is fine, but...", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-004", "start": 1592.12, "end": 1593.76, "text": "And what's wrong with the system,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-005", "start": 1593.94, "end": 1595.88, "text": "okay? Why would this be a bad thing?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-006", "start": 1595.98, "end": 1596.58, "text": "It works.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-007", "start": 1596.76, "end": 1598.16, "text": "Why would this be a bad thing?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-008", "start": 1598.66, "end": 1602.66, "text": "Well, the problem with this is...", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-009", "start": 1602.66, "end": 1605.92, "text": "Because Yale, Harvard, and Princeton are so powerful,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-010", "start": 1606.16, "end": 1611.6, "text": "not only are they looking for people with trauma,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-011", "start": 1611.84, "end": 1614.26, "text": "okay? I was traumatized as a child,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-012", "start": 1614.4, "end": 1617.82, "text": "but they're also traumatizing the world,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-013", "start": 1617.98, "end": 1620.08, "text": "okay? If that makes sense,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-014", "start": 1620.26, "end": 1622.27, "text": "all right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-015", "start": 1622.35, "end": 1627.19, "text": "So the meritocracy exists to find people with trauma,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-016", "start": 1627.29, "end": 1631.35, "text": "and because it exists, it's traumatizing the world,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-017", "start": 1631.43, "end": 1633.37, "text": "okay? So let me explain how and why.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-018", "start": 1633.49, "end": 1634.34, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-019", "start": 1634.34, "end": 1635.3, "text": "Any questions so far?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-020", "start": 1636.89, "end": 1637.87, "text": "Is this all clear?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-021", "start": 1637.97, "end": 1638.27, "text": "Yeah?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "26fa2d243c760a90c35e1d420d213c017633863bfc330c16270224b385de3ecb", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0030", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1585s", "time_label": "26:25", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0031", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "start": 1641.59, "end": 1663.01, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So let's say if Harvard and Princeton are these college students, then why they're still so famous, because the system is just unreasonable and unequal for the students who have good grades.", "word_count": 32, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-001", "start": 1641.59, "end": 1646.55, "text": "So let's say if Harvard and Princeton are these college students,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-002", "start": 1646.83, "end": 1649.81, "text": "then why they're still so famous,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-003", "start": 1650.01, "end": 1660.25, "text": "because the system is just unreasonable and unequal for the students who", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-004", "start": 1660.25, "end": 1663.01, "text": "have good grades.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "f56e1fca711038ae3ca6884e9fb44fa3e4e8b2a8ac1295e57ae9f6098c956cd7", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0031", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1641s", "time_label": "27:21", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0032", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "start": 1664.89, "end": 1718.34, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay. All right. That's a really good question, okay? So why are Harvard students, Yale students, Princeton students so famous? Okay. The reason why is when you do investment, you don't do all risky investments, okay? You always have diversity in your portfolio. So the majority of students are still students who will be successful no matter what. Why? Because their families are rich, okay? So if you go back to the example, right, those four, you let in the child who comes from three generations of Harvard graduates, okay, and that's the majority of people who get into Harvard, and then you let in the athlete, okay? So the athlete, the legacy, these are the people who are the majority. Those are the safe investments. And then you have like 1 % of positions for people like me, who you don't really know, but there's potential there, so let's take a risk, okay? And quite honestly, it's a crapshoot,", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-001", "start": 1664.89, "end": 1665.75, "text": "Okay. All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-002", "start": 1665.77, "end": 1666.51, "text": "That's a really good question,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-003", "start": 1666.55, "end": 1668.15, "text": "okay? So why are Harvard students,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-004", "start": 1668.55, "end": 1670.45, "text": "Yale students, Princeton students so famous?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-005", "start": 1670.59, "end": 1672.75, "text": "Okay. The reason why is when you do investment,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-006", "start": 1673.07, "end": 1676.44, "text": "you don't do all risky investments,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-007", "start": 1676.58, "end": 1679.58, "text": "okay? You always have diversity in your portfolio.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-008", "start": 1679.98, "end": 1683.74, "text": "So the majority of students are still students who will be successful", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-009", "start": 1683.74, "end": 1684.3, "text": "no matter what.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-010", "start": 1684.42, "end": 1685.78, "text": "Why? Because their families are rich,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-011", "start": 1685.92, "end": 1689.5, "text": "okay? 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So the athlete, the legacy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-017", "start": 1703.18, "end": 1705.02, "text": "these are the people who are the majority.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-018", "start": 1705.34, "end": 1706.52, "text": "Those are the safe investments.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-019", "start": 1706.9, "end": 1711.38, "text": "And then you have like 1 % of positions for people like", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-020", "start": 1711.38, "end": 1712.82, "text": "me, who you don't really know,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-021", "start": 1713.12, "end": 1715.46, "text": "but there's potential there, so let's take a risk,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-022", "start": 1715.58, "end": 1718.34, "text": "okay? And quite honestly, it's a crapshoot,", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "6aab26abaee1c0c9ec8d762a991a7a7c6eebe34479c6f7cb653acfaaa3a5b01b", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0032", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1664s", "time_label": "27:44", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0033", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? And it's possible, on an essay, you just wrote something really interesting, and they laugh, and it's like, okay, let's take a chance on this guy. They have that 1 % of positions available for risk, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, so I'm not the average Yale student, I'm a marginalized Yale student, okay? So this system, the meritocracy, the way it's set up, it creates trauma, okay? So let me explain why. So let's look at university, Yale, then we'll look at high school, okay, then we'll look at parenting, okay? So you think, oh, you get into Yale, you can just coast, you're happy, life is simple, okay? 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And it's possible, on an essay,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-007", "start": 1730.56, "end": 1731.72, "text": "you just wrote something really interesting,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-008", "start": 1731.86, "end": 1732.74, "text": "and they laugh, and it's like,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-009", "start": 1732.8, "end": 1734.54, "text": "okay, let's take a chance on this guy.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-010", "start": 1734.8, "end": 1740.57, "text": "They have that 1 % of positions available for risk,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-011", "start": 1740.73, "end": 1741.91, "text": "okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-012", "start": 1742.25, "end": 1743.95, "text": "Okay, so I'm not the average Yale student,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-013", "start": 1744.17, "end": 1746.07, "text": "I'm a marginalized Yale student,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-014", "start": 1746.27, "end": 1752.29, "text": "okay? So this system, the meritocracy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-015", "start": 1752.59, "end": 1753.31, "text": "the way it's set up,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-016", "start": 1753.37, "end": 1755.71, "text": "it creates trauma, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-017", "start": 1756.1, "end": 1756.88, "text": "So let me explain why.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-018", "start": 1757.2, "end": 1758.34, "text": "So let's look at university,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-019", "start": 1758.54, "end": 1761.22, "text": "Yale, then we'll look at high school,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-020", "start": 1761.5, "end": 1765.13, "text": "okay, then we'll look at parenting,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-021", "start": 1765.37, "end": 1770.84, "text": "okay? 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The fact of the matter is that,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-025", "start": 1777.86, "end": 1778.64, "text": "when you get into Yale,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-026", "start": 1778.98, "end": 1780.8, "text": "Yale is actually the Hunger Games.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "154bfcdd0bb035bb77f8ed9fa1d73ebb2551b273d8ced4a859f14b726b520799", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0033", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1718s", "time_label": "28:38", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0034", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "start": 1781.66, "end": 1836.34, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Have you read the book, The Hunger Games? It is a relentless competition. Because once you're in Yale, you're still competing. Okay? But now you're competing against the most competitive people in the world, okay? So maybe at this school, you can be the best student. Your parents love you, you have lots of good friends, you're head of student government, you feel really good about yourself. You go to Yale, and then you recognize that you're a nobody. Your parents are far away. And you're now in competition with the best students from all around the world, who all want to kill you, because it's a zero -sum game, okay? Own it, strong or survive. And so everywhere you go, it's a competition. In the classroom. It's a seminar style. So you're with 20 other students, and the professor's asking you questions, and you're all competing to impress the professor. Okay? Outside the classroom, you're competing to get into clubs, and something called secret societies.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-001", "start": 1781.66, "end": 1782.42, "text": "Have you read the book,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-002", "start": 1782.46, "end": 1783.28, "text": "The Hunger Games?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-003", "start": 1783.88, "end": 1785.9, "text": "It is a relentless competition.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-004", "start": 1787.06, "end": 1788.36, "text": "Because once you're in Yale,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-005", "start": 1788.58, "end": 1789.48, "text": "you're still competing.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-006", "start": 1789.54, "end": 1792.1, "text": "Okay? But now you're competing against the most competitive people in the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-007", "start": 1792.1, "end": 1792.64, "text": "world, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-008", "start": 1793.14, "end": 1794.26, "text": "So maybe at this school,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-009", "start": 1794.52, "end": 1795.52, "text": "you can be the best student.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-010", "start": 1795.78, "end": 1798.76, "text": "Your parents love you, you have lots of good friends,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-011", "start": 1798.92, "end": 1799.52, "text": "you're head of student government,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-012", "start": 1799.66, "end": 1800.5, "text": "you feel really good about yourself.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-013", "start": 1801.16, "end": 1804.1, "text": "You go to Yale, and then you recognize that you're a nobody.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-014", "start": 1804.48, "end": 1805.58, "text": "Your parents are far away.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-015", "start": 1806.7, "end": 1809.76, "text": "And you're now in competition with the best students from all around", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-016", "start": 1809.76, "end": 1811.62, "text": "the world, who all want to kill you,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-017", "start": 1811.7, "end": 1813.6, "text": "because it's a zero -sum game,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-018", "start": 1813.8, "end": 1815.64, "text": "okay? Own it, strong or survive.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-019", "start": 1816.86, "end": 1818.36, "text": "And so everywhere you go,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-020", "start": 1818.44, "end": 1818.96, "text": "it's a competition.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-021", "start": 1819.08, "end": 1819.78, "text": "In the classroom.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-022", "start": 1820.88, "end": 1822.4, "text": "It's a seminar style.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-023", "start": 1822.62, "end": 1824.24, "text": "So you're with 20 other students,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-024", "start": 1824.38, "end": 1825.9, "text": "and the professor's asking you questions,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-025", "start": 1826.06, "end": 1829.02, "text": "and you're all competing to impress the professor.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-026", "start": 1829.7, "end": 1833.62, "text": "Okay? Outside the classroom, you're competing to get into", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-027", "start": 1833.62, "end": 1836.34, "text": "clubs, and something called secret societies.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "16c859d4bc072c201f7e1dbc9a1b83e20eb02ba6971651bdfed751301f3ef3b1", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0034", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1781s", "time_label": "29:41", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0035", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "start": 1837.52, "end": 1894.51, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? But you're also competing for graduate school, for law school, for medical school, for scholarships like the Rhodes Scholarship, okay? So Yale, it sounds nice, but once you get in there, from the first day, it's an endless pursuit of achievement. It's just competition after competition after competition. Wherever you go, you're being judged by someone, okay? You're being judged by the professor, or your classmates, and everyone's looking to basically kill each other, because it's a winner -take -all system, okay? So this is very traumatic, and it makes you so insecure that you go through life thinking like, life is just like that. Everyone's an enemy. I have to achieve and achieve in order to feel good about myself. I cannot stop working hard, otherwise I will be killed by other people, okay? So people, guys, from Yale have a deep sense of insecurity, even those who come from the wealthiest families.", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-001", "start": 1837.52, "end": 1840.6, "text": "Okay? But you're also competing for graduate school,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-002", "start": 1840.74, "end": 1841.94, "text": "for law school, for medical school,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-003", "start": 1842.12, "end": 1843.64, "text": "for scholarships like the Rhodes Scholarship,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-004", "start": 1843.64, "end": 1845.94, "text": "okay? So Yale, it sounds nice,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-005", "start": 1845.96, "end": 1846.72, "text": "but once you get in there,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-006", "start": 1846.82, "end": 1851.34, "text": "from the first day, it's an endless pursuit of achievement.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-007", "start": 1851.44, "end": 1853.4, "text": "It's just competition after competition after competition.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-008", "start": 1853.7, "end": 1855.64, "text": "Wherever you go, you're being judged by someone,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-009", "start": 1855.78, "end": 1857.62, "text": "okay? You're being judged by the professor,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-010", "start": 1857.82, "end": 1862.24, "text": "or your classmates, and everyone's looking to basically kill each other,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-011", "start": 1862.32, "end": 1865.26, "text": "because it's a winner -take -all system,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-012", "start": 1865.42, "end": 1867.58, "text": "okay? So this is very traumatic,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-013", "start": 1867.78, "end": 1873.52, "text": "and it makes you so insecure that you go through life thinking", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-014", "start": 1873.52, "end": 1875.18, "text": "like, life is just like that.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-015", "start": 1875.34, "end": 1876.12, "text": "Everyone's an enemy.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-016", "start": 1876.42, "end": 1879.14, "text": "I have to achieve and achieve in order to feel good about", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-017", "start": 1879.14, "end": 1882.96, "text": "myself. I cannot stop working hard,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-018", "start": 1883.16, "end": 1886.42, "text": "otherwise I will be killed by other people,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-019", "start": 1886.58, "end": 1890.88, "text": "okay? So people, guys, from Yale have a deep sense of insecurity,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-020", "start": 1891.14, "end": 1893.68, "text": "even those who come from the wealthiest", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-021", "start": 1893.68, "end": 1894.51, "text": "families.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "ab1b705aff16e5b7e2e8fb2f44386aedaeee5aa437b332d08d7a0df77e36b166", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0035", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1837s", "time_label": "30:37", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0036", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "start": 1894.51, "end": 1951.69, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? They're always looking to achieve. And that's what Yale wants. That's what Harvard wants, because these are the people who will be most successful in life, okay? They're not happy with $1 million. They want $1 billion. Once they have the billion dollars, they want $10 billion, okay? It never stops. Okay? So to get into Yale, you have to go for high school. And high school has to train you for Yale. So it's also a competition, also a Hunger Games, okay? To train for high school, your parents have to have a different parenting system, okay? So I'll give you two examples of parenting, okay? The first system, which is the healthy system, you say to your child, I love you unconditionally. No matter what you do, I will support you. I will always be here for you. And if you say that to your child every day, your child will be happy, fulfilled, and secure in life.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-001", "start": 1894.51, "end": 1895.34, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-002", "start": 1895.42, "end": 1896.6, "text": "They're always looking to achieve.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-003", "start": 1896.92, "end": 1897.8, "text": "And that's what Yale wants.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-004", "start": 1897.92, "end": 1901.22, "text": "That's what Harvard wants, because these are the people who will be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-005", "start": 1901.22, "end": 1902.28, "text": "most successful in life, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-006", "start": 1902.52, "end": 1904.04, "text": "They're not happy with $1 million.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-007", "start": 1904.24, "end": 1905.06, "text": "They want $1 billion.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-008", "start": 1905.86, "end": 1906.86, "text": "Once they have the billion dollars,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-009", "start": 1906.94, "end": 1907.98, "text": "they want $10 billion, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-010", "start": 1908, "end": 1908.62, "text": "It never stops.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-011", "start": 1909.31, "end": 1911.79, "text": "Okay? So to get into Yale,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-012", "start": 1911.93, "end": 1912.95, "text": "you have to go for high school.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-013", "start": 1913.49, "end": 1917.49, "text": "And high school has to train you for Yale.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-014", "start": 1917.65, "end": 1919.31, "text": "So it's also a competition,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-015", "start": 1919.57, "end": 1921.69, "text": "also a Hunger Games, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-016", "start": 1924.69, "end": 1926.17, "text": "To train for high school,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-017", "start": 1926.47, "end": 1930.88, "text": "your parents have to have a different parenting system,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-018", "start": 1931.06, "end": 1932.74, "text": "okay? So I'll give you two examples of parenting,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-019", "start": 1932.88, "end": 1935, "text": "okay? The first system, which is the healthy system,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-020", "start": 1935.3, "end": 1936.5, "text": "you say to your child,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-021", "start": 1936.64, "end": 1938.52, "text": "I love you unconditionally.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-022", "start": 1938.72, "end": 1939.78, "text": "No matter what you do,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-023", "start": 1940, "end": 1941.12, "text": "I will support you.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-024", "start": 1941.2, "end": 1942.64, "text": "I will always be here for you.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-025", "start": 1942.64, "end": 1944.74, "text": "And if you say that to your child every day,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-026", "start": 1944.9, "end": 1946.5, "text": "your child will be happy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-027", "start": 1946.66, "end": 1951.17, "text": "fulfilled, and secure", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-028", "start": 1951.17, "end": 1951.69, "text": "in life.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "8884fc2788f73c988698de1cf6242a9e1000dc2dce30dada443f22a53554090f", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0036", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1894s", "time_label": "31:34", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0037", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "start": 1951.87, "end": 2021.05, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "But the person will probably end up as a teacher, okay? Now you can also say to your child, I don't have time for you, but if you win the swimming competition, or you place first on your math test, or if the teacher say nice things about you, then I'll take you for ice cream. Okay? And so it's a system that neglects the child, while at the same time, demands the child, okay? And this is trauma. And again, most kids will be traumatized by the system, but there are some kids who will thrive in the system, and the trauma will encourage them or drive them to achieve and achieve and achieve, so that they get into Yale, so they can compete in the Hunger Games, so they can go on in life. And... Compete some more, okay? And that's how the system is set up. And this is what we call the meritocracy. 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Now you can also say to your child,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-003", "start": 1957.4, "end": 1959.34, "text": "I don't have time for you,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-004", "start": 1959.46, "end": 1963.28, "text": "but if you win the swimming competition,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-005", "start": 1963.52, "end": 1968.18, "text": "or you place first on your math test,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-006", "start": 1968.46, "end": 1971.08, "text": "or if the teacher say nice things about you,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-007", "start": 1971.14, "end": 1972.24, "text": "then I'll take you for ice cream.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-008", "start": 1972.93, "end": 1978.78, "text": "Okay? 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Compete some more, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-019", "start": 2009.22, "end": 2010.74, "text": "And that's how the system is set up.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-020", "start": 2010.8, "end": 2013.68, "text": "And this is what we call the meritocracy.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-021", "start": 2015.14, "end": 2015.54, "text": "And", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-022", "start": 2015.54, "end": 2017.4, "text": "as I'll explain to you later on,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-023", "start": 2017.48, "end": 2019.74, "text": "it is destroying America and the world,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-024", "start": 2019.88, "end": 2021.05, "text": "all right?", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "be3766c68c3a48879d9e7de5e9aececbe5a94555b3006df7a7cfac6f42f614d4", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0037", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=1951s", "time_label": "32:31", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0038", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "start": 2021.55, "end": 2041.25, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So that's how the system is set up. And guess what, guys? Is it different in China? Not really, okay? All right? So the concept of meritocracy has conquered the world. It started in America. It actually started at Harvard, but now it's conquered the entire world. And that's why the world is so messed up.", "word_count": 56, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-001", "start": 2021.55, "end": 2022.87, "text": "So that's how the system is set up.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-002", "start": 2024.16, "end": 2025.32, "text": "And guess what, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-003", "start": 2025.64, "end": 2026.62, "text": "Is it different in China?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-004", "start": 2028.81, "end": 2029.71, "text": "Not really, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-005", "start": 2030.37, "end": 2030.93, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-006", "start": 2030.99, "end": 2033.35, "text": "So the concept of meritocracy has conquered the world.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-007", "start": 2033.49, "end": 2034.37, "text": "It started in America.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-008", "start": 2034.53, "end": 2035.55, "text": "It actually started at Harvard,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-009", "start": 2035.71, "end": 2038.31, "text": "but now it's conquered the entire world.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-010", "start": 2038.31, "end": 2041.25, "text": "And that's why the world is so messed up.", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "b40282f27b108296a9f2fe5c31df5f28830a87df00e230b8eb21b14818f7c94b", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0038", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2021s", "time_label": "33:41", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0039", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "start": 2042.83, "end": 2050.33, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So as you say, Yale gives you so many negative emotions, so will you still go there if you got a second chance?", "word_count": 23, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-001", "start": 2042.83, "end": 2047.21, "text": "So as you say, Yale gives you so many negative emotions,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-002", "start": 2047.41, "end": 2050.33, "text": "so will you still go there if you got a second chance?", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "6a0804e2384c579847ef585d0767418983923fb3377cf4677fc7376546512e22", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0039", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2042s", "time_label": "34:02", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0040", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "start": 2051.46, "end": 2101.56, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay. So that's a really good question. Would I go there if I had a second chance? And the answer is probably, okay? And the reason why is the system is set up that you don't really have a choice, right? If you want to move ahead in the world, and you're poor, what are your options, right? So before, in America, there were opportunities for poor people to succeed. So for example, George Washington, the first president of the United States, he never went to college. Abraham Lincoln didn't go to the Ivy League, and these are considered the two greatest presidents in American history. Unfortunately, today, if you look at the presidents, if you look at the top people, they all went to the elite schools, okay? So the system is set up so that if you want to succeed, you have to go through the Ivy League. Okay? But I do not plan to send my kids to the Ivy League.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-001", "start": 2051.46, "end": 2053.44, "text": "Okay. So that's a really good question.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-002", "start": 2054.92, "end": 2056.76, "text": "Would I go there if I had a second chance?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-003", "start": 2057.38, "end": 2058.9, "text": "And the answer is probably,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-004", "start": 2059.14, "end": 2062.76, "text": "okay? And the reason why is the system is set up that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-005", "start": 2062.76, "end": 2063.72, "text": "you don't really have a choice,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-006", "start": 2063.86, "end": 2065.5, "text": "right? If you want to move ahead in the world,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-007", "start": 2065.56, "end": 2068.18, "text": "and you're poor, what are your options,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-008", "start": 2068.34, "end": 2072.2, "text": "right? So before, in America,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-009", "start": 2072.44, "end": 2076.84, "text": "there were opportunities for poor people to succeed.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-010", "start": 2077.12, "end": 2078.86, "text": "So for example, George Washington,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-011", "start": 2079.04, "end": 2079.92, "text": "the first president of the United States,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-012", "start": 2080.08, "end": 2080.88, "text": "he never went to college.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-013", "start": 2081.24, "end": 2083.06, "text": "Abraham Lincoln didn't go to the Ivy League,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-014", "start": 2083.2, "end": 2086.78, "text": "and these are considered the two greatest presidents in American history.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-015", "start": 2087.44, "end": 2089.38, "text": "Unfortunately, today, if you look at the presidents,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-016", "start": 2089.58, "end": 2090.48, "text": "if you look at the top people,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-017", "start": 2090.72, "end": 2092.6, "text": "they all went to the elite schools,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-018", "start": 2092.94, "end": 2095.56, "text": "okay? So the system is set up so that if you want", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-019", "start": 2095.56, "end": 2097.6, "text": "to succeed, you have to go through the Ivy League.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-020", "start": 2098.2, "end": 2100.4, "text": "Okay? But I do not plan to send my kids", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-021", "start": 2100.4, "end": 2101.56, "text": "to the Ivy League.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "4bfbf3de9af32a6aeb085eefc44aaeb88c8fd770dc4eb0728d8d54ad8ddbe40c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0040", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2051s", "time_label": "34:11", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0041", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "start": 2101.78, "end": 2166.04, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? The last thing I would do is have them in such a competitive, traumatic environment as the Ivy League. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. Any more questions? So thank you for your question. Any more questions before I move on? Okay. So let's do a PPT, and I'll explain to you how America is destroying the world. Okay. Sorry about this. Okay. So I actually need to go back to the beginning. Okay. Death by meritocracy. All right. So let's go. Okay. So from this graph, what you can see is this. In the year 1875, the best universities in the world were actually not in America. They were in Germany. Germany was producing the most Nobel Prize winners. Second was France, followed by the UK. Okay? And America was non -existent. But because of its investments in research universities, it started to move up and up. And then it won World War II.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-001", "start": 2101.78, "end": 2105.62, "text": "Okay? The last thing I would do is have them in such", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-002", "start": 2105.62, "end": 2108.04, "text": "a competitive, traumatic environment as the Ivy League.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-003", "start": 2108.4, "end": 2109.88, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-004", "start": 2110.14, "end": 2110.6, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-005", "start": 2111, "end": 2111.46, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-006", "start": 2111.62, "end": 2112.34, "text": "Any more questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-007", "start": 2112.52, "end": 2113.58, "text": "So thank you for your question.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-008", "start": 2113.7, "end": 2114.86, "text": "Any more questions before I move on?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-009", "start": 2116.01, "end": 2118.05, "text": "Okay. So let's do a PPT,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-010", "start": 2118.15, "end": 2125.46, "text": "and I'll explain to you how America is destroying the world.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-011", "start": 2125.6, "end": 2126.98, "text": "Okay. Sorry about this.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-012", "start": 2127.1, "end": 2131.09, "text": "Okay. So I actually need to go back to the beginning.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-013", "start": 2132.19, "end": 2133.59, "text": "Okay. Death by meritocracy.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-014", "start": 2134.01, "end": 2134.57, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-015", "start": 2134.93, "end": 2137.06, "text": "So let's go.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-016", "start": 2137.18, "end": 2140.86, "text": "Okay. So from this graph,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-017", "start": 2141.06, "end": 2141.96, "text": "what you can see is this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-018", "start": 2142.16, "end": 2146.68, "text": "In the year 1875, the best universities in the world were actually", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-019", "start": 2146.68, "end": 2147.38, "text": "not in America.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-020", "start": 2147.54, "end": 2148.4, "text": "They were in Germany.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-021", "start": 2148.7, "end": 2151.24, "text": "Germany was producing the most Nobel Prize winners.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-022", "start": 2151.88, "end": 2156.1, "text": "Second was France, followed by the UK.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-023", "start": 2156.28, "end": 2158.5, "text": "Okay? And America was non -existent.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-024", "start": 2158.88, "end": 2162.38, "text": "But because of its investments in research universities,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-025", "start": 2162.62, "end": 2164.02, "text": "it started to move up and up.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-026", "start": 2164.16, "end": 2164.76, "text": "And then it won", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-027", "start": 2164.76, "end": 2166.04, "text": "World War II.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "1b473cf325813d2384c626a7ddaa5368d9c434bced0b8bc1d116cd757f46351d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0041", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2101s", "time_label": "35:01", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0042", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get better and better, they're lending more students. Okay? And as you can see, more and more American students are now going to college. Before in 1940, it was only about 5 % of all males who went to university. Today it's almost, it's 35 % basically. Okay? Because that's a huge step. And you would think that with the increase in college graduates, America would become a much more equal society. Right? Well, the opposite has happened. Okay? America has become a much more unequal society. There's something called the Gini coefficient, which measures inequality. And as you can see, these past 20 years, it's gone way up. It's among the highest in the world. I mean, America right now", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-001", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2169.08, "text": "So now it can import all these German scientists.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-002", "start": 2169.32, "end": 2171.18, "text": "And that's why it dominates today.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-003", "start": 2171.44, "end": 2174.46, "text": "So the best universities in the world are now America,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-004", "start": 2174.74, "end": 2176.54, "text": "or in America, Harvard, Yale,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-005", "start": 2176.64, "end": 2177.1, "text": "and Princeton.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-006", "start": 2177.85, "end": 2182.96, "text": "Okay? Now, as universities get better and better,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-007", "start": 2183.12, "end": 2184.04, "text": "they're lending more students.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-008", "start": 2184.24, "end": 2186.08, "text": "Okay? And as you can see,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-009", "start": 2186.38, "end": 2190.64, "text": "more and more American students are now going to college.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-010", "start": 2190.86, "end": 2197.16, "text": "Before in 1940, it was only about 5 % of all males", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-011", "start": 2197.16, "end": 2199.3, "text": "who went to university.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-012", "start": 2200.3, "end": 2204.58, "text": "Today it's almost, it's 35 % basically.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-013", "start": 2204.74, "end": 2205.76, "text": "Okay? Because that's a huge step.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-014", "start": 2206.02, "end": 2211.94, "text": "And you would think that with the increase in college graduates,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-015", "start": 2212.14, "end": 2214.48, "text": "America would become a much more equal society.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-016", "start": 2214.48, "end": 2217.27, "text": "Right? Well, the opposite has happened.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-017", "start": 2217.51, "end": 2221.17, "text": "Okay? America has become a much more unequal society.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-018", "start": 2222.22, "end": 2223.68, "text": "There's something called the Gini coefficient,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-019", "start": 2224, "end": 2225.12, "text": "which measures inequality.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-020", "start": 2225.66, "end": 2226.6, "text": "And as you can see,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-021", "start": 2226.96, "end": 2231.28, "text": "these past 20 years, it's gone way up.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-022", "start": 2231.44, "end": 2233.12, "text": "It's among the highest in the world.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-023", "start": 2233.32, "end": 2234.22, "text": "I mean, America right now", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "139534904c84ec091c93e60ccac822007333b872a62ef3df29cdd063aa59a85c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0042", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2166s", "time_label": "36:06", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0043", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "start": 2234.22, "end": 2305.68, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "is one of the most unequal societies in the world, even though over a third of its young people go and graduate from college. Okay? This is a graph of social mobility. Okay? So the graph, the top, this number shows you if the number of people who are doing better than their parents. As you can see, in the year 1940, most people are doing better than their parents. But over time, it's no one's doing better than their parents. Okay? So your generation, you will not do better than your parents, most of you. Okay? Income inequality has gone way up in the United States. The top 1 % control most of the wealth in the United States, as you can see from this map. Okay? So even though America has become wealthier, it's actually going to just the 1%. At the same time, universities are becoming much more expensive. Okay? So this is leading to student debt.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-001", "start": 2234.22, "end": 2236.42, "text": "is one of the most unequal societies in the world,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-002", "start": 2236.58, "end": 2242.86, "text": "even though over a third of its young people go and graduate", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-003", "start": 2242.86, "end": 2244, "text": "from college.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-004", "start": 2244.04, "end": 2249.98, "text": "Okay? This is a graph of social mobility.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-005", "start": 2250.34, "end": 2253.78, "text": "Okay? So the graph, the top,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-006", "start": 2253.78, "end": 2259.42, "text": "this number shows you if the number of people who are doing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-007", "start": 2259.42, "end": 2260.12, "text": "better than their parents.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-008", "start": 2260.3, "end": 2261.86, "text": "As you can see, in the year 1940,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-009", "start": 2262.22, "end": 2264.4, "text": "most people are doing better than their parents.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-010", "start": 2264.56, "end": 2269.06, "text": "But over time, it's no one's doing better than their parents.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-011", "start": 2269.18, "end": 2274.54, "text": "Okay? So your generation, you will not do better than your parents,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-012", "start": 2274.66, "end": 2275.24, "text": "most of you.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-013", "start": 2275.24, "end": 2282.49, "text": "Okay? Income inequality has gone way up in the United States.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-014", "start": 2282.59, "end": 2286.57, "text": "The top 1 % control most of the wealth in the United", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-015", "start": 2286.57, "end": 2290.23, "text": "States, as you can see from this map.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-016", "start": 2290.47, "end": 2293.86, "text": "Okay? So even though America has become wealthier,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-017", "start": 2294.04, "end": 2296.46, "text": "it's actually going to just the 1%.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-018", "start": 2298.72, "end": 2302.08, "text": "At the same time, universities are becoming much more expensive.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-019", "start": 2302.54, "end": 2305.68, "text": "Okay? So this is leading to student debt.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "915cdfdb4b9598ff6f9b77037949cfaf1769952904cc5dd003d837017f431934", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0043", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2234s", "time_label": "37:14", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0044", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt cannot be gotten rid of. Okay? When you die, it passes on to your children. Okay? So this is a terrible situation for young people in America. This is actually a more stark graph. Where tuition has gone way up, but wages have stayed pretty stagnant. Okay? And it's leading to depression among teenagers. Okay? And also, the thing about this graph is the middle class and wealthy students are much more likely to be depressed and identify as depressed than poor students. All right? So this is leading to a crisis in America. So what has happened? Well, you have two individuals who create the meritocracy. The first is named James B. Conant. And he was president of Harvard for a couple of decades.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-001", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2308.72, "text": "Okay? And you can see how student debt,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-002", "start": 2308.92, "end": 2310.76, "text": "student loans, has gone way up.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-003", "start": 2311.28, "end": 2313.92, "text": "So in America, student loans,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-004", "start": 2313.98, "end": 2316.96, "text": "student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-005", "start": 2317.02, "end": 2318.36, "text": "ever get rid of.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-006", "start": 2318.48, "end": 2319.32, "text": "You can't declare bankruptcy.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-007", "start": 2319.86, "end": 2323, "text": "This debt cannot be gotten rid of.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-008", "start": 2323.08, "end": 2325.48, "text": "Okay? When you die, it passes on to your children.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-009", "start": 2325.66, "end": 2333.22, "text": "Okay? So this is a terrible situation for young people in America.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-010", "start": 2333.96, "end": 2335.44, "text": "This is actually a more stark graph.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-011", "start": 2335.44, "end": 2338, "text": "Where tuition has gone way up,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-012", "start": 2338.12, "end": 2340.82, "text": "but wages have stayed pretty stagnant.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-013", "start": 2341.86, "end": 2349.49, "text": "Okay? And it's leading to depression among teenagers.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-014", "start": 2350.15, "end": 2357.36, "text": "Okay? And also, the thing about this graph is the middle class", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-015", "start": 2357.36, "end": 2361.18, "text": "and wealthy students are much more likely to be depressed and identify", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-016", "start": 2361.18, "end": 2362.98, "text": "as depressed than poor students.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-017", "start": 2363.7, "end": 2364.34, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-018", "start": 2364.38, "end": 2367.14, "text": "So this is leading to a crisis in America.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-019", "start": 2367.14, "end": 2370.4, "text": "So what has happened?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-020", "start": 2370.64, "end": 2373.1, "text": "Well, you have two individuals who create the meritocracy.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-021", "start": 2373.36, "end": 2375.3, "text": "The first is named James B.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-022", "start": 2375.34, "end": 2376.88, "text": "Conant. And he was president of", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-023", "start": 2376.88, "end": 2378.54, "text": "Harvard for a couple of decades.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "097826b2d53edf600ed9d42b99be1b4672853728b870001e15aec297b20b3e41", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0044", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2307s", "time_label": "38:27", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0045", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best university in the world, as well as an institution of power in America. Meaning that it would now decide who wins and who loses in America. The man who would help him is named Harry Chauncey. He was dean of Harvard, who was in charge of the scholarship program. Then, he got a new job at a new organization called ETS. You know ETS because it's Education Testing Services. They're the ones responsible for the SAT, the TOEFL, the AP, the GRE. Okay? So, these two together create the modern meritocracy. And as you can imagine, because they're both from Harvard, the entire system is set up to benefit Harvard. Okay? And guess what, guys? It worked.", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-001", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2382.82, "text": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-002", "start": 2382.82, "end": 2383.96, "text": "to identify scholarship students.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-003", "start": 2384.18, "end": 2388.02, "text": "And he made Harvard into the best research university in America.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-004", "start": 2388.5, "end": 2392.7, "text": "Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best university", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-005", "start": 2392.7, "end": 2396.88, "text": "in the world, as well as an institution of power in America.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-006", "start": 2396.88, "end": 2399.68, "text": "Meaning that it would now decide who wins and who loses in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-007", "start": 2399.68, "end": 2403.28, "text": "America. The man who would help him is named Harry Chauncey.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-008", "start": 2403.38, "end": 2404.56, "text": "He was dean of Harvard,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-009", "start": 2404.74, "end": 2406.28, "text": "who was in charge of the scholarship program.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-010", "start": 2407.38, "end": 2412.46, "text": "Then, he got a new job at a new organization called ETS.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-011", "start": 2412.92, "end": 2415.5, "text": "You know ETS because it's Education Testing Services.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-012", "start": 2415.94, "end": 2417.82, "text": "They're the ones responsible for the SAT,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-013", "start": 2418.16, "end": 2420.78, "text": "the TOEFL, the AP, the GRE.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-014", "start": 2420.94, "end": 2425.84, "text": "Okay? So, these two together create the modern meritocracy.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-015", "start": 2425.84, "end": 2427.16, "text": "And as you can imagine,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-016", "start": 2427.28, "end": 2428.54, "text": "because they're both from Harvard,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-017", "start": 2428.88, "end": 2431.84, "text": "the entire system is set up to benefit Harvard.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-018", "start": 2432.44, "end": 2433.98, "text": "Okay? And guess what, guys?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-019", "start": 2434.88, "end": 2435.36, "text": "It", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-020", "start": 2435.36, "end": 2435.84, "text": "worked.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "91d52ff2be3187156f7b8f6fc7a8ec0efefded1d853038be7e055ed7adabe219", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0045", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2378s", "time_label": "39:38", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0046", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "start": 2435.84, "end": 2507.54, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? So, in the year 1940, 90 % of applicants to Harvard got accepted. Now, it's gone way down to 5%. Okay? Stanford is even lower. Okay? So, now it's so hard to get into Harvard. At the same time, look at the cash of Harvard. Okay? This is called the endowment. The amount of money they have at Harvard is just ridiculous. They have more money than most countries in the world. Right now, their endowment is about $40 billion. Okay? And it's just the past 30, 40 years. The success of the Harvard alumni is just incredible. The most billionaires in America, Harvard graduates more billionaires than any other place. Okay? 127 billionaires in 2024. Second is Stanford. All right? No one else comes close. But not only that, but it's also anyone with over $100 million. Most of them graduate from Harvard. 7 % of all, sorry, 7 % of all people in America who have over $100 million net worth graduate from Harvard.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-001", "start": 2435.84, "end": 2436.32, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-002", "start": 2436.54, "end": 2438.84, "text": "So, in the year 1940,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-003", "start": 2439.22, "end": 2442.54, "text": "90 % of applicants to Harvard got accepted.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-004", "start": 2442.82, "end": 2446.84, "text": "Now, it's gone way down to 5%.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-005", "start": 2448.7, "end": 2450.84, "text": "Okay? Stanford is even lower.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-006", "start": 2451.04, "end": 2454.58, "text": "Okay? So, now it's so hard to get into Harvard.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-007", "start": 2454.8, "end": 2457.96, "text": "At the same time, look at the cash of Harvard.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-008", "start": 2458.02, "end": 2458.98, "text": "Okay? This is called the endowment.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-009", "start": 2459.38, "end": 2462.94, "text": "The amount of money they have at Harvard is just ridiculous.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-010", "start": 2463.38, "end": 2465.52, "text": "They have more money than most countries in the world.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-011", "start": 2465.68, "end": 2467.42, "text": "Right now, their endowment is about $40 billion.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-012", "start": 2469.08, "end": 2471, "text": "Okay? And it's just the past 30,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-013", "start": 2471.06, "end": 2471.46, "text": "40 years.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-014", "start": 2473.08, "end": 2476.64, "text": "The success of the Harvard alumni is just incredible.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-015", "start": 2476.92, "end": 2478.72, "text": "The most billionaires in America,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-016", "start": 2479.11, "end": 2481.75, "text": "Harvard graduates more billionaires than any other place.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-017", "start": 2481.85, "end": 2485.89, "text": "Okay? 127 billionaires in 2024.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-018", "start": 2486.39, "end": 2487.51, "text": "Second is Stanford.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-019", "start": 2488.24, "end": 2488.88, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-020", "start": 2488.88, "end": 2490.02, "text": "No one else comes close.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-021", "start": 2491.21, "end": 2496.18, "text": "But not only that, but it's also anyone with over $100 million.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-022", "start": 2496.66, "end": 2498.12, "text": "Most of them graduate from Harvard.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-023", "start": 2498.6, "end": 2500.18, "text": "7 % of all, sorry,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-024", "start": 2500.3, "end": 2505.06, "text": "7 % of all people in America who have", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-025", "start": 2505.06, "end": 2507.54, "text": "over $100 million net worth graduate from Harvard.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "93c510b3975fcc3aafd12ac963e401e9bac969ceaa9c2fe9e602fa476f89f398", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0046", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2435s", "time_label": "40:35", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0047", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "start": 2507.78, "end": 2575.645, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? And you have MIT, Stanford, Pennsylvania, Columbia, Yale, Cornell, Princeton. Guess what, guys? Ivy League plus MIT. Okay? Okay. $30 million. Still, Harvard is number one. Okay? All right? So their graduates are the most successful in America. Okay? But it's not just rich people. It's everyone in the American elite. Okay? Most of them are graduates of the elite universities. Okay? So this is an article in Nature. And they looked at all the elite in America. And what they discovered is they all, most of them went to certain schools, the elite universities. Um. And this is what's causing a lot of global conflict in America today. All right? So let's just look at what they found. The red is Harvard graduates. Okay? The green are Harvard plus Ivy League. And as you can see, Harvard is everywhere. Even among generals, admirals, there's Harvard people. Okay?", "word_count": 149, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-001", "start": 2507.78, "end": 2508.86, "text": "Okay? And you have MIT,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-002", "start": 2509.02, "end": 2511.8, "text": "Stanford, Pennsylvania, Columbia, Yale, Cornell,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-003", "start": 2511.96, "end": 2512.94, "text": "Princeton. Guess what, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-004", "start": 2513.12, "end": 2514, "text": "Ivy League plus MIT.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-005", "start": 2515.07, "end": 2517.44, "text": "Okay? Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-006", "start": 2518.08, "end": 2518.74, "text": "$30 million.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-007", "start": 2519.02, "end": 2520.6, "text": "Still, Harvard is number one.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-008", "start": 2520.6, "end": 2522.43, "text": "Okay? All right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-009", "start": 2522.49, "end": 2524.85, "text": "So their graduates are the most successful in America.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-010", "start": 2528.04, "end": 2530.1, "text": "Okay? But it's not just rich people.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-011", "start": 2530.2, "end": 2532.8, "text": "It's everyone in the American elite.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-012", "start": 2534.15, "end": 2536.97, "text": "Okay? Most of them are graduates of the elite universities.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-013", "start": 2537.37, "end": 2539.43, "text": "Okay? So this is an article in Nature.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-014", "start": 2539.75, "end": 2542.67, "text": "And they looked at all the elite in America.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-015", "start": 2543.01, "end": 2545.73, "text": "And what they discovered is they all,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-016", "start": 2545.93, "end": 2549.15, "text": "most of them went to certain schools,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-017", "start": 2549.25, "end": 2550.15, "text": "the elite universities.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-018", "start": 2550.77, "end": 2554.95, "text": "Um. And this is what's causing a lot of global conflict in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-019", "start": 2554.95, "end": 2555.85, "text": "America today.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-020", "start": 2556.13, "end": 2556.65, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-021", "start": 2556.67, "end": 2558.19, "text": "So let's just look at what they found.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-022", "start": 2558.45, "end": 2560.85, "text": "The red is Harvard graduates.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-023", "start": 2561.44, "end": 2565.72, "text": "Okay? The green are Harvard plus Ivy League.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-024", "start": 2566.11, "end": 2567.33, "text": "And as you can see,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-025", "start": 2567.59, "end": 2569.15, "text": "Harvard is everywhere.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-026", "start": 2569.39, "end": 2574.49, "text": "Even among generals, admirals, there's Harvard people.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-027", "start": 2575.03, "end": 2575.645, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "071259f36798a422e34169da55356b374ebddb2252788c5ff180932a0daa69a7", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0047", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2507s", "time_label": "41:47", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0048", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2647.96, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors. But they're everywhere. Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires, New York Times bestselling authors, Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges, senators. Okay? They're everywhere. And that's the power of Harvard. This is a, this is a portion of, of Harvard graduates compared with the general population. This is the portion of Harvard graduates compared with the elite. Okay? You see, you see the contrast. So Harvard and Ivy League dominate America today. Okay? Now what's amazing is Harvard people don't know if they dominate Harvard. They don't know they're elite. So they did a survey. And so they asked people in these elite organizations, how many people do you think in this organization went to Harvard and other elite universities? So the red is the actual number. The blue is the estimate. So Harvard and Ivy League don't even know they dominate America. Okay? And you ask them like, no, it's conspiracy theory. No, you're spreading conspiracy theories.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-001", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2579.93, "text": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-002", "start": 2579.93, "end": 2581.81, "text": "But they're everywhere.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-003", "start": 2582.03, "end": 2584.47, "text": "Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-004", "start": 2584.79, "end": 2586.23, "text": "New York Times bestselling authors,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-005", "start": 2588.25, "end": 2590.27, "text": "Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-006", "start": 2590.41, "end": 2590.85, "text": "senators. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-007", "start": 2590.95, "end": 2591.43, "text": "They're everywhere.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-008", "start": 2592.21, "end": 2593.47, "text": "And that's the power of Harvard.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-009", "start": 2595.28, "end": 2597.02, "text": "This is a, this is a portion of,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-010", "start": 2597.04, "end": 2599.26, "text": "of Harvard graduates compared with the general population.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-011", "start": 2599.72, "end": 2603.46, "text": "This is the portion of Harvard graduates compared with the elite.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-012", "start": 2604.06, "end": 2607.01, "text": "Okay? You see, you see the contrast.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-013", "start": 2608.51, "end": 2612.27, "text": "So Harvard and Ivy League dominate America today.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-014", "start": 2613.02, "end": 2619.88, "text": "Okay? Now what's amazing is Harvard people don't know if they dominate", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-015", "start": 2619.88, "end": 2621.38, "text": "Harvard. They don't know they're elite.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-016", "start": 2621.56, "end": 2622.88, "text": "So they did a survey.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-017", "start": 2623.04, "end": 2626.24, "text": "And so they asked people in these elite organizations,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-018", "start": 2626.68, "end": 2630.68, "text": "how many people do you think in this organization went to Harvard", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-019", "start": 2630.68, "end": 2631.62, "text": "and other elite universities?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-020", "start": 2632.02, "end": 2634.2, "text": "So the red is the actual number.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-021", "start": 2634.32, "end": 2635.54, "text": "The blue is the estimate.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-022", "start": 2636.62, "end": 2640.44, "text": "So Harvard and Ivy League don't even know they dominate America.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-023", "start": 2641.38, "end": 2642.94, "text": "Okay? And you ask them like,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-024", "start": 2643.04, "end": 2645.28, "text": "no, it's conspiracy theory.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-025", "start": 2645.9, "end": 2647.6, "text": "No, you're spreading conspiracy", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-026", "start": 2647.6, "end": 2647.96, "text": "theories.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "882c0f49ea62a81af0025ccaa67ad7e2c8809f49c23e7bc30cab1d388107fec7", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0048", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2575s", "time_label": "42:55", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0049", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2714.62, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "We're just average people. There's no way Harvard controls America. All right? Now, as I mentioned at Harvard, just going to Harvard is not enough. You have to join the elite social clubs, the social secret societies. So Harvard is a place like the, at Harvard everyone wants to join the porcelain club. Okay? At Princeton is the Ivy Club. These are secret societies. Oh, they're not really secret, but they're senior, they're senior societies. Okay? The clubs that everyone wants to join. At Yale, it's Skull and Bones. Okay? Skull and Bones is the most famous college secret society. They're not that secret because they like to brag that they're Skull and Bones. They're so powerful that they produce a lot of presidents, a lot of rich people. Okay? 2004, okay? George W. Bush versus John Kerry. Guess what, guys? John Kerry is the Democratic nominee. George Bush is the Republican nominee, right? They're both Skull and Bones.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-001", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2649.4, "text": "We're just average people.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-002", "start": 2649.72, "end": 2651.38, "text": "There's no way Harvard controls America.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-003", "start": 2653.46, "end": 2654.1, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-004", "start": 2655.04, "end": 2657.38, "text": "Now, as I mentioned at Harvard,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-005", "start": 2657.7, "end": 2658.96, "text": "just going to Harvard is not enough.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-006", "start": 2659.2, "end": 2661.86, "text": "You have to join the elite social clubs,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-007", "start": 2661.96, "end": 2662.7, "text": "the social secret societies.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-008", "start": 2663, "end": 2664.96, "text": "So Harvard is a place like the,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-009", "start": 2665.06, "end": 2667.64, "text": "at Harvard everyone wants to join the porcelain club.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-010", "start": 2667.84, "end": 2673.28, "text": "Okay? At Princeton is the Ivy Club.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-011", "start": 2673.46, "end": 2674.44, "text": "These are secret societies.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-012", "start": 2674.7, "end": 2675.5, "text": "Oh, they're not really secret,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-013", "start": 2675.7, "end": 2677.66, "text": "but they're senior, they're senior societies.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-014", "start": 2677.66, "end": 2679.58, "text": "Okay? The clubs that everyone wants to join.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-015", "start": 2679.68, "end": 2681.2, "text": "At Yale, it's Skull and Bones.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-016", "start": 2681.56, "end": 2685.32, "text": "Okay? Skull and Bones is the most famous college secret society.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-017", "start": 2685.68, "end": 2691.22, "text": "They're not that secret because they like to brag that they're Skull", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-018", "start": 2691.22, "end": 2691.56, "text": "and Bones.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-019", "start": 2691.72, "end": 2696.18, "text": "They're so powerful that they produce a lot of presidents,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-020", "start": 2696.38, "end": 2697.44, "text": "a lot of rich people.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-021", "start": 2697.76, "end": 2701.74, "text": "Okay? 2004, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-022", "start": 2703.74, "end": 2704.46, "text": "George W.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-023", "start": 2704.46, "end": 2705.84, "text": "Bush versus John Kerry.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-024", "start": 2706.42, "end": 2707.34, "text": "Guess what, guys?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-025", "start": 2707.34, "end": 2710.38, "text": "John Kerry is the Democratic nominee.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-026", "start": 2710.68, "end": 2712.54, "text": "George Bush is the Republican nominee,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-027", "start": 2712.7, "end": 2714.62, "text": "right? They're both Skull and Bones.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "1b4a29a2bb45afaa1a717cebff9e98044a13f32abd1af06b3ecc4009b5ff38b2", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0049", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2647s", "time_label": "44:07", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0050", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "start": 2715.32, "end": 2788.195, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "They're both Yale Skull and Bones. Okay? So it's a rigged game. Barack Obama, okay? Barack Obama, Columbia, went to Harvard Law School, but he promised hope and change. He told people in 2008 that the game is rigged against them, that he will be their champion, that he would make a difference. That he would make America more fair. Okay? And he won. Why? Because... So this is his book, Dreams of My Father. It was a New York Times bestseller. It basically launched his political career. He won because in 2008, the U.S. economy collapsed. Why? Because the U.S. banks, the U.S. political system was controlled by Ivy League graduates, by just people who are friends with each other. And so they cheated. They became corrupt. Okay? They basically destroyed the American economy. And people protested against all this. And Barack Obama promised that he would come in and do something about it. Okay?", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-001", "start": 2715.32, "end": 2717.48, "text": "They're both Yale Skull and Bones.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-002", "start": 2718.42, "end": 2720.36, "text": "Okay? So it's a rigged game.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-003", "start": 2724.19, "end": 2725.99, "text": "Barack Obama, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-004", "start": 2726.17, "end": 2729.45, "text": "Barack Obama, Columbia, went to Harvard Law School,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-005", "start": 2729.67, "end": 2731.53, "text": "but he promised hope and change.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-006", "start": 2731.91, "end": 2736.21, "text": "He told people in 2008 that the game is rigged against them,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-007", "start": 2736.36, "end": 2738.08, "text": "that he will be their champion,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-008", "start": 2739.64, "end": 2742.28, "text": "that he would make a difference.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-009", "start": 2742.3, "end": 2743.74, "text": "That he would make America more fair.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-010", "start": 2744.43, "end": 2746.37, "text": "Okay? And he won.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-011", "start": 2746.53, "end": 2747.95, "text": "Why? Because...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-012", "start": 2747.95, "end": 2750.31, "text": "So this is his book,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-013", "start": 2750.39, "end": 2751.11, "text": "Dreams of My Father.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-014", "start": 2751.89, "end": 2753.45, "text": "It was a New York Times bestseller.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-015", "start": 2753.59, "end": 2755.05, "text": "It basically launched his political career.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-016", "start": 2757.07, "end": 2758.85, "text": "He won because in 2008,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-017", "start": 2759.23, "end": 2759.93, "text": "the U.S.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-018", "start": 2759.95, "end": 2760.43, "text": "economy collapsed.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-019", "start": 2760.89, "end": 2763.71, "text": "Why? Because the U.S.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-020", "start": 2763.73, "end": 2764.53, "text": "banks, the U.S.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-021", "start": 2764.53, "end": 2767.95, "text": "political system was controlled by Ivy League graduates,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-022", "start": 2768.17, "end": 2771.19, "text": "by just people who are friends with each other.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-023", "start": 2771.19, "end": 2772.23, "text": "And so they cheated.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-024", "start": 2772.35, "end": 2773.19, "text": "They became corrupt.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-025", "start": 2773.89, "end": 2777.29, "text": "Okay? They basically destroyed the American economy.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-026", "start": 2778.81, "end": 2782.97, "text": "And people protested against all this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-027", "start": 2783.37, "end": 2786.47, "text": "And Barack Obama promised that he would come in and do something", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-028", "start": 2786.47, "end": 2787.01, "text": "about it.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-029", "start": 2787.19, "end": 2788.195, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "676682d5b8d6e81545e392f3432a8412dfce8aba40ec6de51f710a467ea9dbbd", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0050", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2715s", "time_label": "45:15", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0051", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And he was treasury secretary under Bill Clinton. And he was the guy who created the mess in the first place. And then Tim Geithner, who was a Dartmouth graduate. And he was a treasury secretary. Okay? So these are friends of Wall Street who came in to save Wall Street. So a lot of critics say, you know, it's Wall Street who created this mess, who destroyed the American economy. They should be punished. Or at least they should feel some pain. If you just let them go and help them out and save them, then you create a problem called moral hazard. The idea of moral hazard is if you don't have any consequences for your mistake, you will do it again.", "word_count": 163, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-001", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2790.5, "text": "Well, he did do something about it.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-002", "start": 2790.78, "end": 2791.38, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-003", "start": 2791.44, "end": 2796.2, "text": "So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-004", "start": 2796.38, "end": 2797.62, "text": "These are the two most famous.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-005", "start": 2797.74, "end": 2801.66, "text": "Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-006", "start": 2801.66, "end": 2802.42, "text": "of Harvard.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-007", "start": 2802.44, "end": 2805.5, "text": "And he was treasury secretary under Bill Clinton.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-008", "start": 2805.64, "end": 2807.34, "text": "And he was the guy who created the mess in the first", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-009", "start": 2807.34, "end": 2809.3, "text": "place. And then Tim Geithner,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-010", "start": 2809.44, "end": 2810.34, "text": "who was a Dartmouth graduate.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-011", "start": 2810.88, "end": 2812.08, "text": "And he was a treasury secretary.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-012", "start": 2812.3, "end": 2815.94, "text": "Okay? So these are friends of Wall Street who came in to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-013", "start": 2815.94, "end": 2816.62, "text": "save Wall Street.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-014", "start": 2817.63, "end": 2819.11, "text": "So a lot of critics say,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-015", "start": 2819.29, "end": 2821.19, "text": "you know, it's Wall Street who created this mess,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-016", "start": 2821.29, "end": 2822.23, "text": "who destroyed the American economy.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-017", "start": 2822.39, "end": 2823.13, "text": "They should be punished.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-018", "start": 2823.23, "end": 2825.47, "text": "Or at least they should feel some pain.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-019", "start": 2826.25, "end": 2830.06, "text": "If you just let them go and help them out and save", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-020", "start": 2830.06, "end": 2833.08, "text": "them, then you create a problem called moral hazard.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-021", "start": 2833.32, "end": 2837.46, "text": "The idea of moral hazard is if you don't have any consequences", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-022", "start": 2837.46, "end": 2839.54, "text": "for your mistake, you will do", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-023", "start": 2839.54, "end": 2839.8, "text": "it again.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "29ef74367dad506ba122591ea9d2beb55f31629cf3e23e136654cb0021897c2d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0051", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2788s", "time_label": "46:28", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0052", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the American economy. And that's why we're bailing out the banks by giving them free money. Okay? And then the critics were like, well, how about all these American friends? Homeowners who've lost their homes. Shouldn't we help them as well? And do you know what Larry Summers said? Moral hazard, guys. Do you understand? Moral hazard? If we help out these ordinary Americans, they won't learn anything. Okay? So as you can see, people were angry. The banks got saved. The people got screwed over. And guess what, guys? Because of this, who did we get? This guy. Okay? This is why he won. There were millions of Americans who voted for Barack Obama because he promised hope and change.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-001", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2842.46, "text": "Okay? 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Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-008", "start": 2859.33, "end": 2860.37, "text": "And then the critics were like,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-009", "start": 2860.53, "end": 2862.59, "text": "well, how about all these American friends?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-010", "start": 2862.61, "end": 2864.01, "text": "Homeowners who've lost their homes.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-011", "start": 2864.55, "end": 2865.65, "text": "Shouldn't we help them as well?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-012", "start": 2866.31, "end": 2867.91, "text": "And do you know what Larry Summers said?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-013", "start": 2869.26, "end": 2870.42, "text": "Moral hazard, guys.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-014", "start": 2871.14, "end": 2871.82, "text": "Do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-015", "start": 2871.98, "end": 2872.48, "text": "Moral hazard?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-016", "start": 2872.62, "end": 2875.3, "text": "If we help out these ordinary Americans,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-017", "start": 2875.66, "end": 2877.02, "text": "they won't learn anything.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-018", "start": 2878.84, "end": 2882.72, "text": "Okay? So as you can see,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-019", "start": 2882.92, "end": 2883.94, "text": "people were angry.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-020", "start": 2884.14, "end": 2885.58, "text": "The banks got saved.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-021", "start": 2885.82, "end": 2887.2, "text": "The people got screwed over.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-022", "start": 2887.62, "end": 2888.6, "text": "And guess what, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-023", "start": 2889.04, "end": 2891.94, "text": "Because of this, who did we get?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-024", "start": 2892.52, "end": 2893.2, "text": "This guy.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-025", "start": 2894.5, "end": 2895.32, "text": "Okay? This is why he won.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-026", "start": 2895.76, "end": 2900.7, "text": "There were millions of Americans who voted for Barack Obama because he", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-027", "start": 2900.7, "end": 2901.66, "text": "promised hope and change.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "e337396fbc81091e24d1d376acfd42cd29bb0eeaa229e60442d8d0fed417e43b", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0052", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2840s", "time_label": "47:20", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0053", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2959.23, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy the system. Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump. Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama. So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always adversaries. In fact, Donald Trump led a movement which accused Barack Obama of not being born in America. He's born in America, but Donald Trump was saying, no, he was actually born in Nigeria. His father is from Nigeria. So Barack Obama made fun of Donald Trump. 2011, there's a big dinner, the White House Correspondents' Dinner, where Barack Obama gets on stage and he makes fun of Donald Trump. Okay? He says, hey, if Donald Trump ever became president, this is what the White House would look like. It'd be a casino. Okay? And this is funny, right? Donald Trump was in the audience that day. No. And everyone was laughing at him. And that's what motivated Donald Trump to become president of the United States.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-001", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2905.08, "text": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-002", "start": 2905.08, "end": 2905.72, "text": "the system.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-003", "start": 2906.8, "end": 2909.12, "text": "Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-004", "start": 2910.44, "end": 2913.84, "text": "Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-005", "start": 2914.08, "end": 2916.72, "text": "So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always adversaries.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-006", "start": 2916.86, "end": 2921.14, "text": "In fact, Donald Trump led a movement which accused Barack Obama of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-007", "start": 2921.14, "end": 2923.04, "text": "not being born in America.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-008", "start": 2924.34, "end": 2926.86, "text": "He's born in America, but Donald Trump was saying,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-009", "start": 2926.92, "end": 2928.34, "text": "no, he was actually born in Nigeria.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-010", "start": 2928.7, "end": 2929.84, "text": "His father is from Nigeria.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-011", "start": 2930.88, "end": 2932.92, "text": "So Barack Obama made fun of Donald Trump.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-012", "start": 2933.14, "end": 2934.84, "text": "2011, there's a big dinner,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-013", "start": 2934.96, "end": 2936.22, "text": "the White House Correspondents' Dinner,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-014", "start": 2936.42, "end": 2939.4, "text": "where Barack Obama gets on stage and he makes fun of Donald", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-015", "start": 2939.4, "end": 2939.94, "text": "Trump. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-016", "start": 2940.06, "end": 2942.5, "text": "He says, hey, if Donald Trump ever became president,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-017", "start": 2942.68, "end": 2944.14, "text": "this is what the White House would look like.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-018", "start": 2944.2, "end": 2944.66, "text": "It'd be a casino.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-019", "start": 2945.22, "end": 2948.2, "text": "Okay? And this is funny,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-020", "start": 2948.26, "end": 2951.49, "text": "right? Donald Trump was in the audience that day.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-021", "start": 2951.61, "end": 2955.03, "text": "No. And everyone was laughing at him.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-022", "start": 2955.61, "end": 2956.97, "text": "And that's what motivated", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-023", "start": 2956.97, "end": 2959.23, "text": "Donald Trump to become president of the United States.", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "b0cf8e577126f9a772cf1fe6782ae4990d90261d0892a6158c69aca32171bc88", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0053", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2902s", "time_label": "48:22", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0054", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "start": 2959.93, "end": 3018.62, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump. Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump. Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama. It's a lot of people in the American political class. They're just soulless robots. Okay? This man is JD Vance. He's the vice president for Donald Trump. Like Barack Obama, he wrote a book, a bestseller called Hillbilly Elegy. And it's possible he becomes president of the United States as well. Now, you may not know this, but when he first came to prominence, he opposed Donald Trump. He thought that Donald Trump would be a fascist and be a dictator and all that. And then suddenly he changes his opinion and says Donald Trump is the greatest guy in the world. Okay? So these guys, like JD Vance and Barack Obama, they have no ideas of their own. They're just puppets. They just tell people what they want to hear.", "word_count": 153, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-001", "start": 2959.93, "end": 2963.13, "text": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-002", "start": 2963.35, "end": 2965.45, "text": "Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-003", "start": 2969.03, "end": 2973.39, "text": "Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-004", "start": 2973.63, "end": 2977.71, "text": "It's a lot of people in the American political class.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-005", "start": 2978.13, "end": 2981.84, "text": "They're just soulless robots.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-006", "start": 2982.2, "end": 2984.5, "text": "Okay? This man is JD Vance.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-007", "start": 2984.5, "end": 2986.02, "text": "He's the vice president for Donald Trump.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-008", "start": 2986.66, "end": 2988.6, "text": "Like Barack Obama, he wrote a book,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-009", "start": 2988.72, "end": 2990.56, "text": "a bestseller called Hillbilly Elegy.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-010", "start": 2990.8, "end": 2994.38, "text": "And it's possible he becomes president of the United States as well.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-011", "start": 2994.9, "end": 2996.1, "text": "Now, you may not know this,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-012", "start": 2996.2, "end": 2998.62, "text": "but when he first came to prominence,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-013", "start": 2998.7, "end": 2999.92, "text": "he opposed Donald Trump.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-014", "start": 3000.3, "end": 3003.54, "text": "He thought that Donald Trump would be a fascist and be a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-015", "start": 3003.54, "end": 3004.68, "text": "dictator and all that.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-016", "start": 3004.92, "end": 3007.84, "text": "And then suddenly he changes his opinion and says Donald Trump is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-017", "start": 3007.84, "end": 3008.54, "text": "the greatest guy in the world.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-018", "start": 3008.84, "end": 3011.66, "text": "Okay? So these guys, like JD Vance and Barack Obama,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-019", "start": 3011.76, "end": 3013.38, "text": "they have no ideas of their own.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-020", "start": 3013.38, "end": 3014.7, "text": "They're just puppets.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-021", "start": 3014.76, "end": 3018.4, "text": "They just tell people what they want", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-022", "start": 3018.4, "end": 3018.62, "text": "to hear.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "262af652fa6c4d49f195ee5a520a4e10232b65455b2d11e8d849e00c1087b857", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0054", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=2959s", "time_label": "49:19", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0055", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "start": 3020.77, "end": 3079.64, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "All they know is a chief. Okay? So another example of this, this man's name is Johnny Kim. Okay? And he'll probably run for president of the United States one day or at least be a U.S. Senator. Why do I mention him? Guess what, guys? He was a Navy SEAL, which is the top position you can ever achieve in the military. He was a secret soldier. Okay? He went to Harvard Medical School and became a doctor. Then he joined NASA and became an astronaut. This is like the ideal Ivy League graduate. Okay? This is what Harvard wants. Now, why is he able to do all this? Well, because this is his Wikipedia entry. Okay? In 2002, the police went into his house and killed his father. He was there and he saw the police killed his father. He was traumatized for life. His father was a domestic abuser. The father was violent, crazy, hit him all the time.", "word_count": 163, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-001", "start": 3020.77, "end": 3022.03, "text": "All they know is a chief.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-002", "start": 3022.21, "end": 3024.19, "text": "Okay? So another example of this,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-003", "start": 3024.27, "end": 3025.61, "text": "this man's name is Johnny Kim.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-004", "start": 3025.99, "end": 3029.39, "text": "Okay? And he'll probably run for president of the United States one", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-005", "start": 3029.39, "end": 3030.63, "text": "day or at least be a U.S.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-006", "start": 3030.67, "end": 3032.97, "text": "Senator. Why do I mention him?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-007", "start": 3033.19, "end": 3033.97, "text": "Guess what, guys?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-008", "start": 3034.37, "end": 3035.47, "text": "He was a Navy SEAL,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-009", "start": 3035.57, "end": 3039.77, "text": "which is the top position you can ever achieve in the military.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-010", "start": 3040.03, "end": 3041.19, "text": "He was a secret soldier.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-011", "start": 3041.39, "end": 3044.47, "text": "Okay? He went to Harvard Medical School and became a doctor.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-012", "start": 3044.47, "end": 3047.5, "text": "Then he joined NASA and became an astronaut.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-013", "start": 3049.48, "end": 3053.1, "text": "This is like the ideal Ivy League graduate.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-014", "start": 3053.3, "end": 3054.84, "text": "Okay? This is what Harvard wants.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-015", "start": 3055.64, "end": 3057.7, "text": "Now, why is he able to do all this?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-016", "start": 3058.06, "end": 3063.25, "text": "Well, because this is his Wikipedia entry.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-017", "start": 3063.37, "end": 3069.12, "text": "Okay? In 2002, the police went into his house and killed his", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-018", "start": 3069.12, "end": 3072.22, "text": "father. He was there and he saw the police killed his father.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-019", "start": 3072.3, "end": 3073.54, "text": "He was traumatized for life.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-020", "start": 3074.08, "end": 3076.4, "text": "His father was a domestic abuser.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-021", "start": 3076.4, "end": 3078.48, "text": "The father was violent, crazy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-022", "start": 3078.74, "end": 3079.64, "text": "hit him all the time.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "bc120993b8ef0dcbae08b84f8ba3ce51aae50175790520f8c6b364cac98eaae9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0055", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3020s", "time_label": "50:20", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0056", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because he turned the trauma into an energy to drive him to greater and greater achievement. The problem, though, is he has no ideas of his own. He's just a puppet, guys. Okay? So let's conclude and summarize why the meritocracy is so great. It creates this extreme inequality in America. Okay? So it destroyed the school system, because all people care about are their grades now. Right? People don't even care about learning anymore. All they want are the grades. In fact, if you get a bad grade, you'll probably complain to the teacher, in which case the teacher is now afraid to teach you. Because if the teacher tries to challenge you, make you a better student, you'll just complain.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-001", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3083.06, "text": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-002", "start": 3084.08, "end": 3087.14, "text": "And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-003", "start": 3087.14, "end": 3089.76, "text": "people, they do have dissociative personality disorder.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-004", "start": 3091.66, "end": 3094.32, "text": "And that's why he was able to do all this,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-005", "start": 3094.34, "end": 3101.06, "text": "because he turned the trauma into an energy to drive him to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-006", "start": 3101.06, "end": 3102.22, "text": "greater and greater achievement.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-007", "start": 3102.52, "end": 3106.76, "text": "The problem, though, is he has no ideas of his own.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-008", "start": 3106.76, "end": 3108.04, "text": "He's just a puppet, guys.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-009", "start": 3108.28, "end": 3115.13, "text": "Okay? So let's conclude and summarize why the meritocracy is so great.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-010", "start": 3115.61, "end": 3118.13, "text": "It creates this extreme inequality in America.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-011", "start": 3118.39, "end": 3122.17, "text": "Okay? So it destroyed the school system,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-012", "start": 3122.29, "end": 3125.32, "text": "because all people care about are their grades now.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-013", "start": 3125.54, "end": 3127.32, "text": "Right? People don't even care about learning anymore.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-014", "start": 3127.38, "end": 3129.16, "text": "All they want are the grades.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-015", "start": 3129.5, "end": 3132.28, "text": "In fact, if you get a bad grade,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-016", "start": 3132.56, "end": 3133.62, "text": "you'll probably complain to the teacher,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-017", "start": 3133.74, "end": 3136.12, "text": "in which case the teacher is now afraid to teach you.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-018", "start": 3136.12, "end": 3139.16, "text": "Because if the teacher tries to challenge you,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-019", "start": 3139.18, "end": 3139.9, "text": "make you a better student,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-020", "start": 3140.12, "end": 3141.2, "text": "you'll just complain.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "325736c585e342d78328fd69e458af43a50545b3ce106d0f4fa6fd7bceee59a4", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0056", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3080s", "time_label": "51:20", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0057", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "start": 3141.52, "end": 3199.56, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? And if you don't succeed, your parents will come and complain. Okay? Traumatized children. Okay? Okay? If you look at the rate of mental illness in China, in America, it's just insane. Death of American dream and social mobility. You're not going to be richer than your parents. You're just not. Constitution of wealth, power, and status in the 1%. The rich just got richer. The political divide between left and right. Okay? So you have all these political divisions right now in America. Corruption. So Wall Street just steals and steals and steals, and no one can do anything about it. Destruction of American identity, globalization, immigration, woke ideology. Okay? Incompetent mismanagement. You look at COVID. You look at the fact that America now has $37 trillion in debt. An elite that is soulless, mediocre, and unimaginative. Okay? Barack Obama. Judy Vance. This guy, Johnny Kim. Okay? They're just robots. Oh, and Donald Trump. Okay?", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-001", "start": 3141.52, "end": 3144.46, "text": "Okay? And if you don't succeed,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-002", "start": 3144.64, "end": 3145.46, "text": "your parents will come and complain.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-003", "start": 3145.7, "end": 3147.61, "text": "Okay? Traumatized children.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-004", "start": 3147.83, "end": 3148.77, "text": "Okay? Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-005", "start": 3149.23, "end": 3152.43, "text": "If you look at the rate of mental illness in China,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-006", "start": 3152.45, "end": 3154.39, "text": "in America, it's just insane.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-007", "start": 3155.85, "end": 3157.39, "text": "Death of American dream and social mobility.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-008", "start": 3158.17, "end": 3159.61, "text": "You're not going to be richer than your parents.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-009", "start": 3159.73, "end": 3160.09, "text": "You're just not.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-010", "start": 3161.01, "end": 3163.39, "text": "Constitution of wealth, power, and status in the 1%.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-011", "start": 3163.39, "end": 3165.37, "text": "The rich just got richer.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-012", "start": 3165.37, "end": 3169.09, "text": "The political divide between left and right.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-013", "start": 3169.31, "end": 3171.43, "text": "Okay? So you have all these political divisions right now in America.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-014", "start": 3172.33, "end": 3175.47, "text": "Corruption. So Wall Street just steals and steals and steals,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-015", "start": 3175.73, "end": 3177.13, "text": "and no one can do anything about it.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-016", "start": 3177.41, "end": 3179.49, "text": "Destruction of American identity, globalization,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-017", "start": 3179.89, "end": 3180.93, "text": "immigration, woke ideology.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-018", "start": 3181.75, "end": 3184.31, "text": "Okay? Incompetent mismanagement.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-019", "start": 3184.43, "end": 3184.89, "text": "You look at COVID.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-020", "start": 3185.21, "end": 3187.83, "text": "You look at the fact that America now has $37 trillion in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-021", "start": 3187.83, "end": 3190.56, "text": "debt. An elite that is soulless,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-022", "start": 3190.7, "end": 3192.04, "text": "mediocre, and unimaginative.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-023", "start": 3192.14, "end": 3192.98, "text": "Okay? Barack Obama.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-024", "start": 3193.1, "end": 3193.58, "text": "Judy Vance.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-025", "start": 3193.58, "end": 3194.82, "text": "This guy, Johnny Kim.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-026", "start": 3195, "end": 3196.28, "text": "Okay? They're just robots.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-027", "start": 3197.35, "end": 3198.41, "text": "Oh, and Donald Trump.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-028", "start": 3199.08, "end": 3199.56, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "034c3062358842eee7b780e47f64a8a95aa25ebf9c495ce75be5ef40d3bb1553", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0057", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3141s", "time_label": "52:21", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0058", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "start": 3199.62, "end": 3204.03, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world.", "word_count": 9, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-001", "start": 3199.62, "end": 3201.24, "text": "So thank you, American meritocracy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-002", "start": 3201.42, "end": 3204.03, "text": "for destroying the world.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "695f0fd1cc8ace97b68b30cbdb131433519dd639468e7e0b6910df27ca70b8df", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0058", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3199s", "time_label": "53:19", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0059", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "start": 3205.25, "end": 3205.73, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-001", "start": 3205.25, "end": 3205.73, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "fbde817e595df0c8ff19d0091636466638f3742d52658615f50e09b97747e85f", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0059", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3205s", "time_label": "53:25", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0060", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "start": 3206.79, "end": 3231.98, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "All right. Questions, guys. I know this was a lot to take in, but do you have any questions? You're all depressed and sad and shocked. Yep. We have a question. Thank you.", "word_count": 33, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-001", "start": 3206.79, "end": 3207.39, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-002", "start": 3207.45, "end": 3208.09, "text": "Questions, guys.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-003", "start": 3212.48, "end": 3214.1, "text": "I know this was a lot to take in,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-004", "start": 3214.28, "end": 3216.48, "text": "but do you have any questions?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-005", "start": 3220.6, "end": 3226.08, "text": "You're all depressed and sad and shocked.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-006", "start": 3230.06, "end": 3231.12, "text": "Yep. We have a question.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-007", "start": 3231.36, "end": 3231.98, "text": "Thank you.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "c932f7a1e1b488babd9c80c63da8d576e9fd394ab114758e5b6cb4b3ea86f200", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0060", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3206s", "time_label": "53:26", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0061", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "start": 3233.6, "end": 3249.26, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Is there a way to get rid of all those bad things? All the bad impacts of this? I mean, is there some suggestions for us to help us better develop ourselves, not just using this system?", "word_count": 37, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-001", "start": 3233.6, "end": 3237, "text": "Is there a way to get rid of all those bad things?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-002", "start": 3237, "end": 3240, "text": "All the bad impacts of this?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-003", "start": 3240.58, "end": 3246.2, "text": "I mean, is there some suggestions for us to help us better", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-004", "start": 3246.2, "end": 3249.26, "text": "develop ourselves, not just using this system?", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "0e65c0cdd684a5b32caebbc81b37e94f0cae4319a2a50c8e897501ff9425c434", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0061", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3233s", "time_label": "53:53", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0062", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and control them. Because a lot of the issues stems from the fact that these are institutions that only care about their own power. Okay? So the government were in charge, they won't be so powerful and secretive. Okay? So that's the best solution. It's not going to happen. Because Harvard, as you can see, it's too powerful, as well as Yale. So as an individual, your best option is to recognize how evil the system is and choose to learn for yourself. Okay? Because when you go to Yale or Harvard or Princeton, you think you're learning, but you're not. You're being indoctrinated and being brainwashed and being traumatized to be turned into basically a robot that's only focused on success.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-001", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3251.24, "text": "Okay. Great question.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-002", "start": 3251.34, "end": 3257.44, "text": "Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-003", "start": 3258.05, "end": 3261.07, "text": "Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-004", "start": 3261.19, "end": 3262.77, "text": "The best way is to make them public,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-005", "start": 3262.97, "end": 3265.95, "text": "for the government to come in and control them.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-006", "start": 3266.55, "end": 3268.73, "text": "Because a lot of the issues stems from the fact that these", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-007", "start": 3268.73, "end": 3271.55, "text": "are institutions that only care about their own power.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-008", "start": 3272.78, "end": 3274.64, "text": "Okay? So the government were in charge,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-009", "start": 3274.9, "end": 3278.54, "text": "they won't be so powerful and secretive.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-010", "start": 3278.66, "end": 3279.58, "text": "Okay? So that's the best solution.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-011", "start": 3279.74, "end": 3280.32, "text": "It's not going to happen.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-012", "start": 3280.64, "end": 3281.92, "text": "Because Harvard, as you can see,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-013", "start": 3281.98, "end": 3283.7, "text": "it's too powerful, as well as Yale.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-014", "start": 3285.87, "end": 3292.83, "text": "So as an individual, your best option is to recognize how evil", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-015", "start": 3292.83, "end": 3299.12, "text": "the system is and choose to learn for yourself.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-016", "start": 3299.22, "end": 3302.66, "text": "Okay? Because when you go to Yale or Harvard or Princeton,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-017", "start": 3302.92, "end": 3305.17, "text": "you think you're learning, but you're not.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-018", "start": 3305.21, "end": 3309.23, "text": "You're being indoctrinated and being brainwashed and being traumatized to be turned", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-019", "start": 3309.23, "end": 3312.07, "text": "into basically a robot that's only focused", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-020", "start": 3312.07, "end": 3312.47, "text": "on success.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "6005f63dc6643ef29f6021384425bf24c17482bc156cfe397d438772158aa9cb", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0062", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3249s", "time_label": "54:09", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0063", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real success? Well, before the meritocracy, you didn't have to go to college, but you need to have certain values and attitude. Okay? So the first was to be open -minded. And so recognize that you have a lot to learn and ask questions, learn from other people. Okay? And what people recognized was failure is the best teacher. Why? Because failure forces reflection. Right? And resilience, which leads to learning. Okay? And this is a model that most people understood before the meritocracy. Keep in mind, make mistakes because if you make mistakes, you will learn from them naturally. And then you can reflect and then you can become resilient, and then you will grow and grow, and then you will achieve your true potential.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-001", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3315.19, "text": "So you need to recognize this,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-002", "start": 3315.25, "end": 3318.93, "text": "be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-003", "start": 3319.51, "end": 3321.15, "text": "Okay? So what do I mean by that?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-004", "start": 3321.65, "end": 3324.61, "text": "Okay. So let me, sorry,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-005", "start": 3324.77, "end": 3326.83, "text": "let me explain.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-006", "start": 3328.46, "end": 3329.64, "text": "Okay. So success.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-007", "start": 3329.84, "end": 3331.51, "text": "Okay. So what is success?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-008", "start": 3331.51, "end": 3332.11, "text": "What is real success?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-009", "start": 3333.05, "end": 3337.43, "text": "Well, before the meritocracy, you didn't have to go to college,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-010", "start": 3337.59, "end": 3340.93, "text": "but you need to have certain values and attitude.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-011", "start": 3341.84, "end": 3344.54, "text": "Okay? So the first was to be open -minded.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-012", "start": 3349.15, "end": 3354.43, "text": "And so recognize that you have a lot to learn and ask", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-013", "start": 3354.43, "end": 3355.91, "text": "questions, learn from other people.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-014", "start": 3355.97, "end": 3363.82, "text": "Okay? And what people recognized was failure is the best teacher.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-015", "start": 3364.79, "end": 3367.51, "text": "Why? Because failure forces reflection.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-016", "start": 3367.51, "end": 3375.56, "text": "Right? And resilience, which leads to learning.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-017", "start": 3376.76, "end": 3379.68, "text": "Okay? And this is a model that most people understood before the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-018", "start": 3379.68, "end": 3383.52, "text": "meritocracy. Keep in mind, make mistakes because if you make mistakes,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-019", "start": 3383.68, "end": 3385.2, "text": "you will learn from them naturally.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-020", "start": 3385.62, "end": 3389.9, "text": "And then you can reflect and then you can become resilient,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-021", "start": 3390.1, "end": 3391.56, "text": "and then you will grow and", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-022", "start": 3391.56, "end": 3393.9, "text": "grow, and then you will achieve your true potential.", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "9357b7d27f6aa1095b0dd5e76c6f743555a5c89363c822b716cef92fe4dbe269", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0063", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3313s", "time_label": "55:13", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0064", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you may learn a lot from your failure, but it won't look good on your GPA, right? It will destroy your GPA, and you won't get into Harvard, okay? You don't have failure, you cannot have reflection, you cannot have resilience. Also, before, you had time for yourself. Nowadays, every minute is organized for you, right? You come to school, the school day is very long, then you have lots of homework, and then you have activities, then you have to have dinner, then all that. You don't even have time to just think for yourself, to just chill and do what you want to do, okay? It's intentional, okay? So it's destroying reflection, you don't have any resilience, and so you can't learn anything.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-001", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3397.36, "text": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-002", "start": 3397.78, "end": 3403.09, "text": "Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-003", "start": 3403.39, "end": 3406.45, "text": "okay? And to get good grades,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-004", "start": 3406.59, "end": 3409.05, "text": "you cannot fail, you understand?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-005", "start": 3409.55, "end": 3411.77, "text": "Failure now is a problem.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-006", "start": 3412.29, "end": 3413.67, "text": "If you fail a class,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-007", "start": 3413.87, "end": 3416.78, "text": "you may learn a lot from your failure,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-008", "start": 3416.88, "end": 3418.86, "text": "but it won't look good on your GPA,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-009", "start": 3419.08, "end": 3420.26, "text": "right? It will destroy your GPA,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-010", "start": 3420.46, "end": 3421.88, "text": "and you won't get into Harvard,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-011", "start": 3422.04, "end": 3424.55, "text": "okay? You don't have failure,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-012", "start": 3424.69, "end": 3427.35, "text": "you cannot have reflection, you cannot have resilience.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-013", "start": 3427.35, "end": 3432.3, "text": "Also, before, you had time for yourself.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-014", "start": 3433.24, "end": 3436.84, "text": "Nowadays, every minute is organized for you,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-015", "start": 3436.9, "end": 3438.46, "text": "right? You come to school,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-016", "start": 3438.64, "end": 3439.78, "text": "the school day is very long,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-017", "start": 3439.98, "end": 3441.12, "text": "then you have lots of homework,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-018", "start": 3441.6, "end": 3442.68, "text": "and then you have activities,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-019", "start": 3443.38, "end": 3444.76, "text": "then you have to have dinner,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-020", "start": 3444.9, "end": 3445.5, "text": "then all that.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-021", "start": 3445.58, "end": 3448.62, "text": "You don't even have time to just think for yourself,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-022", "start": 3448.9, "end": 3451.04, "text": "to just chill and do what you want to do,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-023", "start": 3451.14, "end": 3453.4, "text": "okay? It's intentional, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-024", "start": 3454.04, "end": 3454.48, "text": "So it's", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-025", "start": 3454.48, "end": 3456.7, "text": "destroying reflection, you don't have any resilience,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-026", "start": 3456.7, "end": 3458.6, "text": "and so you can't learn anything.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "0648ce0cfd4a6952ff3ba7cd9bb3e984c9befed4c1f8a192fe25bfd2dd559637", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0064", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3394s", "time_label": "56:34", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0065", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "start": 3461.55, "end": 3513.534, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So it's a really bad system, because if you're like me, okay, you're just a normal person, your family's not rich or powerful, and you go to Yale and Harvard, it actually makes you fail in life, okay? Let me explain why. Okay, the first is, it makes you arrogant. It makes you think, I went to Yale, therefore I know more than anyone else, so I don't have to ask questions, I don't have to learn anymore, okay? Second, is that you're not going to be able to do anything. Third, is that it makes you utilitarian. You only care about things that help you succeed. You're not actually interested in real learning anymore. Okay? And the third thing is, all you care about is success, so you're narrow -minded. You don't want to explore, okay? You're not so creative anymore, okay?", "word_count": 143, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-001", "start": 3461.55, "end": 3464.66, "text": "So it's a really bad system,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-002", "start": 3464.8, "end": 3466.3, "text": "because if you're like me,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-003", "start": 3466.54, "end": 3467.9, "text": "okay, you're just a normal person,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-004", "start": 3468.02, "end": 3469.78, "text": "your family's not rich or powerful,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-005", "start": 3470, "end": 3471.28, "text": "and you go to Yale and Harvard,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-006", "start": 3471.5, "end": 3473.62, "text": "it actually makes you fail in life,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-007", "start": 3473.8, "end": 3474.48, "text": "okay? Let me explain why.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-008", "start": 3475.1, "end": 3478.08, "text": "Okay, the first is, it makes you arrogant.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-009", "start": 3479.19, "end": 3481.67, "text": "It makes you think, I went to Yale,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-010", "start": 3481.75, "end": 3483.29, "text": "therefore I know more than anyone else,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-011", "start": 3483.33, "end": 3484.45, "text": "so I don't have to ask questions,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-012", "start": 3484.49, "end": 3485.13, "text": "I don't have to learn anymore,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-013", "start": 3485.31, "end": 3487.99, "text": "okay? Second, is that you're not going to be able to do", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-014", "start": 3487.99, "end": 3489.99, "text": "anything. Third, is that it makes you utilitarian.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-015", "start": 3491.93, "end": 3494.39, "text": "You only care about things that help you succeed.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-016", "start": 3494.65, "end": 3497.49, "text": "You're not actually interested in real learning anymore.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-017", "start": 3498.78, "end": 3502.12, "text": "Okay? And the third thing is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-018", "start": 3502.78, "end": 3506.18, "text": "all you care about is success,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-019", "start": 3506.42, "end": 3507.24, "text": "so you're narrow -minded.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-020", "start": 3508.78, "end": 3509.92, "text": "You don't want to explore,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-021", "start": 3510.14, "end": 3512.58, "text": "okay? You're not so creative anymore,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-022", "start": 3512.76, "end": 3513.534, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "2009eb03ceb5f180c7f4aa3e3e0c95c24aa063b20af53c512b13b8e44e70b9ce", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0065", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3461s", "time_label": "57:41", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0066", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "start": 3513.534, "end": 3574.88, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So it's a great system if you come from a rich family, because this system trains you to go into power. But if you're just like me, and you need to work hard and be talented, and be committed to your passion in order to succeed, this actually destroys all that. And that's why probably the most traumatized people in America are those who came from poor families, who had a dream of going to the Ivy League, who got in the Ivy League, and then they just failed in life, because they don't have the, you know, life skills, right? They don't have the ability to succeed. They don't have the reflective ability. They don't have the resilience. They're not open -minded. They don't accept failure. They're not committed to learning. They're only committed to success, okay? So if you're rich, go to Harvard and Yale and Princeton, because you'll become more rich. But if you're a poor person, going to these schools may be a mistake, okay?", "word_count": 169, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-001", "start": 3513.534, "end": 3518.65, "text": "So it's a great system if you come from a rich family,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-002", "start": 3519.27, "end": 3522.45, "text": "because this system trains you to go into power.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-003", "start": 3522.75, "end": 3523.83, "text": "But if you're just like me,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-004", "start": 3524.03, "end": 3527.09, "text": "and you need to work hard and be talented,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-005", "start": 3527.93, "end": 3530.73, "text": "and be committed to your passion in order to succeed,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-006", "start": 3531.03, "end": 3534.01, "text": "this actually destroys all that.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-007", "start": 3534.45, "end": 3540.53, "text": "And that's why probably the most traumatized people in America are those", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-008", "start": 3540.53, "end": 3541.93, "text": "who came from poor families,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-009", "start": 3542.09, "end": 3544.39, "text": "who had a dream of going to the Ivy League,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-010", "start": 3544.51, "end": 3545.51, "text": "who got in the Ivy League,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-011", "start": 3546.19, "end": 3550.02, "text": "and then they just failed in life,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-012", "start": 3550.06, "end": 3551.84, "text": "because they don't have the,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-013", "start": 3551.84, "end": 3552.22, "text": "you know, life skills, right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-014", "start": 3552.24, "end": 3553.68, "text": "They don't have the ability to succeed.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-015", "start": 3553.8, "end": 3555.34, "text": "They don't have the reflective ability.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-016", "start": 3555.5, "end": 3556.36, "text": "They don't have the resilience.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-017", "start": 3556.66, "end": 3557.42, "text": "They're not open -minded.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-018", "start": 3557.68, "end": 3558.96, "text": "They don't accept failure.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-019", "start": 3559.3, "end": 3560.4, "text": "They're not committed to learning.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-020", "start": 3560.52, "end": 3561.36, "text": "They're only committed to success,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-021", "start": 3561.64, "end": 3563.97, "text": "okay? So if you're rich,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-022", "start": 3564.09, "end": 3565.83, "text": "go to Harvard and Yale and Princeton,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-023", "start": 3565.97, "end": 3567.21, "text": "because you'll become more rich.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-024", "start": 3567.57, "end": 3569.93, "text": "But if you're a poor person,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-025", "start": 3571.46, "end": 3572.6, "text": "going to these schools", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-026", "start": 3572.6, "end": 3574.88, "text": "may be a mistake, okay?", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "25f5e604e51e56913f4020f437ce26c066c85b896e98c8336ac2379885a0befa", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0066", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3513s", "time_label": "58:33", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0067", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time and effort to learning a real skill and learning a real passion. And so in my 30s, late 20s, early 30s, I became really depressed. And honestly, I thought about killing myself, and I was playing video games every single day. I just hid in my parents' basement. And so I was traumatized by Yale. It took me a long time to get over the trauma and recognize this is a false system, okay? Yale traumatized me, and I need to relearn to be open -minded, to embrace failure, to be resilient, to embrace learning, okay? And that's why I'm a teacher today, to teach you guys that to be successful in life, this is the formula, okay?", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-001", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3578.76, "text": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-002", "start": 3578.92, "end": 3581.98, "text": "because after I graduated, I stumbled through life.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-003", "start": 3582.92, "end": 3585.2, "text": "For me, it was just failure after failure after failure,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-004", "start": 3585.36, "end": 3587.56, "text": "because I wanted to succeed right away,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-005", "start": 3587.7, "end": 3592.69, "text": "okay? I refused to put the time and effort to learning a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-006", "start": 3592.69, "end": 3595.53, "text": "real skill and learning a real passion.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-007", "start": 3597.48, "end": 3600.74, "text": "And so in my 30s,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-008", "start": 3600.74, "end": 3603.42, "text": "late 20s, early 30s, I became really depressed.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-009", "start": 3604.84, "end": 3608.3, "text": "And honestly, I thought about killing myself,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-010", "start": 3608.44, "end": 3612.82, "text": "and I was playing video games every single day.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-011", "start": 3612.82, "end": 3614.7, "text": "I just hid in my parents' basement.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-012", "start": 3615.38, "end": 3618.44, "text": "And so I was traumatized by Yale.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-013", "start": 3618.52, "end": 3621.66, "text": "It took me a long time to get over the trauma and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-014", "start": 3621.66, "end": 3623.8, "text": "recognize this is a false system,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-015", "start": 3623.96, "end": 3628.5, "text": "okay? Yale traumatized me, and I need to relearn to be open", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-016", "start": 3628.5, "end": 3632.71, "text": "-minded, to embrace failure, to be resilient,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-017", "start": 3632.89, "end": 3634.93, "text": "to embrace learning, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-018", "start": 3635.11, "end": 3636.31, "text": "And that's why I'm a teacher today,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-019", "start": 3636.45, "end": 3639.57, "text": "to teach you guys that to be successful in life,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-020", "start": 3639.75, "end": 3640.39, "text": "this is the", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-021", "start": 3640.39, "end": 3640.99, "text": "formula, okay?", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "a2f3256f063ce41b51dc1874561ce16807d9402cad2585165842d09a7f2cbb12", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0067", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3574s", "time_label": "59:34", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0068", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "start": 3640.99, "end": 3650.11, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "You don't need Harvard, Yale, and Princeton, all right? All right, any more questions, guys? Yep?", "word_count": 16, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-001", "start": 3640.99, "end": 3642.37, "text": "You don't need Harvard, Yale,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-002", "start": 3642.55, "end": 3645.94, "text": "and Princeton, all right?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-003", "start": 3648.41, "end": 3649.57, "text": "All right, any more questions,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-004", "start": 3649.61, "end": 3650.11, "text": "guys? Yep?", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "2f42640472371c40c20720f765f08112e06d87dce0b6e37994cfcef511e5f960", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0068", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3640s", "time_label": "1:00:40", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0069", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3662.29, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Well, can we do both, like open -minded and get the grades and being rich? Okay. Is it a possible thing?", "word_count": 21, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0069-chunk-001", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3656.45, "text": "Well, can we do both,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0069-chunk-002", "start": 3656.53, "end": 3659.77, "text": "like open -minded and get the grades and being rich?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0069-chunk-003", "start": 3660.11, "end": 3662.29, "text": "Okay. Is it a possible thing?", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "0a12e01f65967532ca3e83f40574b091673f65732b96538eb0131e4bed86c25d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0069", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3654s", "time_label": "1:00:54", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0070", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic mode. There's the altruistic mode. And there's the utilitarian mode, okay? Okay, so utilitarian is what we call fight or flight, okay? Altruistic is just family and connections. So imagine we're back in the village, okay? And most of the time, we are, yeah?", "word_count": 81, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-001", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3663.21, "text": "Yeah, that's a great question.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-002", "start": 3663.29, "end": 3663.75, "text": "Thank you, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-003", "start": 3664.13, "end": 3667.06, "text": "All right, okay.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-004", "start": 3667.2, "end": 3669.34, "text": "So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-005", "start": 3669.38, "end": 3674.83, "text": "okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-006", "start": 3674.95, "end": 3677.37, "text": "okay? There's the altruistic mode.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-007", "start": 3677.37, "end": 3678.09, "text": "There's the altruistic mode.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-008", "start": 3678.19, "end": 3681.21, "text": "And there's the utilitarian mode,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-009", "start": 3681.94, "end": 3688.68, "text": "okay? Okay, so utilitarian is what we call fight or flight,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-010", "start": 3688.92, "end": 3694.71, "text": "okay? Altruistic is just family and connections.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-011", "start": 3695.05, "end": 3697.83, "text": "So imagine we're back in the village,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-012", "start": 3698.07, "end": 3700.55, "text": "okay? And most of the time,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-013", "start": 3700.67, "end": 3702.41, "text": "we are, yeah?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "6273da1b5330dcd0e479f913adf51fad8e1cae8a957bf1b3efc570b5925d72f0", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0070", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3662s", "time_label": "1:01:02", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0071", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing.", "word_count": 11, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0071-chunk-001", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "text": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "2a75a08bb44def8c19c9f5b143c73d1e203f08158e1d1a80025d43f8d17730f5", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0071", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3703s", "time_label": "1:01:43", "tags": [ "answer", "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0072", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? All right, so in the village, we spend most of the time being close to other people, right? We wanna be friends with other people, so we help each other out. But sometimes we have to be very utilitarian. So for example, if there's not enough food, okay? Or we're being attacked, guess what? Run, man, okay? So there are these two mindsets. And what psychologists have discovered is they are mutually exclusive. It's either one or the other. The other thing that they discovered is the altruistic mindset is what leads to creativity, okay? Creativity and passion and love, okay? And the utilitarian mindset is one that's focused on rewards, okay, like grades. So it is impossible to both want to have really good grades as well as help the world.", "word_count": 172, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-001", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3713.42, "text": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-002", "start": 3713.52, "end": 3714.9, "text": "There's some validity to it,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-003", "start": 3714.98, "end": 3718.82, "text": "okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-004", "start": 3718.92, "end": 3721.7, "text": "I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-005", "start": 3721.7, "end": 3722.1, "text": "work, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-006", "start": 3722.42, "end": 3722.92, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-007", "start": 3723.08, "end": 3726.04, "text": "All right, so in the village,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-008", "start": 3726.1, "end": 3729.43, "text": "we spend most of the time being close to other people,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-009", "start": 3729.51, "end": 3730.83, "text": "right? We wanna be friends with other people,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-010", "start": 3730.85, "end": 3731.73, "text": "so we help each other out.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-011", "start": 3732.42, "end": 3737.68, "text": "But sometimes we have to be very utilitarian.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-012", "start": 3737.68, "end": 3741.5, "text": "So for example, if there's not enough food,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-013", "start": 3741.6, "end": 3743.22, "text": "okay? Or we're being attacked,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-014", "start": 3743.56, "end": 3744.02, "text": "guess what?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-015", "start": 3744.16, "end": 3745.64, "text": "Run, man, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-016", "start": 3745.86, "end": 3747.84, "text": "So there are these two mindsets.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-017", "start": 3747.94, "end": 3751.92, "text": "And what psychologists have discovered is they are mutually exclusive.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-018", "start": 3752.46, "end": 3754.82, "text": "It's either one or the other.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-019", "start": 3755.66, "end": 3759.58, "text": "The other thing that they discovered is the altruistic mindset is what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-020", "start": 3759.58, "end": 3761.46, "text": "leads to creativity, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-021", "start": 3762.44, "end": 3766.79, "text": "Creativity and passion and love,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-022", "start": 3766.89, "end": 3774.45, "text": "okay? And the utilitarian mindset is one that's focused on rewards,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-023", "start": 3774.63, "end": 3776.42, "text": "okay, like grades.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-024", "start": 3777.54, "end": 3780.46, "text": "So it is impossible to both", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-025", "start": 3780.46, "end": 3784.32, "text": "want to have really good grades as well as help the world.", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "43e8d6e0f6b485bdc47f255bbdda1ffc97cabd0eaa3db47cf6b4ceec6a9754cd", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0072", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3708s", "time_label": "1:01:48", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0073", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying to be a billionaire. At the same time, I know it's important, okay? I know it's important to be loyal to Harvard. So I will die being loyal to Harvard, okay? And the only people who can do this are people who have the soul -stiff personality disorder. Okay? And they can test for that in your application. They're so experienced that they know exactly how you think, okay? They all, like, come on, guys. You will not apply to Harvard if you're not utilitarian, okay? Right? But you have to pretend you're not. And that's what makes people crazy, okay?", "word_count": 144, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-001", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3786.94, "text": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-002", "start": 3787.02, "end": 3788.3, "text": "okay? So in your application,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-003", "start": 3788.64, "end": 3790.26, "text": "you have to say to Harvard,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-004", "start": 3790.86, "end": 3791.88, "text": "I have a passion.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-005", "start": 3792.04, "end": 3793.4, "text": "I will die for my passion.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-006", "start": 3793.68, "end": 3795.06, "text": "But at the same time,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-007", "start": 3795.08, "end": 3796.36, "text": "I wanna be a billionaire.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-008", "start": 3796.58, "end": 3798.34, "text": "And I will die trying to be a billionaire.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-009", "start": 3798.56, "end": 3800.58, "text": "At the same time, I know it's important,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-010", "start": 3800.64, "end": 3801.9, "text": "okay? I know it's important to be loyal to Harvard.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-011", "start": 3802.16, "end": 3803.74, "text": "So I will die being loyal to Harvard,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-012", "start": 3803.86, "end": 3806.62, "text": "okay? And the only people who can do this are people who", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-013", "start": 3806.62, "end": 3808.58, "text": "have the soul -stiff personality disorder.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-014", "start": 3809.74, "end": 3812.9, "text": "Okay? And they can test for that in your application.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-015", "start": 3813.36, "end": 3817.22, "text": "They're so experienced that they know exactly how you think,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-016", "start": 3817.3, "end": 3818.56, "text": "okay? They all, like, come on,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-017", "start": 3818.56, "end": 3822.24, "text": "guys. You will not apply to Harvard if you're not utilitarian,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-018", "start": 3822.34, "end": 3823.69, "text": "okay? Right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-019", "start": 3825.44, "end": 3827.04, "text": "But you have to pretend you're not.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-020", "start": 3828.33, "end": 3829.61, "text": "And that's what makes people crazy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-021", "start": 3829.77, "end": 3830.086, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "cc69023bdb60be39a89bc57299016d5578ed14283b82a5c38a3ab2c5f9259d15", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0073", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3784s", "time_label": "1:03:04", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0074", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama. The problem with Barack Obama is he's soulless. He stands for nothing, okay? In 2008, he promised people hope and change. The moment he gets in office, he's like, sorry, man, I was just joking. Why did you believe me? Okay? Then in 2012, when it was time for reelection, he said, oh, you know what? I what? I'm hoping change, okay? In 2016, he's like, you know what? Screw that. I'm going to go water skiing now, okay? So the man is actually soulless, stands for nothing, all right? Any more questions, guys? Okay, great. So thanks for today, and I'll see you guys after the break, okay? So we'll continue this after the break.", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-001", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3832.25, "text": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-002", "start": 3832.6, "end": 3835.32, "text": "Harvard wants the best actors in the world.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-003", "start": 3835.76, "end": 3837.04, "text": "They want people to go for,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-004", "start": 3837.12, "end": 3838.56, "text": "like, pretending that's something they're not,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-005", "start": 3838.7, "end": 3839.98, "text": "okay? They want Barack Obama.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-006", "start": 3840.28, "end": 3843.58, "text": "The problem with Barack Obama is he's soulless.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-007", "start": 3844.16, "end": 3846.38, "text": "He stands for nothing, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-008", "start": 3846.62, "end": 3849.16, "text": "In 2008, he promised people hope and change.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-009", "start": 3849.68, "end": 3850.88, "text": "The moment he gets in office,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-010", "start": 3851.04, "end": 3853.6, "text": "he's like, sorry, man, I was just joking.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-011", "start": 3853.94, "end": 3855.06, "text": "Why did you believe me?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-012", "start": 3856.5, "end": 3860.32, "text": "Okay? Then in 2012, when it was time for reelection,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-013", "start": 3861.12, "end": 3862.6, "text": "he said, oh, you know what?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-014", "start": 3862.78, "end": 3863.46, "text": "I what?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-015", "start": 3863.46, "end": 3864.76, "text": "I'm hoping change, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-016", "start": 3865.06, "end": 3866.66, "text": "In 2016, he's like, you know what?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-017", "start": 3866.66, "end": 3866.96, "text": "Screw that.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-018", "start": 3867.14, "end": 3868.82, "text": "I'm going to go water skiing now,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-019", "start": 3868.98, "end": 3871.25, "text": "okay? So the man is actually soulless,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-020", "start": 3871.33, "end": 3875.09, "text": "stands for nothing, all right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-021", "start": 3875.98, "end": 3876.8, "text": "Any more questions, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-022", "start": 3883.79, "end": 3884.43, "text": "Okay, great.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-023", "start": 3884.53, "end": 3887.83, "text": "So thanks for today, and I'll see you guys after the break,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-024", "start": 3887.95, "end": 3889.65, "text": "okay? So we'll continue this after the break.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "7c0cc09f98aec02bdb5a7725bc90c44f0a3e9fe6056f7a5d50678b9a8dbe5936", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa/transcript/#seg-0074", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU_8fJjtGxA&t=3830s", "time_label": "1:03:50", "tags": [ "monologue" ] } ], "interactions": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang introduces meritocracy as talent, ability, and hard work, then says the school-system ideal hides a destructive effect on American society and asks why American admissions became uniquely complicated.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 65.02, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good afternoon class. So this will be our last class before the break. We have a three -week break coming up. I hope that during these three weeks you have a chance to reflect on what we've learned because when we..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 67.13, "end": 134.11, "time_label": "1:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to explain to you why America has the world's most complicated admissions system. So in China, when you apply to university, you take the gaokao, you take an examination,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He roots American higher education in Protestant dissent: pilgrims seek a New Jerusalem, Bible literacy becomes a divine imperative, and Harvard begins as a minister-training school.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 134.11, "end": 203.54, "time_label": "2:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this time in history in England there's a major conflict between religious belief and the king okay the king is head of the Anglican Church which the official Church of England and there's no difference between the Angl..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 203.54, "end": 280.78, "time_label": "3:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "place called America it's far away go away there guys and leave me alone okay so the dissenters go as pilgrims to America to build their own theocracy what they believe to be the New Jerusalem or paradise on earth heave..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He tracks the Ivy League from religious colleges into rich social clubs, then explains state schools and research universities as the stronger practical and scientific system that threatened Harvard until the SAT scholarship pipeline redirected talent back to Harvard.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 280.78, "end": 344.94, "time_label": "4:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Bible so they needed places to study the Bible and so they founded Harvard and then Yale and then Princeton but over time as America became more wealthy it became also less religious and so the Ivy League became social..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 344.94, "end": 419.47, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "so it started state schools okay state schools what we call A &M okay you may have heard the term Texas A &M okay it means Texas agricultural these schools were built to train farmers engineers and soldiers okay trades..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 419.47, "end": 477.32, "time_label": "6:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade and then you go and get and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang says Harvard’s holistic admissions and character language emerged to balance alumni power with academic talent, historically to exclude Jews and today to manage Asian access while preserving Harvard power.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "time_label": "11:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He stages the admissions officer thought experiment: Harvard wants the applicant most likely to become powerful or famous, not the academically best student, and even welcomes brilliant rejects because selectivity metrics help the brand.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "time_label": "11:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important fo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 788.09, "end": 850.01, "time_label": "13:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Basketball player in America, okay? Okay. The third is the best student. And the fourth is the best math genius in the world. And the fourth is three generations of Harvard, okay? So your father, your grandfather, your..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "time_label": "14:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "A student asks whether all American admissions officers behave this way intentionally.", "speaker_attribution": "student", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 900.27, "end": 906.45, "time_label": "15:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Like, does all the admission officers in American college doing this intentionally?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang distinguishes elite schools from ordinary schools: the Ivy League can select for power because everyone wants in, while average colleges mainly recruit tuition-paying students.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering a student question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 906.95, "end": 927.81, "time_label": "15:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, that's a really good question, okay? So, if you're the Ivy League, you do this, because everyone wants to go to the Ivy League. But if you're an average school, you're actually just trying to recruit students, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "A student asks why Yale picked Jiang.", "speaker_attribution": "student", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 930.05, "end": 932.23, "time_label": "15:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, why did Yale pick you?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says he will explain through the venture-capital model, then reviews his own ordinary Yale application: public Canadian school, decent scores, thin activities, boring essay, and teachers who saw him as aggressive or ambitious.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering a student question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1153.19, "end": 1156.47, "time_label": "19:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the third is they will then judge my potential." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1158.72, "end": 1159.16, "time_label": "19:18", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1159.44, "end": 1222.42, "time_label": "19:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. So, my application. All right. So, I went to a public high school. It was good, but it's not a private high school. You get a better education at a private high school. Plus, it's in Canada. Okay? Which is li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Before the application details, he defines Harvard as a venture capital firm that prefers a small chance at a billion-dollar world-changer over a safe moderate return.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1153.19, "end": 1156.47, "time_label": "19:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the third is they will then judge my potential." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "A short “okay” is likely transcript noise or Jiang filler; the substantive focus remains his application profile.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1158.72, "end": 1159.16, "time_label": "19:18", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1159.44, "end": 1222.42, "time_label": "19:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. So, my application. All right. So, I went to a public high school. It was good, but it's not a private high school. You get a better education at a private high school. Plus, it's in Canada. Okay? Which is li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang explains the hidden background Yale could infer: poor immigrant status, transfer from poor to rich school, social exclusion, desperation, insecurity, and rule-breaking hunger. He says this looked like risky dissociative potential: he might collapse, or he might change the world.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1285.27, "end": 1342.91, "time_label": "21:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So how did I get in? Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from application that made them interested in me. The first is that I was poor, so I couldn't even afford the application fee. I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1343.21, "end": 1404.675, "time_label": "22:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And guess what, guys? Canadians don't like that. Okay? Canadians want you to stay where you are, and that's it. So when I told my high school principal that I was going to transfer high school, she got very upset, and h..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1476.46, "time_label": "23:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So again, they know all this, okay? They know I'm an average student, and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious. Okay? And that's why Yale let me in, because it's clear from this information that I had dissociati..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1476.88, "end": 1530.79, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I would need to go make $2 million. If I made $10 million, I would see people around me who had $100 million. I wouldn't be happy. And I would be like, I need to go make $1 billion, okay? So an insecure person sees the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1530.79, "end": 1584.94, "time_label": "25:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I said, I don't care. I'm going to get my good grades, and I'm going to get into the Ivy League. I don't need you guys, okay? So they saw the desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1585.59, "end": 1638.27, "time_label": "26:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. Okay. So you're like, okay, well, this is fine, but... And what's wrong with the system, okay? Why would this be a bad thing? It works. Why would this be a bad thing? Well, the problem with this is... Because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "A student asks why Harvard and Princeton remain famous if the system is unreasonable and unequal for good students.", "speaker_attribution": "student", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1641.59, "end": 1663.01, "time_label": "27:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So let's say if Harvard and Princeton are these college students, then why they're still so famous, because the system is just unreasonable and unequal for the students who have good grades." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang answers with portfolio diversification: most admits are safe rich legacies or athletes, while a tiny share are risky marginal bets like him.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering a student question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1664.89, "end": 1718.34, "time_label": "27:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. All right. That's a really good question, okay? So why are Harvard students, Yale students, Princeton students so famous? Okay. The reason why is when you do investment, you don't do all risky investments, okay? Y..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang says Yale is the Hunger Games: after admission, students face relentless classroom, club, scholarship, and status competition, which creates insecurity and then reproduces itself backward through high school and parenting. He says the model has conquered the world.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? And it's possible, on an essay, you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1781.66, "end": 1836.34, "time_label": "29:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Have you read the book, The Hunger Games? It is a relentless competition. Because once you're in Yale, you're still competing. Okay? But now you're competing against the most competitive people in the world, okay? So ma..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1837.52, "end": 1894.51, "time_label": "30:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? But you're also competing for graduate school, for law school, for medical school, for scholarships like the Rhodes Scholarship, okay? So Yale, it sounds nice, but once you get in there, from the first day, it's a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1894.51, "end": 1951.69, "time_label": "31:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? They're always looking to achieve. And that's what Yale wants. That's what Harvard wants, because these are the people who will be most successful in life, okay? They're not happy with $1 million. They want $1 bil..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1951.87, "end": 2021.05, "time_label": "32:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But the person will probably end up as a teacher, okay? Now you can also say to your child, I don't have time for you, but if you win the swimming competition, or you place first on your math test, or if the teacher say..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2021.55, "end": 2041.25, "time_label": "33:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So that's how the system is set up. And guess what, guys? Is it different in China? Not really, okay? All right? So the concept of meritocracy has conquered the world. It started in America. It actually started at Harva..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "A student asks whether Jiang would still choose Yale if he had a second chance, given the negative emotions it created.", "speaker_attribution": "student", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2042.83, "end": 2050.33, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as you say, Yale gives you so many negative emotions, so will you still go there if you got a second chance?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says probably yes, because the system gives poor people few options for moving ahead, but he would not send his own children into the Ivy League.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering a student question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2051.46, "end": 2101.56, "time_label": "34:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So that's a really good question. Would I go there if I had a second chance? And the answer is probably, okay? And the reason why is the system is set up that you don't really have a choice, right? If you want to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang restarts through slides: German universities once led science, America rose through research universities and German scientists after World War II, college attendance expanded, but inequality, debt, depression, and elite control rose anyway. He identifies James B. Conant and Henry/Harry Chauncey as architects of modern meritocracy.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2101.78, "end": 2166.04, "time_label": "35:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The last thing I would do is have them in such a competitive, traumatic environment as the Ivy League. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. Any more questions? So thank you for your question. Any more..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2234.22, "end": 2305.68, "time_label": "37:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is one of the most unequal societies in the world, even though over a third of its young people go and graduate from college. Okay? This is a graph of social mobility. Okay? So the graph, the top, this number shows you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "time_label": "38:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He argues the system worked for Harvard: admissions became brutally selective, the endowment and alumni wealth exploded, and Harvard/Ivy graduates became massively overrepresented across American elite institutions while underestimating their own dominance.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2435.84, "end": 2507.54, "time_label": "40:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, in the year 1940, 90 % of applicants to Harvard got accepted. Now, it's gone way down to 5%. Okay? Stanford is even lower. Okay? So, now it's so hard to get into Harvard. At the same time, look at the cash of..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2507.78, "end": 2575.645, "time_label": "41:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you have MIT, Stanford, Pennsylvania, Columbia, Yale, Cornell, Princeton. Guess what, guys? Ivy League plus MIT. Okay? Okay. $30 million. Still, Harvard is number one. Okay? All right? So their graduates are t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2647.96, "time_label": "42:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors. But they're everywhere. Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires, New York Times bestselling authors, Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges, senators. Okay? They're eve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang moves from elite university dominance to clubs and secret societies, especially Skull and Bones, then frames the 2008 crisis and Barack Obama’s promise of hope and change as a revolt against a rigged Ivy-controlled economy.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2714.62, "time_label": "44:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We're just average people. There's no way Harvard controls America. All right? Now, as I mentioned at Harvard, just going to Harvard is not enough. You have to join the elite social clubs, the social secret societies. S..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2715.32, "end": 2788.195, "time_label": "45:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're both Yale Skull and Bones. Okay? So it's a rigged game. Barack Obama, okay? Barack Obama, Columbia, went to Harvard Law School, but he promised hope and change. He told people in 2008 that the game is rigged aga..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He argues Obama’s Wall Street rescue protected elite friends while invoking moral hazard against ordinary homeowners, creating anger that helped produce Trump; he then folds Obama and JD Vance into a class of adaptable, soulless political puppets.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "time_label": "46:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2959.23, "time_label": "48:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy the system. Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump. Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama. So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2959.93, "end": 3018.62, "time_label": "49:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump. Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump. Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama. It's a lot of people in the American political class. They're just soulless robots. Okay? This m..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He presents Johnny Kim as the ideal Ivy League graduate: Navy SEAL, Harvard doctor, astronaut, and trauma-driven achiever whose dissociation converts pain into achievement but leaves him without an independent soul.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 3020.77, "end": 3079.64, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All they know is a chief. Okay? So another example of this, this man's name is Johnny Kim. Okay? And he'll probably run for president of the United States one day or at least be a U.S. Senator. Why do I mention him? Gue..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0060" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang summarizes the damage of meritocracy: mental illness, lost mobility, 1% wealth concentration, political division, corruption, identity destruction, mismanagement, and a soulless elite. He then opens the floor for questions.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 3141.52, "end": 3199.56, "time_label": "52:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And if you don't succeed, your parents will come and complain. Okay? Traumatized children. Okay? Okay? If you look at the rate of mental illness in China, in America, it's just insane. Death of American dream and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3199.62, "end": 3204.03, "time_label": "53:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3205.25, "end": 3205.73, "time_label": "53:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3206.79, "end": 3231.98, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. Questions, guys. I know this was a lot to take in, but do you have any questions? You're all depressed and sad and shocked. Yep. We have a question. Thank you." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "A student asks whether there is a way to get rid of the bad impacts and develop outside the system.", "speaker_attribution": "student", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3233.6, "end": 3249.26, "time_label": "53:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Is there a way to get rid of all those bad things? All the bad impacts of this? I mean, is there some suggestions for us to help us better develop ourselves, not just using this system?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says the structural solution is to destroy or publicize the Ivy League, but since that will not happen, individuals should recognize the system as evil, focus on real learning, embrace failure, reflection, resilience, and unstructured time.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering a student question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang warns poor or non-powerful students that the Ivy League can make them arrogant, utilitarian, narrow, anti-failure, and unable to build real skills. He uses his own post-Yale depression and basement years as evidence that he had to relearn openness, failure, resilience, and learning.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 3461.55, "end": 3513.534, "time_label": "57:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a really bad system, because if you're like me, okay, you're just a normal person, your family's not rich or powerful, and you go to Yale and Harvard, it actually makes you fail in life, okay? Let me explain why..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 3513.534, "end": 3574.88, "time_label": "58:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a great system if you come from a rich family, because this system trains you to go into power. But if you're just like me, and you need to work hard and be talented, and be committed to your passion in order to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 3640.99, "end": 3650.11, "time_label": "1:00:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You don't need Harvard, Yale, and Princeton, all right? All right, any more questions, guys? Yep?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "A student asks whether one can be open-minded, get good grades, and become rich at the same time.", "speaker_attribution": "student", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3662.29, "time_label": "1:00:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, can we do both, like open -minded and get the grades and being rich? Okay. Is it a possible thing?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang begins with two modes, altruistic and utilitarian, then corrects a student’s objection about psychology by saying the model is useful rather than absolute. He argues altruistic connection produces creativity and love while utilitarian reward focus is mutually exclusive with it.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering a student question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "time_label": "1:01:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "A student challenges Jiang by saying he previously called psychology brainwashing.", "speaker_attribution": "student", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "time_label": "1:01:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang concludes that Harvard asks applicants to perform impossible contradictions: die for passion, die to become a billionaire, and die loyal to Harvard. He says this selects actor-like, dissociated people who can pretend they are not utilitarian, then uses Obama as the model of a soulless actor who sells hope and change without standing for it.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang classroom lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "speaker_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "note": "A brief student interjection about household profiles appears inside the lecture flow and Jiang immediately affirms it; it is not framed as a public episode question.", "suggested_speaker": "student interjection plus Jiang response", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "note": "Single-word UNKNOWN segment is likely filler or diarization noise, not a separate substantive speaker turn.", "suggested_speaker": "unclear filler", "confidence": "low", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1158.72, "end": 1159.16, "time_label": "19:18", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "note": "Single-word UNKNOWN “Okay?” is likely filler or diarization noise, not a substantive speaker.", "suggested_speaker": "unclear filler", "confidence": "low", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3205.25, "end": 3205.73, "time_label": "53:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "claims": [ { "claim": "Meritocracy appears fair because it rewards talent, ability, and hard work, but Jiang frames it as one of the forces destroying American society.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "meritocracy", "american-society" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 65.02, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good afternoon class. So this will be our last class before the break. We have a three -week break coming up. I hope that during these three weeks you have a chance to reflect on what we've learned because when we..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "American admissions is uniquely complicated because Harvard turned selection away from exams alone and toward a power-preserving system of essays, recommendations, activities, and moral self-presentation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "admissions", "harvard", "power" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 67.13, "end": 134.11, "time_label": "1:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to explain to you why America has the world's most complicated admissions system. So in China, when you apply to university, you take the gaokao, you take an examination,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The Ivy League begins in Jiang’s account as Protestant literacy infrastructure, then mutates into rich social clubs once America becomes wealthier and less religious.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "ivy-league", "religion", "elite-cohesion" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 134.11, "end": 203.54, "time_label": "2:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this time in history in England there's a major conflict between religious belief and the king okay the king is head of the Anglican Church which the official Church of England and there's no difference between the Angl..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 203.54, "end": 280.78, "time_label": "3:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "place called America it's far away go away there guys and leave me alone okay so the dissenters go as pilgrims to America to build their own theocracy what they believe to be the New Jerusalem or paradise on earth heave..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 280.78, "end": 344.94, "time_label": "4:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Bible so they needed places to study the Bible and so they founded Harvard and then Yale and then Princeton but over time as America became more wealthy it became also less religious and so the Ivy League became social..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "State schools and research universities were the healthier American system: trades and science moved poor and smart people into useful work, while the Ivy League risked becoming irrelevant.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "state-schools", "research-universities", "ivy-league" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 344.94, "end": 419.47, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "so it started state schools okay state schools what we call A &M okay you may have heard the term Texas A &M okay it means Texas agricultural these schools were built to train farmers engineers and soldiers okay trades..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 419.47, "end": 477.32, "time_label": "6:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade and then you go and get and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Holistic admissions and character assessment were built as discretionary screens that could preserve alumni power and exclude disfavored groups while appearing morally selective.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "holistic-admissions", "character", "exclusion" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Harvard is interested less in academics than in institutional power, so “best” means most likely to succeed publicly rather than smartest.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "harvard", "power", "success" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "time_label": "11:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "time_label": "11:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important fo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "In Jiang’s admissions model, a multigenerational Harvard legacy or world-famous athlete beats the math genius because fame, presidency, and corporate power build the university brand.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "legacy-admissions", "brand", "elite-selection" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "time_label": "11:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important fo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 788.09, "end": 850.01, "time_label": "13:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Basketball player in America, okay? Okay. The third is the best student. And the fourth is the best math genius in the world. And the fourth is three generations of Harvard, okay? So your father, your grandfather, your..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "time_label": "14:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Elite admissions officers may operate by this power logic, but most non-elite schools are mainly trying to enroll paying students.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "elite-schools", "admissions" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 900.27, "end": 906.45, "time_label": "15:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Like, does all the admission officers in American college doing this intentionally?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 906.95, "end": 927.81, "time_label": "15:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, that's a really good question, okay? So, if you're the Ivy League, you do this, because everyone wants to go to the Ivy League. But if you're an average school, you're actually just trying to recruit students, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Harvard and Yale operate like venture capital firms: they prefer risky applicants with possible world-changing upside over solid applicants with predictable modest success.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "venture-capital", "admissions", "risk" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The admissions prize is not the professor or reliable professional but the crazy person who might change the world and make the university famous.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "brand", "risk", "success" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang’s surface Yale application looked decent but not stellar: ordinary school context, non-top rank, modest SAT by elite standards, minor activities, a generic essay, and recommendations shadowed by perceived ambition.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "jiang-biography", "yale", "application" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1159.44, "end": 1222.42, "time_label": "19:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. So, my application. All right. So, I went to a public high school. It was good, but it's not a private high school. You get a better education at a private high school. Plus, it's in Canada. Okay? Which is li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. 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Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from application that made them interested in me. The first is that I was poor, so I couldn't even afford the application fee. I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1343.21, "end": 1404.675, "time_label": "22:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And guess what, guys? Canadians don't like that. Okay? Canadians want you to stay where you are, and that's it. So when I told my high school principal that I was going to transfer high school, she got very upset, and h..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1476.46, "time_label": "23:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So again, they know all this, okay? They know I'm an average student, and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious. Okay? 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All right. That's a really good question, okay? So why are Harvard students, Yale students, Princeton students so famous? Okay. The reason why is when you do investment, you don't do all risky investments, okay? Y..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Yale functions as the Hunger Games: a zero-sum competition among the most competitive people in the world, extending through classes, clubs, secret societies, graduate school, and scholarships.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "yale", "competition", "hunger-games" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? 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They want $1 bil..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Meritocratic parenting neglects children while making love conditional on performance, producing trauma that can drive endless achievement.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "parenting", "conditional-love", "trauma" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1894.51, "end": 1951.69, "time_label": "31:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? They're always looking to achieve. And that's what Yale wants. That's what Harvard wants, because these are the people who will be most successful in life, okay? They're not happy with $1 million. 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It actually started at Harva..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says he would probably go to Yale again because poor people trying to move ahead have few alternatives, but he refuses to send his children into that traumatic environment.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "yale", "poor-students", "children" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2042.83, "end": 2050.33, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as you say, Yale gives you so many negative emotions, so will you still go there if you got a second chance?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2051.46, "end": 2101.56, "time_label": "34:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So that's a really good question. Would I go there if I had a second chance? And the answer is probably, okay? And the reason why is the system is set up that you don't really have a choice, right? If you want to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "American universities rose from nonexistence in the global research hierarchy to dominance through research investment and postwar importation of German scientific talent.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "research-universities", "world-war-ii", "science" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2101.78, "end": 2166.04, "time_label": "35:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The last thing I would do is have them in such a competitive, traumatic environment as the Ivy League. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. Any more questions? So thank you for your question. Any more..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The expansion of college attendance did not make America equal; Jiang links it to rising inequality, falling social mobility, student debt, and youth depression.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "inequality", "social-mobility", "student-debt", "depression" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2234.22, "end": 2305.68, "time_label": "37:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is one of the most unequal societies in the world, even though over a third of its young people go and graduate from college. Okay? This is a graph of social mobility. Okay? So the graph, the top, this number shows you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "time_label": "38:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt c..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "James B. Conant and Henry/Harry Chauncey created the modern meritocracy through Harvard scholarship selection and standardized testing institutions such as ETS.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "conant", "chauncey", "ets", "sat" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "time_label": "38:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Modern meritocracy succeeded for Harvard by making admission scarce, growing its endowment, producing billionaires, and placing Harvard/Ivy graduates throughout the American elite.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "harvard", "billionaires", "elite-overrepresentation" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2435.84, "end": 2507.54, "time_label": "40:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, in the year 1940, 90 % of applicants to Harvard got accepted. Now, it's gone way down to 5%. Okay? Stanford is even lower. Okay? So, now it's so hard to get into Harvard. At the same time, look at the cash of..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2507.78, "end": 2575.645, "time_label": "41:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you have MIT, Stanford, Pennsylvania, Columbia, Yale, Cornell, Princeton. Guess what, guys? Ivy League plus MIT. Okay? Okay. $30 million. Still, Harvard is number one. Okay? All right? So their graduates are t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2647.96, "time_label": "42:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors. But they're everywhere. Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires, New York Times bestselling authors, Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges, senators. Okay? They're eve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Harvard alone is not enough; elite reproduction also runs through senior clubs and secret societies such as Porcellian, Ivy Club, and Skull and Bones.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "secret-societies", "elite-clubs", "skull-and-bones" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2714.62, "time_label": "44:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We're just average people. There's no way Harvard controls America. All right? Now, as I mentioned at Harvard, just going to Harvard is not enough. You have to join the elite social clubs, the social secret societies. S..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang frames the 2008 crisis as a rigged Ivy League and Wall Street system that Obama promised to change but ultimately protected through elite economic appointments.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "obama", "wall-street", "financial-crisis" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2715.32, "end": 2788.195, "time_label": "45:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're both Yale Skull and Bones. Okay? So it's a rigged game. Barack Obama, okay? Barack Obama, Columbia, went to Harvard Law School, but he promised hope and change. He told people in 2008 that the game is rigged aga..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "time_label": "46:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The bailout logic applied moral hazard asymmetrically: banks received rescue money while ordinary homeowners were denied help because they supposedly needed consequences.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "moral-hazard", "bailouts", "inequality" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "time_label": "46:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang claims Trump’s rise follows from anger at Obama’s failed hope-and-change promise and even from Obama humiliating Trump at the 2011 White House Correspondents Dinner.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "obama", "political-backlash" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2959.23, "time_label": "48:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy the system. Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump. Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama. So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Obama, JD Vance, and Johnny Kim are used as examples of elite success that Jiang reads as trauma-driven, highly adaptable, and soulless rather than principled.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "soulless-elite", "trauma", "politics" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2959.93, "end": 3018.62, "time_label": "49:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump. Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump. Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama. It's a lot of people in the American political class. They're just soulless robots. Okay? This m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 3020.77, "end": 3079.64, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All they know is a chief. Okay? So another example of this, this man's name is Johnny Kim. Okay? And he'll probably run for president of the United States one day or at least be a U.S. Senator. Why do I mention him? Gue..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang attributes a broad crisis bundle to meritocracy: mental illness, social immobility, 1% wealth concentration, left-right division, corruption, identity breakdown, elite mismanagement, and soulless leadership.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "meritocracy", "crisis", "america" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 3141.52, "end": 3199.56, "time_label": "52:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And if you don't succeed, your parents will come and complain. Okay? Traumatized children. Okay? Okay? If you look at the rate of mental illness in China, in America, it's just insane. Death of American dream and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3199.62, "end": 3204.03, "time_label": "53:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The best structural solution would be to destroy the Ivy League or make it public so its private institutional power and secrecy are broken.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "ivy-league", "public-control", "reform" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3233.6, "end": 3249.26, "time_label": "53:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Is there a way to get rid of all those bad things? All the bad impacts of this? I mean, is there some suggestions for us to help us better develop ourselves, not just using this system?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Because the Ivy League is too powerful to be destroyed soon, the individual response is to see the system clearly and choose real learning over indoctrinated success-seeking.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "learning", "self-development", "ivy-league" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Real success before meritocracy depended on open-mindedness, failure, reflection, resilience, learning, and time for oneself; grade competition destroys each of those conditions.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "failure", "reflection", "resilience", "learning" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "For poor students without family power, Yale or Harvard can be destructive because the system trains arrogance, utilitarian calculation, narrowness, fear of failure, and inability to learn deeply.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "poor-students", "ivy-league", "failure" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 3461.55, "end": 3513.534, "time_label": "57:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a really bad system, because if you're like me, okay, you're just a normal person, your family's not rich or powerful, and you go to Yale and Harvard, it actually makes you fail in life, okay? Let me explain why..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 3513.534, "end": 3574.88, "time_label": "58:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a great system if you come from a rich family, because this system trains you to go into power. But if you're just like me, and you need to work hard and be talented, and be committed to your passion in order to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang treats his own post-Yale collapse, depression, suicidal thoughts, video-game withdrawal, and later teaching as evidence that Yale traumatized him and that he had to relearn real learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "jiang-biography", "yale", "trauma" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "His success formula is open-mindedness, acceptance of failure, resilience, and commitment to learning, not Harvard, Yale, or Princeton.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "success", "learning", "resilience" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 3640.99, "end": 3650.11, "time_label": "1:00:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You don't need Harvard, Yale, and Princeton, all right? All right, any more questions, guys? Yep?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Altruistic and utilitarian modes are mutually exclusive in Jiang’s model: altruistic connection supports creativity, passion, and love, while utilitarian reward-focus pursues grades and cannot simultaneously help the world.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "altruistic-mode", "utilitarian-mode", "creativity" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3662.29, "time_label": "1:00:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, can we do both, like open -minded and get the grades and being rich? Okay. Is it a possible thing?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "time_label": "1:01:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Harvard wants applicants to perform mutually incompatible identities: selfless passion, billionaire ambition, and absolute loyalty to Harvard.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "harvard", "application-performance", "identity" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Only dissociated, actor-like people can convincingly perform the non-utilitarian passion that Harvard demands from people who are applying for utilitarian reasons.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "dissociation", "acting", "admissions" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Obama is Jiang’s closing example of the elite actor: promising hope and change, then dropping the promise once in power and returning to it only when electorally useful.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "obama", "soulless-elite", "performance" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "signature_moments": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "moment": "The lecture opens by naming the polite school ideal and immediately turning it into a social-destruction thesis.", "source_phrase": "destroying American society", "why_it_matters": "This is the episode’s governing reversal: meritocracy is not just unfair, it is corrosive.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 65.02, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good afternoon class. So this will be our last class before the break. We have a three -week break coming up. I hope that during these three weeks you have a chance to reflect on what we've learned because when we..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "moment": "Harvard begins as a Bible-reading machine for a religious colony, not as a neutral excellence factory.", "source_phrase": "education literacy learning it is the divine imperative", "why_it_matters": "It strips modern prestige back to a theological origin story.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 203.54, "end": 280.78, "time_label": "3:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "place called America it's far away go away there guys and leave me alone okay so the dissenters go as pilgrims to America to build their own theocracy what they believe to be the New Jerusalem or paradise on earth heave..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "moment": "Harvard faces extinction by smarter research universities, so the SAT becomes a way to import brilliance into the old power club.", "source_phrase": "the origin of the SAT", "why_it_matters": "It recasts standardized testing as an institutional survival technology.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 419.47, "end": 477.32, "time_label": "6:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade and then you go and get and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "moment": "“Character” becomes the velvet glove around exclusion.", "source_phrase": "character", "why_it_matters": "It gives the admissions system its moral disguise.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "moment": "Harvard is described not as a school but as an institution of power.", "source_phrase": "not interested in academics, it’s interested in power", "why_it_matters": "This phrase unlocks the whole admissions argument.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "time_label": "11:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "moment": "The math genius loses because a math professor does not make Harvard famous enough.", "source_phrase": "We don’t want professors", "why_it_matters": "It makes the admissions calculus brutally concrete.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 788.09, "end": 850.01, "time_label": "13:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Basketball player in America, okay? Okay. The third is the best student. And the fourth is the best math genius in the world. And the fourth is three generations of Harvard, okay? So your father, your grandfather, your..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "time_label": "14:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "moment": "Harvard is first and foremost a venture capital firm.", "source_phrase": "first and foremost, a venture capital firm", "why_it_matters": "It converts admissions from education into portfolio theory.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "moment": "Harvard would rather ten students become famous and ninety-nine fail than one thousand succeed slightly.", "source_phrase": "10 people succeed and 99 fail", "why_it_matters": "This is the lecture’s most compact description of winner-take-all institutional morality.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "moment": "In Canada, “ambitious” becomes a dirty word.", "source_phrase": "Ambitious is a dirty word in Canada", "why_it_matters": "It shows how Jiang’s personality could read as social violation before it read as elite potential.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "moment": "Yale reads desperation, insecurity, hunger, and immorality as possible world-changing upside.", "source_phrase": "desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality", "why_it_matters": "It is the psychological core of the admissions model.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1476.46, "time_label": "23:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So again, they know all this, okay? They know I'm an average student, and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious. Okay? And that's why Yale let me in, because it's clear from this information that I had dissociati..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1476.88, "end": 1530.79, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I would need to go make $2 million. If I made $10 million, I would see people around me who had $100 million. I wouldn't be happy. And I would be like, I need to go make $1 billion, okay? So an insecure person sees the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1530.79, "end": 1584.94, "time_label": "25:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I said, I don't care. I'm going to get my good grades, and I'm going to get into the Ivy League. I don't need you guys, okay? So they saw the desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "moment": "The system exists to find trauma and therefore spreads trauma.", "source_phrase": "find people with trauma... traumatizing the world", "why_it_matters": "This turns meritocracy from selector into producer.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1585.59, "end": 1638.27, "time_label": "26:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. Okay. So you're like, okay, well, this is fine, but... And what's wrong with the system, okay? Why would this be a bad thing? It works. Why would this be a bad thing? Well, the problem with this is... Because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "moment": "The marginal poor admit is a crapshoot risk position in an elite portfolio.", "source_phrase": "1 % of positions available for risk", "why_it_matters": "It prevents the story from treating Jiang as the average Yale student.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1664.89, "end": 1718.34, "time_label": "27:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. All right. That's a really good question, okay? So why are Harvard students, Yale students, Princeton students so famous? Okay. The reason why is when you do investment, you don't do all risky investments, okay? Y..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "moment": "Yale is named as the Hunger Games, not a sanctuary after winning admission.", "source_phrase": "Yale is actually the Hunger Games", "why_it_matters": "It captures the hidden second-stage competition after acceptance.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? And it's possible, on an essay, you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1781.66, "end": 1836.34, "time_label": "29:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Have you read the book, The Hunger Games? It is a relentless competition. Because once you're in Yale, you're still competing. Okay? But now you're competing against the most competitive people in the world, okay? So ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "moment": "The elite student’s worldview becomes “everyone is an enemy.”", "source_phrase": "Everyone’s an enemy", "why_it_matters": "It condenses the moral injury produced by winner-take-all schooling.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1837.52, "end": 1894.51, "time_label": "30:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? But you're also competing for graduate school, for law school, for medical school, for scholarships like the Rhodes Scholarship, okay? So Yale, it sounds nice, but once you get in there, from the first day, it's a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "moment": "Conditional ice cream replaces unconditional love as the parenting engine of meritocracy.", "source_phrase": "if you win... then I’ll take you for ice cream", "why_it_matters": "It makes structural trauma domestic and intimate.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1894.51, "end": 1951.69, "time_label": "31:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? They're always looking to achieve. And that's what Yale wants. That's what Harvard wants, because these are the people who will be most successful in life, okay? They're not happy with $1 million. They want $1 bil..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1951.87, "end": 2021.05, "time_label": "32:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But the person will probably end up as a teacher, okay? Now you can also say to your child, I don't have time for you, but if you win the swimming competition, or you place first on your math test, or if the teacher say..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "moment": "He would probably repeat Yale for himself but not impose it on his children.", "source_phrase": "I do not plan to send my kids to the Ivy League", "why_it_matters": "It gives the critique its practical edge.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2051.46, "end": 2101.56, "time_label": "34:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So that's a really good question. Would I go there if I had a second chance? And the answer is probably, okay? And the reason why is the system is set up that you don't really have a choice, right? If you want to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "moment": "More college does not produce more equality; the graphs move the opposite way.", "source_phrase": "the opposite has happened", "why_it_matters": "It challenges the civic promise attached to mass higher education.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2234.22, "end": 2305.68, "time_label": "37:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is one of the most unequal societies in the world, even though over a third of its young people go and graduate from college. Okay? This is a graph of social mobility. Okay? So the graph, the top, this number shows you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "moment": "The meritocracy has named founders, and both roads lead back to Harvard.", "source_phrase": "the entire system is set up to benefit Harvard", "why_it_matters": "It makes the system historical rather than natural.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "time_label": "38:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "moment": "The elite do not even know they are elite.", "source_phrase": "Harvard and Ivy League don’t even know they dominate America", "why_it_matters": "This gives the dominance claim a psychological twist.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2647.96, "time_label": "42:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors. But they're everywhere. Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires, New York Times bestselling authors, Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges, senators. Okay? They're eve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "moment": "The general election becomes a rigged game because both nominees belong to the same Yale secret society.", "source_phrase": "They’re both Yale Skull and Bones", "why_it_matters": "It makes elite capture vivid through a single matchup.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2714.62, "time_label": "44:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We're just average people. There's no way Harvard controls America. All right? Now, as I mentioned at Harvard, just going to Harvard is not enough. You have to join the elite social clubs, the social secret societies. S..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "moment": "Moral hazard becomes a weapon used against homeowners but not banks.", "source_phrase": "Moral hazard, guys", "why_it_matters": "It shows Jiang’s double-standard critique in its sharpest form.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "moment": "Obama is blamed not just for failing against Trump but for helping create him.", "source_phrase": "Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump", "why_it_matters": "It is the lecture’s political causal shock.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2959.23, "time_label": "48:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy the system. Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump. Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama. So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "moment": "Johnny Kim’s heroic resume is read as trauma converted into achievement.", "source_phrase": "turned the trauma into an energy", "why_it_matters": "It crystallizes the lecture’s psychology of elite overachievement.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 3020.77, "end": 3079.64, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All they know is a chief. Okay? So another example of this, this man's name is Johnny Kim. Okay? And he'll probably run for president of the United States one day or at least be a U.S. Senator. Why do I mention him? Gue..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "moment": "The summary lands as a sarcastic funeral toast to American meritocracy.", "source_phrase": "thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world", "why_it_matters": "It preserves the lecture’s bitter public punchline.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3199.62, "end": 3204.03, "time_label": "53:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "moment": "The real solution is to destroy the Ivy League.", "source_phrase": "destroy the Ivy League", "why_it_matters": "It gives the Q&A a structural answer before the personal advice.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "moment": "Failure is not a blemish but the best teacher; meritocracy removes it and therefore removes reflection.", "source_phrase": "failure is the best teacher", "why_it_matters": "It defines Jiang’s alternative developmental model.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "moment": "Every minute being organized is described as intentional anti-reflection.", "source_phrase": "You don’t even have time to just think for yourself", "why_it_matters": "It links overscheduling to social control.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "moment": "The Ivy League is good for the already rich because it trains them into power, but it can ruin the poor person who needs real skills and passion.", "source_phrase": "great system if you come from a rich family", "why_it_matters": "It makes the critique class-specific instead of generically anti-school.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 3461.55, "end": 3513.534, "time_label": "57:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a really bad system, because if you're like me, okay, you're just a normal person, your family's not rich or powerful, and you go to Yale and Harvard, it actually makes you fail in life, okay? Let me explain why..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 3513.534, "end": 3574.88, "time_label": "58:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a great system if you come from a rich family, because this system trains you to go into power. But if you're just like me, and you need to work hard and be talented, and be committed to your passion in order to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067" ], "moment": "Yale sends Jiang into failure, depression, video games, and his parents’ basement before he can rebuild himself as a teacher.", "source_phrase": "I was traumatized by Yale", "why_it_matters": "It is the most personal proof point in the episode.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "moment": "The student asks for both grades and goodness, and Jiang answers that reward focus and creative altruism cannot occupy the same mode.", "source_phrase": "impossible to both want to have really good grades as well as help the world", "why_it_matters": "It gives the final Q&A its psychological trap.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3662.29, "time_label": "1:00:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, can we do both, like open -minded and get the grades and being rich? Okay. Is it a possible thing?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "time_label": "1:01:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073" ], "moment": "Harvard asks the applicant to die three times: for passion, for billionaire success, and for Harvard itself.", "source_phrase": "I will die for my passion", "why_it_matters": "It makes the admissions essay into a test of impossible self-division.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "moment": "The successful applicant is basically an actor.", "source_phrase": "you’re basically an actor", "why_it_matters": "It is the closing definition of elite meritocratic personality.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "moment": "Obama’s hope-and-change persona becomes the example of a soulless elite performance.", "source_phrase": "sorry, man, I was just joking", "why_it_matters": "It ties the psychological model back to national politics.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "predictions": [], "models": [ { "claim": "American admissions is uniquely complicated because Harvard turned selection away from exams alone and toward a power-preserving system of essays, recommendations, activities, and moral self-presentation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "admissions", "harvard", "power" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 67.13, "end": 134.11, "time_label": "1:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to explain to you why America has the world's most complicated admissions system. 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Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "time_label": "11:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. 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And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important fo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 788.09, "end": 850.01, "time_label": "13:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Basketball player in America, okay? Okay. The third is the best student. And the fourth is the best math genius in the world. And the fourth is three generations of Harvard, okay? So your father, your grandfather, your..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "time_label": "14:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Harvard and Yale operate like venture capital firms: they prefer risky applicants with possible world-changing upside over solid applicants with predictable modest success.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "venture-capital", "admissions", "risk" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Elite schools stay famous because they maintain a diversified portfolio: mostly safe rich legacies and athletes, with a small risk slot for marginal high-upside applicants.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "portfolio", "legacy", "elite-schools" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1641.59, "end": 1663.01, "time_label": "27:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So let's say if Harvard and Princeton are these college students, then why they're still so famous, because the system is just unreasonable and unequal for the students who have good grades." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1664.89, "end": 1718.34, "time_label": "27:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. All right. That's a really good question, okay? So why are Harvard students, Yale students, Princeton students so famous? Okay. The reason why is when you do investment, you don't do all risky investments, okay? Y..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Meritocratic parenting neglects children while making love conditional on performance, producing trauma that can drive endless achievement.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "parenting", "conditional-love", "trauma" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1894.51, "end": 1951.69, "time_label": "31:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? They're always looking to achieve. And that's what Yale wants. That's what Harvard wants, because these are the people who will be most successful in life, okay? They're not happy with $1 million. They want $1 bil..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1951.87, "end": 2021.05, "time_label": "32:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But the person will probably end up as a teacher, okay? Now you can also say to your child, I don't have time for you, but if you win the swimming competition, or you place first on your math test, or if the teacher say..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "James B. Conant and Henry/Harry Chauncey created the modern meritocracy through Harvard scholarship selection and standardized testing institutions such as ETS.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "conant", "chauncey", "ets", "sat" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "time_label": "38:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Harvard alone is not enough; elite reproduction also runs through senior clubs and secret societies such as Porcellian, Ivy Club, and Skull and Bones.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "secret-societies", "elite-clubs", "skull-and-bones" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2714.62, "time_label": "44:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We're just average people. There's no way Harvard controls America. All right? Now, as I mentioned at Harvard, just going to Harvard is not enough. You have to join the elite social clubs, the social secret societies. S..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Real success before meritocracy depended on open-mindedness, failure, reflection, resilience, learning, and time for oneself; grade competition destroys each of those conditions.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "failure", "reflection", "resilience", "learning" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Altruistic and utilitarian modes are mutually exclusive in Jiang’s model: altruistic connection supports creativity, passion, and love, while utilitarian reward-focus pursues grades and cannot simultaneously help the world.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "altruistic-mode", "utilitarian-mode", "creativity" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3654.39, "end": 3662.29, "time_label": "1:00:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, can we do both, like open -minded and get the grades and being rich? Okay. Is it a possible thing?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "time_label": "1:01:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Only dissociated, actor-like people can convincingly perform the non-utilitarian passion that Harvard demands from people who are applying for utilitarian reasons.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "dissociation", "acting", "admissions" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "diagnoses": [ { "claim": "Meritocracy appears fair because it rewards talent, ability, and hard work, but Jiang frames it as one of the forces destroying American society.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "meritocracy", "american-society" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 65.02, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good afternoon class. So this will be our last class before the break. We have a three -week break coming up. I hope that during these three weeks you have a chance to reflect on what we've learned because when we..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "State schools and research universities were the healthier American system: trades and science moved poor and smart people into useful work, while the Ivy League risked becoming irrelevant.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "state-schools", "research-universities", "ivy-league" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 344.94, "end": 419.47, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "so it started state schools okay state schools what we call A &M okay you may have heard the term Texas A &M okay it means Texas agricultural these schools were built to train farmers engineers and soldiers okay trades..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 419.47, "end": 477.32, "time_label": "6:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade and then you go and get and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Holistic admissions and character assessment were built as discretionary screens that could preserve alumni power and exclude disfavored groups while appearing morally selective.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "holistic-admissions", "character", "exclusion" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Elite admissions officers may operate by this power logic, but most non-elite schools are mainly trying to enroll paying students.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "elite-schools", "admissions" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 900.27, "end": 906.45, "time_label": "15:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Like, does all the admission officers in American college doing this intentionally?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 906.95, "end": 927.81, "time_label": "15:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, that's a really good question, okay? So, if you're the Ivy League, you do this, because everyone wants to go to the Ivy League. But if you're an average school, you're actually just trying to recruit students, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The admissions prize is not the professor or reliable professional but the crazy person who might change the world and make the university famous.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "brand", "risk", "success" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Yale admitted Jiang, in his reading, not because the visible application was stellar but because poverty, immigration, school transfer, desperation, insecurity, and transgression signaled high-upside trauma.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "yale", "trauma", "admissions" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1285.27, "end": 1342.91, "time_label": "21:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So how did I get in? Well, because there was some information that they could also derive from application that made them interested in me. The first is that I was poor, so I couldn't even afford the application fee. I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1343.21, "end": 1404.675, "time_label": "22:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And guess what, guys? Canadians don't like that. Okay? Canadians want you to stay where you are, and that's it. So when I told my high school principal that I was going to transfer high school, she got very upset, and h..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1476.46, "time_label": "23:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So again, they know all this, okay? They know I'm an average student, and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious. Okay? And that's why Yale let me in, because it's clear from this information that I had dissociati..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1476.88, "end": 1530.79, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I would need to go make $2 million. If I made $10 million, I would see people around me who had $100 million. I wouldn't be happy. And I would be like, I need to go make $1 billion, okay? So an insecure person sees the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1530.79, "end": 1584.94, "time_label": "25:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I said, I don't care. I'm going to get my good grades, and I'm going to get into the Ivy League. I don't need you guys, okay? So they saw the desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The meritocracy seeks traumatized people and, because elite schools are powerful, traumatizes the world in order to find and produce them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "meritocracy", "trauma", "world" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1585.59, "end": 1638.27, "time_label": "26:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right. Okay. So you're like, okay, well, this is fine, but... And what's wrong with the system, okay? Why would this be a bad thing? It works. Why would this be a bad thing? Well, the problem with this is... Because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Yale functions as the Hunger Games: a zero-sum competition among the most competitive people in the world, extending through classes, clubs, secret societies, graduate school, and scholarships.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "yale", "competition", "hunger-games" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? 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They want $1 bil..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The meritocracy has conquered the world from Harvard outward, including China, which is why Jiang says the world is so distorted.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "global-meritocracy", "china", "harvard" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2021.55, "end": 2041.25, "time_label": "33:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So that's how the system is set up. And guess what, guys? Is it different in China? Not really, okay? All right? So the concept of meritocracy has conquered the world. It started in America. It actually started at Harva..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The expansion of college attendance did not make America equal; Jiang links it to rising inequality, falling social mobility, student debt, and youth depression.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "inequality", "social-mobility", "student-debt", "depression" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2234.22, "end": 2305.68, "time_label": "37:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is one of the most unequal societies in the world, even though over a third of its young people go and graduate from college. Okay? This is a graph of social mobility. Okay? So the graph, the top, this number shows you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2307.02, "end": 2378.54, "time_label": "38:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you can see how student debt, student loans, has gone way up. So in America, student loans, student debt, is the only type of debt that you can never, ever get rid of. You can't declare bankruptcy. This debt c..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang frames the 2008 crisis as a rigged Ivy League and Wall Street system that Obama promised to change but ultimately protected through elite economic appointments.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "obama", "wall-street", "financial-crisis" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2715.32, "end": 2788.195, "time_label": "45:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're both Yale Skull and Bones. Okay? So it's a rigged game. Barack Obama, okay? Barack Obama, Columbia, went to Harvard Law School, but he promised hope and change. He told people in 2008 that the game is rigged aga..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "time_label": "46:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The bailout logic applied moral hazard asymmetrically: banks received rescue money while ordinary homeowners were denied help because they supposedly needed consequences.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "moral-hazard", "bailouts", "inequality" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "time_label": "46:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang claims Trump’s rise follows from anger at Obama’s failed hope-and-change promise and even from Obama humiliating Trump at the 2011 White House Correspondents Dinner.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "obama", "political-backlash" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2959.23, "time_label": "48:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy the system. Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump. Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama. So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Obama, JD Vance, and Johnny Kim are used as examples of elite success that Jiang reads as trauma-driven, highly adaptable, and soulless rather than principled.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "soulless-elite", "trauma", "politics" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2959.93, "end": 3018.62, "time_label": "49:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump. Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump. Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama. It's a lot of people in the American political class. They're just soulless robots. Okay? This m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 3020.77, "end": 3079.64, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All they know is a chief. Okay? So another example of this, this man's name is Johnny Kim. Okay? And he'll probably run for president of the United States one day or at least be a U.S. Senator. Why do I mention him? Gue..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang attributes a broad crisis bundle to meritocracy: mental illness, social immobility, 1% wealth concentration, left-right division, corruption, identity breakdown, elite mismanagement, and soulless leadership.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "meritocracy", "crisis", "america" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 3141.52, "end": 3199.56, "time_label": "52:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And if you don't succeed, your parents will come and complain. Okay? Traumatized children. Okay? Okay? If you look at the rate of mental illness in China, in America, it's just insane. Death of American dream and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3199.62, "end": 3204.03, "time_label": "53:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So thank you, American meritocracy, for destroying the world." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "For poor students without family power, Yale or Harvard can be destructive because the system trains arrogance, utilitarian calculation, narrowness, fear of failure, and inability to learn deeply.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "poor-students", "ivy-league", "failure" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 3461.55, "end": 3513.534, "time_label": "57:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a really bad system, because if you're like me, okay, you're just a normal person, your family's not rich or powerful, and you go to Yale and Harvard, it actually makes you fail in life, okay? Let me explain why..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 3513.534, "end": 3574.88, "time_label": "58:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a great system if you come from a rich family, because this system trains you to go into power. But if you're just like me, and you need to work hard and be talented, and be committed to your passion in order to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Harvard wants applicants to perform mutually incompatible identities: selfless passion, billionaire ambition, and absolute loyalty to Harvard.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "harvard", "application-performance", "identity" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. 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You get a better education at a private high school. Plus, it's in Canada. Okay? Which is li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines elite-admissions dissociative potential as desperation plus insecurity plus willingness to break rules in order to succeed.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "dissociation", "desperation", "transgression" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1476.46, "time_label": "23:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So again, they know all this, okay? They know I'm an average student, and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious. Okay? And that's why Yale let me in, because it's clear from this information that I had dissociati..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1476.88, "end": 1530.79, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I would need to go make $2 million. If I made $10 million, I would see people around me who had $100 million. I wouldn't be happy. And I would be like, I need to go make $1 billion, okay? So an insecure person sees the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1530.79, "end": 1584.94, "time_label": "25:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I said, I don't care. I'm going to get my good grades, and I'm going to get into the Ivy League. I don't need you guys, okay? So they saw the desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says he would probably go to Yale again because poor people trying to move ahead have few alternatives, but he refuses to send his children into that traumatic environment.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "yale", "poor-students", "children" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2042.83, "end": 2050.33, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as you say, Yale gives you so many negative emotions, so will you still go there if you got a second chance?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2051.46, "end": 2101.56, "time_label": "34:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So that's a really good question. Would I go there if I had a second chance? And the answer is probably, okay? And the reason why is the system is set up that you don't really have a choice, right? If you want to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "American universities rose from nonexistence in the global research hierarchy to dominance through research investment and postwar importation of German scientific talent.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "research-universities", "world-war-ii", "science" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2101.78, "end": 2166.04, "time_label": "35:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The last thing I would do is have them in such a competitive, traumatic environment as the Ivy League. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. Any more questions? So thank you for your question. Any more..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Modern meritocracy succeeded for Harvard by making admission scarce, growing its endowment, producing billionaires, and placing Harvard/Ivy graduates throughout the American elite.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "harvard", "billionaires", "elite-overrepresentation" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2435.84, "end": 2507.54, "time_label": "40:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, in the year 1940, 90 % of applicants to Harvard got accepted. Now, it's gone way down to 5%. Okay? Stanford is even lower. Okay? So, now it's so hard to get into Harvard. At the same time, look at the cash of..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2507.78, "end": 2575.645, "time_label": "41:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you have MIT, Stanford, Pennsylvania, Columbia, Yale, Cornell, Princeton. Guess what, guys? Ivy League plus MIT. Okay? Okay. $30 million. Still, Harvard is number one. Okay? All right? So their graduates are t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2647.96, "time_label": "42:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors. But they're everywhere. Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires, New York Times bestselling authors, Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges, senators. Okay? They're eve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The best structural solution would be to destroy the Ivy League or make it public so its private institutional power and secrecy are broken.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "ivy-league", "public-control", "reform" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3233.6, "end": 3249.26, "time_label": "53:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Is there a way to get rid of all those bad things? All the bad impacts of this? I mean, is there some suggestions for us to help us better develop ourselves, not just using this system?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Because the Ivy League is too powerful to be destroyed soon, the individual response is to see the system clearly and choose real learning over indoctrinated success-seeking.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "learning", "self-development", "ivy-league" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang treats his own post-Yale collapse, depression, suicidal thoughts, video-game withdrawal, and later teaching as evidence that Yale traumatized him and that he had to relearn real learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "jiang-biography", "yale", "trauma" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "His success formula is open-mindedness, acceptance of failure, resilience, and commitment to learning, not Harvard, Yale, or Princeton.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "temporal_scope": "Lecture claim on 2025-09-12.", "topic_tags": [ "success", "learning", "resilience" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 3640.99, "end": 3650.11, "time_label": "1:00:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You don't need Harvard, Yale, and Princeton, all right? All right, any more questions, guys? Yep?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "glossary_terms": [ { "term": "actor", "usages": [ "Jiang’s final label for the elite applicant or politician who performs incompatible identities for institutional reward." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ] }, { "term": "altruistic mode", "usages": [ "Not yet named here, but prepared as the non-reward mode of connection, reflection, and creativity.", "A connection-oriented mode associated with family, friendship, creativity, passion, and love." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "time_label": "1:01:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ] }, { "term": "ambitious", "usages": [ "In Jiang’s Canadian context, a negative label meaning pushy, rule-breaking, or too aggressive." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1222.5, "end": 1283.87, "time_label": "20:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I organized it. Okay? So, these three activities, they're fine, but it doesn't really demonstrate leadership potential. Right? You're not like head of student government or you're not head of model United Nations. All r..." } ] }, { "term": "brand name recognition", "usages": [ "The institutional payoff Harvard receives when a graduate becomes publicly famous or powerful." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." } ] }, { "term": "conditional parenting", "usages": [ "A system that withholds attention unless the child performs, creating achievement trauma." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1894.51, "end": 1951.69, "time_label": "31:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? They're always looking to achieve. And that's what Yale wants. That's what Harvard wants, because these are the people who will be most successful in life, okay? They're not happy with $1 million. They want $1 bil..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1951.87, "end": 2021.05, "time_label": "32:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But the person will probably end up as a teacher, okay? Now you can also say to your child, I don't have time for you, but if you win the swimming competition, or you place first on your math test, or if the teacher say..." } ] }, { "term": "crapshoot", "usages": [ "His phrase for the discretionary, intuition-driven risk allocation used for unusual marginal admits." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1664.89, "end": 1718.34, "time_label": "27:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. All right. That's a really good question, okay? So why are Harvard students, Yale students, Princeton students so famous? Okay. The reason why is when you do investment, you don't do all risky investments, okay? Y..." } ] }, { "term": "discretion", "usages": [ "Admissions freedom to choose applicants for opaque institutional reasons." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "time_label": "11:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." } ] }, { "term": "dissociative personality disorder", "usages": [ "Jiang’s recurring label for a trauma-shaped drive that can produce desperation, insecurity, rule-breaking, and extreme achievement." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1404.675, "end": 1476.46, "time_label": "23:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So again, they know all this, okay? They know I'm an average student, and they know that I'm pushy and ambitious. Okay? And that's why Yale let me in, because it's clear from this information that I had dissociati..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1476.88, "end": 1530.79, "time_label": "24:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I would need to go make $2 million. If I made $10 million, I would see people around me who had $100 million. I wouldn't be happy. And I would be like, I need to go make $1 billion, okay? So an insecure person sees the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1530.79, "end": 1584.94, "time_label": "25:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I said, I don't care. I'm going to get my good grades, and I'm going to get into the Ivy League. I don't need you guys, okay? So they saw the desperation, they saw the insecurity, they saw the hunger and the immorality,..." } ] }, { "term": "endowment", "usages": [ "The large financial reserve of Harvard, used as evidence of institutional power." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2435.84, "end": 2507.54, "time_label": "40:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, in the year 1940, 90 % of applicants to Harvard got accepted. Now, it's gone way down to 5%. Okay? Stanford is even lower. Okay? So, now it's so hard to get into Harvard. At the same time, look at the cash of..." } ] }, { "term": "ETS", "usages": [ "Education Testing Service, presented as part of the testing apparatus that helped build modern meritocracy." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2378.84, "end": 2435.84, "time_label": "39:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And he was the person who brought in the SAT in order to identify scholarship students. And he made Harvard into the best research university in America. Okay? And he was determined to make Harvard into the best univers..." } ] }, { "term": "Gini coefficient", "usages": [ "A measure of inequality used here to argue America became more unequal despite more college graduates." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2166.36, "end": 2234.22, "time_label": "36:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So now it can import all these German scientists. And that's why it dominates today. So the best universities in the world are now America, or in America, Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. Okay? Now, as universities get bet..." } ] }, { "term": "global meritocracy", "usages": [ "The Harvard-born competition model after it spreads into China and the wider world." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2021.55, "end": 2041.25, "time_label": "33:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So that's how the system is set up. And guess what, guys? Is it different in China? Not really, okay? All right? So the concept of meritocracy has conquered the world. It started in America. It actually started at Harva..." } ] }, { "term": "holistic admissions", "usages": [ "A multi-factor admissions regime presented as character evaluation but used, in Jiang’s account, to preserve elite control." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." } ] }, { "term": "Hunger Games", "usages": [ "Jiang’s metaphor for Yale as relentless zero-sum competition after admission." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1718.4, "end": 1780.8, "time_label": "28:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "because it's all very discretionary, so basically, it's all intuition, okay, they don't have a formula for this, they just think, this guy is interesting, let's just let him in, okay? And it's possible, on an essay, you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1781.66, "end": 1836.34, "time_label": "29:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Have you read the book, The Hunger Games? It is a relentless competition. Because once you're in Yale, you're still competing. Okay? But now you're competing against the most competitive people in the world, okay? So ma..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1837.52, "end": 1894.51, "time_label": "30:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? But you're also competing for graduate school, for law school, for medical school, for scholarships like the Rhodes Scholarship, okay? So Yale, it sounds nice, but once you get in there, from the first day, it's a..." } ] }, { "term": "Ivy League", "usages": [ "In this lecture, originally Protestant religious colleges that later became social clubs for the American rich." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 203.54, "end": 280.78, "time_label": "3:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "place called America it's far away go away there guys and leave me alone okay so the dissenters go as pilgrims to America to build their own theocracy what they believe to be the New Jerusalem or paradise on earth heave..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 280.78, "end": 344.94, "time_label": "4:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Bible so they needed places to study the Bible and so they founded Harvard and then Yale and then Princeton but over time as America became more wealthy it became also less religious and so the Ivy League became social..." } ] }, { "term": "meritocracy", "usages": [ "The belief that people should succeed according to talent, ability, and hard work." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 65.02, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good afternoon class. So this will be our last class before the break. We have a three -week break coming up. I hope that during these three weeks you have a chance to reflect on what we've learned because when we..." } ] }, { "term": "moral hazard", "usages": [ "The idea that people repeat mistakes if they face no consequences; Jiang says it was applied to homeowners but not banks." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2788.195, "end": 2839.8, "time_label": "46:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well, he did do something about it. All right? So his economic team, he appointed quite a few individuals. These are the two most famous. Larry Summers, who was a Harvard graduate as well as a president of Harvard. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2840.44, "end": 2901.66, "time_label": "47:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And then Larry Summers said, no, no, you guys are seeing it incorrectly. We have to save the American economy. The goal is not to save the banks and my friend. The goal is to save the American people and the Ameri..." } ] }, { "term": "open-mindedness", "usages": [ "The willingness to ask questions, learn from others, accept failure, and grow." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 3461.55, "end": 3513.534, "time_label": "57:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a really bad system, because if you're like me, okay, you're just a normal person, your family's not rich or powerful, and you go to Yale and Harvard, it actually makes you fail in life, okay? Let me explain why..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 3513.534, "end": 3574.88, "time_label": "58:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's a great system if you come from a rich family, because this system trains you to go into power. But if you're just like me, and you need to work hard and be talented, and be committed to your passion in order to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 3574.98, "end": 3640.99, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Certainly for me, it was a mistake, because after I graduated, I stumbled through life. For me, it was just failure after failure after failure, because I wanted to succeed right away, okay? I refused to put the time an..." } ] }, { "term": "publicizing the Ivy League", "usages": [ "Making elite universities public/government-controlled to reduce private institutional power and secrecy." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." } ] }, { "term": "real learning", "usages": [ "Learning grounded in honesty, failure, reflection, resilience, and open-mindedness rather than grades or institutional reward." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3249.6, "end": 3312.47, "time_label": "54:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Great question. Okay? So the real solution is to destroy the Ivy League. Okay? And there are different ways you can destroy the Ivy League. The best way is to make them public, for the government to come in and co..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3313.11, "end": 3393.9, "time_label": "55:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to recognize this, be truthful to yourself and focus on real learning. Okay? So what do I mean by that? Okay. So let me, sorry, let me explain. Okay. So success. Okay. So what is success? What is real succes..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3394.46, "end": 3458.6, "time_label": "56:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? The meritocracy has destroyed this system. Why? because now we just want you to focus on grades, okay? And to get good grades, you cannot fail, you understand? Failure now is a problem. If you fail a class, you ma..." } ] }, { "term": "SAT", "usages": [ "Presented as a Harvard scholarship tool for identifying bright students and preserving Harvard’s institutional supremacy." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ] }, { "term": "secrecy", "usages": [ "Admissions refusal to disclose why someone was accepted or rejected." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "time_label": "11:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." } ] }, { "term": "Skull and Bones", "usages": [ "Yale senior society used as Jiang’s prime example of elite secret-social networks." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2647.96, "end": 2714.62, "time_label": "44:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We're just average people. There's no way Harvard controls America. All right? Now, as I mentioned at Harvard, just going to Harvard is not enough. You have to join the elite social clubs, the social secret societies. S..." } ] }, { "term": "soul-stiff personality disorder", "usages": [ "ASR likely renders Jiang’s recurring “dissociative personality disorder”; here it describes people able to split roles and perform contradictory motives." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." } ] }, { "term": "soulless robots", "usages": [ "Jiang’s harsh phrase for elite achievers who adapt to power without independent principles." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2959.93, "end": 3018.62, "time_label": "49:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump. Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump. Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama. It's a lot of people in the American political class. They're just soulless robots. Okay? This m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 3020.77, "end": 3079.64, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All they know is a chief. Okay? So another example of this, this man's name is Johnny Kim. Okay? And he'll probably run for president of the United States one day or at least be a U.S. Senator. Why do I mention him? Gue..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 3080.18, "end": 3141.2, "time_label": "51:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So he has dissociative personality disorder. And, in fact, if you look at most of these really successful people, they do have dissociative personality disorder. And that's why he was able to do all this, because..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 3141.52, "end": 3199.56, "time_label": "52:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And if you don't succeed, your parents will come and complain. Okay? Traumatized children. Okay? Okay? If you look at the rate of mental illness in China, in America, it's just insane. Death of American dream and..." } ] }, { "term": "utilitarian mode", "usages": [ "Fight-or-flight reward focus oriented toward grades, wealth, and strategic advantage." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3662.35, "end": 3702.41, "time_label": "1:01:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, that's a great question. Thank you, okay? All right, okay. So I'm gonna have to go into some psychology here, okay? But psychologists have discovered that we have two modes of being, okay? There's the altruistic m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3703.54, "end": 3708.16, "time_label": "1:01:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But you said that all the psychology is just rain -washing." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3708.36, "end": 3784.32, "time_label": "1:01:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Yes, psychology is not all brain -washing. There's some validity to it, okay? And so I'm not saying this is something like fact. I'm just saying this is a good way to understand how things work, okay? All right? A..." } ] }, { "term": "venture capital firm", "usages": [ "Jiang’s analogy for Harvard/Yale admissions: a portfolio seeking rare enormous upside rather than broad moderate success." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 932.77, "end": 1011.12, "time_label": "15:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, I'll explain later on, okay? All right. So, Harvard is, first and foremost, a venture capital firm, okay? Your investment firm. So, let's pretend you're a venture capitalist, and I'll give you two options, okay? A..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1012.43, "end": 1076.37, "time_label": "16:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, option one is, low risk, really good plan, solid returns, $500,000 a year, okay? Option two is, concept, vague idea, I have absolutely no experience doing any of this, but we could possibly make $1 billion, okay? Wh..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1077.07, "end": 1152.41, "time_label": "17:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We forget everyone else. Okay? That's the Harvard mentality. And that's why they're the most famous university in the world, because they're looking to create as much brand name recognition for themselves as possible. O..." } ] } ], "chronology_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "Dated 2025-09-12 Secret History lecture continues the prior series by moving from social control and dissociation into meritocracy as an American institutional technology.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 65.02, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good afternoon class. So this will be our last class before the break. We have a three -week break coming up. I hope that during these three weeks you have a chance to reflect on what we've learned because when we..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 67.13, "end": 134.11, "time_label": "1:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to explain to you why America has the world's most complicated admissions system. So in China, when you apply to university, you take the gaokao, you take an examination,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 134.11, "end": 203.54, "time_label": "2:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this time in history in England there's a major conflict between religious belief and the king okay the king is head of the Anglican Church which the official Church of England and there's no difference between the Angl..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 203.54, "end": 280.78, "time_label": "3:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "place called America it's far away go away there guys and leave me alone okay so the dissenters go as pilgrims to America to build their own theocracy what they believe to be the New Jerusalem or paradise on earth heave..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 280.78, "end": 344.94, "time_label": "4:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Bible so they needed places to study the Bible and so they founded Harvard and then Yale and then Princeton but over time as America became more wealthy it became also less religious and so the Ivy League became social..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 344.94, "end": 419.47, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "so it started state schools okay state schools what we call A &M okay you may have heard the term Texas A &M okay it means Texas agricultural these schools were built to train farmers engineers and soldiers okay trades..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 419.47, "end": 477.32, "time_label": "6:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the University of Chicago and John Hopkins okay so in the about nineteen hundred you have this system okay of State schools where most people went you're a poor person you go to learn a trade and then you go and get and..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 477.32, "end": 543.75, "time_label": "7:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "hopkins to overtake the ivy league okay and that's why harvard decided to in to institute scholarship programs so he wanted more smart people into its i want to welcome more smart people into its campus okay and this cr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "The 2025-09-12 lecture makes a direct contemporary claim that Harvard-style holistic admissions now functions to manage Asian applicants as earlier character screens targeted Jews.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 543.75, "end": 600.87, "time_label": "9:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for them to get in they have to take a test and also they're in class with smart people people okay so now harvard has a problem on one hand it wants the best students in america but on the other hand it still wants to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 600.87, "end": 661.1, "time_label": "10:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "good we need people who are manly who are strong who are brave we need white people okay so they develop this holistic system and that's why we have the system that we have today where it's not just test scores it's ess..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 661.44, "end": 717.995, "time_label": "11:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Harvard's not interested in academics, it's interested in power. Therefore, it must ensure that the people who come to Harvard are the ones who are most likely to succeed. And that's why it doesn't want all Asians. It w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 717.995, "end": 787.65, "time_label": "11:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They have their own institutional reasons to let you in and they'll never tell you, all right? And the system was created to ensure that Harvard is able to recruit the best students in the world. But what's important fo..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 788.09, "end": 850.01, "time_label": "13:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Basketball player in America, okay? Okay. The third is the best student. And the fourth is the best math genius in the world. And the fourth is three generations of Harvard, okay? So your father, your grandfather, your..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 850.01, "end": 898.96, "time_label": "14:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We don't want professors, we don't want lawyers, we don't want doctors. We want people who will be head of a company. We want people who will become a famous rock star, okay? One people who will become president of the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 900.27, "end": 906.45, "time_label": "15:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Like, does all the admission officers in American college doing this intentionally?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 906.95, "end": 927.81, "time_label": "15:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, that's a really good question, okay? So, if you're the Ivy League, you do this, because everyone wants to go to the Ivy League. But if you're an average school, you're actually just trying to recruit students, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "note": "The lecture cites 2024 billionaire figures while making its 2025 claim that Harvard and Ivy League dominance remains current.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2435.84, "end": 2507.54, "time_label": "40:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, in the year 1940, 90 % of applicants to Harvard got accepted. Now, it's gone way down to 5%. Okay? Stanford is even lower. Okay? So, now it's so hard to get into Harvard. At the same time, look at the cash of..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2507.78, "end": 2575.645, "time_label": "41:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And you have MIT, Stanford, Pennsylvania, Columbia, Yale, Cornell, Princeton. Guess what, guys? Ivy League plus MIT. Okay? Okay. $30 million. Still, Harvard is number one. Okay? All right? So their graduates are t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2575.645, "end": 2647.96, "time_label": "42:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They dominate in terms of philosophers and professors. But they're everywhere. Even Pulitzer Prize winners, billionaires, New York Times bestselling authors, Fortune 500 CEOs, federal judges, senators. Okay? They're eve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054" ], "note": "The 2025 lecture places Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and JD Vance in one current political-class diagnosis, with Vance identified as Donald Trump’s vice president.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2902.16, "end": 2959.23, "time_label": "48:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then they voted for Donald Trump because he promised to destroy the system. Okay? That's why we have Donald Trump. Now, funny story about Donald Trump and Barack Obama. So Barack Obama and Donald Trump were always a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2959.93, "end": 3018.62, "time_label": "49:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So thank Obama for Donald Trump. Without Obama, there would be no Donald Trump. Okay. So it's not just Barack Obama. It's a lot of people in the American political class. They're just soulless robots. Okay? This m..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "note": "The final Obama example returns to 2008, 2012, and 2016 as stages in a single 2025 diagnosis of elite political performance.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3830.086, "end": 3889.65, "time_label": "1:03:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because you're basically an actor. Because you're basically an actor. Harvard wants the best actors in the world. They want people to go for, like, pretending that's something they're not, okay? They want Barack Obama...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "uncertainty_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "note": "Speaker label UNKNOWN on a one-word filler does not affect the packet’s semantic claims.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1158.72, "end": 1159.16, "time_label": "19:18", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "note": "Diarization marks an UNKNOWN one-word filler; no public interaction should be built from it.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3205.25, "end": 3205.73, "time_label": "53:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073" ], "note": "Transcript phrase “soul-stiff personality disorder” appears to be ASR damage for Jiang’s recurring dissociative personality disorder frame.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-ju-8fjjtgxa@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3784.5, "end": 3830.086, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But what's interesting is Harvard wants that, okay? So in your application, you have to say to Harvard, I have a passion. I will die for my passion. But at the same time, I wanna be a billionaire. And I will die trying..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }